Modelling the probability of presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran until 2070

Objective:To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes(Ae.)aegypti and Ae.albopictus in Iran due to climate change by the 2070s.Methods:All data relating to the spatial distribution of Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus worldwide,which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes,were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel file.The effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s,2050s,and 2070s.Results:The most suitable areas for the establishment of Ae.aegypti are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran,based on the model outputs.The modelling result for suitable ecological niches of Ae.albopictus shows that in the current climatic conditions,the southern half of Iran from east to west,and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this species.In the future,some regions,such as Gilan and Golestan provinces,will have more potential to exist/establish Ae.albopictus.Also,according to the different climate change scenarios,suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the country.The temperature of the wettest season of the year(Bio8)and average annual temperature(Bio1)were the most effective factors in predicting the model for Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus,respectively.Conclusions:It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of Iran.The future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.

Elevation transition of aquatic insects closely matches a thermal feature in the Yungas of Northwestern Argentina

Temperature is a key factor that shapes the distribution of organisms.Having knowledge about how species respond to temperature is relevant to devise strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change.Aquatic insects are particularly vulnerable to climate change,yet there is still much to learn about their ecology and distribution.In the Yungas ecoregion of Northwestern Argentina,cold-and warm-adapted species of the orders Ephemeroptera,Plecoptera,and Trichoptera(EPT)are segregated by elevation.We modeled the ecological niche of South American EPT species in this region using available data and projected their potential distribution in geographic space.Species were grouped based on their ecogeographic similarity,and we analyzed their replacement pattern along elevation gradients,focusing on the ecotone where opposing thermal preferences converge.Along this interface,we identified critical points where the combined incidence of cold and warm assemblages maximizes,indicating a significant transition zone.We found that the Montane Cloud Forest holds the interface,with a particularly greater suitability at its lower boundary.The main axis of the interface runs in a N-S direction and falls between 14°C-16°C mean annual isotherms.The probability of a particular location within a basin being classified as part of the interface increases as Kira’s warmth index approaches a score around 150.Understanding the interface is critical for defining the thermal limits of species distribution and designing biomonitoring programs.Changes in the location of thermal constants related to mountainous ecotones may cause vertical displacement of aquatic insects and vegetation communities.We have recognized significant temperature thresholds that serve as indicators of suitability for the interface.As global warming is anticipated to shift these indicators,we suggest using them to monitor the imprints of climate change on mountain ecosystems.

Study on Influencing Factors of Mental Health of Mobile Young White-Collar Workers in China

Mobile young white-collar workers not only have the characteristics of mobile young people,but also have the characteristics of general white-collar workers.Under the influence of both,their mental health may be suffering from“double disadvantage”.So,based on an ecological model of the stress process,this paper tries to use the data of the questionnaire on the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers in Zhejiang Province to explore the influence of some factors in the middle workplace and residence place on the mental health of micro individuals.The results show that:(1)The working environment with high control and low freedom and the workplace discrimination against the mobile status will have a negative impact on the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers;(2)Financial anxiety in daily life will lead to a decline in the mental health level of mobile young white-collar workers;(3)Good organizational support and neighborhood social relations can significantly relieve life pressure,so as to effectively improve the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers.It can be seen that we also need to pay more attention to the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers in order to improve their situation.

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis(Diptera: Tephritidae) in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although these pests have not established in China,precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature.Thus,we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)model with the occurrence records of these two species.Bactrocera bryoniae and B.neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China,and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20%of the globe.Globally,the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia,the central and the southeast coast of Africa,southern North America,northern and central South America,and Australia.While within China,most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species.Notably,southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis invasions.Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis in the world and in particular China,and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.

Model study on Bohai ecosystem 1. Model description and primary productivity

A Nutrient -Phytoplankton -Zooplankton（NPZD） type of ecological model is developed to reflect the biochemical process, and further coupled to a primitive equation ocean model, an irradiation model as well as a river discharge model to reproduce ecosystem dynamics in the Bohai Sea. Modeled primary production shows reasonable consistency with observations quantitatively and qualitatively; in addition, f-ratio is examined in detail in the first time, which is also within the range reported in other studies and reveals some meaningful insight into the relative contributions of ammonium and nitrate to the growth of phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea.

Model assessment of nutrient removal via planting Sesuvium portulacastrum in floating beds in eutrophic marine waters:the case of aquaculture areas of Dongshan Bay

Many coastal seas are severely eutrophic and required to reduce nutrient concentrations to meet a certain water quality standard.We proposed a method for nutrient removal by planting Sesuvium portulacastrum at the water surface using the floating beds in the aquaculture area of the Dongshan Bay as an example,which is an important net-cage culture base in China and where dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN)and dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP)reach 0.75 mg/L and 0.097 mg/L,respectively far exceeding China’s Grade IV water quality standards.Numerical simulations were taken using the ecological model,field observations and field plantation experimental results to assess the environmental restoration effects of planting S.portulacastrum at some certain spatial scales.Our field experiments suggested that the herbs can absorb 377 g/m^2 nitrogen and 22.9 g/m^2 phosphorus in eight months with an inserting density of^60 shoot/m^2.The numerical experiments show that the greater the plantation area is,the more nutrient removal.Plantation in^12%of the study area could lower nutrients to the required Grade II standards,i.e.,0.2 mg/L<DIN≤0.3 mg/L and 0.015 mg/L<DIP≤0.03 mg/L.Here the phytoremediation method and results provide helpful references for environmental restoration in other eutrophic seas.

Evolution of biogeographic disjunction between eastern Asia and North America in Chamaecyparis:Insights from ecological niche models

The disjunct distribution of plants between eastern Asia(EA) and North America(NA) is one of the most well-known biogeographic patterns. However, the formation and historical process of this pattern have been long debated. Chamaecyparis is a good model to test previous hypotheses about the formation of this disjunct pattern as it contains six species disjunctly distributed in EA, western North America(WNA)and eastern North America(ENA). In this study, we applied ecological niche models to test the formation of the disjunct pattern of Chamaecyparis. The model calibrated with the EA species was able to predict the distribution of eastern NA species well, but not the western NA species. Furthermore, the eastern Asian species were shown to have higher niche overlap with the eastern North American species. The EA species were also shown to share more similar habitats with ENA species than with WNA species in the genus. Chamaecyparis species in WNA experienced a significant niche shift compared with congeneric species. Chamaecyparis had a low number of suitable regions in Europe and the middle and western NA during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) period, and became extinct in the former region whereas it retains residual distribution in the latter. The extirpations in western NA and Europe in response to the late Neogene and Quaternary climatic cooling and the more similar habitats between ENA and EA ultimately shaped the current intercontinental disjunct distribution of Chamaecyparis. Both current hypotheses may be also jointly applied to explain more eastern Asian and eastern North American disjunctions observed today.

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios.Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics.Here,we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima,Casuarina equisetifolia,Centaurea stoebe ssp.micranthos,Dioscorea bulbifera,Lantana camara,and Schinus terebinthifolia-Xhat are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change.We used Species Distribution Models(SDMs)to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models.ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs,estimate current distributions,and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species.Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America.Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States,while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades,given projected changes in temperature and precipitation.Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.

Partial Oscillation of m-dimensional Logistic Ecologic Models

We present and discuss the partial oscillation with respect to equilibrium state ofm-dimensional Logistic delay ecologic models, and obtain some simple criteria.

Additions of landscape metrics improve predictions of occurrence of species distribution models

Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape metrics. We examined the relative impacts of landscape predictors on the accuracy of habitat models by constructing distribution models at regional scales incorporating environmental variables (climate, topography, vegetation, and soil types) and secondary species occurrence data, and using them to predict the occurrence of 36 species in 15 forest fragments where we conducted rapid surveys. We then selected six landscape predictors at the landscape scale and ran general linear models of species presence/absence with either a single scale predictor (the probabilities of occurrence of the distribution models or landscape variables) or multiple scale predictors (distribution models?+?one landscape variable). Our results indicated that distribution models alone had poor predictive abilities but were improved when landscape predictors were added; the species responses were not, however, similar to the multiple scale predictors. Our study thus highlights the importance of considering landscape metrics to generate more accurate habitat suitability models.

An interactive simulation model of urban ecosystem and its implementation

An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.

A numerical model study on multi-species harmful algal blooms coupled with background ecological fields

Based on systematized physical, chemical, and biological modules, a multi-species harmful algal bloom （HAB） model coupled with background ecological fields was established. This model schematically embod-ied that HAB causative algal species and the background ecological system, quantified as total biomass, were significantly different in terms of the chemical and biological processes during a HAB while the inter-action between the two was present. The model also included a competition and interaction mechanism between the HAB algal species or populations. The Droop equation was optimized by considering tempera-ture, salinity, and suspended material impact factors in the parameterization of algal growth rate with the nutrient threshold. Two HAB processes in the springs of 2004 and 2005 were simulated using this model. Both simulation results showed consistent trends with corresponding HAB processes observed in the East China Sea, which indicated the rationality of the model. This study made certain progress in modeling HABs, which has great application potential for HAB diagnosis, prediction, and prevention.

Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay

Bayesian networks （BN） have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling （SEM）. In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model＇s accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay.

A Study on the Ecological Teaching Model of College English from the Perspective of Ecological Linguistics

Teachers' teaching concepts, language skills and so on are directly related to teaching methods, and have a profound impact on English teaching. Eco-linguistics is mainly an interdisciplinary subject of language development and change from the perspective of ecology. It is helpful to create a favorable teaching environment, arouse students' interest in learning and improve the quality of classroom teaching. With the help of application tools such as"Rain classroom", this paper mainly focuses on the ecological teaching mode of college English from the perspective of ecological linguistics in detail such as individualized assignment and group work etc, hoping to be helpful to the relevant personnel.

Stability and Uniform Boundedness for a Class of Anaerobic Digestion Ecological Models

Stability, boundedness and persistence are three important aspects for an ecological model. In this paper, a further analysis of a class of anaerobic digestion ecological models is performed. Based on the Liupunov Method, the local stability of all equilibria in the system is got. According to the vector fields described by the system, the proof of the boundedness of the solution on the anaerobic digestion processes is completed in three steps. The method proposed in the discussion on the boundedness can be generalized to the similar problems. Results in this paper give information on how to run the ecological system well by adjusting the system parameters.

EXISTENCE OF NONNEGATIVE SOLUTIONS FOR DEGENERATE ECOLOGICAL MODELS

In this paper,nonnegative solutions for the degenerate elliptic systems are considered.First,nonnegative solutions for scalar equation with spatial discontinuities are studied.Then the method developed for scalar equation is applied to study elliptic systems.At last,the existence criteria of nonnegative solutions of elliptic systems are given.

Analysis of genetic diversity and prediction of Larix species distribution in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,China

Larix resources in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have important ecological and economic values.However,the lack of genetic diversity background and related research hinders the development of conservation strategies.In this study,genetic diversity and distribution of fi ve Larix species were investigated.Using 19 polymorphic microsatellite markers to study 272 representative individuals from 13 populations,the results show low genetic diversity at the population level,with variation explained mainly by diff erentiation among populations.The Larix populations were classifi ed into two clades,one formed by eight populations,including three of the species in this study,L.kongboensis,L.speciosa,and L.potaninii var.australis.The other clade consists of fi ve populations,including the other two species in this study,L.griffi thii and L.himalaica.Genetic distance of the species was aff ected by geographical isolation and genetic diversity was mainly aff ected by altitude.The area suitable for Larix spp.decreased during the Last Glacial Maximum compared to the current distribution according to the niche model,but should increase in future climate scenarios(2050s),expanding westward along the Himalayas.These results provide an important scientifi c basis for the development of conservation strategies and further the sustainable utilization of Larix resources in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

河南省生态承载力定量评估

生态足迹分析法通过对人类对自然的利用程度的测度,来确定区域的发展是否处于生态承载力范围之内,是近年来国内外影响较大的一种可持续发展评估新方法.采用生态足迹模型,选择1995、2000和2003年作为代表年,对河南省生态足迹进行实证计算;并对河南省人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行对比分析,揭示河南省可持续发展制约因子;分析不同土地类型足迹的变化对河南省生态环境的影响效应.

^(15)N isotope fractionation in an aquatic food chain:Bellamya aeruginosa(Reeve) as an algal control agent

^ 15N isotope tracer techniques and ecological modeling were adopted to investigate the fractionation of nitrogen, its uptake and transformation in algae and snail （Bellamya aeruginosa Reeve）. Different algal species were found to differ in their uptake of nitrogen isotopes. Microcystis aeruginisa Ktitz. demonstrated the greatest ^15N accumulation capacity, with the natural variation in isotopic ratio （δ^15N） and the isotope fractionation factor （ε,‰） being the highest among the species investigated. The transformation and utilization of ^15N by snails differed depending on the specific algae consumed （highest for Chlorella pyrenoidosa Chick., lowest for M. aeruginisa）. When snails was seeded in the experimental pond, the algae population structure changed significantly, and total algal biomass as well as the concentration of all nitrogen species decreased, causing an increase in water transparency. A model, incorporating several chemical and biological parameters, was developed to predict algal biomass in an aquatic system when snails was present. The data collected during this investigation indicated that the gastropods such as snails could significantly impact biological community and water quality of small water bodies, suggesting a role for biological control of noxious algal blooms associated with eutrophication.