Impacts of multi-scenario land use change on ecosystem services and ecological security pattern: A case study of the Yellow River Delta

The Yellow River Delta(YRD), a critical economic zone along China's eastern coast, also functions as a vital ecological reserve in the lower Yellow River. Amidst rapid industrialization and urbanization, the region has witnessed significant land use/cover changes(LUCC), impacting ecosystem services(ES) and ecological security patterns(ESP). Investigating LUCC's effects on ES and ESP in the YRD is crucial for ecological security and sustainable development. This study utilized the PLUS model to simulate 2030 land use scenarios, including natural development(NDS), economic development(EDS), and ecological protection scenarios(EPS). Subsequently, the InVEST model and circuit theory were applied to assess ES and ESP under varying LUCC scenarios from 2010 to 2030. Findings indicate:(1) Notable LUCC from 2010 to 2030, marked by decreasing cropland and increasing construction land and water bodies.(2) From 2010 to 2020, improvements were observed in carbon storage,water yield, soil retention, and habitat quality, whereas 2020–2030 saw increases in water yield and soil retention but declines in habitat quality and carbon storage. Among the scenarios, EPS showed superior performance in all four ES.(3) Between 2010 and 2030, ecological sources, corridors, and pinchpoints expanded, displaying significant spatial heterogeneity. The EPS scenario yielded the most substantial increases in ecological sources,corridors, and pinchpoints, totaling 582.89 km^(2), 645.03 km^(2),and 64.43 km^(2), respectively. This study highlights the importance of EPS, offering insightful scientific guidance for the YRD's sustainable development.

Optimization of water-urban-agricultural-ecological land use pattern:A case study of Guanzhong Basin in the southern Loess Plateau of Shaanxi Province,China

Extensive land use will cause many environmental problems.It is an urgent task to improve land use efficiency and optimize land use patterns.In recent years,due to the flow decrease,the Guanzhong Basin in Shaanxi Province is confronted with the problem of insufficient water resources reserve.Based on the Coupled Ground-Water and Surface-Water Flow Model(GSFLOW),this paper evaluates the response of water resources in the basin to changes in land use patterns,optimizes the land use pattern,improves the ecological and economic benefits,and the efficiency of various spatial development,providing a reference for ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the land use pattern in the Guanzhong Basin should be further optimized.Under the condition of considering ecological and economic development,the percentage change of the optimum area of farmland,forest,grassland,water area,and urban area compared with the current land use area ratio is+2.3,+2.4,-6.1,+0.2,and+1.6,respectively.The economic and ecological value of land increases by14.1%and 3.1%,respectively,and the number of water resources can increase by 2.5%.

Integrating landscape ecological principles and land evaluation for sustainable land use

Many existing methods for appraisal of agricultural areas and farming systems are short of dynamics and spatial analysis. The main objective of this paper is to merge approaches in classical land evaluation, largely based on soil science, and newer approaches in landscape ecology, which are rather based on the relationships between spatial patterns (physiography, land use and farming system design, vegetation etc.) and processes (farming activities, scale changes, geomorphological processes, bio ecological processes). Rapid changes in rural areas have an impact on both processes and patterns. Planning for sustainable use of these areas should include the assessment of the interrelations between these patterns and processes.

Geographical Information System-Based Assessment of Ecological Security in Changbai Mountain Region

Ecological security defined as the creation of a condition where the physical surroundings of a community provide for the needs of its inhabitants without diminishing its natural stock,which is important for regional security and social stability.In recent years,land use patterns in the Changbai Mountain region have changed significantly with intensive human activities,and consequently led to increasing problems in regional ecological security.Based on the Pressure-State-Impact-Response(PSIR) model and the mathematical method of catastrophe progression supported by geographical information system(GIS),the ecological security situation of the study area under land use and cover change(LUCC) was evaluated.The results indicated that the ecological security in Changbai Mountain region varied nonlinearly,which got better from 1990 to 2000 but became worse from 2000 to 2007,the ecological security levels in Changbai Mountain region were mainly medium and medium to low during the past 17 years,with higher values of Ecological Security Index(ESI) in the central region and lower values in the east and west,the ecological security situation was more serious in the settlements and river valleys,where the LUCC was most remarkable.

Land Use Change During 1960～2000 Period and itsEco-environmental Effects in the Middle and UpperReaches of the Yangtze River:a Case Study in YiliangCounty,Yunnan,China

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) is a focus of the research of global environmental changes. The middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River, which are the most ecologically fragile mountainous area in China as well as one of the areas in China with most notable LUCC, have been on the Chinese Government's list of priority areas for ecological restoration. This paper is to reveal the trend of LUCC and the ecological degradation arising from it, and to provide a basis for the future sustainable use of land resources in the region based on a detailed analysis of Yiliang County. Based on the county's land use/cover maps in 1960, 1980 and 2000 drawn with the aid of aerial photograph interpretation, field investigation and GIS based spatial-temporal data analysis, LUCC during 1960~2000 period and the ecological degradation arising from it were analyzed. Using the Markv model, the paper brings out a forecast of what the county's LUCC would be like if the county's current land use continues, as well as the reasons and countermeasures for restoring degraded ecosystems.

GIS-based Ecological Control Line Planning of Landscape City

Against the background of accelerated urbanization in China, the expansion of urban land uses, especially the construction of development zones have incorporated urban development land uses, and more ecological spaces have been invaded by construction activities. However, the maintenance of urban ecological security, scientificity, integrality and continuity of ecosystem, as well as scientificity of the defining methods and the effective supervision of the basic ecological control line have become bones of contention. This paper, from the perspective of "anti-planning", synthesized the theories and methods such as urban-rural planning, ecology and GIS, coupled ecological sensitivity assessment and ecological security pattern to define the basic ecological control lines of the planning area in Anqing City. The basic ecological control line area includes ecological baseline area and ecological development area. Management and control strategies of basic ecological control line were elaborated from the following aspects: implementation of the basic ecological control line, protection and utilization of ecological resources within the lines, solutions to existing construction land within the lines, adjustment mechanism and implementation guarantee mechanism of basic ecological control line.

Grain Production Driven by Variations in Farmland Use in China:An Analysis of Security Patterns

自从1978年改革开放以来,随着经济的迅速发展,中国的耕地利用格局发生了很大的变化。耕地数量和质量的变化直接导致粮食生产的变动。本文利用来自政府部门的农业统计数据,分析了1978-2004年间中国耕地利用水平的时空动态格局,并通过构建"粮耕弹性系数"来反映耕地利用变化与粮食生产的互动关系。研究结果表明:耕地投入的增加和质量的提升在一定程度上缓解了1978年以来我国耕地资源严重流失给粮食生产安全带来的压力;自改革开放以来,中国耕地利用水平呈现由经济快速发展带来的普遍性提升局面,并随着经济发展程度由东南沿海向内陆递减,耕地利用水平的提升速率也呈现由东南沿海向内陆梯级递减态势。然而,耕地集约利用程度的不断提升,并不一定会带来粮食产量的持续稳定增长。耕地集约利用增长的边际效用递减特性,使得中国粮食生产安全的保障已逐步由耕地集约利用水平的提升转向了耕地面积的保护,由此导致耕地资源的数量成为了左右粮食生产安全的关键,这也为当今中国制定严格的耕地保护目标和战略提供了现实的科学依据。

“生态—效率”约束下工业用地减量化空间识别——以江苏省沿江经济带为例

研究目的:以生态保护与用地效率双重约束视角识别低效工业用地,探索其退出与利用转型路径,为工业用地减量化治理提供新思路。研究方法:基于“源地识别—廊道提取”研究范式构建区域生态安全格局,考虑生境隔离度评价并耦合低效工业用地评价构建工业用地分类治理四象限模型,综合判定江苏省沿江经济带工业用地减量化区域。研究结果:(1)江苏省沿江经济带共有52处生态源地,分布零散,呈现“江南多于江北”的空间格局,总面积3007.65 km~2,生态廊道共有134条,总长度2934.78 km,呈“西南多东北少”的分布格局。(2)无锡市、苏州市、南京市、常州市工业用地布局与生态用地之间冲突较为显著。(3)亟需腾退的工业用地总面积为82.10 km~2,集中分布于南京栖霞及江宁区、无锡惠山区、常州宜兴市、南通如东县、镇江京口区。研究结论:采用“生态—效率”双重约束能兼顾生态保护约束和效率提升需求,可以有效识别区域低效工业用地,为推进工业用地减量化提供科学依据。

兰州市土地利用景观格局指数的粒度效应

【目的】分析确定兰州市景观格局的最适合粒度,为生态安全格局的构建提供科学依据。【方法】通过地理信息系统(ArcGIS)识别与划分土地利用斑块;等权叠加单因子影响因素并使用夜间灯光数据叠加修正确定综合生态贡献斑块;采用景观格局分析软件(Fragstats)在景观水平上确定并分析21个景观指数对粒度变化的响应程度。【结果】景观格局指数对粒度变化的响应大体呈现3种趋势:1)效应曲线与函数拟合度高,无明显拐点。2)效应曲线增幅较缓,存在明显拐点。3)效应曲线变化幅度强烈,但整体变化趋于增长或下降,存在明显拐点。【结论】分析得出土地利用类型斑块和生态贡献等级斑块的第一尺度域分别为80~120 m和50~160 m。综合分析得出适合兰州市景观分析的粒度为80 m。

基于土地利用模拟的生态保护红线划定方法研究——以广州市为例

针对生态保护红线划定精度低、无法量化等问题,提出来一种基于MCR-PLUS模型的生态保护红线划定方法。该方法基于研究区内生态系统服务价值的演变规律构建生态安全格局,利用生态安全格局进行生态保护红线的初步划定。通过对研究区未来土地利用模拟预测结果,识别研究区生态保护红线易被侵蚀的风险区域,对初步划定的生态保护红线进行优化调整,最终得到研究区生态保护红线的最终划定范围。结果表明,基于MCR-PLUS模型的生态保护红线划定方法可以用量化的指标划定研究区生态保护红线范围,划定的生态保护红线具有较高的精度。

耦合MOP-PLUS模型的库车市LUCC趋势与景观生态安全评价

探究干旱区典型绿洲城市景观生态安全时空演变,设置经济、生态、景观生态安全、可持续(MOP)4种情景,预测土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)趋势,评价2030年景观生态安全,以期缓解城市建设开发与生态环境保护的矛盾。基于1990-2020年的土地利用数据,采用遥感、地理信息系统(GIS)网格等方法构建景观生态安全评价模型,以揭示库车市近30 a景观生态安全空间分布特征与变化趋势,并通过耦合MOP-PLUS模型预测库车市2030年景观生态安全时空演变规律。结果表明:1990-2020年,研究区耕地、林地、建设用地面积总体呈增加趋势,草地、水域面积总体呈现减少趋势,地类转换主要集中于耕地、草地与未利用地;景观生态安全值(ESI)空间集聚状态明显,但集聚程度有所下降,景观生态安全等级以中等、较高、高生态安全为主,占研究区总面积60.15%~64.87%;相较于2020年,2030年4种情景下的ESI变化幅度较大,主要集中于南部人口聚集地。

滇东南喀斯特山区生态安全格局构建——以文山州为例

构建生态安全格局是优化区域国土空间布局的重要举措。以滇东南典型喀斯特地区——文山州为研究区,基于生态系统服务重要性评估结果识别生态源地,利用生态环境敏感性评估结果修正基础阻力面,通过电路理论提取生态廊道与生态节点,并提出区域生态安全格局优化建议。结果表明:1)文山州生态源地面积总计11435.22 km^(2),占全市总面积的36.34%,主要土地利用类型为林地。2)共提取出95条生态廊道,生态廊道累计长达1423.91 km,平均长度为14.98 km,长生态廊道多位于研究区西部的丘北县、砚山县、文山市。3)识别生态夹点39处,面积125.34 km^(2);识别低障碍区15处,面积9.60 km^(2);识别高障碍区28处,总面积36.23 km^(2)。研究结果可为文山州土地资源可持续利用和区域生态保护修复工作提供借鉴参考。

基于生态安全格局视角的陆域生态保护红线评估——以广东省为例

为科学评估广东省陆域生态保护红线划定范围的空间及生态保护效应,进一步筑牢南粤生态安全屏障,基于生态保护红线的自然生态系统服务功能保障、人居环境安全保障和生物多样性保护维护3大内涵,采用生态安全格局建设和景观格局分析方法。首先,基于生态系统服务功能重要性和生态敏感性等评价方法构建生态保护重要性评价体系,识别生态源地,评估陆域生态保护红线划定范围的空间效应;其次,运用最小累积阻力模型和电路理论提取生态廊道,评估陆域生态保护红线连通性和生态保护效应;最后,基于景观格局分析方法,从空间结构整体性角度横向比较城市尺度陆域生态保护红线破碎度与连通度。结果表明:1)从生态保护重要性看,广东省陆域生态保护红线保护规模合理,基本实现应划尽划、应保尽保,较为全面地保障了全省生态系统和人居环境安全;2)从空间分布格局看,陆域生态保护红线与生态源地空间分布一致性较好,重要的生态源地均已纳入陆域生态保护红线范围,但生态保护红线廊道连通性不足;3)从空间结构整体性看,部分区域陆域生态保护红线斑块破碎度较高,粤北地区各地级市生态保护红线景观连通性优于珠三角地区。

Ecological security pattern-based simulation for land use structure change:a case study in Ezhou City,China

The ecological environment quality is an important constraint and an optimization objective for land resource allocation.Integrating ecological service value(ESV)accounting and ecological security pattern(ESP)delineation,and combining with the land use structure of 2004/2010/2016 in Ezhou City,this research laid out the urban ESP based on ESV with Net Primary Productivity(NPP),and made it as the main influence factor to simulate land use structure in 2022.The results indicated that:1)The water body has the biggest contribution to ESV,while the construction land has the minimum;2)91 ecological corridors are extracted,of which 28 were important ecological corridors;there were 36 ecological nodes extracted,including 17 important nodes;3)According to ESV,Ezhou City was divided into four security zones.The area of ecological restoration zone was the largest,and human activity core zone area was the smallest;4)In the no ESP protection scenarios and ESP protection scenarios separately,the net increase area of construction land is from 868.5 hm^(2) to 52.74 hm^(2) in the ecological core protection area;the construction land in the human activity core area has been increased by 2342.31 hm^(2) in protected scene,766.23 hm^(2) more than that of the unprotected scene.The results show that the division of security zones promoted the relocation of construction land from ecological protection core zone to human activity core zone,which can protect the ecological environment effectively,and the ESP-based simulation can provide the decision-making reference to coordinate the relationship of regional land resource allocation and the ecological environment protection.

生态安全格局约束下长株潭都市圈建设用地演变模拟与管控

为探索生态安全格局下区域可持续发展模式,选取长株潭都市圈为研究对象,通过遥感数据识别2000—2020年建设用地变化情况,采用综合生态重要性评估模型和MCR(minimal cumulative resistance)模型构建都市圈生态安全格局,基于FLUS模型(future land use change scenario simulation model)设置自然发展(ND)、核心生态块保护(CEP)、生态安全格局约束(ESPR)3种建设用地模拟情景,在模拟结果的基础上划定长株潭都市圈城镇开发边界。结果表明:2000—2020年长株潭都市圈建设用地扩张迅速,且由急速无序扩张转为缓速集中扩张;利用综合生态重要性评价得到极重要性生态用地共计2649.54 km^(2),筛选得到生态源地共计1204.38 km^(2),占研究区总面积的13.97%,并构建出长株潭都市圈综合生态安全格局;在ND、CEP、ESPR 3种情景模式下,2030年长株潭都市圈建设用地规模分别达到1345.88、1345.79和1284.94 km^(2)。基于ESPR情景划定城镇开发边界范围,可有效实现土地经济和生态效益的最大化,并为该地区的生态保护和土地利用规划提供参考。

高原湖泊城市生态安全格局构建——以大理市为例

合理构建生态安全格局是高原湖泊城市健康发展的重要保障。以大理市为研究区,将生态系统健康和生态系统服务统筹到生态安全评估,尝试采用土地发展概率修正生态阻力面,运用电路理论构建生态安全格局,并提出优化方案。结果表明:大理市生态安全水平呈现出“高-低-高”圈层结构空间分布特征;确定生态源地53块,生成顾及未来土地发展的生态阻力面,识别生态廊道111条,筛选生态夹点23处,划分三级生态改善区。提出以洱海为一核,以苍山和南部林区为两屏,以大理市东北部生态保护区、海东生态修复区和满江—凤仪生态城市建设区为三区,以城镇区之间的多个生态修复区为多组团共同构成“一核、两屏、三区、多组团”的生态安全优化格局。将生态系统健康和生态系统服务统筹到生态安全评估及利用土地发展概率修正阻力面所构建的生态安全格局,能更加真实的反映未来发展趋势下生态安全格局构建的需要,为城市生态安全格局构建方法提供了新视角和新方法,以期为城市生态文明建设的区域理论提供借鉴,助力高原湖泊城市的生态宜居。

基于水-陆耦合生态系统服务的生态安全格局构建研究——以长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区为例

快速城市化和国土空间规划大背景下,评估区域生态系统服务、构建生态安全格局是实现城市精细化发展的有效手段。本研究立足生态系统服务供给效能,以长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区为例,从陆域、水域两个层面进行量化计算,构建水-陆耦合生态系统服务综合评价体系,将高供给区域识别为生态源地,并基于MCR模型和电路理论分别提取廊道和节点,构建区域生态安全格局。研究结果表明:1)分别识别陆域和水域生境斑块面积34.31km^(2)、272.50km^(2),为江南水乡空间存续和城市绿地空间选址提供了理论依据;2)水-陆耦合度评价得到源地41个,总面积206.79km^(2),占研究区总面积8.57%,呈现“西北多东南少”的格局;3)提取89条生态廊道和91个生态节点,生态廊道总长度586.35km,呈均匀网状分布,节点包括44个夹点及47个障碍点,主要位于吴江区。通过区域生态安全格局的构建与优先级评价,分级提出国土空间生态保护与修复建议,为我国其他快速城市化地区及都市圈周边区域的国土空间合理布局、土地利用的转化与管理提供参考。

基于土地利用变化的广州国土空间格局优化研究

在乡村振兴和新型城镇化发展的背景下,如何统筹国土空间格局,优化生产、生活、生态空间是目前需要解决的问题。以广州为例,将MCR(minimum cumulative resistance)模型、斑块生成土地利用变化(patchgenerating land use simulation,PLUS)模型、马尔可夫(Markov)模型进行耦合形成MCR-PLUS-Markov模型,应用到城市国土空间格局优化研究中。在生态安全格局下建立生态源阻力面和阻力源阻力面,构建生态安全格局功能分区,设置不同的城市发展情景,进行不同情景下国土空间发展预测模拟与分析,通过预测模拟结果进行国土空间格局优化研究。结果表明,基于MCR-PLUS-Markov模型的预测模拟分析,精度评价相对较高,对广州国土空间格局预测分析具有较好的适用性。

基于土地利用变化的喀斯特断陷盆地景观格局演变与生态安全评价

喀斯特地区生态重要性与脆弱性并存,研究喀斯特断陷盆地景观生态安全格局演变对当地土地利用高效管理和生态修复具有重要意义。以云南、四川、贵州三省交界处的喀斯特断陷盆地为研究对象,基于2000—2020年土地利用数据,通过构建土地利用转移矩阵、计算景观格局指数和景观生态安全指数,系统分析土地利用、景观格局与景观生态安全水平的时空演变特征。结果如下:(1)林地、草地、耕地是研究区主要土地利用类型,面积占比超过96%。土地利用变化主要发生在2005—2010年和2015—2020年,空间上表现出整体稳定而局部变化剧烈的特点,以退耕还林还草和林地向草地转换为主,耕地面积在过去20年共减少了386.62 km^(2)。(2)景观多样性与均匀度上升,景观蔓延度下降。林地的最大斑块面积比例下降而草地上升,多数用地的斑块密度上升而集聚度下降,土地利用结构整体优化,但破碎化趋势明显,尤其是林地、耕地和草地。此外,建设用地呈连片化扩张。(3)景观生态安全水平明显提升,一般安全及以上安全区面积占比由2000年的62.35%上升到2020年的98.11%。在石漠化治理和生态保护的推动下,南部的生态安全水平大幅提高,推动空间格局从“北高南低”逐步转向“南北相对均衡”。景观生态安全水平的空间集聚性明显,高-高值集聚区主要在北部而低-低值集聚区主要在南部,需进一步推动北部生态保护以保障其生态屏障功能的发挥,并加强南部生态修复来提升其生态安全水平。此外,需持续推进石漠化治理并合理调控当地经济发展与生态保护间的关系,来维持生态安全水平的长期稳定。

城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响研究——以合肥市为例

城市用地空间扩张对生态环境的影响映射出人类社会活动和生态环境保护之间的交互作用,系统地研究城市空间无序蔓延所诱发的城市土地利用方式变化对城市生态环境的影响程度,对助推中国生态文明建设目标具有重要现实意义。为探究合肥市城市扩张对生态安全格局的影响程度,综合运用生态遥感指数、最小累积阻力模型、电路理论和斑块生成土地利用模拟模型,构建合肥市生态安全格局,识别生态夹点和生态障碍点,再从模拟验证的基础上(总体精度为94.71%,Kappa系数为90.04%,Fom值为0.102),预测了2030—2040年的城市扩张,并根据预测结果探讨城市扩张对区域生态安全格局影响程度。研究发现:合肥市生态环境质量整体呈现南高中低的分布格局,识别出合肥市生态源地共计35处,源地间活跃生态廊道70条,非活跃廊道共17条,生态夹点290个,生态障碍点112个。2020—2040年合肥市城乡、工矿居民用地、林地、水域和未利用土地面积将不断增加,而耕地以及草地面积将持续减少。2020—2040年期间城镇建成区分别侵占了生态廊道、源地、夹点、障碍点面积为55.95、10.51、1.04、1.35 km 2。研究结果可为今后快速发展城市的生态环境治理和国土空间生态保护修复工作提供理论依据和技术参考。