Factors of Adherence to Concurrent Tuberculosis Treatment and Antiretroviral Therapy among HIV-TB Co-Infected Individuals in the East Region, Cameroon in the COVID-19 Era: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Context/Objectives: Tuberculosis (TB) and HIV co-infection is a serious health problem in Cameroon. The problems associated with poor adherence to treatment are on the increase worldwide. This problem can be observed in all situations where patients are required to administer their own medication, whatever the type of illness. The general objective of this study was to assess the factors affecting adherence to treatment among HIV-TB co-infected patients in health facilities in the East Region in the COVID context. Method: A retrospective cohort study before and during COVID-19 was conducted in HIV care units in 13 health districts in the East Region of Cameroon. Data were collected using a questionnaire recorded in the Kobo Collect android application, analyzed using SPSS version 25 software and plotted using Excel. Results: The pre-COVID-19 cohort compared to the during-COVID-19 cohort had a 1.90 risk of not adhering to treatment (OR: 1.90, CI {1.90 - 3.37}) and the difference was statistically significant at the 5% level (p-value = 0.029). Frequency of adherence was 65.4% (140/214). Adherence before COVID-19 was 56.9% whereas during COVID-19, it was 74.3%. Conclusion: The implementation of targeted interventions in the COVID-19 context, using evidence-based data and integrating the individual needs of HIV-TB co-infected patients, improved adherence to concurrent anti-tuberculosis treatment and antiretroviral therapy during the COVID-19 Era.

SIMULATION OF PRESENT CLIMATE OVER EAST ASIA BY A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

A 15-year simulation of climate over East Asia is conducted with the latest version of a regional climate model RegCM3 nested in one-way mode to the ERA40 Re-analysis data. The performance of the model in simulating present climate over East Asia and China is investigated. Results show that RegCM3 can reproduce well the atmospheric circulation over East Asia. The simulation of the main distribution patterns of surface air temperature and precipitation over China and their seasonal cycle/evolution, are basically agree with that of the observation. Meanwhile a general cold bias is found in the simulation. As for the precipitation, the model tends to overestimate the precipitation in northern China while underestimate it in southern China, particularly in winter. In general, the model has better performance in simulating temperature than precipitation.

Mid-Holocene Climate Variations Recorded by Palaeolake in Marginal Area of East Asian Monsoon: A Multi-proxy Study

Traditionally, the mid-Holocene in most parts of China was thought to be warmer with higher precipitation, resulting from a strong Asian summer monsoon. However, some recent researches have proposed a mid-Holocene drought interval of millennial-scale in East Asian monsoon margin areas. Thus whether mid-Holocene was dry or humid remains an open issue. Here, Zhuyeze palaeolake, the terminal lake of the Shiyang River Drainage lying in Asian monsoon marginal areas, was selected for reconstructing the details of climate variations during the Holocene, especially mid-Holocene, on the basis of a sedimentological analysis. Qingtu Lake (QTL) section of 6.92m depth was taken from Zhuyeze palaeolake. Multi-proxy analysis of QTL section, including grain size, carbonate, TOC, C/N and δ13C of organic matter, was used to document regional climatic changes during 9-3 cal ka B.P. The record shows a major environmental change at 9.0-7.8 cal ka B.P., attributed to a climate trend towards warmth and humidity. This event was followed by a typical regional drought event which occurred during 7.8-7.5 cal ka B.P. And a warm and humid climate prevailed from 7.5 to 5.0 cal ka B.P., attributed to the warm/humid Holocene Optimum in this region. After that, the climate gradually became drier. Moreover, comparison of the climate record from this paper with the summer insolation at 30°N indicates that the climate pattern reflecting the Asian monsoon changes was caused by insolation change.

Variation Characteristics of the Large-scale Frost in East Region of the Yellow River of Gansu in Recent 40 Years

[Objective]The research aimed to study variation characteristics of large-scale frost in the east region of the Yellow River of Gansu in recent 40 years.[Method]Based on daily minimum temperature data at 15 meteorological stations over the east region of the Yellow River of Gansu from 1969 to 2008,according to common climatic statistical index of the frost,variation characteristics of the large-scale frost and continuous frost in the east region of the Yellow River of Gansu in recent 40 years were studied.[Result]Since the 1990s,average last frost date in the east region of the Yellow River of Gansu obviously advanced,and first frost date started to obviously postpone.Advancing time of the last frost date was longer than postponing time of the first frost date.Average frost-free period also obviously prolonged.Extremely early first frost date and extremely late last frost date mainly happened in the 1970s and the 1980s.Extremely late first frost date and extremely early last frost date mainly happened after the middle period of the 1990s.Extremely long frost-free period gradually started to appear frequently.In recent 40 years,the continuous frost gradually decreased,and the intensity also declined.[Conclusion]The research was favorable for understanding change characteristics of the frost and climate in the east region of the Yellow River of Gansu,and had important guidance significance for improving prediction capability of the abnormal frost disaster,effectively preventing frost disaster and improving crop yield in the area.

A Modified Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme Geared toward the East Asian Monsoon Region

Representation of cloud microphysical processes is one of the key aspects of numerical models.An improved double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme(named IMY)was created based on the standard Milbrandt-Yau(MY)scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)model for the East Asian monsoon region(EAMR).In the IMY scheme,the shape parameters of raindrops,snow particles,and cloud droplet size distributions are variables instead of fixed constants.Specifically,the shape parameters of raindrop and snow size distributions are diagnosed from their respective shape-slope relationships.The shape parameter for the cloud droplet size distribution depends on the total cloud droplet number concentration.In addition,a series of minor improvements involving detailed cloud processes have also been incorporated.The improved scheme was coupled into the WRF model and tested on two heavy rainfall cases over the EAMR.The IMY scheme is shown to reproduce the overall spatial distribution of rainfall and its temporal evolution,evidenced by comparing the modeled results with surface gauge observations.The simulations also successfully capture the cloud features by using satellite and ground-based radar observations as a reference.The IMY has yielded simulation results on the case studies that were comparable,and in ways superior to MY,indicating that the improved scheme shows promise.Although the simulations demonstrated a positive performance evaluation for the IMY scheme,continued experiments are required to further validate the scheme with different weather events.

Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India

Abstract： Estimation of evapotranspiration （ET） for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation （HARG） with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization （FAO） Penman Monteith （PM） method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim, India. The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET0 by 0.35 mm day^-1 whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model. In addition, this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site. Non- parametric Mann-Kendall （MK） test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trend of eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration （ET0） for the period of 1985 - 2009. Trend of ET0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation. The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing （p ≤ 0.05） trend represented by higher Z-values, through MK test, for net radiation （Rn）, maximum temperature （Tmax） and minimum temperature （Train）, especially in the first months of the year. Whereas, significant （0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05） decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit （VPD） and precipitation （P） is observed throughout the year. Declining trend in sunshine duration, VPD and ET0 is found in spring （March - May） and monsoon （June - November） season. The result displays significant （0.01≤ p ≤0.05） decreasing ET0 trend between （June - December） except in July, exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET0 and other climatic variables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices, in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.

Drought fluctuations based on dendrochronology since 1786 for the Lenglongling Mountains at the northwestern fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon region

The Lenglongling Mountains （LLM） located in northeastern part of the Tibet Plateau, belong to a marginal area of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and are sensitive to monsoon dynamics. Two tree-ring width chronologies developed from six sites of Picea crassifolia in the LLM were employed to study the regional drought variability. Correlation and temporal correlation analyses showed that relationships between the two chronologies and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index （sc_PDSI） were significant and stable across time, demonstrating the strength of sc_PDSI in modeling drought conditions in this region. Based on the relationships, the mean sc_PDSI was reconstructed for the period from 1786 to 2013. Dry conditions prevailed during 1817-1819, 1829-1831, 1928-1931 and 1999-2001. Relatively wet periods were identified for 1792-1795 and 1954-1956. Spatial correlations with other fourteen precipitation/drought reconstructed series in previous studies revealed that in arid regions of Northwest China, long-term variability of moisture conditions was synchronous before the 1950s at a decadal scale （1791-1954）. In northwestern margin of the EASM, most of all selected reconstructions had better consistency in low-frequency variation, especially during dry periods, indicating similar regional moisture variations and analogous modes of climate forcing on tree growth in the region.

High-frequency climatic fluctuations over the past 30 ka in northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region, China

Whether millennial-to centennial-scale climate variations throughout the Holocene convey universal climate change is still widely debated.In this study,we aimed to obtain a set of high-resolution multi-proxy data(1343 particle size samples,893 total organic carbon samples,and 711 pollen samples)from an alluvial-lacustrine-aeolian sequence based on an improved age-depth model in the northwestern margin of the East Asian monsoon region to explore the dynamics of climate changes over the past 30 ka.Results revealed that the sequence not only documented the major climate events that corresponded well with those reported from the North Atlantic regions but also revealed many marked and high-frequency oscillations at the millennial-and centennial-scale.Specifically,the late stage of the last glacial lasting from 30.1 to 18.1 cal.ka BP was a dry and cold period.The deglacial(18.1-11.5 cal.ka BP)was a wetting(probably also warming)period,and three cold and dry excursions were found in the wetting trend,i.e.,the Oldest Dryas(18.1-15.8 cal.ka BP),the Older Dryas(14.6-13.7 cal.ka BP),and the Younger Dryas(12.5-11.5 cal.ka BP).The Holocene can be divided into three portions:the warmest and wettest early portion from 11.5 to 6.7 cal.ka BP,the dramatically cold and dry middle portion from 6.7 to 3.0 cal.ka BP,and the coldest and driest late portion since 3.0 cal.ka BP.Wavelet analysis results on the total pollen concentration revealed five substantially periodicities:c.5500,2200,900,380,and 210 a.With the exception of the c.5500 a quasi-cycle that was causally associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation,the other four quasi-cycles(i.e.,c.2200,900,380,and 210 a)were found to be indirectly causally associated with solar activities.This study provides considerable insight into the dynamic mechanism of the Asian climate on a long-time scale and future climatic change.

Collating Historic Weather Observations for the East Asian Region： Challenges, Solutions, and Reanalyses

1. IntroductionHistoric instrumental weather observations, made on land or at sea from as early as the 17th century （e.g.,Camuffo et al.,2010）,are integral to extending our understanding of the decadal and centennial variations of Earth＇s climate and for comparison with paleo-proxy data.

Economic growth and unemployment in East Asia

Barro and Sala-i-Martin （2004） analyzed the empirical determinants of growth. The data used in this paper consists of panel data of several macroeconomic variables observed for 55 years 0950-2004） in six East Asian countries and regions. Following the implications of semi-endogenous growth theory, the author regressed output growth on the determinants of steady-state income. The estimation and test results suggest the existence of significant relationship between steady-state income and （trend weighted） R ＆ D input both in Japan and South Korea. In addition, following Cellini （1995）, the author also considers cointegration and error-correction methods as the growth regression of East Asian countries. Meanwhile, Chang, et al （2004） derived the conclusion that the decreases in reallocation shocks are main factor in a downward trend in natural rate of unemployment for South Korea. The author extends this analysis using structural VAR to other Asian countries and regions, Japan and Taiwan region. Impulse responses show that the growth of production in Korea and Taiwan reduce unemployment, but, in Japan, this raises unemployment.

Recent Crustal Stress Field and Dislocation Along Seismic Faults in the East China Region

A statistic analysis of the characteristics of recent tectonic stress fields in the East China region was performed using 143 sets of data of single focal mechanical solutions of moderate and small earthquakes and 17 sets of data of composite focal mechanism solutions. The result shows that at present the East China region is controlled by an ENE-（ about 80°） oriented principal compressive and NNW-（about 350°） oriented principal tensile stress field. The effect mode of the principal stress is mainly horizontal and sub-horizontal. In a background of basic consistency of the direction and effect mode of stress field, the existence of different seismotectonic zones may be related to the distribution of major active faults in the relevant areas. It indicates the effect and control of the existing structures on the seismic dislocation. Analysis of focal mechanism solution data of recent moderate and small earthquakes and directions of long axes of isoseismal contours of historic moderate and strong earthquakes and recent felt earthquakes indicates that seismic rupture and dislocation in East China region occurred mainly along the faults in NE and NW directions, and sometimes in NNE, ENE, WNW or near-WE directions. Movement along the seismic faults is mainly strike-slip or nearstrike-slip, with a less oblique slip component. Regional difference in dislocation modes exist along the seismic faults. The historical moderate and strong earthquakes in East China produced mainly NE-trending ruptures and dislocations, while the recent earthquakes produced NW-SE ruptures and dislocations in the land region and NE and NW ones in the sea areas.

Climate Change: Droughts and Increasing Desertification in the Middle East, with Special Reference to Iraq

Climate change impacts on Earth’s atmosphere have caused drastic changes in the environment of most regions of the world. The Middle East region ranks among the worst affected of these regions. This has taken forms of increasing atmospheric temperatures, intensive heat waves, decreased and erratic precipitation and general decline in water resources;all leading to frequent and longer droughts, desertification and giving rise to intensive and recurrent (SDS). The present conditions have led to increasing emissions of (GHG) in the earth atmosphere. All future projections especially those using (IPCC) models and emission scenarios indicate that the Middle East will undergo appreciable decrease in winter precipitation with increasing temperature until the end of this century both of which are inductive to increased dryness and desertification. Iraq as one of the countries of this region and due to its geographical location, its dependence mostly on surface water resources originating from neighboring countries, long years of neglect and bad land management put it in the most precarious and unstable position among the other countries of the region. Modelling studies have shown that Iraq is suffering now from excessive dryness and droughts, increasing loss of vegetation cover areas, increasing encroachment of sand dunes on agricultural lands, in addition to severe and frequent (SDS). These negative repercussions and their mitigations require solutions not on the local level alone but collective cooperation and work from all the countries of the region.

East African Regional Outlook for 2011

IT’S difficult to talk about Southern Sudan in 2011 without bringing up the historic referendum that will determine whether the south of Africa’s largest country will secede from the rest of the country. "The referendum in Southern Sudan is the most important event in the calendar of Africa after the(2010) World Cup(held in South Africa),because it has the consequence of introducing a new member state in Africa,and also has the consequence of returning this region back to war."

The East Asia regional meeting of International Program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI

Supported by the Rockefeller Foundation, the East Asia regional meeting of the international program on rice biotechnology was held in CNRRI Nov 5—8 1996. About 76 delegates from home and abroad attended the meeting and more than 80 papers were presented or posted. The objective of the meeting was to review the status of rice biotechnology since 1995 and to promote the international collaborative activities. The topic involved anther culture, gene isolation and characterization, transfer and expression of foreign genes, etc.

ICRC's Presence in East Asia——An Interview with Mr.Thierry Meyrat—Director of Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC

Q：Our readers are certainly fa- miliar with the ＂Red Cross＂ emblem, but maybe not so familiar with the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the International Committee of the Red Cross （ICRC）. Could you please introduce the Regional Delegation for East Asia of the ICRC？ Besides routine activities, could you please let us know what has been done by the delegation？ Could you please say something about your Chinese partner？

Study on the Recent Tectonic Stress Field in the “Huoshan Seismic Window” Region

The focal mechanisms of 62 moderate-small earthquakes since 1980 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region are calculated with the method developed recently by Snoke, combining the use of the first motion of P, SV and SH waves with their amplitude ratios. Based on these abundant focal mechanisms, the mean tectonic stress field in the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is inverted with the average stress tensor method, and the result shows that the ＂Huoshan seismic window＂ region is horizontally compressed in the near EW direction and horizontally dilated in the near NS direction, which is in accord with statistical results of focal mechanism parameters. We estimate the difference （also referred to as consistency parameter 0） between the force axis direction of the focal mechanism solution and the mean stress tensor, then further analyze the variation characteristics of 0 versus time, and the relationship with moderately strong earthquakes in the east China region. The result indicates that 0 in the ＂ Huoshan seismic window＂ region is in good correspondence with moderately strong earthquakes in the East China region. When 0 is lower than the mean value, corresponding moderately strong earthquakes may occur in the East China region.

Application assessment of GRACE and CHIRPS data in the Google Earth Engine to investigate their relation with groundwater resource changes (Northwestern region of Iran)

In recent years,drought has become a global issue,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.It is without doubt that the identification and monitoring of the drought phenomenon can help to reduce the damages that would occur.In addition,rain is one of the factors which directly affect the water levels of underground water reservoirs.This research applied a linear gradient regression method developed on the basis of GRACE,CHIRPS,and data from monitoring wells to investigate the groundwater storage changes.These data have been analyzed on the Google Earth Engine platform.In order to conduct temporal and spatial analyses,the water levels of the aquifer were generated from the monitoring wells and zoned into five classes.Also,the amount of water storage and rain from the year 2003 to 2017 in the West Azerbaijan Province were investigated using the GRACE satellite and the CHIRPS data,respectively.The results obtained from the GRACE satellite data show that the average water level in the underground reservoirs in Iran had started to decrease since 2008 and reached its peak in 2016 with an average decrease of 16 cm in that year.The average annual decline of groundwater level in the studied time period was 5 cm.A chart developed from the CHIRPS annual rainfall data indicates that the biggest decline in rainfall occurred in 2008,and the declining trend has remained steady.Linear analyses were made on GRACE with CHIRPS results and monitoring wells data separately,from which the correlation coefficients are between 86% and 97%,showing generally high correlations.Furthermore,the results obtained from the zoning of the aquifer showed that in the period of 2004 to 2016,due to the decrease in rainfall and the excessive withdrawal of groundwater,the water levels also decreased.

Techno-Economic Assessment of Non-Revenue Water: A Case Study at AER, GWCL

This study utilizes multiple regression analysis and the technique for computing economies of scale to evaluate the dynamics of NRW in the AER of GWCL. Data on monthly total production, billed consumption, total revenue, total production cost and the volume of NRW spanning the period January 2015 to June 2019, was obtained from the headquarters of AER and used for the analysis. The study showed that NRW averaged 59.3% for the period under consideration, which far exceeds the 25% threshold set by the World Bank for developing economies. It was also established that a fairly inelastic relationship exists between NRW and total revenue. Results further show that resources are not optimally used in the AER as proof of diseconomies of scale was observed.

A Securitization-Perspective Analysis of Water Disputes in the Jordan River Basin

Severe water shortage and uneven water distribution plague countries in the Middle East, especially the Jordan River Basin. As a strategic resource with competitive political nature, water resources are closely related to national security, and become the core resource arena that countries along the river basin compete for. This study argues that under the combined effect of the natural factors of water shortage, the geographical factors of uneven distribution of rivers across boundaries, and the subjective factors of water politics (the unfair setting of rules for water allocation), water disputes in the Middle East have become obstacles to regional peace, and the serious uneven distribution of water is the root cause of regional water disputes. Neither the historical water conflicts nor the existing water cooperation framework has solved the problem of balanced water distribution, which makes the people in basin countries directly face the crisis of survival rights and national security, and lays the fuse for the outbreak of regional water disputes and even future water wars. This study proposes the concept and analytical framework of “water securitization” based on securitization theory, and applies it to the Jordan River Basin, to analyze the reasons for the uneven distribution of water resources in the Middle East. The power-dominant state with asymmetric power in the river basin obtains the status of water hegemony by securitizing water, realizing the self-interested distribution of water resources, whichleads to the uneven distribution of water resources, and ultimately leads to the outbreak of conflicts and disputes. Specifically, it mainly adopts three mechanisms of discursive securitization, operational securitization, and institutional securitization. Looking to the future, it is difficult to successfully resolve water disputes in the Middle East in the short term, and a “de-securitization” approach is particularly important in resolving water disputes and easing regional security tension. Only by adopting a multi-field joint strategy can it provide the possibility to effectively resolve water disputes in the Jordan River Basin.