Spatial Heterogeneity of Embedded Water Consumption from the Perspective of Virtual Water Surplus and Deficit in the Yellow River Basin,China

Virtual water trade(VWT)provides a new perspective for alleviating water crisis and has thus attracted widespread attention.However,the heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside the river basin and its influencing factors remains further study.In this study,for better investigating the pattern and heterogeneity of virtual water trade inside and outside provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin in 2015 using the input-output model(MRIO),we proposed two new concepts,i.e.,virtual water surplus and virtual water deficit,and then used the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)model to identify the inherent mechanism of the imbalance of virtual water trade between provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin and the other four regions in China.The results show that:1)in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,the less developed the economy was,the larger the contribution of the agricultural sector in virtual water trade,while the smaller the contribution of the industrial sector.2)Due to the large output of agricultural products,the upstream and midstream provincial regions of the Yellow River Basin had a virtual water surplus,with a net outflow of virtual water of 2.7×10^(8) m^(3) and 0.9×10^(8) m^(3),respectively.3)provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin were in a virtual water deficit with the rest of China,and the decisive factor was the active degree of trade with the outside.This study would be beneficial to illuminate the trade-related water use issues in provincial regions along the Yellow River Basin,which has farreaching practical signific-ance for alleviating water scarcity.

Ecological compensation mechanism for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on footprint balance and footprint deficit

Construction of the ecological compensation mechanism is an important approach to put the“Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Plan”into practice and improve the ecological environment of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.This paper constructs an ecological compensation mechanism for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the footprint balance and footprint deficit after clarifying ecological governance objectives.First,this paper proposes to establish a uniform,hierarchical and classified supply mechanism of ecosystem services according to the classification of land resources,water resources and forest resources for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Then,the“Authority with Corresponding Responsibility”for the supply of ecosystem services in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region can be realized through a footprint balance and footprint deficit indicator circulation mechanism.Finally,the scientific and rational ecological compensation standard can be guaranteed through establishing the integrated governance mechanism for ecological compensation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and improving the“ecological compensation standard”.The results of this paper can provide sound theoretical support for effectively promoting the improvement of ecosystem services and human well-being in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.

National Ecological Deficit Accounting of China with Detailed Ecological Footprint

Ecological footprint is a new method to assess sustainable development quantitatively. It translates production into biologically productive areas offering material flows to measure the utilized degree of nature by humankind. At present, China runs ecological deficits because footprints required for consumption are larger than available ones. In the paper, the ecological footprint model is applied to calculate the deficits by resource, environment and import-export accounting. It is clear that the deficits have caused enormous pressure to resource and environment, which would become bigger with more factors of resource and environment being accounted. In the primary production and energy trade, import footprint turned from deficit to surplus after 1996, which benefited the conservation of national resource. But compared with the huge depletion caused by resource and environment, they had small effects on deficits.

Spatiotemporal Comparative Analysis of Ecological Footprint of Poyang Lake Area and Five River Watersheds in Jiangxi Province

The Jiangxi province was divided into seven parts according to the concept of watershed,namely Poyang lake area,Fuhe,Xinjiang,Ganjiang,Xiuhe,Raohe and other river watersheds.The ecological supply and demands status of the former six parts from 2000 to 2006 was computed based on the ecological footprint model and a spatiotemporal comparative analysis to them was conducted.The result showed that:①all the studied areas had an increasing ecological deficit and they were in the status of unsustainable development;② the arable land footprint's demand were about 80% of their total footprint's demand respectively,so it was of great significance to protect and exploit arable land resources scientifically;③ the ecological deficit of grassland and forest resources can not be ignored.

Ecological Footprint and Major Driving Forces in West Jilin Province, Northeast China

The environmental impact caused by local people （ecological footprint of consumption, EFc） and the actual environmental impact that the ecosystem burdens （ecological footprint of production, EFp） in West Jilin Province, Northeast China from 1986 to 2006 were evaluated by using ecological footprint （EF） method. And the major driving forces of EFc and EFp were analyzed by STIRPAT model. Both EFc and EFp showed increasing trends in 1986-2006, accompanied by decreasing ecological deficits but expanding ecological overshoots. Population （P）, GDP per capita （A1）, quadratic term of GDP per capita （A2）, urbanization （Tα1）, and quadratic term of urbanization （Ta2） were important influencing factors of EFc, among which Tα2 and Tα1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFc. A1, A2 and Tα2 were important influencing factors of EFp, among which A2 and A1 were the most dominate driving forces of EFp. In 1986-2006, the classical Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis did not exist between A2 and EF （both EFc and EFp）, but did between Tα2 and EF. The results indicate that enhancing the urbanization process and diversifying economic sources is one of the most effective ways to reduce the environmental impact of West Jilin Province. Moreover, importance should be attached to improve the eco-efficiency of resource exploitation and consumption.

Change of Ecological Footprint and Analysis of Ecological Sustainability——Taking Zhangjiakou City as an Example

This paper researches the ecological sustainability of Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province, China, using the ecological footprint model. According to the study we find that Zhangjiakou City was in the situation of ecological deficit from 1990 to 2000 and the deficit had the enlarging tendency. In 1990 the per capita ecological footprint was 0.964 and the per capita ecological capacity was 0.5 l 8, thus it can be calculated that the per capita ecological deficit was 4）.446. However in 2000, the per capita ecological footprint increased to 1.068, at the same time the per capita eco- logical capacity decreased to 0.471, then the per capita ecological deficit in 2000 was 4）.597. Furthermore, this paper studies the ecological sustainability of the city from the changes of the ecological footprint of per 10,000 yuan GDP and the productivity of ecological system. Finally the authors point out the shortage of the model and the way to improve it.

Ecological Footprint Dynamics of Yunnan, China

A fundamental element of sustainable development is that humans live within nature's biological capacity. Quantifying this, however, remains a significant challenge for which there are many emerging tools. The concept of the Ecological Footprint is one such accounting tool for comprehensive assessment of the status of sustainable development, based on integration of resource consumption and land capacity, reflecting the human impact on the environment. A region's development is defined as unsustainable when the Ecological Footprint surpasses the biological capacity. In this paper, the Ecological Footprint concept was applied in assessing the development of Yunnan Province, China in a period between 1988 and 2006. The results showed that the Ecological Footprint per capita in Yunnan rose from 0.854 gha in 1988 to 2.11 gha in 2006. Ecological deficit, defined as when the human demand on the land surpasses the regions biological productive capacity, emerged in 1991 and quickly increased from 0.02 gha in 1991 to 1.05 gha in 2006. The increase in the ecological deficit is primarily a result of the rapid increase in population and consumption level. To achieve sustainable development in Yunnan, production and consumption rates need to be modified.

Application of Ecological Footprint

Ecological footprint is a method of measuring how much we use the natural resources and how much the nature provides services for human beings. This paper summarized the application of ecological footprint at different scales and in different fields and different ecological types at home and abroad,analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of ecological footprint method,and made a prediction of the application of ecological footprint.

Field water surplus and deficit of major crops in dryland of northern China

The definition and classification of field evapotranspiration was discussed, based on which the calculation model for field evapotranspiration was established. Based on crop, soil measurements and mean climatic data in 1950-1980, mean field water surplus or deficit on climatic, crop and cropland basis in dryland of northern China was calculated, and the pattern of field water surplus or deficit was analyzed and discussed in this paper.

Ecological Carrying Capacity of Cities in Southwest China Against the Background of Rapid Urbanization: A Case Study of Mianyang, Sichuan, China

As Mianyang has neglected the coordination relationship with the ecological environment in the course of rapid urbanization,its ecological environment is getting worse.To this end,this study used the ecological footprint method to explore the ecological carrying capacity of Mianyang from 2007 to 2014 under the background of rapid urbanization,which has important guiding significance for the future development of Mianyang.The results showed that in 2007–2014,the ecological footprint of Mianyang was greater than its ecological carrying capacity,indicating that Mianyang is in an ecological deficit.Specifically,the per capita ecological footprint showed a downtrend,and the per capita ecological carrying capacity showed a trend of smooth decline.In addition,the per capita ecological deficit was generally decreasing.In summary,Mianyang was generally in an ecological deficit in 2007–2014.Thus,the ecological environment of the region should be protected,in order to promote the sustainable development of the ecosystem in the region.

Touristic Ecological Footprint of Jiufeng National Forest Park in Beijing Based on Component Method

This paper,based on the ecological footprint component method,calculated the touristic ecological footprint of Jiufeng National Forest Park in Beijing.The results showed that in 2013,in Jiufeng National Forest Park,the total touristic ecological footprint was 183.08 hm2,the total ecological capacity was 225.16 hm2,the total touristic ecological surplus was 42.07 hm2,and the average touristic ecological surplus was 0.000 4 hm2 per capita,indicating that tourism in Jiufeng National Forest Park was in ecological surplus and ecological security.However,forest parks in Beijing at large were in ecological deficit.This paper suggested that the tourist flow volume of forest parks with a big ecological deficit should be moved to forest parks with an ecological surplus.Besides,forest parks are expected to strengthen the development and management,improve the availability of forest recreation resource,and promote the environmental protection awareness of tourists,so as to boost the sustainable development of forest park tourism.

草原生态赤字测评及其成因分析——以锡林郭勒盟为例

对锡林郭勒盟20年间的草原生态足迹与生态承载力进行定量分析的基础上,发现锡林郭勒盟草原生态足迹现增加的态势,而其生态承载力呈现减小的趋势,草原长期处于生态赤字状态。草原生态建设与修复后劲不足、人草畜矛盾依旧突出等因素造成锡林郭勒盟草原生态赤字问题;提出加强草原生态修复、建设草原自然公园体制等对策建议,期使能为消除草原生态赤字、促进草原生态可持续发展提出实质性意见。

塔里木河流域水资源生态承载力动态评价与预测

采用水资源生态足迹模型,评估了塔里木河流域(简称为塔河流域)2005—2020年人均水资源生态足迹、生态承载力、生态盈亏以及生态承载状况的演变过程,并运用灰色预测模型对2021—2030年的生态盈余/赤字进行预测。结果表明:2005—2020年塔河流域水资源整体上处于生态赤字状态;多数区域水资源生态压力指数大于1.0,生态状况超载严重,万元GDP水资源生态足迹持续下降,而水资源负载指数均呈上升趋势;未来塔河流域水资源赤字状态呈现逐年下降趋势。研究成果能够有效服务于塔河流域生态环境保护和水资源规划与管理。

基于三维生态足迹的渭河流域甘肃段可持续发展综合评价与影响因素分析

渭河流域生态系统的稳定和可持续发展是实现黄河流域保护和高质量发展战略的关键。本研究以渭河流域甘肃段为研究对象,采用生态足迹理论和改进的三维生态足迹模型,评估了2005—2020年期间该区域的生态安全状况及其变化趋势。基于此,对渭河流域的生态可持续性以及资源供需平衡进行了综合评价。结果表明,该时段内,渭河流域甘肃段的生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字均呈增长趋势,其中生态足迹的增速超过了生态承载力的增速,导致生态赤字持续增加,反映出该地区资源供给不足以满足需求。生态足迹分析的广度与深度均有所增加,反映出该区域存量资本被过度利用,且耕地、林地和建设用地对资源流量的占用水平上升,而水域和草地的占用水平下降。此外,生态足迹的变化受多种因素驱动,包括自然环境、经济增长和社会发展等,其中建成区面积、城镇化率、人均GDP和各产业产值与之正相关。研究还发现,区域土地的生态可持续性已从基本平衡转变为轻度不可持续状态,并且有进一步恶化的趋势。适度人口比例实际人口的比例下降,人口增长空间减小,使得生态可持续性难以稳定保障。本研究为黄河流域保护和高质量发展战略提供了科学依据。

修正碳赤字视阈下京津冀县域生态补偿时空格局及其驱动因素

[目的]建立兼顾区域本底差异的生态补偿模型,进一步明确京津冀生态补偿时空分异格局及其主导驱动因子,为政府部门制定环境保护与宏观经济政策提供参考。[方法]基于修正碳赤字,利用模型构建、空间相关性分析与地理探测器技术等方法构建了合理的生态补偿框架,分析和研究了2007—2020年的京津冀县域生态补偿的时空变异格局、空间自相关性、驱动因子排序和交互作用等内容。[结果]①京津冀县域2007—2020年碳排放量呈现“先增后减”的变化趋势,碳吸收量大体呈现持续增加的变化趋势。②修正前的京津冀县域碳赤字呈现东、南、西部高,而北部较低的U形格局,而修正后的碳赤字由于兼顾了区域间本底差异,在时空分布上更加均匀。③生态补偿额度冷点区域基本分布在京津冀东北部,热点区域分布在京津冀西南部,两者之间存在个别冷热点区域,整体呈现热点区域向东北方向移动,冷点显著区域向西南方向移动的趋势。④不同年份内影响生态补偿额变化的主要因子不同,2007,2012,2017和2020年这4a中影响京津冀县域生态补偿变化的主导影响因子分别为第三产业产值、财政收入、第二产业产值和人均生产总值;不同年份导致生态补偿变化的因素交互影响力不同,交互作用表现出先互相减弱后互相增强的反复效应。[结论]兼顾区域本底差异的生态补偿模型,对京津冀生态补偿时空分异格局及其主导驱动因子的分析具有一定的公平性,可为政府部门制定环境保护与宏观经济政策提供更精准的指导和建议。

基于生态系统理论的注意缺陷多动障碍儿童综合干预的理论模式

注意缺陷多动障碍(attention deficit hyperactivity disorder,ADHD)是生物-心理-社会多因素作用的结果,当前学者及同行推荐心理行为干预,积极推行医教结合的联动及监测模式,但关于医教结合的联动机制,及如何构建社会支持系统仍在探索。本文基于发展心理学中的生物生态系统理论,从微观系统、中间系统、外层系统、宏观系统和历时系统等角度阐述影响ADHD儿童发展的因素及各因素之间的关系,进而设计综合、多元的治疗和支持方案,以期为ADHD多模式干预策略提供理论指导,为ADHD儿童及家庭提供更好的支持。

河北省水资源生态足迹分析与预测

科学预测河北省未来的水资源生态足迹和生态承载力,对于区域水资源可持续利用具有重要意义。利用系统动力学(SD)法和生态足迹模型构建河北省水资源利用SD模型,设计现状延续型情景ES1、经济发展型情景ES2、节约用水型情景ES3和协调发展型情景ES4等4类不同发展情景,对现状(2006~2021年)和未来(2022~2050年)水资源生态足迹进行评价与预测。结果表明:①对于现状年份,人均水资源生态足迹呈缓慢下降趋势,人均水资源生态承载力呈波动变化,水资源处于生态赤字,表明水资源利用处于不安全状态,但水资源利用效率越来越高。②对于预测年份,4类发展情景的人均水资源生态足迹和水资源生态压力指数均呈增长趋势,水资源均处于生态赤字,并且亏损程度逐年严重。虽然万元GDP水资源生态足迹均呈下降趋势,未来的水资源利用效率越来越高,但未来水资源利用压力仍过大。③情景ES4是最适宜的情景,既能以适当的速度保证河北省未来社会经济发展,又能降低水资源生态压力。河北省在未来水资源利用过程中,需从多方面采取积极行动,以确保水资源可持续利用发展。

绿色低碳视域下长江经济带耕地生态外溢价值评估及时空变化分析

为推进长江经济带耕地保护和绿色低碳发展,利用当量因子法、环境成本法等测算耕地生态服务价值和负外部性价值,结合耕地生态足迹和生态承载力,将长江经济带11省(直辖市)划分为盈余区、平衡区与赤字区,对耕地生态外溢价值进行评估,并分析时空变化特征。结果显示:(1)2011-2021年长江经济带耕地生态价值总量呈上升趋势,由3670.37亿元上涨至4661.55亿元,耕地生态外溢价值缓慢上升,由1353.82亿元上涨至1970.77亿元。(2)长江经济带耕地资源整体处于盈余状态,耕地生态价值总体呈现出“东低西高”的态势,四川省耕地生态价值和盈余量最高,上海市耕地生态价值最低。(3)2011-2021年间,浙江省和上海市处于耕地生态赤字区,四川省处于耕地生态高盈余区,重庆市和贵州省处于耕地生态平衡状态,江西省、安徽省和江苏省耕地生态盈亏无显著变化,云南省和湖北省耕地生态盈余水平有所上升,湖南省耕地生态盈余水平有所下降。基于此,长江经济带各省(直辖市)应充分利用自身资源和优势,制定和实施适应性的耕地保护策略,推动耕地资源的可持续利用,为实现长江经济带的生态优先、绿色低碳发展目标做出贡献。

Surplus or deficit? Quantifying the total ecological compensation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

The calculation of ecological compensation and boundary identification of stakeholders represent the key challenges for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in its implementation of the trans-regional ecological compensation mechanism.Breaking administrative boundaries and spatially coordinating ecological resources helps to restructure an ecological compensation mechanism of the region based on the coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.According to the estimated ecological assets in the counties of the region in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015,a quantitative model for total ecological compensation was built based on ecological assets and county-level economic development.Then,the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the total ecological compensation in the region were defined,and the boundaries of ecological surplus and deficit areas were identified.Results indicate:(1)The region’s annual average ecological assets amounted to￥1379.47 billion;in terms of annual total ecological assets,Hebei ranked first(￥1123.80 billion),followed by Beijing(￥157.46 billion)and Tianjin(￥98.21 billion);and in terms of ecological assets per unit area,Beijing ranked first,Tianjin second and Hebei last.(2)Among ecosystem services,hydrological regulation and climate regulation had the highest annual average value and contributed most to the increase in ecological assets.In 2015,the contribution of water and soil conservation to the total ecological assets decreased to-15.66%,showing the degradation of the function played by different ecosystems.(3)The ecological surplus of the region in four periods of 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 were￥398.98 billion,￥870.37 billion,￥1254.93 billion and￥2693.94 billion respectively,basically offsetting the ecological deficit of each corresponding period,but the urgency for ecological compensation was increased.(4)The ecological surplus and deficit areas showed a great fluctuation in different time periods.Larger time span means more noticeable convergence of deficit areas towards central and eastern areas.Public resources such as education,transportation and medical care in central urban areas should be decentralized to encourage population dispersal,weaken the agglomeration effect of deficit areas and finally achieve the ecological synergy of the region.

DURATION OF NEGATIVE SURPLUS FOR A TWO STATE MARKOV-MODULATED RISK MODEL

We consider a continuous time risk model based on a two state Markov process, in which after an exponentially distributed time, the claim frequency changes to a different level and can change back again in the same way. We derive the Laplace transform for the first passage time to surplus zero from a given negative surplus and for the duration of negative surplus. Closed-form expressions are given in the case of exponential individual claim. Finally, numerical results are provided to show how to estimate the moments of duration of negative surplus.