Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, i...Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.展开更多
Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim...Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.展开更多
Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been d...Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.展开更多
In accordance with principles and methods of ecology, the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern sub...In accordance with principles and methods of ecology, the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China were studied. Based on the field data and measurements, a multivariable stepwise regression model was established to analyze the effects of multiple environmental factors on the productivity of the forest ecosystems. This model was used to assess the volume and economic losses of these two forest ecosystems caused by acidic deposition. The result showed that, among the environmental factors, pH value of precipitation, soil depth, soil organic contents and slope are the dominant ones influencing the growth of masson pine forest. It was also shown that the acidic deposition has no clear relation to the growth of C.Campora forest, so development of such broad leaved forest is suitable in the area.展开更多
As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,...As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited.This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 s.The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),respectively.Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) CNY.We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,respectively.The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater.These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.展开更多
Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating met...Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326 81 billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4 1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1 5 in the only 7 years.展开更多
This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global te...This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable diseases shortly.展开更多
Livestock rearing and agriculture are the main sources of community-based livelihoods in western Nepal.Across the rural mid-hills region of Gandaki Province,leopards are the top predator and frequently depredate lives...Livestock rearing and agriculture are the main sources of community-based livelihoods in western Nepal.Across the rural mid-hills region of Gandaki Province,leopards are the top predator and frequently depredate livestock and attack humans.Spatiotemporal patterns of human-leopard conflicts(HLC) in Nepal are poorly known at the provincial and national scales,which are essential to formulating effective conflict mitigation strategies and implementing them in the field.This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of HLC by applying Maxent modeling to covariates relating to known and registered conflict cases(n=842) collected from Nepalese government offices.We found that cases of HLC have been increasing significantly over the past five years.We also concluded that mid-elevation,south-facing slopes were more susceptible to HLC,but that mean annual temperature was by far the most important predictor of HLC;overall livestock density and proximity to roads were also important,but secondarily so.Although we found the increase in human fatalities to 2.16/year was significant(p<0.05),overall human injuries were down slightly,though not significantly(5.16/year;p>0.05).However,we also found an increasing trend in livestock depredation rates for this same five-year period(p<0.05),which averaged 159.6 head/year among incidents reported.We also found that winter was the main season when depredations occurred,and that goats were the most depredated of all livestock.A total US $86,892.25($17,378.45/year) of economic losses were incurred by communities during this time,with 78.57% of the total value reimbursed as compensatory relief through the government’s relief fund.We recommend that the use of predator-proof livestock corrals,greater awareness in local communities about wildlife behavior,better animal husbandry and security practices,and a more efficient compensation program,can improve coexistence between leopard populations and human communities in western Nepal.展开更多
Fasciolosis and hydatidosis are the world’s most common zoonotic major parasitic ailments of domesticated animals with financial and public health implications.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 384 randomly se...Fasciolosis and hydatidosis are the world’s most common zoonotic major parasitic ailments of domesticated animals with financial and public health implications.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 384 randomly selected cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for co-infection of hydatidosis and fasciolosis using the ante-and postmortem examination techniques.Of the 384 examined cattle,4.17%were found to harbor co-infections of hydatidosis and fasciolosis.Similarly,the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infections was 76.56%and 23.44%in local and crossbred animals,respectively.The current study took into account risk factors such as age,breed,origin,and body condition score;however,there is a statistically insignificant association between the risk factors and the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infection.In this study,overall fasciolosis was recorded at a rate of 9.38%,with the highest prevalence of F.hepatica at 8.59%,followed by unidentified flukes at 4.17%and F.gigantica at 0.78%.Likewise,the single prevalence of hydatidosis was recorded at 10.94%.Of the 142 examined cysts,the liver alone harbors 54 cysts,and the lung alone harbors 88 cysts,with a total of 43 calcified,21 sterile,56 viable,9 nonviable,and 13 mixed cysts.The predicted yearly financial loss from organ condemnation was 15,436,142.00 ETB Birr.This study demonstrated that hydatidosis and fasciolosis are two relatively widespread parasite diseases of cattle in Ethiopia,causing significant economic loss attributable to organ rejection and indirect weight loss.Thus,awareness of the impact of the disease on the community could disrupt the parasite’s life cycle,and its economic significance was forwarded to other points.展开更多
Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, beha...Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.展开更多
An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic loss...An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of disaster losses are expected to provide a preliminary scientific reference for governments to carry out the targeted deployment of emergency rescue and post-disaster reconstruction.展开更多
South China has become the third largest region associated with acid deposition following Europe and North America, the area subject to damage by acid deposition increased from 1.75 million km 2 in 1985 to 2.8 millio...South China has become the third largest region associated with acid deposition following Europe and North America, the area subject to damage by acid deposition increased from 1.75 million km 2 in 1985 to 2.8 million km 2 in 1993. Acid deposition has caused serious damage to ecosystem. Combined pollution of acid rain and SO 2 showed the obvious multiple effects on crops. Vegetable was more sensitive to acid deposition than foodstuff crops. Annual economic loss of crops due to acid deposition damage in eleven provinces of south China was 4.26 billion RMB Yuan. Acid deposition caused serious damage to forest. Annual economic loss of wood volume was about 1.8 billion RMB Yuan and forest ecological benefit loss 16.2 billion in eleven provinces of south China. Acid deposition in south China was typical “sulfuric acid type”. According to the thoughts of sustainable development, some strategies were brought forward as follows: (1) enhancing environmental management, specifying acid\|controlling region, controlling and abating the total emission amount of SO 2; (2) selecting practical energy technologies of clean coal, for example, cleansing and selecting coal, sulfur\|fixed\|type industrial briqutting, abating sulfur from waste gas and so on; (3) developing other energy sources to replace coal, including water electricity, atomic energy and the new energy such as solar energy, wind energy and so on; (4) in acid deposition region of south China, selecting acid\|resistant type of crop and tree to decrease agricultural losses, planting more green fertilizer crops, using organic fertilizers and liming, in order to improve buffer capacities of soil.展开更多
Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthqua...Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.展开更多
Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster clust...Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.展开更多
With the growth of energy consumption, energy-related environmental pollution has become increasingly serious, which in turn causes enormous economic loss because of public health damage, corrosion of materials, crop ...With the growth of energy consumption, energy-related environmental pollution has become increasingly serious, which in turn causes enormous economic loss because of public health damage, corrosion of materials, crop yield reduction, and other factors. Evaluating economic loss caused by energy-related environmental pollution can contribute to decision making in energy management. A framework for evaluating economic loss from environmental pollution produced during energy production, transportation, and consumption is proposed in this paper. Regarding SO2, PMlo, and solid waste as the main pollutants, economic losses from health damage, materials corrosion, crop yield reduction, and solid waste pollution are estimated based on multiple concentration-response relationships and dos^response functions. The proposed framework and evaluation methods are applied to Beijing, China. It is evident that total economic loss attributable to energy-related environ-mental pollution fluctuated during 2000-2011 but had a general growth trend, with the highest value reaching 2.3× 108 CNY (China Yuan) in 2006. Economic loss caused by health damage contributes most to the total loss among the four measured damage types. The total economic loss strongly correlates with the amount of energy consumption, especially for oil and electricity. Our evaluation framework and methods can be used widely to measure the potential impact of environmental pollution in the energy lifecycle.展开更多
Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong on September 16,2018,necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal,No.10 Hurricane Signal.Packing ferocious winds and record-breaking storm surge,Mangkh...Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong on September 16,2018,necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal,No.10 Hurricane Signal.Packing ferocious winds and record-breaking storm surge,Mangkhut brought the most serious and widespread destruction to the territory in the recent three decades.A series of post event information search,field visits and damage surveys has been conducted by the Hong Kong Observatory(HKO)and the findings on the damages and impacts caused by Mangkhut in different parts of the territory are documented in this paper.Moreover,by analyzing the economic loss data reported by various government departments,public utilities and organizations in Hong Kong and the statistics on insurance claims from the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers(HKFI),the estimated direct economic loss due to Mangkhut in Hong Kong is about HK$4.60 billion,which is about 3.8 times to that of Super Typhoon Hato in 2017.On the contrary,in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the estimated direct economic loss due to Hato is significantly higher than that of Mangkhut.This could be attributed to the early and effective warnings for Mangkhut,increased public awareness and typhoon preparedness for Mangkhut in 2018 since the fierce attack of Hato in 2017,and infrastructure enhancement of the major impact areas.展开更多
Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagge...Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process.The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.We identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns.Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns.Because the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)curves.We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy years.Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province.As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.展开更多
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas(hereinafter referred to as“2+26”cities)are one of the most severe air pollution areas in China.The fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and surface ozone(O_(3))pollution h...Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas(hereinafter referred to as“2+26”cities)are one of the most severe air pollution areas in China.The fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and surface ozone(O_(3))pollution have aroused a significant concern on the national scale.In this study,we analyzed the pollution characteristics of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) in“2+26”cities,and then estimated the health burden and economic loss before and after the implementation of the joint PM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy.During 2017–2019,PM_(2.5) concentration reduced by 19%while the maximum daily 8 hr average(MDA8)O_(3) stayed stable in“2+26”cities.Spatially,PM_(2.5) pollution in the south-central area and O_(3) pollution in the central region were more severe than anywhere else.With the reduction in PM_(2.5) concentration,premature deaths fromPM_(2.5) decreased by 18%from 2017 to 2019.In contrast,premature deaths from O_(3) increased by 5%.Noticeably,the huge potential health benefits can be gained after the implementation of a joint PM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy.The premature deaths attributed to PM_(2.5) and O_(3) would be reduced by 91.6%and 89.1%,and the avoidable economic loss would be 60.8 billion Chinese Yuan(CNY),and 68.4 billion CNY in 2035 compared with that in 2019,respectively.Therefore,it is of significance to implement the jointPM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy for improving public health and economic development.展开更多
基金support from CONACYT for the Basic Science Project 134575Scientific Research Coordination of the Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolás de Hidalgo,Project 1.37-2013.
文摘Subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal is a complex hydrogeological process affecting numerous cities settled on top of fluviolacustrine deposits. The discrete spatial variation in the thickness of these deposits, in combination with subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal, generates differential settlements and aseismic ground failure (AGF) characterized by a welldefined scarp. In cities, such AGF causes severe damages to urban infrastructure and considerable economic impact. With the goal of arriving to a general criterion for evaluating the economic losses derived from AGF, in the present work we propose the following equation: ELi = PVi*DFi. Where PVi is the value of a property “i”, and DFi is a depreciation factor caused by structural damages of a property “i” due to AGF. The DFi is calculated empirically through: . This last equation is based on the spatial relations of coexistence and proximity of property polygons and the AGF axis. The coexistence is valued as the quotient of the affectation area divided by the total area of the involved property;and the proximity to the AGF axis is expressed as the inverse of the perpendicular distance from the centroid of the property polygon to the AGF axis. The sum of these terms is divided by two to determine the percentage that affects the property value (PVi). These equations are relevant because it is the first indicator designed for the discrete assessment of the economic impacts due to AGF, and can be applied to real estate infrastructure from either urban or rural areas.
文摘China’s economic losses from the January winter storms keep escalating. The Ministry of Civil Affairs estimated that the direct economic losses valued
文摘Brucellosis is an infectious disease of worldwide distribution, which has a great economic impact due to the productive and reproductive losses that it causes, in addition to the serious public health problem. The aim of this study is to estimate the economic losses, through financial analysis, caused by bovine brucellosis in the province of Carchi, over a one-year period. A random sampling was used to determine the prevalence in the study area, where 2976 animals were considered, and the Rose Bengal (RB) test was used as a screening test and the Fluorescence Polarized Assay (FPA) as a confirmatory test, obtaining a prevalence of 8.2% (244/2976). In addition, parameters associated to the losses caused by brucellosis in cattle were determined by literature review. To estimate costs, field information was collected through a survey of a total of 100 randomly selected farmers. The loss estimated due to calves lost as a result of abortions and neonatal death was USD. 79170.00. The loss due to death of 4 cows as a result of metritis was estimated at USD. 5000.00. The cost of examination and treatment of aborted cows was USD. 20100.00. The losses due to reduction in milk production from aborted and non-aborted seropositive cows were estimated at USD. 158114.21. The financial losses due to brucellosis in province of Carchi were estimated at USD. 262384.21.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2015CB452806)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41701103)
文摘Loss normalization is the prerequisite for understanding the effects of socioeconomic development,vulnerability, and climate changes on the economic losses from tropical cyclones. In China, limited studies have been done on loss normalization methods of damages caused by tropical cyclones, and most of them have adopted an administrative division-based approach to define the exposure levels. In this study, a hazard footprint-based normalization method was proposed to improve the spatial resolution of affected areas and the associated exposures to influential tropical cyclones in China. The meteorological records of precipitation and near-surface wind speed were used to identify the hazard footprint of each influential tropical cyclone. Provincial-level and national-level(total)economic loss normalization(PLN and TLN) were carried out based on the respective hazard footprints, covering loss records between 1999–2015 and 1983–2015, respectively.Socioeconomic factors—inflation, population, and wealth(GDP per capita)—were used to normalize the losses. A significant increasing trend was found in inflation-adjusted losses during 1983–2015, while no significant trend was found after normalization with the TLN method. The proposed hazard footprint-based method contributes to amore realistic estimation of the population and wealth affected by the influential tropical cyclones for the original year and the present scenario.
文摘In accordance with principles and methods of ecology, the effects of acidic deposition on productivity and volume increment of masson pine and Cinnamomum campora forest which are widely distributed in southern suburbs of Chongqing, China were studied. Based on the field data and measurements, a multivariable stepwise regression model was established to analyze the effects of multiple environmental factors on the productivity of the forest ecosystems. This model was used to assess the volume and economic losses of these two forest ecosystems caused by acidic deposition. The result showed that, among the environmental factors, pH value of precipitation, soil depth, soil organic contents and slope are the dominant ones influencing the growth of masson pine forest. It was also shown that the acidic deposition has no clear relation to the growth of C.Campora forest, so development of such broad leaved forest is suitable in the area.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41690141)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFC1510500)。
文摘As important freshwater resources in alpine basins,glaciers and snow cover tend to decline due to climate warming,thus affecting the amount of water available downstream and even regional economic development.However,impact assessments of the economic losses caused by reductions in freshwater supply are quite limited.This study aims to project changes in glacier meltwater and snowmelt of the Urumqi River in the Tianshan Mountains under future climate change scenarios(RCP2.6(RCP,Representative Concentration Pathway),RCP4.5,and RCP8.5)by applying a hydrological model and estimate the economic losses from future meltwater reduction for industrial,agricultural,service,and domestic water uses combined with the present value method for the 2030 s,2050 s,2070 s,and 2090 s.The results indicate that total annual glacier meltwater and snowmelt will decrease by 65.6%and 74.5%under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios by the 2090 s relative to the baseline period(1980-2010),respectively.Compared to the RCP2.6 scenario,the projected economic loss values of total water use from reduced glacier meltwater and snowmelt under the RCP8.5 scenario will increase by 435.10×10^(6) and 537.20×10^(6) CNY in the 2050 s and 2090 s,respectively,and the cumulative economic loss value for 2099 is approximately 2124.00×10^(6) CNY.We also find that the industrial and agricultural sectors would likely face the largest and smallest economic losses,respectively.The economic loss value of snowmelt in different sectorial sectors is greater than that of glacier meltwater.These findings highlight the need for climate mitigation actions,industrial transformation,and rational water allocation to be considered in decision-making in the Tianshan Mountains in the future.
文摘Land degradation is a consequence stemming from both natural processes and social economic activities. On the bases of analyzing general situation of agricultural land degradation in China, the monetary estimating methods such as market value method and shadow engineering method were used to quantitatively assess the economic loss resulting from land deterioration. Results showed that the economic loss in 1999 was 326 81 billion RMB Yuan, which accounted for 4 1% of GDP in the same year of China. If taking five items namely farmland conversion, soil erosion, salinization, decline in reservoir functions, and siltation in waterways and, comparing with that in 1992, the percentage of economic loss to GDP has increased by 1 5 in the only 7 years.
文摘This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable diseases shortly.
基金NORHED SURNEM project, Institute of Forestry, Kathmandu for providing financial support fieldwork。
文摘Livestock rearing and agriculture are the main sources of community-based livelihoods in western Nepal.Across the rural mid-hills region of Gandaki Province,leopards are the top predator and frequently depredate livestock and attack humans.Spatiotemporal patterns of human-leopard conflicts(HLC) in Nepal are poorly known at the provincial and national scales,which are essential to formulating effective conflict mitigation strategies and implementing them in the field.This study aims to analyze the spatiotemporal pattern of HLC by applying Maxent modeling to covariates relating to known and registered conflict cases(n=842) collected from Nepalese government offices.We found that cases of HLC have been increasing significantly over the past five years.We also concluded that mid-elevation,south-facing slopes were more susceptible to HLC,but that mean annual temperature was by far the most important predictor of HLC;overall livestock density and proximity to roads were also important,but secondarily so.Although we found the increase in human fatalities to 2.16/year was significant(p<0.05),overall human injuries were down slightly,though not significantly(5.16/year;p>0.05).However,we also found an increasing trend in livestock depredation rates for this same five-year period(p<0.05),which averaged 159.6 head/year among incidents reported.We also found that winter was the main season when depredations occurred,and that goats were the most depredated of all livestock.A total US $86,892.25($17,378.45/year) of economic losses were incurred by communities during this time,with 78.57% of the total value reimbursed as compensatory relief through the government’s relief fund.We recommend that the use of predator-proof livestock corrals,greater awareness in local communities about wildlife behavior,better animal husbandry and security practices,and a more efficient compensation program,can improve coexistence between leopard populations and human communities in western Nepal.
文摘Fasciolosis and hydatidosis are the world’s most common zoonotic major parasitic ailments of domesticated animals with financial and public health implications.A cross-sectional study was conducted on 384 randomly selected cattle slaughtered at Wolaita Sodo municipal abattoir to estimate the prevalence and associated risk factors for co-infection of hydatidosis and fasciolosis using the ante-and postmortem examination techniques.Of the 384 examined cattle,4.17%were found to harbor co-infections of hydatidosis and fasciolosis.Similarly,the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infections was 76.56%and 23.44%in local and crossbred animals,respectively.The current study took into account risk factors such as age,breed,origin,and body condition score;however,there is a statistically insignificant association between the risk factors and the prevalence of concurrent fasciolosis and hydatidosis infection.In this study,overall fasciolosis was recorded at a rate of 9.38%,with the highest prevalence of F.hepatica at 8.59%,followed by unidentified flukes at 4.17%and F.gigantica at 0.78%.Likewise,the single prevalence of hydatidosis was recorded at 10.94%.Of the 142 examined cysts,the liver alone harbors 54 cysts,and the lung alone harbors 88 cysts,with a total of 43 calcified,21 sterile,56 viable,9 nonviable,and 13 mixed cysts.The predicted yearly financial loss from organ condemnation was 15,436,142.00 ETB Birr.This study demonstrated that hydatidosis and fasciolosis are two relatively widespread parasite diseases of cattle in Ethiopia,causing significant economic loss attributable to organ rejection and indirect weight loss.Thus,awareness of the impact of the disease on the community could disrupt the parasite’s life cycle,and its economic significance was forwarded to other points.
文摘Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2020YFB0204701)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41922024&42204054)the Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Geophysical High-resolution Imaging Technology(Grant No.2022B1212010002).
文摘An M6.8 earthquake occurred in Luding,Sichuan Province,China,on September 5,2022.Since towns and villages in the earthquake-stricken area are densely populated,the earthquake caused severe fatalities and economic losses.Rapid estimation of earthquake intensity and disaster losses is significantly important for post-earthquake emergency rescue,scientific anti-seismic deployment,and the reduction of casualties and economic losses.Therefore,we make a preliminary rapid estimation of the earthquake intensity and disaster losses in the aftermath of the Luding earthquake.The seismic intensity represents the distribution of earthquake disasters and the degree of ground damage and can be directly converted from the peak ground velocity(PGV)map.To obtain a reliable PGV distribution map of this earthquake,we combined the finite-fault model constrained by seismic observations,with the complex three-dimensional(3D)geological environment and topographical features to perform strong ground motion simulation.Then,we compared the consistency between the simulated ground motion waveforms and observations,indicating the plausibility and reliability of simulations.In addition,we transformed the PGV simulation results into intensity and obtained a physics-based map of the intensity distribution of the Luding earthquake.The maximum simulated intensity of this earthquake is IX,which is consistent with the maximum intensity determined from the postearthquake field survey.Based on the simulated seismic intensity map of the Luding earthquake and the earthquake disaster loss estimation model,we rapidly estimated the death and economic losses caused by this earthquake.The estimated results show that the death toll caused by this earthquake is probably 50-300,with a mathematic expectation of 89.Thus the government should launch a Level II earthquake emergency response plan.The economic losses are likely to be 10-100 billion RMB,with a mathematical expectation of 23.205 billion RMB.Such seismic intensity simulations and rapid estimation of disaster losses are expected to provide a preliminary scientific reference for governments to carry out the targeted deployment of emergency rescue and post-disaster reconstruction.
文摘South China has become the third largest region associated with acid deposition following Europe and North America, the area subject to damage by acid deposition increased from 1.75 million km 2 in 1985 to 2.8 million km 2 in 1993. Acid deposition has caused serious damage to ecosystem. Combined pollution of acid rain and SO 2 showed the obvious multiple effects on crops. Vegetable was more sensitive to acid deposition than foodstuff crops. Annual economic loss of crops due to acid deposition damage in eleven provinces of south China was 4.26 billion RMB Yuan. Acid deposition caused serious damage to forest. Annual economic loss of wood volume was about 1.8 billion RMB Yuan and forest ecological benefit loss 16.2 billion in eleven provinces of south China. Acid deposition in south China was typical “sulfuric acid type”. According to the thoughts of sustainable development, some strategies were brought forward as follows: (1) enhancing environmental management, specifying acid\|controlling region, controlling and abating the total emission amount of SO 2; (2) selecting practical energy technologies of clean coal, for example, cleansing and selecting coal, sulfur\|fixed\|type industrial briqutting, abating sulfur from waste gas and so on; (3) developing other energy sources to replace coal, including water electricity, atomic energy and the new energy such as solar energy, wind energy and so on; (4) in acid deposition region of south China, selecting acid\|resistant type of crop and tree to decrease agricultural losses, planting more green fertilizer crops, using organic fertilizers and liming, in order to improve buffer capacities of soil.
文摘Cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is a complex system involving numerous factors, moreover the re-search on evaluating cities ability reducing earthquake disasters relates to multi-subject, such as earthquake sci-ence, social science, economical science and so on. In this paper, firstly, the conception of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented, and the ability could be evaluated with three basic elements the possible seis-mic casualty and economic loss during the future earthquakes that are likely to occur in the city and its surround-ings and time required for recovery after earthquake; based upon these three basic elements, a framework, which consists of six main components, for evaluating citys ability reducing earthquake disasters is proposed; then the statistical relations between the index system and the ratio of seismic casualty, the ratio of economic loss and re-covery time are gained utilizing the cities prediction results of earthquake disasters which were made during the ninth five-year plan; at last, the method defining the comprehensive index of cities ability reducing earthquake disasters is presented. Thus the relatively comprehensive theory frame is set up. The frame can evaluate cities ability reducing earthquake disasters absolutely and quantitatively and consequently instruct the decision-making on reducing cities earthquake disasters loss.
基金This research was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42171074,41907395)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFC1502902)+2 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2021M690425)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.2021NTST28)the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(No.2019QZKK0906).
文摘Disaster clusters refer to major disasters that cluster in space and time without any linkage, resulting in large direct damage and economic ripple effects(EREs).However, the cumulative EREs caused by a disaster cluster may not be equal to the summation EREs of the individual disasters within a cluster. We constructed a global economic ripple input-output model suitable for the analysis of disaster clusters and demonstrated the extent of this difference with the example of two typical catastrophes that occurred in 2011(the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Great Thailand Flood), within an interval of only 136 days. The results indicate that:(1) The EREs suffered by 11 of the 35countries affected(30%) are “1 + 1 > 2”, and “1 + 1 < 2”for 24 of the 35 countries affected(70%). This indicates that there is a signifi cant difference between the cumulative and the summation losses. The difference is related to factors such as trade distance, economic influence of disasteraffected sectors, and trade ties;(2) The EREs are more than two times the direct loss and have an industrial dependence, mostly aggregated in key sectors with strong industrial influence and fast trade times in the industrial chain;and(3) Additional EREs due to the extension of the recovery period will be aggregated in countries with close trade ties to the disaster-affected country, further magnifying the difference.
基金Financial support is provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40901269 and 41101564), the National Science Foundation for Innovative Research Group (No. 51121003), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities. The authors would also thank the help of the editor and the comments of the reviewers, which significantly improved the quality of this paper.
文摘With the growth of energy consumption, energy-related environmental pollution has become increasingly serious, which in turn causes enormous economic loss because of public health damage, corrosion of materials, crop yield reduction, and other factors. Evaluating economic loss caused by energy-related environmental pollution can contribute to decision making in energy management. A framework for evaluating economic loss from environmental pollution produced during energy production, transportation, and consumption is proposed in this paper. Regarding SO2, PMlo, and solid waste as the main pollutants, economic losses from health damage, materials corrosion, crop yield reduction, and solid waste pollution are estimated based on multiple concentration-response relationships and dos^response functions. The proposed framework and evaluation methods are applied to Beijing, China. It is evident that total economic loss attributable to energy-related environ-mental pollution fluctuated during 2000-2011 but had a general growth trend, with the highest value reaching 2.3× 108 CNY (China Yuan) in 2006. Economic loss caused by health damage contributes most to the total loss among the four measured damage types. The total economic loss strongly correlates with the amount of energy consumption, especially for oil and electricity. Our evaluation framework and methods can be used widely to measure the potential impact of environmental pollution in the energy lifecycle.
文摘Super Typhoon Mangkhut hit Hong Kong on September 16,2018,necessitating the issuance of the highest tropical cyclone warning signal,No.10 Hurricane Signal.Packing ferocious winds and record-breaking storm surge,Mangkhut brought the most serious and widespread destruction to the territory in the recent three decades.A series of post event information search,field visits and damage surveys has been conducted by the Hong Kong Observatory(HKO)and the findings on the damages and impacts caused by Mangkhut in different parts of the territory are documented in this paper.Moreover,by analyzing the economic loss data reported by various government departments,public utilities and organizations in Hong Kong and the statistics on insurance claims from the Hong Kong Federation of Insurers(HKFI),the estimated direct economic loss due to Mangkhut in Hong Kong is about HK$4.60 billion,which is about 3.8 times to that of Super Typhoon Hato in 2017.On the contrary,in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the estimated direct economic loss due to Hato is significantly higher than that of Mangkhut.This could be attributed to the early and effective warnings for Mangkhut,increased public awareness and typhoon preparedness for Mangkhut in 2018 since the fierce attack of Hato in 2017,and infrastructure enhancement of the major impact areas.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant No.41671503)。
文摘Estimation of economic loss is essential for stakeholders to manage flood risk.Most flooding events are closely related to extreme precipitation,which is influenced by large-scale climate factors.Considering the lagged influence of climate factors,we developed a flood-risk assessment framework and used Hunan Province in China as an example to illustrate the risk assessment process.The main patterns of precipitation—as a connection between climate factors and flood economic losses—were extracted by the empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis.We identified the correlative climate factors through crosscorrelation analysis and established a multiple stepwise linear regression model to forecast future precipitation patterns.Risk assessment was done based on the main precipitation patterns.Because the economic dataset is limited,a Monte Carlo simulation was applied to simulate 1000-year flood loss events under each precipitation regime(rainy,dry,normal years)to obtain aggregate exceedance probability(AEP)and occurrence exceedance probability(OEP)curves.We found that precipitation has a strong influence on economic loss risk,with the highest risk in rainy years.Regional economic development imbalances are the potential reason for the varying economic loss risks in different regions of Hunan Province.As the climate indices with at least several months prediction lead time are strong indicators in predicting precipitation,the framework we developed can estimate economic loss risk several months in advance.
基金supported by the Overseas Talents Introduction Funded Project of Hebei Province(No.C20200308)the Science and Technology Project of Hebei Education Department(No.ZD2020135).
文摘Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and its surrounding areas(hereinafter referred to as“2+26”cities)are one of the most severe air pollution areas in China.The fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5))and surface ozone(O_(3))pollution have aroused a significant concern on the national scale.In this study,we analyzed the pollution characteristics of PM_(2.5) and O_(3) in“2+26”cities,and then estimated the health burden and economic loss before and after the implementation of the joint PM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy.During 2017–2019,PM_(2.5) concentration reduced by 19%while the maximum daily 8 hr average(MDA8)O_(3) stayed stable in“2+26”cities.Spatially,PM_(2.5) pollution in the south-central area and O_(3) pollution in the central region were more severe than anywhere else.With the reduction in PM_(2.5) concentration,premature deaths fromPM_(2.5) decreased by 18%from 2017 to 2019.In contrast,premature deaths from O_(3) increased by 5%.Noticeably,the huge potential health benefits can be gained after the implementation of a joint PM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy.The premature deaths attributed to PM_(2.5) and O_(3) would be reduced by 91.6%and 89.1%,and the avoidable economic loss would be 60.8 billion Chinese Yuan(CNY),and 68.4 billion CNY in 2035 compared with that in 2019,respectively.Therefore,it is of significance to implement the jointPM_(2.5)-O_(3) control policy for improving public health and economic development.