Characteristics and Preliminary Causes of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall Events over Hainan Island

The characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） extreme rainfall events over Hainan Island from 1969 to 2014 are analyzed from the viewpoint of the TC maximum daily rainfall（TMDR） using daily station precipitation data from the Meteorological Information Center of the China Meteorological Administration, TC best-track data from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The frequencies of the TMDR reaching 50, 100 and 250 mm show a decreasing trend[-0.7（10 yr）^（-1）], a weak decreasing trend [-0.2（10 yr）^（-1）] and a weak increasing trend [0.1（10 yr）^（-1）], respectively. For seasonal variations, the TMDR of all intensity grades mainly occurs from July to October, with the frequencies of TMDR 50 mm and 100 mm peaking in September and the frequency of TMDR 250 mm [TC extreme rainstorm（TCER） events]peaking in August and September. The western region（Changjiang） of the Island is always the rainfall center, independent of the intensity or frequencies of different intensity grades. The causes of TCERs are also explored and the results show that topography plays a key role in the characteristics of the rainfall events. TCERs are easily induced on the windward slopes of Wuzhi Mountain, with the coordination of TC tracks and TC wind structure. A slower speed of movement, a stronger TC intensity and a farther westward track are all conducive to extreme rainfall events. A weaker northwestern Pacific subtropical high is likely to make the 500-h Pa steering flow weaker and results in slower TC movement, whereas a stronger South China Sea summer monsoon can carry a higher moisture flux. These two environmental factors are both favorable for TCERs.

Statistical characteristics of meso-scale vortex effects on the track of a tropical cyclone

This paper examines initial meso-scale vortex effects on the motion of a tropical cyclone （TC） in a system where coexisting two components of TC and meso-scale vortices with a barotropic vorticity equation model. The initial mesoscale vortices are generated stochastically by employing Reinaud＇s method. The 62 simulations are performed and analysed in order to understand the statistical characteristics of the effects. Results show that the deflection of the TC track at t = 24 h induced by the initial meso-scale vortices ranges from 2 km to 37 km with the mean value of 13.4 km. A more significant deflection of the TC track can be reduced when several initial meso-scale vortices simultaneously appear in a smaller TC circulation area. It ranges from 22 km to 37 km with the mean value of 28 km, this fact implies that the initial meso-scale vortices-induced deflection may not be neglected sometimes.

Geometric Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Eyes before Landfall in South China Based on Ground-Based Radar Observations

The geometric characteristics of tropical cyclone（TC） eyes before landfall in South China are examined using groundbased radar reflectivity. It is found that the median and mean eye area decrease with TC intensity, except for the severe typhoon category, and the eye size increases with height. The increasing rate of eye size is relatively greater in upper layers.Moreover, the ratio of eye size change in the vertical direction does not correlate with TC intensity. No relationship is presented between the ratio of eye size change in the vertical direction and the vertical wind shear. No relationship between the vertical change in eye size and the eye size at a certain level is found, inconsistent with other studies. No relationship exists between the vertical change in eye size and the intensity tendency. The eye roundness values range mainly from 0.5 to 0.7, and more intense TCs generally have eyes that are more circular.

DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINSTORMS AND FLOODS IN CHINA

Regional distribution of the rainstorms and floods caused and affected by tropical cyclones are described and the geographicla divisions of China are also given in this paper. The hydrological characteristics of tropical cyclone rainstorms and floods are discussed and compared with that on non-tropical cyclones.

Climatological characteristics of monsoons and tropical cyclone activities over China seas and their influences on hydrological and seasonal structures over the South China Sea

The aim of this paper is to study whether the features of perennial summer over the South China Sea remain constant all the year round or not , and whether there are any seasonal differences throughout the year or not. According to the characteristics of remarkable monsoon and frequent typhoon, the influences of monsoon and tropical cyclone on the hydrological features and the seasonal structure over the South China Sea are analysed by using examples. It may be considered that in the perennial summer area over the South China Sea, it is summer all the year round, but it does not remain constant throughout the year. On the basis of index dates of developing stages for winter and summer monsoons as well as the seasonal characteristics of typhoon frequency,the perennial summer season over the South China Sea may be divided into four periods, namely, early summer, midsummer, sweltering summer and late summer. The concrete classification and the hydrological seasonal feature of each period are discussed.

ANALYSIS OF THE CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF LANDING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EAST CHINA

The intensity, landing time, track trend and intensity variation of tropical cyclones (TCs) afterlandfall are analyzed using the TCs data (of best track from the China Meteorological Administration)between 1949 and 2006 for the western North Pacific and South China Sea. The trend differences of trackand intensity between the TCs that directly land in East China and those making the second landfall in EastChina after landing in Taiwan Island are categorically discussed. The results show that the first kind oflanding TCs are more likely to go northward or turn while the second kind of TCs have a larger tendency tokeep going northwest. The intensity of the first kind of TCs is more persistent than the second one. There isa higher percentage for the intensity to be weakened significantly if the TCs keep going west to northwest orsouthwest after landing.

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON DIFFERENT REGIONS OF CHINESE MAINLAND

The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN routine.The southeast coastline[110 to 122°E)with most landfall TCs was selected as the key region,which was divided into 12 subsections with 1°intervals of longitude.The study period was from July to September in each year.The result showed that the average sustaining time of TCs making landfall on the subsections east of 118°E is longer than those west of 118°E.Before landfall,the averaged TC intensity in the subsections east of118°E is stronger than that west of it.After landfall,however,the difference between the west and east is not significant.The index of destructive potential for the period before/after landfall was defined as TDP1/TDP2.The maximum of TDP1/TDP2 occurred in the subsection of[119,120°E)/[110,111°E).The ENSO impact on the frequency and average location of landfall TC over the whole region at 110 to 122°E is not obvious,but the effect varies with specific subsections.There is little differences of averaged TDP1 in the subsections between different phases of ENSO events,but the averaged TDP2 is larger in the warm events than that in the cold events.The rainstorm days of each station caused by TCs in different subsections were counted respectively.The results suggested that the rainstorm days of the subsections east of 118°E are much more than those west of 118°E.The larger values are primarily distributed at the subsections of[119,120°E)and[110,111°E).

Extraction of Echo Characteristics of Underwater Target Based on Cepstrum Method

The analysis and characteristic extraction of target echo characteristics are important in underwater target detection and recognition. Rigid acoustic scattering components are generally used as major echo contributors with relatively stable characteristic information. Previous studies focus on echo characteristics from a single angle, thereby limiting the amount of extracted characteristic information. This paper aims to establish a full-angle rigid echo components model and overcome the difficulty of the extraction of time delay characteristics of narrow-band acoustic scattering echoes. On the basis of the analysis of the target echo highlight model, the echo characteristics of rigid acoustic scattering components are extracted in the cepstrum domain, and a wavelet process is proposed to enhance the effect of time delay estimation. Experimental data indicate that the extracted time delay characteristics accord with the rigid echo characteristics of underwater target, thereby validating the effectiveness of the cepstrum method.

CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IMPACTING A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT IN SOUTHERN FUJIAN AND ESTIMATE OF MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE

Based on tropical cyclone (TC) data for the period 1949 to 2008 and following the Gumbe-Imethod, Pearson-Ⅲ method and determinacy method, this article estimates the possible minimum centralpressure of TCs affecting southern Fujian where a nuclear power will be located. Results show that theobserved minimum central pressure of TCs agrees well with the results determined with the methods aboveand there is little difference between them (the minimum central pressure is 867.4 hPa and 868.1 hPa,respectively, in a 1,000-yr return period). Established with the theory of atmospheric dynamics, thedeterminacy method yields a result of 867.28 hPa/1000 years, only a little smaller than the result of theprobability method. Because of randomicity in parameter adjustment with the Pearson-Ⅲ method whereasthe determinacy method is theoretically solid and its estimates are the smallest of the three methods, it istherefore reasonable, for security and conservative concerns, to adopt the result determined with thedeterminacy method as the possible maximum intensity of TC (with the central pressure being 867.28 hPa ina 1,000-yr return period).

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALLS AND PASSING THROUGH LAKES IN CHINA

By using the data of 1949 – 2001 (53 years) of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Yearbooks, statistical analyses are performed to study the climatic features of TCs making landfall and then passing through lakes (hereafter referred to as "L-TCs") in China. Results show that L-TCs can sustain a long time over land and the intensity is very strong during the course of landfall. Lakes can noticeably slow down the reduction of TC intensity, with the minimum pressure mostly maintained or decreased and the maximum velocity increased. The middle reach of the Yangtze River has the biggest TC dissipating rate as compared with the other areas where the TC is active.

Research on the underwater echo characteristics by hollow coaxial cylinder-cone assembled elastic shell

For the purpose to research the underwater echo characteristics of elastic shell,the numerical expressions of surface sound pressure and particle vibration velocity are derived based on finite element and boundary element theories.The echo characteristics of hollow coaxial cylinder-cone assembled elastic shell are calculated with simulation and experiment methods to obtained the azimuth angle and frequency characteristics.It's shown in the results that the more quantity of mesh point,the higher precision of calculation.Meanwhile,the magnitude of mirror reflection wave is largest in the echo wave between 20 and 40 kHz,and increases as the scattering cross-section.The backscatter sound pressure of elastic shell has the obvious frequency characteristic.

VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL IN CHINA AT DIFFERENT INTENSITIES

According to the national standard(2006)on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity,TCs are categorized into six intensity types,namely,tropical depression(TD),tropical storm(TS),severe tropical storm(STS), typhoon(TY),severe typhoon(STY),and super severe typhoon(SSTY).Fifty-eight years(1949–2006)of the datasets from the Yearbook of Typhoons and Yearbook of Tropical Cyclones were used to study the variation characteristics of TCs making landfalls in China's Mainland,Hainan and Taiwan islands.The main results are as follows.First,interannual or interdecadal variations in the number of landfalling TCs at different intensities exist.As far as long-term trends are concerned,the TD and TS frequencies show a significant linearly decreasing trend while those of STY show a significant linearly increasing trend.Second, a significant period of 6–8 years exist in the variations of annual landfalling TD,TS,and STS frequencies while quasi-16-year periods are found in the annual TY frequency.Third,TD and TS are generated mostly over the South China Sea,while TY,STY,and SSTY mostly over the waters southeast of the Bashi Channel and the ocean to the east of the Philippines.Fourth,as far as interdecadal trends are concerned,the frequencies of landfalling TD and TS generated over the South China Sea show significant linearly decreasing trends.However,TY and STY show significant linearly increasing trends.

ON THE PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL AND INFLUENCE ON SOUTHERN CHINA USING MONTHLY OLR ANOMALIES FOR PRIME SUMMER

With the OLR data, the landfall and activity of tropical cyclones (TC) in southern China over a 20-year period (1975～1994) are studied. The result shows that the variation of the monthly anomalous OLR is somewhat teleconnected with the TC activity in southern China. The former is used to predict short-term climate for the latter over months with frequent or no TC influence. To some extent, the relationship between the TC activity in southern China and the monthly mean OLR anomalies is dependent on the climatological location of the subtropical high in northwestern Pacific region.

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2004 AND THE CAUSATION

In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2004 and analyzed their causation. Compared with the normal, the annual frequency of TC in 2004 was slightly higher, tropical cyclones in 2004 had a longer life span and occurred in a concentrated period, the source of TC were situated eastward; in all tracks of TC, the recurvature tracks took up larger proportion, the landfall regions of TC were located northward, which concentrated from East China to Japan. The primary causes were revealed as follows. Firstly, the intensity and area of the western North Pacific subtropical high was stronger and larger than usual respectively, and its ridge was frequently in the form of cells and stretched northwestward. Secondly, the convergence of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) was reinforced and the convergence zone moved more eastward than average. Thirdly, the meridionality of the westerlies was larger than average and the cell-shaped ridge formed a saddle region, which is in favor of TC northward motion and recurature.

STUDY ON CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CHINA-INFLUENCING TROPICAL CYCLONES

Analysis of the climatic characteristics of the tropical cyclones that affect China yields several interesting features. The frequency of these tropical cyclones tended to decrease from 1951 to 2005, with the lowest frequency in the past ten years. The decrease in the frequency of super typhoons is particularly significant. The main season of tropical cyclone activities is from May to November, with an active period from July to September. There are three obvious sources of these tropical cyclones and they vary with seasons and decades. Their movement has also changed with seasons. On average, these tropical cyclones affect China for 5.6 months annually and the period of influence decreases in the past decades. An analysis of daily data indicates that the days of typhoon influence are shorter in winter and spring and longer in summer. The frequency of tropical cyclones is the largest over southeastern China, decreasing northwestward. Taiwan is the region that is affected by tropical cyclones most frequently. The average annual precipitation associated with tropical cyclones has also decreased gradually northwestward from southeastern China.

The characteristic differences of tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea

The best track dataset of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific （WNP） and the South China Sea （SCS） from 1977 to 2005 during the satellite era, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis dataset and the extended reconstructed sea surface temperature dataset are employed in this study. The main climatological characteristics of tropical cyclone formation over the WNP and the SCS are compared. It is found that there is obviously different for the locations of tropical cyclone origins, achieving the lowest central pressure and termination points between over the WNP and over the SCS. The annual number of tropical cyclones forming over the SCS is obviously less than over the WNP, and there is a significant negative correlation with the correlation coefficient being - 0.36 at the 5% significance level between over the WNP and over the SCS. The mean speed of tropical cyclone moving is 6.5 m/s over the WNP and 4.6 m/s over the SCS. The mean lowest central pressure of tropical cyclones is obviously weaker over the SCS than over the WNP. The tropical cyclone days per year, mean total distance and total displacement of tropical cyclone traveled over the WNP are all obviously longer than those over the SCS. Tropical cyclone may intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 5 over the WNP, but no tropical cyclone can intensify to Saffir - Simpson hurricane scale 3 over the SCS. The changing ranges of the radii （R15,R16） of the 15.4 m/s winds them and the 25.7 m/s winds over the WNP are obviously wider than those over the SCS, and the median values of the radii over the WNP are also larger than those over the SCS. For the same intensity of tropical cyclones, both radii have larger medians over the WNP than over the SCS. The correlations of annual mean tropical cyclone size parameters between over the WNP and over the SCS are not significant. At the same time, the asymmetric radii of tropical cyclones over the WNP are different from those over the SCS.

Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Extreme Rainfall over China from 1960 to 2019

Tropical cyclone extreme rainfall(TCER)causes devastating floods and severe damage in China and it is therefore important to determine its long-term climatological distribution for both disaster prevention and operational forecasting.Based on the tropical cyclone(TC)best-track dataset and TC precipitation data from 1960 to 2019,the spatiotemporal distribution of TCER affecting China is analyzed.Results show that there were large regional differences in the threshold for TCER in China,decreasing from the southeastern coast to the northwest inland.TCER occurred infrequently in northern China but had a high intensity and was highly localized.The frequency and intensity of TCER showed slightly increasing trends over time and was most likely to occur in August(41.0%).Most of the TC precipitation processes with extreme rainfall lasted for four to six days,with TCER mainly occurring on the third to fourth days.TCER with wide areas showed a northwestward prevailing track and a westward prevailing track.Strong TCs are not always accompanied by extreme precipitation while some weak TCs can lead to very extreme rainfall.A total of 64.7%(35.3%)of the TCER samples occurred when the TC was centered over the land(sea).TCER≥250 mm was located within 3°of the center of the TC.When the center of the TC was located over the sea(land),the extreme rainfall over land was most likely to appear on its northwestern(northeastern)side with a dispersed(concentrated)distribution.TCER has unique climatic characteristics relative to the TC precipitation.

Statistical and Comparative Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal(1977-2018)

A statistical comparative analysis of tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal(BoB) has been conducted using best-track data and wind radii information from 1977 to 2018 issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Results show that the annual variation in the frequency and duration of tropical cyclones has significantly increased over time over the AS and insignificantly decreased over the BoB. The monthly frequency of tropical cyclones over the AS and the BoB shows a notable bimodal character, with peaks occurring in May and OctoberNovember, respectively. The maximum frequency of tropical cyclones occurs in the second peak as a result of the higher moisture content at mid-levels in the autumn. However, the largest proportion of strong cyclones (H1-H5 grades) occurs in the first peak as a result of the higher sea surface temperatures in early summer. Tropical cyclones over the AS break out later during the first peak and activity ends earlier during the second peak, in contrast with those over the BoB. This is related to the onset and drawback times of the southwest monsoon in the two basins. Tropical cyclones over the AS are mainly generated in the eastern basin, whereas in the BoB the genesis locations are meridionally (zonally) distributed in May-June (October-November) as a result of the seasonal movement of the low-level positive vorticity belt. The Arabian Sea is dominated by tropical cyclones that track west and northwest, accounting for about 74.6%of all the tropical cyclones there, whereas the tropical cyclones with a NE track account for only 25.4%. The proportions of the three types of tracks are similar in the BoB, with each accounting for about 33%of the tropical cyclones. The mean intensity and size of tropical cyclones over the AS are stronger and larger, respectively, than those over the BoB and the size of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean in early summer is larger than that in the autumn. The asymmetrical structure of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean is affected by topography and the longest radius of the 34 kt surface wind often lies in the eastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone circulation in both sea areas.

A METHOD OF RAPID CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS OVER CHINA AND ITS APPLICATION

Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in China between May and October each year during the1951-2015 period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type, and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding causes. The results show that the westward and northward types account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In addition, differences between the changes in formation locations of the westward and northward types may lead to significant difference in their landfall intensities.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CATASTROPHIC MIGRATIONS OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN CHINA

In order to clarify the statistical pattern by which landfalling strong tropical cyclones(LSTCs)influenced the catastrophic migrations of rice brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens(stl)in China,the data of the LSTCs in China and the lighting catches of BPH that covered the main Chinese rice-growing regions from 1979 to 2008 were collected and analyzed in this work with the assistance of ArcGIS9.3,a software of geographic information system.The results were as follows:(1)In China,there were 220 strong tropical cyclones that passed the main rice-growing regions and 466 great events of BPH’s immigration in the 30 years from 1979 to 2008.73 of them resulted in the occurrence of BPH’s catastrphic migration(CM)events directly and 147 of them produced indirect effect on the migrations.(2)The number of the LSTCs was variable in different years during 1979 to 2008 and their influence was not the same in the BPH’s northward and southward migrations in the years.In the 30 years,the LSTCs brought more obvious influence on the migrations in 1980,1981,2005,2006 and 2007.The influence was the most obvious in2007 and all of the 7 LSTCs produced remarkable impact on the CMs of BPH’s populations.The effect of the LSTCs on the northward immigration of BPH’s populations was the most serious in 2006 and the influence on the southward immigration was the most remarkable in 2005.(3)In these years,the most of LSTCs occurred in July,August and September and great events of BPH's immigration occurred most frequently in the same months.The LSTCs played a more important role on the CM of BPH’s populations in the three months than in other months.(4)The analysis on the spatial distribution of the LSTCs and BPH’s immigration events for the different provinces showed that the BPH’s migrations in the main rice-growing regions of the Southeastern China were influenced by the LSTCs and the impact was different with the change of their spatial probability distribution during their passages.The most serious influence of the LSTCs on the BPH’s migrations occurred in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.(5)The statistical results indicated that a suitable insect source is an indispensable condition of the CMs of BPH when a LSTC influenced a rice-growing region.