基于24Model-D-ISM的地铁站火灾疏散影响因素研究

为预防地铁站火灾事故,深入了解地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素间的内在联系与层次结构,基于第6版“2-4”模型(24Model)分析63起地铁站火灾疏散事故,充分考虑各个因素之间的交互作用,提取19个影响地铁站人员疏散的关键因素,建立地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素指标体系;采用算子客观赋权法(C-OWA)改进决策试验与评价实验法(DEMATEL),确定地铁站火灾人员疏散的重要影响因素;在此基础上,采用解释结构模型(ISM)分析各个因素间的层次结构及相互作用路径,构建地铁站火灾人员疏散影响因素的多级递阶结构模型。研究结果表明:疏散引导、恐慌从众行为、人员拥挤为地铁站火灾人员疏散的关键影响因素;地铁站火灾人员疏散受表层因素、中间层因素、深层因素共同作用的影响,其中,疏散教育与培训、设施维护与检查、疏散预案等因素是根源影响因素,重视根源影响因素的改善有利于从本质上预防和控制事故的发生。

Japan's experience of energy saving and business model for low-carbon economy

The purpose of this paper is to clarify the questions concerning stimulation of the innovation and the diffusion of energy saving or low-carbon.To do so,this paper explains using two cases of Japan-energy saving innovation after the Oil Shock and the eco points system.For the case after the oil shock,we explain the energy saving trend after the Oil Shock and the factors statistically.Then we put forward the business model for the low-carbon economy.Furthermore,we analyze the case of the eco points system from 2009-2011 in Japan and explain the significance of the business model for diffusion of the low-carbon products.

Global Stability of An Eco-epidemiological Model with Beddington-DeAngelis Functional Response and Delay

In this paper,an eco-epidemiological model with Beddington-DeAngelis functional response and a time delay representing the gestation period of the predator is studied.By means of Lyapunov functionals and Laselle’s invariance principle,sufficient conditions are obtained for the global stability of the interior equilibrium and the disease-free equilibrium of the system,respectively.

Integrated Evaluation Model for Eco-Environmental Quality in Mountainous Region Based on Remote Sensing and GIS

Based on Remote Sensing （RS）, Geographic Information System （GIS）, and combining Principal Component Analysis, this paper designed a numerical integrated evaluation model for mountain eco-environment on the base of grid scale. Using this model, we evaluated the mountain eco-environmental quality in a case study area-the upper reaches of Minjiang River, and achieved a good result, which accorded well with the real condition. The study indicates that, the integrated evaluation model is suitable for multi-layer spatial factor computation, effectively lowing man＇s subjective influence in the evaluation process; treating the whole river basin as a system, the model shows full respect to the circulation of material and energy, synthetically embodies the determining impact of such natural condition as water-heat and landform, as well as human interference in natural eco-system; the evaluation result not only clearly presents mountainous vertical distribution features of input factors, but also provides a scientific and reliable thought for quantitatively evaluating mountain eco-environment.

The 3D simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems based on eco-environmental water demand

Through the study of mutual process between groundwater systems and eco-environmental water demand, the eco-environmental water demand is brought into groundwater systems model as the important water consumption item and unification of groundwater抯 economic, environmental and ecological functions were taken into account. Based on eco-environmental water demand at Da抋n in Jilin province, a three-dimensional simulation and optimized management model of groundwater systems was established. All water balance components of groundwater systems in 1998 and 1999 were simulated with this model and the best optimal exploitation scheme of groundwater systems in 2000 was determined, so that groundwater resource was efficiently utilized and good economic, ecologic and social benefits were obtained.

Eigen-Space Decomposition(ESD)Method for the Design of Internal Model Controller(IMC)from Noisy Input and Output Plant Data

A novel approach to design Internal Model Controller(IMC)is proposed in this paper directly from measuredinput and output plant data,which are assumed to becontaminated by measurement noise.In order to avoidthe complicated structure-identification problem inmost cases,two Finite Impulse Response(FIR)modelsare taken to represent the plant model and the internalmodel controller respectively.Taking account of mea-surement noise both in the plant input and its output,anESD based Total Least Squares(TLS)solution is appliedfor the unbiased identification of the plant model and itsinverse model,the latter constitutes the internal modelcontroller according to the principle that the internalmodel controller approximates the inverse dynamics ofthe plant model.Simulations are given for a testifica-tion.

An Algorithm of 0-1 Knapsack Problem Based on Economic Model

In order to optimize the knapsack problem further, this paper proposes an innovative model based on dynamic expectation efficiency, and establishes a new optimization algorithm of 0-1 knapsack problem after analysis and research. Through analyzing the study of 30 groups of 0-1 knapsack problem from discrete coefficient of the data, we can find that dynamic expectation model can solve the following two types of knapsack problem. Compared to artificial glowworm swam algorithm, the convergence speed of this algorithm is ten times as fast as that of artificial glowworm swam algorithm, and the storage space of this algorithm is one quarter that of artificial glowworm swam algorithm. To sum up, it can be widely used in practical problems.

Eco-environmental spatial characteristics of Fildes Peninsula based on TuPu models

This study applies a TuPu analysis to investigate ecological and environmental aspects of an Antarctic ice-free area, using Fildes Peninsula as an example. The TuPu unit was determined using a vector-grid mixed data model. Information from the eco-environment elements was effectively extracted, and was generalized into different classes by means of data mining technol- ogy. A series of single-factor thematic information TuPu models, such as topography, soil, animal and vegetation, and human activities for Fildes Peninsula were built in this study. The topography TuPu model contained information on elevation and slope. The soil TuPu model involved soil development stages and soil thickness information. The animal and vegetation TuPu model contained the distribution of animals, plant types, lichen cover and lichen height. The human activities TuPu model included popu- lation density and human disturbance index information. The landscape comprehensive information TuPu model of Fildes Penin- sula also was established, and contains twenty-nine landscape units and twelve types of combined environments. The study quan- titatively revealed the spatial morphology and correlation of the regional eco-environment based on the analysis of these TuPu models. From these models, we can draw the conclusion that there is a regular differentiation of eco-environment from the coastal bands to the central hills in Fildes Peninsula, and that the eco-environment condition of the eastern coasts is different from that of the western coasts. The eco-environmental spatial variation also differs greatly from north to south. Based on analysis of spatial correlation, the vegetation in Fildes Peninsula has the greatest correlation with human activity, and has a certain correlation with topography and soil. This research may provide a new technical approach and scientific basis for the in-depth study of Antarctic eco-environments.

Analysis of a Nonautonomous Eco-Epidemiological Model with Saturated Predation Rate

In this paper, a nonautonomous eco-epidemiological model with disease in the predator is formulated and analyzed, in which saturated predation rate is taken into consideration. Under quite weak assumptions, sufficient conditions for the permanence and extinction of the disease are obtained. Moreover, by constructing a Liapunov function, the global attractivity of the model is discussed. Finally, numerical simulations verified these results.

Analysis of an Eco-Epidemiological Model Considering Effect of Harvesting and Prey Refuge

In this work, we analyze an eco-epidemiological model with the disease in the prey, considering a constant proportion of harvesting of either species or a prey refuge. The positive invariant set, the conditions of existence, and locally asymptotically stability of the equilibria are studied using the stability theory of ordinary differential equation. The global stability of border equilibria by constructing Lyapunov functions and permanence of the system by comparison theoremare proved. The numerical simulation further proved the correctness of the theoretical analysis. The result indicates that overfishing would lead to population extinction and a reasonable fishing strategy should keep the coexistence of populations.

应用Tier Ⅰ Eco-Risk Calculator模型评估二嗪磷对鸟类的风险

在室内急性毒性试验的基础上,应用Tier I Eco-Risk Calculator模型对50%二嗪磷乳油对日本鹌鹑的生态风险进行了评价。50%二嗪磷乳油的经口毒性LD50值为每1 kg体重4.61 mg;经食毒性LC50值为每1 kg饲料120.0 mg。模型预测结果表明:直接经口暴露时,50%二嗪磷乳油对鹌鹑具有急性高风险;经食暴露时,其对鹌鹑产生急性风险的可能性也较高。因此,应禁止在鸟类保护区或其临近地区使用二嗪磷,在不影响药效的基础上尽可能减少使用量,改变剂型或使用方法等,以降低二嗪磷对鸟类的风险。

Parameter Extraction for 2-π Equivalent Circuit Model of RF CMOS Spiral Inductors

A novel parameter extraction method with rational functions is presented for the 2-πequivalent circuit model of RF CMOS spiral inductors. The final S-parameters simulated by the circuit model closely match experimental data. The extraction strategy is straightforward and can be easily implemented as a CAD tool to model spiral inductors. The resulting circuit models will be very useful for RF circuit designers.

具有扩散的生态-流行病模型的稳定性分析

讨论一个食饵具有扩散和捕食者具有疾病的生态-流行病模型的稳定性,考虑了由捕食者种群的妊娠期引起的时滞对种群动力学性态的影响。首先,通过分析特征方程,运用Hurwitz判定定理,讨论了该模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的局部稳定性,给出了平衡点附近存在Hopf分支的充分条件;其次,通过构造适当的Lyapunov泛函,运用LaSalle不变性原理,讨论了该模型无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的全局稳定性,从而得到了该生态系统永久持续生存的充分条件。

Evaluation for Applied Materials of Eco-technology

The eco-materials(include natural and artificial material) applied in the eco-technology in internal currently,usually lack of evaluation for applicative conditions.Hence,this study carry on the whole research and identifications to draft the eco-materials of eco-technology.The evaluation models of applied materials for eco-technology were proposed.The quantitative score were obtained by expert’s person evaluation.Three models were proposed to quantify the effects of applied materials on the ecological environment.The statistical procedures were adopted to compare the performance of these materials for eco-technology.The results indicated that the comparison of applied materials can be treated by quantitative analysis.For the further analysis,more evaluated data from expert’s experience need to be collected then the bias of person subject can be reduced.In addition to reach the benefits in the respects of ecosystem,society,economy and function,also practice the comprehensive effects in eco-technology.

A hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian numerical model for sea-ice dynamics

A hybrid Lagrangian - Eulerian （HLE） method is developed for sea ice dynamics, which combines the high computational efficiency of finite difference method （FDM） with the high numerical accuracy of smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH）. In this HLE model, the sea ice cover is represented by a group of Lagrangian ice particles with their own thicknesses and concentrations. These ice variables are interpolated to the Eularian gird nodes using the Gaussian interpolation function. The FDM is used to determine the ice velocities at Eulerian grid nodes, and the velocities of Lagrangian ice particles are interpolated from these grid velocities with the Gaussian function also. The thicknesses and concentrations of ice particles are determined based on their new locations. With the HLE numerical model, the ice ridging process in a rectangular basin is simulated, and the simulated results are validated with the analytical solution. This method is also applied to the simulation of sea ice dynamics in a vortex wind field. At last, this HLE model is applied to the Bohai Sea, and the simulated concentration, thickness and velocity match the satellite images and the field observed data well.

Analysis of axial strain in one-dimensional loading by different models

Different phenomenological equations based on plasticity, primary creep （as a viscoplastic mechanism）, secondary creep （as another viscoplastic mechanism） and different combinations of these equations are presented and used to describe the material inelastic deformation in uniaxial test. Agreement of the models with experimental results and with the theoretical concepts and physical realities is the criterion of choosing the most appropriate formulation for uniaxial test. A model is thus proposed in which plastic deformation, primary creep and secondary creep contribute to the inelastic deformation. However, it is believed that the hardening parameter is composed of plastic and primary creep parts. Accordingly, the axial plastic strain in a uniaxial test may no longer be considered as the hardening parameter. Therefore, a proportionality concept is proposed to calculate the plastic contribution of deformation.

Analytical models for the penetration of semi-infinite targets by rigid,deformable and erosive long rods

A theoretical study is presented herein on the pen- etration of a semi-infinite target by a spherical-headed long rod for Yp 〉 S, where Yp is the penetrator strength and S is the static target resistance. For Yp 〉 S, depending upon initial impact velocity, there exist three types of penetration, namely, penetration by a rigid long rod, penetration by a deforming non-erosive long rod and penetration by an erosive long rod. If the impact velocity of the penetrator is higher than the hydrodynamic velocity （VH）, it will penetrate the target in an erosive mode; if the impact velocity lies between the hydrodynamic velocity （VH） and the rigid body velocity （VR）, it will penetrate the target in a deformable mode; if the impact velocity is less than the rigid body velocity （VR）, it will penetrate the target in a rigid mode. The critical conditions for the transition among these three penetration modes are proposed. It is demonstrated that the present model predictions correlate well with the experimental observations in terms of depth of penetration （DOP） and the critical transition conditions.

Periodic Packing Mode for Trickle-Bed Reactors: Experiments and Modeling

A periodic packing mode of trickle-bed reactor (TBR) for the gas limited reaction was proposed. Hy-drogenation of 2-ethylanthraquinone over Pd/Al2O3 in a laboratory-scale TBR was taken as a test reaction for determining whether the periodic packing mode is advantageous. The effects of operating conditions and packing type on TBR performance were experimentally examined to demonstrate the cause-effect relationships. A mathe-matic model of TBR considering axial dispersion and fractional wetting was developed to quantitatively illuminate the reason of performance enhancement.

Numerical analysis of the failure process of soil-rock mixtures through computed tomography and PFC3D models

Soil-rock mixture （SRM） is a unique type of geomaterial characterized by a heterogeneous composition and a complicated structure. It is intractable for the continuum-based soil and rock mechanics theories to accurately characterize and predict the SRM＇s mechanical properties. This study reports a novel numerical method incorporating microfocus computed tomography and PFC3D codes to probe the deformation and failure processes of SRM. The three-dimensional （3D） PFC models that represent the SRM＇s complex structures were built. By simulating the entire failure process in PFC3D, the SRM＇s strength, elastic modulus and crack growth were obtained. The influence of rock ratios on the SRM＇s strength, deformation and failure processes, as well as its internal mesoscale mechanism, were analyzed. By comparing simulation results with experimental data, it was verified that the 3D PFC models were in good agreement with SRM＇s real structure and the SRM＇s compression process, deformation and failure patterns; its intrinsic mesomechanism can be effectively analyzed based on such 3D PFC models.

Roll System and Stock's Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Shape Control of Steel Strip

The existence of rolling deformation area in the rolling mill system is the main characteristic which dis- tinguishes the other machinery. In order to analyze the dynamic property of roll system＇s flexural deformation, it is necessary to consider the transverse periodic movement of stock in the rolling deformation area which is caused by the flexural deformation movement of roll system simul- taneously. Therefore, the displacement field of roll system and flow of metal in the deformation area is described by kinematic analysis in the dynamic system. Through intro- ducing the lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area, the dynamic variation of per unit width rolling force can be determined at the same time. Then the coupling law caused by the co-effect of rigid movement and flexural deformation of the system structural elements is determined. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling dynamic model of the roll system and stock is established by the principle of virtual work. More explicitly, the cou- pled motion modal analysis was made for the roll system. Meanwhile, the analytical solutions for the flexural defor- mation movement＇s mode shape functions of rolls are discussed. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of the lateral flow of metal in the rolling deformation area has been analyzed at the same time. The establishment ofdynamic lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area makes the foundation for analyzing the coupling law between roll system and rolling deformation area, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the dynamic shape control of steel strip.