Economic Effects

The past two years have witnessed great fluctuations ininternational oil prices,and diplomatic efforts,both above andunder the table,by major powers around this issue.The currenttension in the war-threatened Iraq has added more uncertainties to thefuture world oil situation.Will the world oil supply and demand change?What impact would this exert on big powers’ oil strategy choices,geopolitics as well as world economy?What should China do in such asituation?To find the answers to these questions,at the invitation of theeditor of the Contemporary International Relations,seven experts fromChina Institute of Contemporary International Relations gathered to have adiscussion in early February this year.Naturally,they have differentviews over many issues.Still,we hope our readers would find theirdiscussion interesting.Following is the list of participants.

The Economic Effect of the Housing Refurbishment in Urban Regeneration

With the increasing ratio of self-owned housing, the demand for new building as gradually reduced. In other words, the demand of refurbishment becomes more urgent. The major objective of this paper is to explore and investigate the consumer behavior of housing renovation. We plan to explore the direct effects of housing refurbishment or restoration on the housing prices, and then the indirect effects of an externality spilled over to the neighbor. We will understand the overall effects to provide a preliminary estimate of the changing in the economic value resulting from the change in the housing refurbishment or restoration of buildings. This research also dig into how the effects in the housing refurbishment or restoration in Taipei city ＆ Kaohsiung city. The purpose is to investigate the driving force on the housing restoration. This study will be the empirical study on the economic values by using hedonic price model. The result will be useful on the decision-making on the urban regeneration by the way of housing restoration and suggests that property owners of a housing estate will benefit from participating on refurbishment in Taiwan.

Economic Effects of China’s Import Expansion Strategy

Since 2018,China has enacted a string of policy initiatives to increase imports.To quantify this import expansion strategy’s economic effects,we created a large numerical general equilibrium model and quantitatively simulated the economic effects of the reductions of tariff and non-tariff barriers on China and other economies.Our simulation results show that overall,China’s import expansion strategy benefited both itself and others and contributed to employment,welfare,and trade growth in China and the rest of the world.In relative terms,however,China’s import expansion strategy benefited other countries more than it did itself and contributed more to the growth of the world economy.Additionally,the import expansion strategy may effectively promote China’s trade balance,and the trade equilibrium effect driven by the reduction of non-tariff barriers is more significant than that of tariff barriers.Furthermore,regarding the self-benefiting effects of import expansion,the effects of nontariff measures are significantly greater than those of tariff measures,and this result has policy implications for China’s import expansion strategy going forward.

Economic Effect of Rural Labor Transfer in China

With the continuous development of China’s economy and the acceleration of urbanization,more and more rural labor force is gradually transferred to cities and non-agricultural industries.Although the transfer of rural labor force can increase farmers’income,improve farmers’quality of life,and accelerate the process of urbanization and agricultural modernization in China,the unreasonable transfer of rural labor force has also brought some problems to China’s agricultural development.This paper mainly through the method of combining theoretical derivation and empirical analysis,using the data from 2010 to 2015 to analyze,study the influence of rural labor transfer on agricultural production,explore the relationship between rural labor transfer and agricultural development and provide relevant policy suggestions.

Effect of total resource allocation effect and economic growth:Chinese experience of 1978-2004

The analytical method of total resource reallocation effect is an evolution of the analytical method of the factors of economic growth. Since the marketization reform in China in 1978, market mechanism has played a more and more important role in resource allocation, and Chinese economy has developed greatly, which is called "the Chinese Miracle". This paper analyzes the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2004 with the analytical method of total resource reallocation effect. The result shows that the annual growth rate of total resource reallocation effect was 0.2%, which was 5.1% of the comprehensive productivity and 0.21% of the gross output growth, i.e. the total resource allocation played a weak role in the economic growth in China. When analyzing it in Chenery's multinational model, we find that Chinese comprehensive productivity growth rate was higher than that in all the income phases of the model, but the total resource allocation effect was obviously lower than that in all the income phases of the model. It indicates that the total resource allocation in China has a great potential, and that to accelerate marketization reform is one of the important issues for Chinese economic development.

Analysis and Innovative Strategies of Tax Preferential Policies to Promote the Sustainable Development of Small-Scale Individual Businesses

This study conducted an in-depth analysis of the current tax preferential policies for small-scale individual businesses and compared them with similar policies both domestically and internationally,aiming to reveal the advantages and disadvantages of the current system.After examining the impact of these tax preferential policies on the economic status of individual business owners and the broader social economy,this article proposes a set of innovative tax preferential strategies based on theoretical foundations.By developing these innovative strategies and clarifying their implementation paths,the aim is to promote the sustainable and healthy development of small-scale individual businesses,thereby fostering comprehensive socio-economic progress.The conclusion of this study not only summarizes policy recommendations with practical significance but also provides theoretical support for the optimization and innovation of future related systems.

Research on the effect estimation of seismic safety evaluation

Seismic safety evaluation is a basic work for determining the seismic resistance requirements of major construc-tion projects. The effect, especially the economic effect of the seismic safety evaluation has been generally con-cerned. The paper gives a model for estimating the effect of seismic safety evaluation and calculates roughly the economic effect of seismic safety evaluation with some examples.

Key Problems and Countermeasures in CO_(2)Flooding and Storage

Based on literature research in combination with the practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield,this study assesses the key problems in CO_(2)flooding and storage,proposing the corresponding countermeasures from five aspects of CO_(2)gas source condition,namely geological condition evaluation,scheme design incoordination with other production methods,economic and effectiveness evaluation,together with dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation.The results show that CO_(2)flooding is the most economic and effective CO_(2)storage method.In eastern China,inorganic origin CO_(2)gas reservoirs are widely developed and are especially the most enriched in the Paleozoic carbonate rock strata and the Cenozoic Paleogene–Neogene system,which provide a rich resource base for CO_(2)flooding and storage.In the future,CO_(2)generated in the industrial field will become the main gas source of CO_(2)flooding and storage.The evaluation of geological conditions of oil and gas reservoirs is the basis for the potential evaluation,planning scheme design and implementation of CO_(2)flooding and storage.CO_(2)storage should be below the depth of 800 m,the CO_(2)flooding and storage effects in lowpermeability oil reservoirs being the best.CO_(2)geological storage mechanisms primarily consist of tectonic geological storage,bound gas storage,dissolution storage,mineralization storage,hydrodynamic storage and coalbed adsorption storage.The practice of CO_(2)flooding and storage in Jilin Oilfield demonstratesthat the oil increment by CO_(2)flooding is at least 24%higher than by conventional water flooding.The most critical factor determining the success or failure of CO_(2)flooding and storage is economic effectiveness,which needs to be explored from two aspects:the method and technology innovation along with the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality policy support.After CO_(2)is injected into the reservoir,it will react with the reservoir and fluid,the problem of CO_(2)recovery or overflow will occur,so the dynamic monitoring and safety evaluation of CO_(2)flooding and storage are very important.This study is of great significance to the expansion of the application scope of CO_(2)flooding and storage and future scientific planning and deployment.

Research on the Influence of the Digital Economy on Transforming Consumption Behavior Among Residents

Drawing on the essence of Marxist consumer economy theory,this paper argues that the innovations of digital technology can effectively facilitate the integration of economies of scale,economies of scope,and long-tail economies.Through careful analysis of the practical case of Xiaomi’s business ecosystem,this paper highlights the notion that data serve as both a key production factor and a critical consumption carrier within the context of digital consumption.We thoroughly investigated the influence of the digital economy on transforming consumption behavior among residents by analyzing a range of typical business cases and the latest data that triggered this transformation.Based on the analysis,this paper argues that such transformation can lead to the platform agglomeration effect,the inclusive diffusion effect,and the push-pull effect by highlighting the specific ways in which the digital economy disrupts the consumption-production model and contributes to the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries.Additionally,this paper demonstrates how the digital economy can expand and promote emerging business forms,providing insights into the ways in which digital innovation is reshaping the contemporary economic landscape.This study intends to provide several policy suggestions that can expand domestic demand,promote consumption,drive the high-quality and integrated development of China’s digital and real economy,and position China as a strong cyber and consumer nation by using digitalized consumption as a starting point.

Catalytic co-combustion of biomass and brown coal in a fluidized bed:Economic and environmental benefits

The work is devoted to the study of combustion of brown coal,pine sawdust,and their mixtures in a fluidized bed of catalyst at 600-750℃.It is shown that an increase in the content of sawdust in a mixture with brown coal leads to an increase in the burnout degree of solid fuel from 94.4%to 99.9%,while the emission of greenhouse gases in the form of CO_(2)CO and NOxis reduced(CO_(2)from the biomass is not included in the balance).The high content of alkaline earth metal oxides(CaO and MgO)in the mineral part of brown coal,sawdust,and their mixtures eliminates the emission of sulfur oxides and the slagging of heat-exchange surfaces during the combustion in a fluidized bed of catalyst.The optimal temperature,when the highest burnout degree of the above fuels is achieved in the combustion is 750℃.It is also shown that the increase in temperature and the content of sawdust in the composition of the fuel mixtures has a positive effect on the economic and environmental process indicators.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

China's Economic Growth:The“Two-Dimensional Driving Effect”of Data Factors

Data factors have become one of the five essential production factors,but their role in economic growth has always been ambiguous.Starting from AI technologies,this paper establishes an endogenous growth model of data factors affecting economic growth,constructs the generation path and value path of data factors,and estimates the value of new data factors at the provincial level in China from 1999 to 2018 accordingly.Based on theoretical analyses and empirical tests,it clarifes that data factors have a“two-dimensional driving effect”on China's economic growth,that is,data factors can drive growth both directly through its own economic growth effect and indirectly by promoting technological progress.Furthermore,this paper makes three extended discussions,aiming to make a trial study on the impacts of local government big data transaction platforms on data factors and their growth effects,discuss whether it is possible to reduce the uncertainties of local economic policy based on the nature of data factors,and make a preliminary survey of the output elasticity of data factors between 1999 and 2018.

The economic impacts of cataract surgery on sustainable vision and quality of life in Katsina state

Background:This study investigates the economic impacts of eye care interventions on the quality of life in Katsina state.Eye care intervention is a requirement for equitable and inclusive development in the state.Methods:The study used a survey method and 5-point Likert scale questionnaire to collect data.A multistage sampling strategy was employed to select 300 beneficiaries from the existing beneficiaries of Noor Dubai Foundation(NDF)eye care interventions.Results:The findings show that cataract surgery interventions improve economic benefits and quality of life of beneficiaries in Katsina state.The results show that productivity,income,employability,dignity and skills of beneficiaries have improved significantly after the cataract surgery.Precisely,96.2%of the beneficiaries agree that their productivity has improved;99.6%of the beneficiaries revealed that their income has improved;99%of respondents evidence that their employability has improved;90%of beneficiaries have experienced an improvement in their dignity;while 97%agreed that their skills have improved.Conclusion:The implication of these findings is that poor eye health is negatively related to economic benefits and quality of life while good eye health is a vital determinant of standard of living.Without good eye health,it is hard to participate in the labour force,produce goods and earn income.Thus,the Katsina state government should further improve awareness of good eye health to mitigate preventable cases of blindness for equitable and inclusive development.

Predicting the distribution of reservoirs by applying the method of seismic data structure characteristics： Example from the eighth zone in Tahe Oilfield

Seismic data structure characteristics means the waveform character arranged in the time sequence at discrete data points in each 2-D or 3-D seismic trace. Hydrocarbon prediction using seismic data structure characteristics is a new reservoir prediction technique. When the main pay interval is in carbonate fracture and fissure-cavern type reservoirs with very strong inhomogeneity, there are some difficulties with hydrocarbon prediction. Because of the special geological conditions of the eighth zone in the Tahe oil field, we apply seismic data structure characteristics to hydrocarbon prediction for the Ordovician reservoir in this zone. We divide the area oil zone into favorable and unfavorable blocks. Eighteen well locations were proposed in the favorable oil block, drilled, and recovered higher output of oil and gas.

Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

Modeling and Simulation of Skid-mounted LNG Plants Using HYSYS Software

This study presents three kinds of skid-mounted plants, including single mixed refrigerant cycle （MRC）, nitrogen expander cycle, and natural gas （NG） Claude cycle. Hysys simulation shows that single MRC is the most efficient cycle among the three. The specific power of single MRC liquefiers is 1 485 k.l/kg, 15% higher than that of large liquefaction process. Considering the recovery of stranded-gas, commercial analysis suggests that the initial cost of LNG plants ranging from 1 to 100 ms/day can be paid back in 2 to 4 years.

Empirical Study About the Application of Knowledge Management in Selected Sector of Industry in Slovakia

This study focuses on the analysis of the application of knowledge management in companies in selected sector of industry in Slovakia after Slovakia entering into Euro area in 2009. Based on relevant experience, main conditions and problems associated with the implementation are analyzed through fundamental empirical survey. The necessity of utilization of information and communication technologies, management information systems innovation and long life education in companies are considered in knowledge-based company in knowledge-based society. Further possibilities of application and expected economic effects and benefits on growth and international competitiveness of companies in European Union, Euro area in many fields are outlined in the end of this article as the main aim of this study

New type steam turbine for cogeneration

A concept of energy saving & efficiency improving from cold source for cogeneration steam turbine was discussed herein. A new type "NCB" cogeneration steam turbine was proposed,which could considerably increase heat supply capacity,thermal efficiency and electric power. Taking 300 MW cogeneration steam turbine as an example,the results show that heat supply capacity reaches the maximum,i.e. increases by 30 %,thermal efficiency is improved by 12 %,and electric power is enhanced by 15 MW during peak heat load.

休闲之经济学分析

从经济学角度阐述休闲,并对休闲产生的收入、价格、时间、偏好4个基本条件进行了分析,最后从宏观和微观上对休闲的效用进行了评价。

Variable Parameter Nonlinear Control for Maximum Power Point Tracking Considering Mitigation of Drive-train Load

Since mechanical loads exert a significant influence on the life span of wind turbines, the reduction of transient load on drive-train shaft has received more attention when implementing a maximum power point tracking U+0028 MPPT U+0029 controller. Moreover, a trade-off between the efficiency of wind energy extraction and the load level of drive-train shaft becomes a key issue. However, for the existing control strategies based on nonlinear model of wind turbines, the MPPT efficiencies are improved at the cost of the intensive fluctuation of generator torque and significant increase of transient load on drive train shaft. Hence, in this paper, a nonlinear controller with variable parameter is proposed for improving MPPT efficiency and mitigating transient load on drive-train simultaneously. Then, simulations on FAST U+0028 Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence U+0029 code and experiments on the wind turbine simulator U+0028 WTS U+0029 based test bench are presented to verify the efficiency improvement of the proposed control strategy with less cost of drive-train load. © 2017 Chinese Association of Automation.