Relationship between the earthquake sequences of Tangshan and Xingtai and the three dimensional velocity structure──Discussion on predicting strong earthquakes of swarm-type

In this paper, based on the results of tomographic image of Tangshan and Xingtai areas, the relations between thecharacteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences and their three-dimensional velocity structures are studied.The research results indicate that:① Mosaic distribution of low-velocity bodies and high-velocity bodies, especially the existence of high-velocity bodies with large size in crust are the common basis of development of thetwo earthquake sequences. ② Scale, depth, and heterogeneity of high-velocity and low-velocity bodies are theimportant factors to effect the characteristic of earthquake sequences. ③ The depth of the high-velocity body inTangshan area is less than that in Xingtai area, which is the principal reason why the dominant focal depth and thebiggest focal depth of Tangshan earthquake sequence are less than Xingtai's. ④ The depth of the high-velocitybodies in Ninghe area is more than that in Tangshan-Luanxian area, which lead to the biggest magnitude and epicentral intensity are lower. These results could be helpful for predicting the main shock of strong swarm-typeearthquakes and later strong aftershocks.

Dynamic subduction process of local plate revealed by Ibaraki earthquake sequence of 1982 in Japan

The kinematics and dynamics of plate tectonics are frontal subjects in geosciences and the strong earthquake occurred along the plate boundary result directly from plate movement. By analyzing Ibaraki earthquake sequence, it has been found that the focal fault plane shows a special image of grading expansion along the direction of strike and adjustment along the dip direction respectively. With the consideration of strike, dip and slip directions of focal mechanism, we have confirmed that Ibaraki earthquake belongs to a thrust fault earthquake occurred under the Japan Trench. The cause of the earthquake sequence is discussed in the paper. The study on the temporal-spatial distribution of the earthquake sequence with a time-scale between the year-scale spatial geodetic data and the second-scale moment tensor of the strong earthquake has indicated the dynamic process of Pacific Plate subduction under the Eurasia Plate. According to the average slip distance of earthquake and the velocity of plate movement, it is predicted that a strong earthquake might occur in recent years.

Variation of stress during the rupture process of the 1995 M_L=4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, earthquake sequence

According to the rupture dynamics of earthquakes, variations of the apparent stress and the difference between the static stress drop and the dynamic stress drop during the rupture of earthquakes are analyzed for the July 20, 1995 ML=4.1 Shacheng, Hebei, China, earthquake sequence. Results obtained show that the apparent stress for main-shock is about 5 MPa, and the average apparent stress for aftershocks 0.047 MPa. During the rupture of the main-shock, the dynamic stress drop is approximately 1.6 times greater than the static stress drop with the difference of nearly 2.7 MPa. The dynamic stress drop is less than the static stress drop for all aftershocks with the average difference of -0.75 MPa. Therefore, when the mainshock occurs the final stress on the focal fault is higher than the dynamic frictional stress, corresponding to that the fault is abruptly locked. When the aftershocks occur the final stress on the focal fault is lower than the dynamic frictional stress, corresponding to that the fault overshoots. It can be seen from the above results that there could be some differences in the physic processes between the mainshock and the aftershocks.

A study on the focal parameters of Shidian M=5.9 earthquake sequences in 2001

On the basis of about 300 earthquake wave forms observed in the Shidian MS=5.9 sequences on April 12, 2001 recorded in Kunming Digital Seismic Network, the spectra of shear wave have been used to estimate the focal parameters of these earthquake sequences. The results show that within the magnitude range of 1.5~5.3, the seis-mic moments are 1010~1016 N?m, the corner frequencies are 0.2~0.8 Hz, radii of the focal rupture are 200~2 500 m and the stress drops are 0.1×105~20×105Pa. Through the statistical analyses of variation of corner frequency fc and stress drop ?σ with time, it is discovered that the average corner frequency of the foreshock sequences is obviously lower than that of the aftershock sequences. Contrarily, the average stress drops ?σ of the foreshock sequences are clearly higher than that of the aftershocks. It is considered that these variation characteristics of av-erage corner frequency and stress drops before and after the main shock have index significance to the precursory information before a strong earthquake. The higher stress drops for the foreshock sequences show that the higher shear stresses have been stored in the area of main shock. After the main shock, most of the stresses have been released, so the aftershock sequences show a rupture process of lower stresses.

Characteristics of earthquake sequences in the Kuril Islands

A total of 6 earthquake sequences that occurred in the Kuril Islands region in 1964-1976 has been collected and their characteristics have been analyzed. When these sequences are judged from the spatial relation between their source distribution and the subduction zone, all of them belong to plate boundary earthquake sequences. The parameters of 5 ones among these sequences, which are located just in the subduction zone, are in fair agreement. For these 5 sequences, the major axis of epicenter distribution area is longer; the ratio of major axis to minor axis is high; the focal depths have a greater range; the directions of dip are consistent with the direction of subduction; the dip angles are of moderate value. It is estimated that the only exception is related to the low accuracy of data in the early stage.

The fracture characteristic of the 1989 Datong-Yanggao earthquake sequence

This paper, first, analyzed the seismic activity patterns of the Datong-Yanggao earthquake sequence by 4 stages,finding that three times earthquakes of Mis were located in a same NNE seismically active zone and two times located in 2 NWW seismically active zones. Then the focal-mechanism solutions of 12 earthquakes of M≥4 and 114 earthquakes of M≥1. 0 in various zones were obtained, a tectonic analysis was made for these data, the obtained fracture characteristic of this sequence is: the conjugate fracture combination with the NNE right lateral faults as its trunk and the two NWW left lateral faults as its branches. Finally, it is pointed out that there is an obvious difference between the seismic fracture and the tensile dip-slip tectonic activity of the main body of the seismic region.

Spatiotemporal evolution of the 2021 M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence

Based on the seismic phase reports of the Yangbi area from January 1 to June 25,2021,and the waveform data of M≥4 earthquakes,we obtained the relocation results and focal mechanism solutions of the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence using the HypoDD and CAP methods.Based on our results,our main conclusions are as follows:(1)the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence.The fore-shocks of the first two stages have the obvious fronts of migration and their migration rate increased gradually.There was no apparent front of migration during the third stage,and the occurrence of the mainshock was related to stress triggering from a M5.3 foreshock.We tentatively speculate that the rupture pattern of the Yangbi earthquake sequence conforms to the cascading-rupture model;and(2)the main fault of the M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake sequence is a NW-trending right-lateral strike-slip fault.As time progressed,a minor conjugate aftershock belt formed at the northwest end of this fault,and a dendritic branching structure emerged in the southern fault segment,showing a complex seismogenic fault structure.We suggested that the fault of the Yangbi earthquake sequence may be a young sub-fault of the Weixi-Weishan fault.

The environment shear stress field for the 1976 Tangshan earthquake sequence

The environment shear stress of Tangshan main earthquake and 38 great aftershocks have been calculated by the acceleration data of Tangshan earthquake sequence. The environment shear stress for 52 smaller aftershocks from July of 1982 to July of 1984 have also been calculated by use of the digital data of the Sino-American cooperation recorded by the instrumental arrays in Tangshan. The results represent that the environment shear stress τ0 values have a weak dependence on the seismic moment, only the small and moderate earthquakes will be able to occur in the region with smaller τ0 value and the large earthquakes are only in the region with greater τ0 value. The peak acceleration, velocity and displacement will be larger for the earthquakes occurred in the region with greater τ0 value, Therefore, the measurement of environment shear stress τ0 value for the significant region will play an important role in earthquske prediction and engineering shock-proof. The environment shear stress values for the great aftershocks occurred in the two ends of the main fault are often higher than that for the main shock. This case may represent the stress concentration in the two ends of the fault. This phenomenon provides the references for the place where the great aftershock will occur.

Relocation of the Foreshocks and Aftershocks of the 2021 Ms 6.4 Yangbi Earthquake Sequence,Yunnan,China

An Ms 6.4 earthquake occurred in Yangbi,Yunnan,China on May 21,2021,which has obvious foreshock activity and abundant aftershocks.Based on the seismic observation data recorded by the Yunnan Seismic Network three days before and seven days after the mainshock,a doubledifference location method was used to relocate 2133 earthquakes of the Yangbi sequence.Aftershocks are mostly distributed to the southeast of the mainshock in a unilateral rupture pattern.This sequence exhibits a SE-trending linear alignment with a length of about 25 km,and most of the focal depth is above 12 km.Integrated with the seismic distribution and focal mechanism results,we infer that the strike of the seismogenic fault is about 140°,and dipping to the SW.The fault structure revealed by the seismic sequence is complex,with the NW segment exhibiting a steep dip and relatively simple structure of strike-slip rupture and the SE segment consisting of several branching ruptures.The Yangbi Earthquake is a typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequence,and the mainshock is likely triggered by the largest foreshock.This earthquake occurred in the boundary between high-and lowvelocity anomalous zone,where is susceptible to generate large earthquakes.

The focal depths of the 2008 Panzhihua earthquake sequence and the stress field in the source region

Focal depths of the 2008 Ms6.1 Panzhihua earthquake sequence and tectonic stress field in the source area are investigated.Source depths of 24 earthquakes in Panzhihua earthquake sequence with a magnitude M≥3.0 were determined using the seismic depth phase sPL;additionally,the focal depths of 232 earthquakes were measured by fitting the threecomponent waveforms of the P and S waves.The source depth of the main shock is^12 km.The majority of the aftershocks with magnitude M≥3.0 occurred in the brittle upper crust at the depths range of 12-18 km.Further,the Source mechanisms of the 232events around the Panzhihua earthquake source area were determined,and the results show that the earthquakes have predominantly strike-slip mechanisms in the Dianzhong Block,but display complexity of the focal mechanisms outside and near the boundary of the Dianzhong block.The 232 earthquake mechanisms from this study are combined with the solutions from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog to derive 2D stress field.The inversion results show that the Dianzhong block is predominantly under a strike slip faulting regime and the direction of the maximum principal compressionσ1 is northwestsoutheast (NW-SE)-trending.The distribution is coincide with GPS velocity field.However,orientations of principal stress axes as well as the faulting types change outside and near the Dianzhong block.The results show that the tectonic stress field in the study area is predominantly controlled by the southeast (SE)-trending horizontal movement and clockwise rotation of the Dianzhong block as a result of the eastward movement of eastern Tibetan meeting the old and rigid South China block (SCB).The Panzhihua earthquake ruptured at^12 km depth where the tectonic stress regime is under the SE-direction horizontal compression and the NE-direction horizontal extension.

Researchonpredictionofthefolowingnotice┐ableshocksofearthquakesequences

This paper shows the characteristics of noticeable shocks of 37 earthquake sequences with M ≥6 and the research on the tracing prediction method of them. The result shows that the variation of the strain release of the tracing earthquake sequence with time is an important means for predicting the following noticeable shocks. Predicting ultra late strong aftershocks needs to investigate the regional seismicities.

Research on characteristics of magnitude structure of earthquake sequences

Based on the research on 108 strictly selected earthquake sequences since 1965 in the Chinese mainland, why the magnitude structures of most of these sequences are not in accord with the G R relation has been analyzed and the fitting method with the division of the magnitude structure for the earthquake sequences has been suggested. The characteristic values of this method in the high magnitude interval have mainly been researched, and characteristic magnitude percent f and the slope ratio b 2 of the high magnitude interval, which are different for various sequence types are most obvious. The results show that the N M patterns of magnitude structures for 52.8% earthquake sequences are not in accord with the G R relation from the magnitude less than 80% of the maximum one and that for only 18.5% earthquake sequences show the decrease trend in the high magnitude interval. When b 2 <0 or 0 b 2 <3.0 and f is less, the strong aftershocks in the earthquake sequences are less; when b 2 3.0 for the sequence, several strong aftershocks often occurred; when 0b 2<3.0 and f is bigger, aftershocks with middle magnitude are more in these sequences.

Method discussion for quick response grey prediction of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence

In this paper, we take occurrence process of early strong aftershocks of a main after shock type′s earthquake sequence as a complex grey system, and introduce predicting method for its stronger aftershocks by grey predicting theory. Through inspection prediction for 1998 Zhangbei M S=6.2 earthquake sequence, it shows that the grey predicting method maybe has active significance for the investigation of quick response prediction problems of stronger aftershocks of an earthquake sequence.

Comparison and analysis of the stress field in the source region of Tangshan and Lancang earthquake sequences

The state of the stress fields in the source region is analysed systematically, on the basis of the focal mechanismsof 167 events with Ms≥4. 0 of Tangshan sequence and 163 moderate-small events of Lancang sequence respectively. The result indicates that the directions of the stress field in the source region are generally stable and thevariation is not obvious after the occurrence of strong shock. The dominant orientations of focal mechanisms ofthe aftershocks are consistent with that of the mainshock, there is still a small difference between some mechanisms of aftershocks and the mechanism of mainshock, and the difference decreases as time goes on. The numbers of solutions with dominant direction of Tangshan and Lancang sequences are similar to each other, it indicates that the controls of the strong earthquake sequences from the tectonic stress field are similar to each othertoo. Through the hierarchical clustering analysis of focal mechanism,it is found that the number of clusters ofTangshan sequence is larger than that of Lancang sequence,and their orientations are relatively disordered. Itmay be the cause that the tectonics in the Tangshan region are more complicated than those in the Lancang region.

A priliminary study on the sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi strong earthquake swarm

The sequence characteristics and focal mechanism solution of the Jiashi, Xinjiang strong earthquake swarm are analyzed and studied in this paper. The result shows that before the M S=6.6 earthquake, value h of sequence frequency attenuation coefficient was less than 1, then value h was more than 1. Before occurrence of M S6.0 earthquakes the energy is released either in a continuously strengthened way or a sharply strengthened way, and before M S5.0 earthquakes the sequence frequency shows calm. The study on the focal mechanism solution of the strong earthquake swarm shows that the source faults are mainly in a right lateral, strike slip way and the faults have characteristics of tensor shear.

The space and time distribution characteristics of the shear stress field for the sequence of the Wuding earthquake

Follow Chen and Duda's model of spectral fall-off of ω~3, the dependence of peak parameters of ground motion, peak displacement d_m, peak velocity vin and peak acceleration a_m, upon the environment stress τ_o-values are studied using near source seismic digital recordings for the sequence of the Wuding, Yunnan, M = 6.5 earthquake, in which, as a new thought, the peak parameters are assumed to be related to the medium Q-value. Three formulae for estimating the environment stress τ_o-values by the peak parameters of three types of ground motions are derived. Using these formulae, the environment stress τ_o-values are calculated for the sequence of the Wuding earthquake. The result show that τ_o-values calculated by the three formulae are constant largely, the averages of τ_o are in the range of 5.0-35 MPa for most earthquakes. It belongs to the high-stress earthquakes sequence: the high-stress values are restricted to the relatively small area closely near to the epicenter of the main shock. The fine distribu tion structure for the contours of the environment stress τ_o-values is related closely to the strong aftershocks. The analysis of spatial and temporal feature of To-values suggests that the earthquakes sequence in a rupture process generated at the specific intersection zone of seismo-tectonics under high-stress background.

A preliminary report of the Yangbi, Yunnan, M_(S)6.4 earthquake of May 21, 2021

According to the reports of China Earthquake Networks Center,an Ms6.4 earthquake occurred in Yangbi City,Dali Prefecture,Yun-nan Province,on May 21,2021;the epicenter was located at 25.67°N and 99.87°E with a focal depth of 8 km.Within 5 km from the epicenter the average elevation is 2268 m.

Relocating ruptures of two M6 earthquakes in Zhongba, South-central Tibet in 2004 and 2005 with seismological and geodetic methods

To better understand repeatability of strong earthquakes in previously ruptured zones during one seismogenic period, we studied the rupture zones of the doublet of M6 earthquakes in Zhongba region of southcentral Tibet, China, in 11 July 2004 and 7 April 2005, respectively. We focused on the overlapping degree of two strong quakes’ aftershock areas one week after the mainshocks by using the SQH station in China Seismic Network and a 68-stations temporary broadband seismic array, a part of the international HI-CLIMB project. About 115 local earthquakes were recorded in one week after the mainquakes, and we located these earthquakes by master event relative location （MERL） method. We also used this method to relocate 31 other M3.7 ＋ earthquakes from 1 July 2004 to 1 July 2005. Meanwhile, we studied two mainshocks’ coseismic ruptures with satellite interferometric synthetic aperture radar （InSAR）. Our results show that the ruptured zones of the two earthquakes do not overlapp substantially, either from early aftershock data or from InSAR inversions.

Geneticprogrammingforpredictionofearth┐quakesequencetype

The genetic programming for the prediction of earthquake sequence type was studied, and the reliability for a group of samples was tested. The results show that the performance of the genetic programming is good, and therefore it might be referred as an effective technique for the prediction of earthquake sequence type.