Modelling the probability of presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Iran until 2070

Objective:To determine the suitable ecological habitats of Aedes(Ae.)aegypti and Ae.albopictus in Iran due to climate change by the 2070s.Methods:All data relating to the spatial distribution of Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus worldwide,which indicated the geographical coordinates of the collection sites of these mosquitoes,were extracted from online scientific websites and entered into an Excel file.The effect of climatic and environmental variables on these mosquitoes was evaluated using the MaxEnt model in the current and future climatic conditions in the 2030s,2050s,and 2070s.Results:The most suitable areas for the establishment of Ae.aegypti are located in the southern and northern coastal areas of Iran,based on the model outputs.The modelling result for suitable ecological niches of Ae.albopictus shows that in the current climatic conditions,the southern half of Iran from east to west,and parts of the northern coasts are prone to the presence of this species.In the future,some regions,such as Gilan and Golestan provinces,will have more potential to exist/establish Ae.albopictus.Also,according to the different climate change scenarios,suitable habitats for this species will gradually change to the northwest and west of the country.The temperature of the wettest season of the year(Bio8)and average annual temperature(Bio1)were the most effective factors in predicting the model for Ae.aegypti and Ae.albopictus,respectively.Conclusions:It is required to focus on entomological studies using different collection methods in the vulnerable areas of Iran.The future modelling results can also be used for long-term planning to prevent the entry and establishment of these invasive Aedes vectors in the country.

Elevation transition of aquatic insects closely matches a thermal feature in the Yungas of Northwestern Argentina

Temperature is a key factor that shapes the distribution of organisms.Having knowledge about how species respond to temperature is relevant to devise strategies for addressing the impacts of climate change.Aquatic insects are particularly vulnerable to climate change,yet there is still much to learn about their ecology and distribution.In the Yungas ecoregion of Northwestern Argentina,cold-and warm-adapted species of the orders Ephemeroptera,Plecoptera,and Trichoptera(EPT)are segregated by elevation.We modeled the ecological niche of South American EPT species in this region using available data and projected their potential distribution in geographic space.Species were grouped based on their ecogeographic similarity,and we analyzed their replacement pattern along elevation gradients,focusing on the ecotone where opposing thermal preferences converge.Along this interface,we identified critical points where the combined incidence of cold and warm assemblages maximizes,indicating a significant transition zone.We found that the Montane Cloud Forest holds the interface,with a particularly greater suitability at its lower boundary.The main axis of the interface runs in a N-S direction and falls between 14°C-16°C mean annual isotherms.The probability of a particular location within a basin being classified as part of the interface increases as Kira’s warmth index approaches a score around 150.Understanding the interface is critical for defining the thermal limits of species distribution and designing biomonitoring programs.Changes in the location of thermal constants related to mountainous ecotones may cause vertical displacement of aquatic insects and vegetation communities.We have recognized significant temperature thresholds that serve as indicators of suitability for the interface.As global warming is anticipated to shift these indicators,we suggest using them to monitor the imprints of climate change on mountain ecosystems.

Study on Influencing Factors of Mental Health of Mobile Young White-Collar Workers in China

Mobile young white-collar workers not only have the characteristics of mobile young people,but also have the characteristics of general white-collar workers.Under the influence of both,their mental health may be suffering from“double disadvantage”.So,based on an ecological model of the stress process,this paper tries to use the data of the questionnaire on the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers in Zhejiang Province to explore the influence of some factors in the middle workplace and residence place on the mental health of micro individuals.The results show that:(1)The working environment with high control and low freedom and the workplace discrimination against the mobile status will have a negative impact on the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers;(2)Financial anxiety in daily life will lead to a decline in the mental health level of mobile young white-collar workers;(3)Good organizational support and neighborhood social relations can significantly relieve life pressure,so as to effectively improve the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers.It can be seen that we also need to pay more attention to the mental health of mobile young white-collar workers in order to improve their situation.

Path-dependent speciation in dynamic fitness landscapes

Species is a fundamental concept in evolutionary biology and biodiversity.However,existing species definitions are often influenced by artificial factors or are challenging in practical application,leading to confusion in species classification.Due to uncertain environmental changes and random genetic drift,the fitness expectations of a population may shift,causing species to evolve to a new evolutionary state based on their current instantaneous fitness within a dynamic fitness landscape.This contrasts with the classic static fitness landscape,where fitness expectations are constant.In a dynamic fitness landscape,speciation may exhibit path dependence,where the evolution of traits follows a probabilistic path,creating feedback that shapes evolutionary trajectories.The path-dependent evolutionary mechanism suggests that species survival within an ecosystem is not directly determined by their fitness but by the probability of their evolutionary pathways.This model also indicates that species can coexist with varying probabilities under limited environmental pressures.Consequently,new species,cryptic species,or sympatric species may emerge via path-dependent evolutionary processes.Within this framework,we developed a mathematical species concept,which may guide future species classification methodologies.

A Modified Model of Ecological Footprint Accounting and Its Application to Cropland in Jiangsu,China

Based on the theory of emergy analysis,a modified model of ecological footprint accounting,termed emergetic ecological footprint(EMEF)in contrast to the conventional ecological footprint(EF)model,is formulated and applied to a case study of Jiangsu cropland,China.Comparisons between the EF and the EMEF with respect to grain,cotton,and food oil were outlined.Per capita EF and EMEF of cropland were also presented to depict the resources consumption level by comparing the biocapacity(BC)or emergetic biocapacity(EMBC,a new BC calculation by emergy analysis) of the same area.In the meanwhile,the ecological sustainability index(ESI),a new concept initiated by the authors, was established in the modified model to indicate and compare the sustainability of cropland use at different levels and between different regions.The results from conventional EF showed that per capita EF of the cropland has exceeded its per capita BC in Jiangsu since 1986.In contrast,based on the EMBC,the per capita EMEF exceeded the per capita EMBC 5 years earlier.The ESIs of Jiangsu cropland use were between 0.7 and 0.4 by the conventional method,while the numbers were between 0.7 and 0.3 by the modified one.The fact that the results of the two methods were similar showed that the modified model was reasonable and feasible,although some principles of the EF and EMEF were quite different. Also,according to the realities of Jiangsu cropland use,the results from the modified model were more acceptable.

COUPLED PHYSICAL-ECOLOGICAL MODELLING IN THE CENTRAL PART OF JIAOZHOU BAY Ⅱ. COUPLED WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

Sharples’ 1 D physical model employing tide wind driven turbulence closure and surface heating cooling physics, was coupled with an ecological model with 9 biochemical components: phytoplankton, zooplankton, shellfish, autotrophic and heterotrophic bacterioplankton, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), suspended detritus and sinking particles to simulate the annual evolution of ecosystem in the central part of Jiaozhou Bay. The coupled modeling results showed that the phytoplankton shading effect could reduce seawater temperature by 2℃, so that photosynthesis efficiency should be less than 8%; that the loss of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazing in winter tended to be compensated by phytoplankton advection and diffusion from the outside of the Bay; that the incident irradiance intensity could be the most important factor for phytoplankton growth rate; and that it was the bacterial secondary production that maintained the maximum zooplankton biomass in winter usually observed in the 1990s, indicating that the microbial food loop was extremely important for ecosystem study of Jiaozhou Bay.

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis(Diptera: Tephritidae) in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia.Although these pests have not established in China,precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature.Thus,we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent)model with the occurrence records of these two species.Bactrocera bryoniae and B.neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China,and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20%of the globe.Globally,the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia,the central and the southeast coast of Africa,southern North America,northern and central South America,and Australia.While within China,most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species.Notably,southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis invasions.Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B.bryoniae and B.neohumeralis in the world and in particular China,and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.

Human Settlement Evaluation in Mountain Areas Based on Remote Sensing,GIS and Ecological Niche Modeling

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is the word＇s highest and largest plateau. Due to increasing demands for environment exploration and tourism, a large transitional area is required for altitude adaptation. Hehuang valley, which locates in the transition zone between the Loess Plateau and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, has convenient transportation and relatively low elevation. Our question is whether the geographic conditions here are appropriate for adapted stay before going into the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Therefore, in this study, we examined the potential use of ecological niche modeling （ENM） for mapping current and potential distribution patterns of human settlements. We chose the Maximum Entropy Method （Maxent）, an ENM which integrates climate, remote sensing and geographical data, to model distributions and assess land suitability for transition areas. After preprocessing and selection, the correlation between variables and spatial auto- correlation input data were removed and 106 occurrence points and 9 environmental layers were determined as the model inputs. The threshold- independent model performance was reasonable according to lO times model running, with the area under the curve （AUC） values being 0.917± 0.01, and 0.923±0.002 for test data. Cohen＇s kappa coefficient of model performance was 0.848. Results showed that 82.22% of the study extent was not suitable for human settlement. Of the remaining areas, highly suitable areas aceounted for 1.19%, moderately for 5.3% and marginally for 11.28%. These suitable areas totaled 418.79 km2, and 86.25% of the sample data was identified in the different gradient of suitable area.The decisive environmental factors were slope and two climate variables： mean diurnal temperature range and temperature seasonality. Our model showed a good performance in mapping and assessing human settlements. This study provides the first predicted potential habitat distribution map for human settlement in Ledu County, which could also help in land use management.

Model study on Bohai ecosystem 1. Model description and primary productivity

A Nutrient -Phytoplankton -Zooplankton（NPZD） type of ecological model is developed to reflect the biochemical process, and further coupled to a primitive equation ocean model, an irradiation model as well as a river discharge model to reproduce ecosystem dynamics in the Bohai Sea. Modeled primary production shows reasonable consistency with observations quantitatively and qualitatively; in addition, f-ratio is examined in detail in the first time, which is also within the range reported in other studies and reveals some meaningful insight into the relative contributions of ammonium and nitrate to the growth of phytoplankton in the Bohai Sea.

Model assessment of nutrient removal via planting Sesuvium portulacastrum in floating beds in eutrophic marine waters:the case of aquaculture areas of Dongshan Bay

Many coastal seas are severely eutrophic and required to reduce nutrient concentrations to meet a certain water quality standard.We proposed a method for nutrient removal by planting Sesuvium portulacastrum at the water surface using the floating beds in the aquaculture area of the Dongshan Bay as an example,which is an important net-cage culture base in China and where dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN)and dissolved inorganic phosphate(DIP)reach 0.75 mg/L and 0.097 mg/L,respectively far exceeding China’s Grade IV water quality standards.Numerical simulations were taken using the ecological model,field observations and field plantation experimental results to assess the environmental restoration effects of planting S.portulacastrum at some certain spatial scales.Our field experiments suggested that the herbs can absorb 377 g/m^2 nitrogen and 22.9 g/m^2 phosphorus in eight months with an inserting density of^60 shoot/m^2.The numerical experiments show that the greater the plantation area is,the more nutrient removal.Plantation in^12%of the study area could lower nutrients to the required Grade II standards,i.e.,0.2 mg/L<DIN≤0.3 mg/L and 0.015 mg/L<DIP≤0.03 mg/L.Here the phytoremediation method and results provide helpful references for environmental restoration in other eutrophic seas.

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios.Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics.Here,we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants-Ailanthus altissima,Casuarina equisetifolia,Centaurea stoebe ssp.micranthos,Dioscorea bulbifera,Lantana camara,and Schinus terebinthifolia-Xhat are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change.We used Species Distribution Models(SDMs)to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models.ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs,estimate current distributions,and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species.Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America.Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States,while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada.These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades,given projected changes in temperature and precipitation.Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.

Evolution of biogeographic disjunction between eastern Asia and North America in Chamaecyparis:Insights from ecological niche models

The disjunct distribution of plants between eastern Asia(EA) and North America(NA) is one of the most well-known biogeographic patterns. However, the formation and historical process of this pattern have been long debated. Chamaecyparis is a good model to test previous hypotheses about the formation of this disjunct pattern as it contains six species disjunctly distributed in EA, western North America(WNA)and eastern North America(ENA). In this study, we applied ecological niche models to test the formation of the disjunct pattern of Chamaecyparis. The model calibrated with the EA species was able to predict the distribution of eastern NA species well, but not the western NA species. Furthermore, the eastern Asian species were shown to have higher niche overlap with the eastern North American species. The EA species were also shown to share more similar habitats with ENA species than with WNA species in the genus. Chamaecyparis species in WNA experienced a significant niche shift compared with congeneric species. Chamaecyparis had a low number of suitable regions in Europe and the middle and western NA during the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM) period, and became extinct in the former region whereas it retains residual distribution in the latter. The extirpations in western NA and Europe in response to the late Neogene and Quaternary climatic cooling and the more similar habitats between ENA and EA ultimately shaped the current intercontinental disjunct distribution of Chamaecyparis. Both current hypotheses may be also jointly applied to explain more eastern Asian and eastern North American disjunctions observed today.

Partial Oscillation of m-dimensional Logistic Ecologic Models

We present and discuss the partial oscillation with respect to equilibrium state ofm-dimensional Logistic delay ecologic models, and obtain some simple criteria.

Additions of landscape metrics improve predictions of occurrence of species distribution models

Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape metrics. We examined the relative impacts of landscape predictors on the accuracy of habitat models by constructing distribution models at regional scales incorporating environmental variables (climate, topography, vegetation, and soil types) and secondary species occurrence data, and using them to predict the occurrence of 36 species in 15 forest fragments where we conducted rapid surveys. We then selected six landscape predictors at the landscape scale and ran general linear models of species presence/absence with either a single scale predictor (the probabilities of occurrence of the distribution models or landscape variables) or multiple scale predictors (distribution models + one landscape variable). Our results indicated that distribution models alone had poor predictive abilities but were improved when landscape predictors were added; the species responses were not, however, similar to the multiple scale predictors. Our study thus highlights the importance of considering landscape metrics to generate more accurate habitat suitability models.

An interactive simulation model of urban ecosystem and its implementation

An interactive simulation model is established based on the methodology of 'sensitivity model' (SM) during the cooperative research process between the founders of SM and the authors. And the conceptual framework of SM is developed into the interactively qualitative and quantitative simulation model presented in this paper, which makes it possible to break down a complex urban ecosystem into simple and visual quantitative or qualitative relationships between the factors. By studying the dynamic responses of the system to the changes of the inputs and parameters of the model, future trends in urban development can be predicted and strategies formulated. The whole process is realized on micro-computer in the course of man-computer interaction. Its potential use is shown in a case of Tianjin City.

The Application of Ecosystem Dynamic Model in Xiamen Bay

This paper is to establish a nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients cycle-based numerical model of ecological dynamics for Xiamen Bay on the basis of the existing three-dimensional barocline hydrodynamic model. The calculation results show that the estuarine district of Jiulongjiang estuary has the highest inorganic nitrogen concentration followed by the West Harbor, which demonstrates that Jiulongjiang River is the main input source of inorganic nitrogen in Xiamen Bay. The West Harbor has relatively high concentration of nutrients caused by the huge land pollution emission and its own poor water exchange capacity; while the distribution rules of phytoplankton biomass correspond with those of phosphates, demonstrating Xiamen Bay＇s phytoplankton controlled by phosphorus; the haloplankton biomass differs slightly, presenting the gradual reduction from the interior part to the exterior part of the bay.

Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay

Bayesian networks （BN） have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling （SEM）. In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model＇s accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay.

A Study on the Ecological Teaching Model of College English from the Perspective of Ecological Linguistics

Teachers' teaching concepts, language skills and so on are directly related to teaching methods, and have a profound impact on English teaching. Eco-linguistics is mainly an interdisciplinary subject of language development and change from the perspective of ecology. It is helpful to create a favorable teaching environment, arouse students' interest in learning and improve the quality of classroom teaching. With the help of application tools such as"Rain classroom", this paper mainly focuses on the ecological teaching mode of college English from the perspective of ecological linguistics in detail such as individualized assignment and group work etc, hoping to be helpful to the relevant personnel.

Stability and Uniform Boundedness for a Class of Anaerobic Digestion Ecological Models

Stability, boundedness and persistence are three important aspects for an ecological model. In this paper, a further analysis of a class of anaerobic digestion ecological models is performed. Based on the Liupunov Method, the local stability of all equilibria in the system is got. According to the vector fields described by the system, the proof of the boundedness of the solution on the anaerobic digestion processes is completed in three steps. The method proposed in the discussion on the boundedness can be generalized to the similar problems. Results in this paper give information on how to run the ecological system well by adjusting the system parameters.