《Forest Policy and Economics》刊发中国林业经济论文追溯分析

以国际权威期刊《Forest Policy and Economics》为例,选取其2007—2017年刊发的与中国林业经济问题相关的文献,从国际视角对中国林业经济问题进行梳理与总结。基于统计分析,刊发的文献总体呈现数量波动增长、内容多样化、合作形式国际化,研究区域具体化,定量分析为主等特点。从林产品贸易、森林资源经营管理、森林转型等主题展开对中国林业经济研究的论述,以期为我国相关学者全面把握中国林业经济前沿研究进展和发展趋势提供参考与借鉴。

The economic impact of emission peaking control policies and China's sustainable development

To achieve the goals of national sustainable development, the peaking control of CO2 emissions is pivotal, as well as other pollutants. In this paper, we build a Chinese inter-regional CGE model and simulate 13 policies and their combinations. By analyzing the energy consumptions, coal consumptions, relating emissions and their impacts on GDP, we found that with the structure adjustment policy, the proportion of coal in primary fossil fuels in 2030 will decrease from 53% to 48% and CO2 emissions will decrease by 11.3%-22.8% compared to the baseline scenario. With the energy intensity reduction policy, CO2 emissions will decrease by 33.3% in 2030 and 47.8% in 2050 than baseline scenario. Other pollutants will also be controlled as synergetic effects. In this study we also find that although the earlier the peaking time the better for emission amounts control, the economic costs can not be ignored. The GDP will decrease by 2.96%-8.23% under different scenarios. Therefore, integrated policy solutions are needed for realizing the peaks package and more targeted measures are required to achieve the peaks of other pollutants earlier.

Dynamic response pattern of gold prices to economic policy uncertainty

Based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model,the time-varying effects and country differences of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on gold prices from August 2006 to December 2017 were examined.The results show that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty(GEPU)shock on gold prices change over time.The changes were positive during 2006-2008 and 2013-2017,while the impacts were negative during 2009-2012,implying that the efficiency of gold as a safe haven is not stable and depends on economic conditions.There are significant country differences regarding the impact of EPU on the price of gold,particularly during the international financial crisis,European debt crisis and Trump election.During the international financial crisis,EPU exerts a positive impact on gold prices in most countries.During the European debt crisis,the impact of EPU on gold prices is mainly negative in the examined countries.While during the Trump election,the impact displays positive and negative alternating in most countries.

Economic reform, open-door policy and changes in spatial development patterns in China

The study profiles and explains the significant changes that have taken place in China's spatial development patterns since the inception of its economic reform and opening two decades ago. Principal component analysis is used to delineate spatial patterns. The analyses show that prior to the reform China's spatial development pattern was characterized by the dominance of the three municipalities and the Northeast, as well as by both the coast-interior and the north-south disparities. Northern provinces were generally more industrialized and economically powerful than the southern ones. After two decades of reform, regional development has become multi-centered with South China, the Yangtze Delta and the Beijing-Tianjin area being the three most important regions of the country. The coastal provinces as a whole rose to prominence on China's economic map while the Northeast has diminished its clout. The coast-interior gap not only remains but may have widened. The north-south disparity also still exists but there has been a role reversal with the south now in the lead position. Virtually all inland provinces now find themselves at or near the low end of the development spectrum. We argue that the major reason for the recent shifts in Chinese space economy is the spatially differentiated economic growth resulted from the reform and open door policy and from the new, uneven development strategy adopted by the Chinese government. The paper discusses four specific factors that have reshaped China's spatial development patterns.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID‑19 pandemic:does economic policy uncertainty matter?

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.

Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH‑MIDAS model

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.

Preventing crash in stock market:The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID‑19

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.

The impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural non-point source pollution in China

Agricultural and rural economic policy system is one main driving force for the evolvement of agricultural Non-Point Source （NPS） pollution. In this paper, the main policies that influence agricultural NPS pollution are chosen, and a method to evaluate the impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural NPS pollution is brought forward. According to this, the questions about how and to what degree the policy system influence on agricultural NPS pollution are discussed.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

CHANGE OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT POLICY IN CHINA

After 40 years of painstaking work, much improvement has been made in regional difference. The road of that development, however, is by no means a smooth one, full of setbacks and failure. The past forty years may be roughly divided into four stages: 1.a stage of rehabilitation and large scale transition towards the interior( 1949-1959), 2. the dispersion stage with an emphasis on the construction of the interior (1960-1977), 3. a stage of moving back to the coastland and relative concentration of constructions of large scale industries (1978-1980), and 4. a stage of taking the coastland as the focal point for regional development (since 1981). Since the late 1970s, China began to carry out what is known as the Open-door policy. Great changes have taken place in regional development policy.

Medium-term and Long-term Environmental Economic Policies on Thermal Power Industry in China Seen from the New Environment Protection Law

In the newly revised Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China that has been implemented since January 1,2015,there is a lot of emphasis on environmental economic policies. In this paper,according to the current situation of environmental pollution and protection in thermal power industry,it is proposed that based on the new environmental protection law,it is needed to study various environmental economic policies on thermal power industry and analyze the effects on environmental cost of thermal power enterprises at the macro level. At the micro level,it is necessary to control environmental cost of thermal power enterprises effectively,and establish a suitable environmental management system for environmental economic policies including environmental cost accounting and trading of emission rights,thereby improving environmental management level of thermal power enterprises.

Economical Policy

China Import Duties of Alumina and Refined Copper to Be Cancelled in 2008;40 Thounsand Tons Molybdenum Smelting Project Commenced;China Began to Place Export Duties on Silicon;SiC Price Will Continue to Rise;Economic Running Conditions of China＇ s Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous, Building Material Industries During January - October.

Economic Analysis of Diesel Fuel Subsidy Policy in China's Fishery

In this paper,on the basis of an overview of the evolution of diesel fuel subsidy policy in China's fishery,we perform an economic analysis of the existing diesel fuel subsidy policy,and believe that it is fishing shareholders rather than fishermen who benefit most from the diesel fuel subsidy policy. The diesel fuel subsidy policy is not conducive to fishery resources protection,it will cause no fluctuation in the supply price of aquatic products,and it can not effectively increase the income of all fishermen. It is necessary to focus on subsidy method,subsidy links and subsidy level to improve diesel fuel subsidy efficiency,lower production costs,stabilize fishery production,and increase the income of fishermen.

Raising capital amid economic policy uncertainty:an empirical investigation

This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.

Adhering to Opening-up is the Key to Solve Sino-US Economic and Trade Problems

The new round of Sino-US high-level economic and trade consultations has been concluded.This is the 13th round of negotiations since the wide acceleration of economic and trade frictions between China and US.

Structural Deceleration,Financial Expansion and Policy Selection:China's Economic Prospects for 2014

China's economic performance in 2013 has verified that China's economic slowdown is structural rather than cyclical.Current economic growth has been driven primarily by investment in infrastructure and real estate sector.Consumption is sluggish and exports recovery is unsustainable.Financial expansion is a major instrument in offsetting the deceleration of China's economic growth in 2013.But structural root cause of slowdown remains.According to cash flow statement,balance sheet and cross-border capital flow,risks of China's financial system are accumulating under the backdrop of financial expansion.Financial system should play its role of resource allocation and refrain from stimulating demand.Future policy choice will shift from short-term macro policy to institutional reform,including political reform,reform of supply mechanism,balancing between macro-stability policy and structural transition,and reform of financial system.

Causes and Solutions of Administrative Departments＇ Economic Policy Ineffectiveness

Administrative department, as the focus of national political system reform, is associated with optimization and adjustment of state institutions and plays a macro-control role in socialist economic development. Administrative departments, just the ＂government＂, conduct economic control function to promote the sustainable development of social economic causes. The thesis firstly introduces administrative departments＇ era effect and causes of administrative departments＇ economic policy ineffectiveness. And on the basis of these, the thesis comes up with some solutions to solve economic ineffectiveness, hoping that it would be helpful to relevant researches.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.