An agent-based model of agricultural land expansion in the mountain forest of Timor Island,Indonesia

The Mutis-Timau Forest Complex,located on Timor Island,Indonesia,is a mountainous tropical forest area that gradually decreases due to deforestation and forest degradation.Previous modelling studies based on patterns indicate that deforestation primarily occurs at lower elevations and near the boundaries of forests and settlements,often associated with shifting cultivation by local farmers.This study adopts a process-based modelling approach,specifically the agent-based model,to simulate land changes,particularly farmers'expansion of agricultural land around the Mutis mountain forest.The underlying concept of this agent-based approach is the interaction between the human and environmental systems.Farmers,representing the human system,interact with the land,which represents the environmental system,through land use decision-making mechanisms.The research was conducted in the Community Forest of the Timor Tengah Utara District,one of the sites within the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex with the highest deforestation rate.Land use change simulations were performed using agent-based modelling from 1999 to 2030,considering the socio-economic conditions of farmers,spatial preferences,land use decisions,and natural transitions.The results revealed that the agricultural area increased by 14%under the Business as Usual scenario and 5%under the Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation scenario,compared to the initial agricultural area of 245 hectares.The probability of farmers deciding to extend agricultural activities was positively associated with the number of livestock maintained by farmers and the size of the village area.Conversely,the likelihood of farmers opting for agricultural extensification decreased with an increase in the area of private land and the farmer's age.These findings are crucial for the managers of the Mutis-Timau Forest Complex and other relevant stakeholders,as they aid in arranging actions to combat deforestation,designing proper forest-related policies,and providing support for initiatives such as reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation programs or further incentive schemes.

Unveiling the impact and mechanism of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience

Enhancing the economic resilience of agriculture is essential for promoting sustainable and high-quality agricultural development.The emergence of digital technology has created new opportunities in this field.However,existing research predominantly focuses on traditional agricultural factors and technologies.Therefore,the impact of digital technology on agricultural economic resilience within the broader context of the“production-operation-industry”system in agriculture has not been comprehensively explored.To bridge this gap,this study analyzes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020.It employs the static Van Dorn’s law and a dynamic spatial panel model to examine how digital technology empowers agricultural resilience.The findings indicate a continuous strengthening of digital technology development in China,albeit with significant polarization and spatial imbalances.Moreover,the resilience of the agricultural economy undergoes notable fluctuations,initially narrowing and subsequently displaying an upward trend.Digital technology clearly plays a pivotal role in empowering resilience through agricultural scale operation,industrial transformation,and technological progress.Its impact,particularly on the promotion of resilience in the eastern region and non-grain-producing areas and on high-level agricultural economies,also shows regional and technological variations.

The Extreme Machine Learning Actuarial Intelligent Agricultural Insurance Based Automated Underwriting Model

The paper presents an innovative approach towards agricultural insurance underwriting and risk pricing through the development of an Extreme Machine Learning (ELM) Actuarial Intelligent Model. This model integrates diverse datasets, including climate change scenarios, crop types, farm sizes, and various risk factors, to automate underwriting decisions and estimate loss reserves in agricultural insurance. The study conducts extensive exploratory data analysis, model building, feature engineering, and validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Additionally, the paper discusses the application of robust tests, stress tests, and scenario tests to assess the model’s resilience and adaptability to changing market conditions. Overall, the research contributes to advancing actuarial science in agricultural insurance by leveraging advanced machine learning techniques for enhanced risk management and decision-making.

Construction of Agricultural Tourism Product Model Based on Experience Economy

Experience economy is a new economic development tendency after agricultural economy, industrial economy and service economy. Tourism consumption shows new characteristics in experience economy. Agricultural tourism product coincides with these characteristics, it is necessary to establish a model of agricultural tourism products based on experience economy. It is a model of wide range, strong personality and participation.

Urban Agricultural Development from the Perspective of Circular Economy——An Analysis of Sino-Singapore Eco-city Model in Tianjin

The connotation and development of circular economy and circular agriculture are illustrated from the perspective of circular economy.Take the duplicable Sino-Singapore Eco-City in Tianjin as a case to analyze the background,significance and features of building Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City and point out the sustainable developmental orientation of the "three harmony and three capabilities" as well as its inspiration on the development of Tianjin urban agriculture from the aspects of water-saving,land-saving and energy-saving.Under the direction of circular economy theory,the enhancement of economical utilization of agricultural resources and resource utilization of agricultural wastes has positive effects on improving urban environment:decentralize organic solid wastes from sewage cycle system;further study the physiological and biochemical mechanism of increasing yield and income of ecological agriculture;bring urban agriculture into city land utilization planning and city development planning.

Relationship Between Agricultural Credits and Agricultural Economy Based on Error Correct Model in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.

Agricultural Ecotourism and Its Model

Agricultural eco-tourism is a new form of tourism, which is an organic combination of agricultural ecology and eco-tourism. In recent years, the state has paid more and more attention to the development of agriculture. It has become a new mode of tourism development by linking ecological tourism with the development of agriculture. Based on the concept of rural ecotourism, this paper focuses on the typical rural ecotourism model in China, and analyzes the planning mechanism for constructing these development models, so that people can better understand the agro-ecological tourism model. Scientific, rational and feasible, we strive to establish a coordinated development mechanism between the agricultural economy, the ecological environment and the tourism culture.

The Study on Agricultural Economy Forecasting using Grey Relationship Model

Thinking of grey group model is the improvement on the traditional grey model. It does not merely use a grey model as the ultimate basis, but takes full account of the traditional GM （1,1） model and the GM （1, n） model and join two predictions to form a prediction interval. So, the results are more reasonable and more realistic requirements and have strong guidance and reference. The farther the forecast period is, the worse the forecast is. The forecasts in the forecast period of 1-3 Years are the best, but the results of long-term are only as a reference value and the guidance data. Therefore, as the forecast period goes on, rolling grey model is used to increase accuracy.

The Effects of Agricultural Informatization on Agricultural Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis Based on Regression Model

This article selects some major factors influencing the agricultural economic growth are selected,such as labor,capital input,farmland area,fertilizer input and information input.And it selects some factors to explain information input,such as the number of website ownership,types of books,magazines and newspapers published,the number of telephone ownership per 100 households,the number of home computers ownership per 100 households,farmers' spending on transportation and communication,culture,education,entertainment and services, and the total number of agricultural science and technology service personnel.Using regression model,this article conducts regression analysis of the cross-section data on 31 provinces,autonomous regions and municipalities in 2010.The results show that the building of information infrastructure,the use of means of information,the popularization and promotion of knowledge of agricultural science and technology,play an important role in promoting agricultural economic growth.

Optimized Allocation Model for Regional Agricultural Fertilizer Resources in Southern Xinjiang from the Perspective of Sustainable Development

[Objective] This study was to establish an optimized model for the allocation of agricultural fertilizer resources in Southern Xinjiang from the perspective of sustainable development.[Method] An optimized model for the allocation of agricultural fertilizer resources was established based on their allocation structure.Combined with the actual agricultural production in Aksu areas of Southern Xinjiang,by establishing a rational evaluation index system,under the premise of considering the planting area constraints,the total water resources constraints and the security constraints of food production,we established the empirical optimal allocation model of the regional agricultural fertilizer resources in Aksu area of Southern Xinjiang.Moreover,we solved the model by using the search algorithm of computer and lingo programming.[Result] The increased economic benefit was near to 1.8 billion Yuan by adopting the optimal allocation methods,with a relative increment of about 34.4%.[Conclusion] Our results provided theoretical basis for achieving the sustainable development of agricultural economy in Southern Xinjiang.

Construction of Value Models of Consumer Creation for Agricultural Products Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)

With the increased competition of modern economy and globalization,consumer creation which based on the analysis of consumer behavior was more and more attentioned and respected by business.Based on the meaning and characteristics of agricultural product consumer creation,index system of value model of agricultural product consumer creation was put forward through analytical hierarchy process（AHP）.The weights of the indicators and related indicators of impact on the value were analyzed,and value models of agricultural product consumer creation were constructed to provide ideas for development of agricultural product consumer market and research of consumer value.Consumer creation was constructed to provide ideas for development of agricultural product consumer market and research of consumer value.

The Operation Mechanism of Agricultural Products Supply Chain and Profit Allocation Model in the Context of Asymmetric Information

The research performed analysis on causes of asymmetric information of agricultural product supply chain and made conclusion on operation mechanism and characteristics of supply chain based on asymmetric information. Finally, the research detailed profit sharing of agricultural product supply chain in the context of asymmetric information and proposed suggestions, providing references of pricing and profit sharing of supply chains of agricultural products.

Plights and Outlet:Environmental Problem Analysis of Agricultural Eco-tourism

As agricultural eco-tourism development played a vital role in promoting rural economic and social development and constructing new harmonious countryside,the paper had analyzed environmental problem produced during its development,pointed out that blind development of agricultural eco-tourism had seriously destroyed resources and ecological environment and that tourist infrastructure construction and urbanization had ruined rural unique natural landscape.In view of current situation of environment,it also studied reasons causing environmental disruption,which lied in insufficient guidance and support of government,deficient scientific development planning and management system,and poor environmental consciousness of tourist operators and tourists.On this basis,it summarized that agricultural eco-tourism development should follow principles of sustainable development,synchronization between development and protection,and coordination between tourism development and environmental protection.It concluded proper ways to develop agricultural eco-tourism,and emphasized that it should draw up scientific and reasonable development planning,enhance government's macro-administration,establish and perfect ecological compensation mechanism,and strive to cultivate people's environmental awareness.

A New Model of Recycling Agricultural Production

[Objective] The aim was to research production model of recycling agricul- ture. [Method] The production model of recycling agriculture integrating planting and breeding was explored on basis of pig raising, and maize and peanut planting, with consideration of existing problems of planting and breeding integration in China. [Result] Ecological and economic benefits of pig farms and planting bases increased significantly, and all indices improved in different degrees. [Conclusion] The research provides valuable references for pig raising in China.

Research on Comparative Advantage and Typical Models of Circular Agriculture Economy in Eastern and Mid-China Region

Developing agricultural circular economy is the important measures of relieving the pressure on agricultural resources, preserving the ecological environment and promoting the sustainable development of agriculture and rural economy. Based on the idea of circulation of agricultural research as the breakthrough point, the research firstly detailed the concept and scientific connotation of circular egdculture in an all-round way and described and analyzed the advantages and conditions of the development of circular agriculture in eastern and middle regions of China from three aspects including resources endowment, conditions of economic development and industrial base conditions. Furthermore, the research analyzed the model char- actedstics and summarized the successful ex^dence to provide a reference for promoting the models with consideration of Taihu Lake Basin in South of Jiangsu, Yi- meng mountain areas in Southeast of Shandong and hills and mountains region in northwest Henan. Finally, the reseach put forward the development orientation of agricultural circular economy and countermeasures and suggestions to further enhance the level of development.

Study on Environmental Protection during Agricultural Eco-tourism Development in Guangzhou City——From the Perspective of Perfecting Environmental Responsibility System of Tourism Company

By taking Guangzhou City for example,a series of environmental problems brought by agricultural ecological tourism were analyzed from the perspective of environmental degradation caused by that tourism company failed to take environmental responsibility.Based on economic development and environmental protection,some suggestions on environmental protection were proposed from the perspective of perfecting environmental responsibility of tourism company in order to realize win-win of economic development and environmental protection.

Research on the Low-carbon-high-value Agriculture Technology in the Comprehensive Improvement of Intra-county Environment Pollution——Taking the Development of Cultivation and Breeding Industry in the Ecological Cyclic Agricultural Garden in Shaoshan Irri

The comprehensive improvement strategy of intra-county environment pollution in the city and countryside was searched.By the research method which combined the microscopic view,the macroscopic view with the dynamic perspective,the seriousness of rural water quality,soil and atmospheric pollution in Xiangxiang,Xiangtan and the surrounding areas in Shaoshan irrigated area was revealed.The control measure which was 'four-dimensional pollution in the city and countryside'—— low-carbon-high-value agriculture and the technology innovation was proposed.The low-carbon-high-value technology innovation industrialization demonstration in three parts which included the pre-production,mid-production and post-production deep-processing of cultivation and breeding industry in the ecological cyclic agricultural garden in Shaoshan irrigated area was the driving force.We tried to propel the low-carbon ecological cultivation and breeding industry which included the paddy rice,grass,tree,medicinal herbs and pig,cow,chick,duck,fish.We wanted to relieve the structural unbalance of previous cultivation and breeding industry,'cheap grain hurting the farmers' and the short-leg problem of social-economic-ecological benefit.The results showed that the low-carbon-high-value agricultural system was a poly-generation technology system which promoted the multi-level and grading utilization,saved the energy,reduced the consumption and cleaned the production based on the ecology.

The Unified Concept of Eco-agricultural Tourism

The origination of 'eco-agricultural tourism' concept is introduced,similar concepts are discriminated,and a unified concept is suggested with proper reasons.

Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.