Dynamic response pattern of gold prices to economic policy uncertainty

Based on a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility(TVP-SVAR-SV)model,the time-varying effects and country differences of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on gold prices from August 2006 to December 2017 were examined.The results show that the effects of global economic policy uncertainty(GEPU)shock on gold prices change over time.The changes were positive during 2006-2008 and 2013-2017,while the impacts were negative during 2009-2012,implying that the efficiency of gold as a safe haven is not stable and depends on economic conditions.There are significant country differences regarding the impact of EPU on the price of gold,particularly during the international financial crisis,European debt crisis and Trump election.During the international financial crisis,EPU exerts a positive impact on gold prices in most countries.During the European debt crisis,the impact of EPU on gold prices is mainly negative in the examined countries.While during the Trump election,the impact displays positive and negative alternating in most countries.

The role of R&D and economic policy uncertainty in Sri Lanka’s economic growth

In this paper,we assess the role of investment in research and development(R&D)and economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in Sri Lanka’s economic growth experience.We do this by first determining which endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of total factor productivity(TFP)in the country.Using historical time series data(1980–2018),we find that semi-endogenous growth theories best explain the evolution of TFP in Sri Lanka.This evidence suggests that R&D is critical to the country’s TFP expansion.We find that,through R&D,EPU has a crucial detrimental impact on TFP growth,although it is short-lived.Our findings are robust and have important implications for R&D investment and for moderating EPU.

Dynamic connectedness between stock markets in the presence of the COVID‑19 pandemic:does economic policy uncertainty matter?

This study investigates the dynamic connectedness between stock indices and the effect of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)in eight countries where COVID-19 was most widespread(China,Italy,France,Germany,Spain,Russia,the US,and the UK)by implementing the time-varying VAR(TVP-VAR)model for daily data over the period spanning from 01/01/2015 to 05/18/2020.Results showed that stock markets were highly connected during the entire period,but the dynamic spillovers reached unprecedented heights during the COVID-19 pandemic in the first quarter of 2020.Moreover,we found that the European stock markets(except Italy)transmitted more spillovers to all other stock markets than they received,primarily during the COVID-19 outbreak.Further analysis using a nonlinear framework showed that the dynamic connectedness was more pronounced for negative than for positive returns.Also,findings showed that the direction of the EPU effect on net connectedness changed during the pandemic onset,indicating that information spillovers from a given market may signal either good or bad news for other markets,depending on the prevailing economic situation.These results have important implications for individual investors,portfolio managers,policymakers,investment banks,and central banks.

Forecasting the volatility of EUA futures with economic policy uncertainty using the GARCH‑MIDAS model

This study investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the volatility of European Union(EU)carbon futures prices and whether it has predictive power for the volatility of carbon futures prices.The GARCH-MIDAS model is applied for evaluating the impact of different EPU indexes on the price volatility of European Union Allowance(EUA)futures.We then compare the predictive power for the volatility of the two GARCH-MIDAS models based on different EPU indexes and six GARCH-type models.Our empirical results show that the GARCH-MIDAS models,which exhibit superior out-of-sample predictive ability,outperform GARCH-type models.The results also indicate that EPU has noticeable effect on the volatility of EUA futures.Specifically,the forecast accuracy of the EU EPU index is significantly higher than that of the global EPU index.Robustness checks further confirm that the EPU index(especially the EPU index of the EU)has strong predictive power for EUA futures prices.Additionally,using the volatility forecasting methods that GARCH-MIDAS models combine with the EPU index,investors can construct their portfolios to realize economic returns.

Preventing crash in stock market:The role of economic policy uncertainty during COVID‑19

This paper investigates the impact of economic policy uncertainty(EPU)on the crash risk of US stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic.To this end,we use the GARCHS(GARCH with skewness)model to estimate daily skewness as a proxy for the stock market crash risk.The empirical results show the significantly negative correlation between EPU and stock market crash risk,indicating the aggravation of EPU increase the crash risk.Moreover,the negative correlation gets stronger after the global COVID-19 outbreak,which shows the crash risk of the US stock market will be more affected by EPU during the epidemic.

The impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural non-point source pollution in China

Agricultural and rural economic policy system is one main driving force for the evolvement of agricultural Non-Point Source （NPS） pollution. In this paper, the main policies that influence agricultural NPS pollution are chosen, and a method to evaluate the impacts of agricultural and rural economic policy system on agricultural NPS pollution is brought forward. According to this, the questions about how and to what degree the policy system influence on agricultural NPS pollution are discussed.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

Raising capital amid economic policy uncertainty:an empirical investigation

This paper investigates how economic policy uncertainty affects firms’frequency and their choice of financial instruments to raise capital.By applying a three-step sequential framework over a sample of 6834 publicly listed US non-financial firms,we find that during periods of high economic uncertainty,firms raise capital more frequently with a preference toward debt financing.The empirical findings suggest that firms prefer debt financing over equity financing to avoid ownership dilution and high equity premia.The rise in leverage during periods of high economic uncertainty highlights the importance of scrutinizing policy tools used to stabilize the economy during such times.

Economical Policy

China Import Duties of Alumina and Refined Copper to Be Cancelled in 2008;40 Thounsand Tons Molybdenum Smelting Project Commenced;China Began to Place Export Duties on Silicon;SiC Price Will Continue to Rise;Economic Running Conditions of China＇ s Iron and Steel, Non-ferrous, Building Material Industries During January - October.

Media Agenda and Citizen Perceptions About the Economic Crisis in Mexico： The Case of South-Center Area

This paper reports the role of national newspapers in the agenda setting process about the economical crisis in Mexico and its impact, as important mediators, in the public opinion, in a context of high social uncertainty. It has sought to know whether the responses of federal government economic policy have influenced the presidential level of acceptance and whether the adverse outcomes in federal elections intermediate reveal significant aspects in the electoral behavior of the population for presidential succession 2012. This involved measuring citizens perceptions and decisions before the reforms and their consequences, analyze government communication strategies to the crisis and assess the treatment and approaches news from three newspapers about the events concerning the public agenda. The analysis has focused on three states of the central-south of Mexico.

Global Risk Appetite,US Economic Policy Uncertainties and Cross-Border Capital Flow

Based on the global asset portfolio model,this paper created a panel threshold model using EPFR fund data to empirically test the non-linear spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainties on cross-border capital flow for emerging economies.Our study led to the following findings:(1)When the level of global investor risk tolerance is high,rising US EPU will induce a capital inflow into emerging economies,as manifested in the“portfolio rebalancing effect.”When the level of global investor risk tolerance is below a critical threshold,this gives rise to risk aversion and emerging economies will experience net capital outflow,i.e.the“flight to quality effect”.(2)Equity fund investors have a lower risk tolerance threshold than bond fund investors.(3)According to our heterogeneity analysis,more attention should be paid to monitoring capital flow through actively managed funds,ETF funds,and retail investor funds.The economy should increase financial efficiency and economic resiliency to mitigate capital outflow pressures from the external environment.

Causes and Solutions of Administrative Departments＇ Economic Policy Ineffectiveness

Administrative department, as the focus of national political system reform, is associated with optimization and adjustment of state institutions and plays a macro-control role in socialist economic development. Administrative departments, just the ＂government＂, conduct economic control function to promote the sustainable development of social economic causes. The thesis firstly introduces administrative departments＇ era effect and causes of administrative departments＇ economic policy ineffectiveness. And on the basis of these, the thesis comes up with some solutions to solve economic ineffectiveness, hoping that it would be helpful to relevant researches.

Analysis on the Development Trend of Contemporary Local Governance Mode from the perspective of Economic Policy and Environmental Capacity Optimization

As the basic level of national governance, local governance is deeply influenced by administrative tradition, political system and economic development level of a country. With more than thirty years of reform and opening up, the pattern of local governance has become diversified. The diversity of governance model cannot be managed in the same way, however, it cannot affect the government’s ability to play the initiative role of governance. We need to innovate and improve the existing local governance models.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions

In recent years,the frequent adjustment of the government’s economic policies and the uncertainty of foreign economic situations have made the degree of uncertainty of China’s economic policies rise continuously.The increasing degree of policy uncertainty will inevitably affect the investment and financing decisions of micro enterprises.Then,how does economic policy uncertainty(EPU)affect mergers and acquisitions(M&A)behavior?What’s the mechanism?Based on the above questions,this paper uses the data of non-financial listed companies in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2008 to 2018 as a sample to explore the relationship between EPU and M&A.The study shows that rising EPU will promote corporate M&A behavior,and this effect is more significant in slow-growth companies.The relationship between EPU and M&A is affected by corporate governance,stock price volatility and financing constraints.Specifically,the company’s M&A size is more sensitive to EPU with higher level of corporate governance,higher level of stock price volatility,and lesser financing constraints.Further research shows that the rise of EPU will significantly promote the improvement of M&A performance in the short-term,but this effect does not exist in the long-term.Various robustness checks do not change the empirical results of this paper.

The Influence of Uzbekistan's New Economic Policy on China-Uzbekistan Cooperation

In December 2016,with the change of President Uzbekistan,its policies and systems have undergone tremendous changes.This article will focus on the specific content of FDI system,tax policy and exchange rate policy in Uzbekistan's economic reform.Taking the“Ohangaron Green City”project and the trade volume between Xinjiang and Central Asia as an example,this paper analyzes its positive impact on China-Uzbekistan cooperation and China-Uzbekistan in terms of prospects.

The Influence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Habit Formation on Rural Residents’ Consumption

Based on the household survey data of rural residents in 30 provinces(cities,districts)of China from 1995 to 2019,this paper constructs an econometric model of farmers’consumption behavior with habit formation and economic policy uncertainty,and makes an empirical analysis of farmers’consumption behavior by using sys-gmm estimation method.The results show that:since the reform and opening up,the changes of Chinese farmers’consumption behavior not only show excessive sensitivity to income changes on the whole,but also show a significant habit forming effect,and the existence of habit effect will reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on consumption;there is a large gap between regions,and the consumption in the western region is affected by the uncertainty of economic policy,the impact is greater.Therefore,the government should pay attention to the impact of economic shock on consumption,maintain the systematicness and stability of the policy,enhance the stability,continuity and accuracy of the policy,drive the development of the western region,build a long-term policy mechanism to promote the sustained and rapid increase of farmers’income,and further change farmers’consumption concept.

Experiences and Prospects of China＇s Free Economic Zones after over 20 Years

Chinese FEZs are used as the tool for opening-up policy and the structural reform as well as the growth pole for the regional economic development. It is true that no Free Economic Zones （FEZs） in the world like in China have made so strong impact on national economic development and structural reform. Due to the change of their existing condition since the middle of 1990s, Chinese FEZs have to face the new challenges and problems. This study discusses and prospects the transformation and further development of Chinese FEZs in the 21^st century as well as their significance for the transformation of FEZs in other countries based on the analysis of the indicators such as the role, policy, industrial sectors, administration, development model, spatial structure and location.

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Heterogeneity of Executives and Enterprise Innovation

This study analyzes how economic policy uncertainty affects corporate innovation,and the moderating effects of executive heterogeneity.A threephase dynamic investment and financing model is first built to analyze the mechanism.Empirical analysis confirms that the increase in the degree of economic policy uncertainty promotes enterprise innovation.Further results show that this promotion effect is more significant in enterprises with male executives,low educational level,no financial experience and political background.Moreover,the positive impact is only found in enterprises with moderate executive ability,and the overconfidence of senior executives plays a positive regulating role in it.

How Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Impact a Country's Position in Global Value Chains?

Economic globalization in the 21st century has been characterized by the rise and spread of global value chains(GVCs).It faces significant challenges due to increasing domestic and international policy uncertainty in the context of emerging mega risks like geopolitical tensions and climate change.This paper begins by constructing a theoretical model for an open economy to study how risk-averse firms make decisions regarding the sourcing of intermediate inputs in an uncertain environment.Our model solution proposes that firms will source fewer intermediate inputs from countries with more economic uncertainty.An increase in domestic and foreign uncertainty will have opposite impacts on a country's position in GVCs.In this sense,we argue that a country tends to move downstream along GVCs if its own economic policies become more uncertain,and it tends to move upstream with an increase in the uncertainty of its trading partner countries.Our regression analyses,based on data including the World Input-Output Database,World Development Indicators,the UN Comtrade database,and the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index,provide empirical support for this model-based conclusion.Our findings highlight that a nation must consider foreign economic policy uncertainty and maintain domestic policy stability to participate in GVCs.