Optimal dispatching method for integrated energy system based on robust economic model predictive control considering source-load power interval prediction

Effective source-load prediction and reasonable dispatching are crucial to realize the economic and reliable operations of integrated energy systems(IESs).They can overcome the challenges introduced by the uncertainties of new energies and various types of loads in the IES.Accordingly,a robust optimal dispatching method for the IES based on a robust economic model predictive control(REMPC)strategy considering source-load power interval prediction is proposed.First,an operation model of the IES is established,and an interval prediction model based on the bidirectional long short-term memory network optimized by beetle antenna search and bootstrap is formulated and applied to predict the photovoltaic power and the cooling,heating,and electrical loads.Then,an optimal dispatching scheme based on REMPC is devised for the IES.The source-load interval prediction results are used to improve the robustness of the REPMC and reduce the influence of source-load uncertainties on dispatching.An actual IES case is selected to conduct simulations;the results show that compared with other prediction techniques,the proposed method has higher prediction interval coverage probability and prediction interval normalized averaged width.Moreover,the operational cost of the IES is decreased by the REMPC strategy.With the devised dispatching scheme,the ability of the IES to handle the dispatching risk caused by prediction errors is enhanced.Improved dispatching robustness and operational economy are also achieved.

Multiobjective economic model predictive control using utopia-tracking for the wet flue gas desulphurization system

Efficient control of the desulphurization system is challenging in maximizing the economic objective while reducing the SO_(2) emission concentration. The conventional optimization method is generally based on a hierarchical structure in which the upper optimization layer calculates the steady-state results and the lower control layer is responsible to drive the process to the target point. However, the conventional hierarchical structure does not take the economic performance of the dynamic tracking process into account. To this end, multi-objective economic model predictive control(MOEMPC) is introduced in this paper, which unifies the optimization and control layers in a single stage. The objective functions are formulated in terms of a dynamic horizon and to balance the stability and economic performance. In the MOEMPC scheme, economic performance and SO_(2) emission performance are guaranteed by tracking a set of utopia points during dynamic transitions. The terminal penalty function and stabilizing constraint conditions are designed to ensure the stability of the system. Finally, an optimized control method for the stable operation of the complex desulfurization system has been established. Simulation results demonstrate that MOEMPC is superior over another control strategy in terms of economic performance and emission reduction, especially when the desulphurization system suffers from frequent flue gas disturbances.

Finite-time economic model predictive control for optimal load dispatch and frequency regulation in interconnected power systems

This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power system to ensure frequency stability,real-time economic optimization,control of the system and optimal load dispatch from it.A generalized terminal penalty term was used,and the finite-time convergence of the system was guaranteed.The effectiveness of the proposed model predictive control algorithm was verified by simulating a power system,which had two areas connected by an AC tie line.The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm.

Investors’perspective on forecasting crude oil return volatility:Where do we stand today?

In this paper,we review studies of oil volatility prediction from a new perspective:that of investors who require economic evaluations of forecasting performance.Our results indicate that no single volatility model outperforms all of the competing models,of which GARCH and realized volatility models are the most popular.Most studies evaluate forecasting performance using two criteria:value at risk and hedging effectiveness.Parameter instability and model uncertainty are technical issues that affect out-of-sample performance.Most studies assess volatility forecasts from the perspectives of portfolio management and derivative pricing.Whether oil volatility can predict economic variables and the asset pricing implications of oil volatility for financial markets are important topics that require attention.

Energy Management System Design and Testing for Smart Buildings Under Uncertain Generation (Wind/Photovoltaic) and Demand

This study provides details of the energy management architecture used in the Goldwind microgrid test bed. A complete mathematical model, including all constraints and objectives, for microgrid operational management is first described using a modified prediction interval scheme. Forecasting results are then achieved every 10 min using the modified fuzzy prediction interval model, which is trained by particle swarm optimization.A scenario set is also generated using an unserved power profile and coverage grades of forecasting to compare the feasibility of the proposed method with that of the deterministic approach. The worst case operating points are achieved by the scenario with the maximum transaction cost. In summary, selection of the maximum transaction operating point from all the scenarios provides a cushion against uncertainties in renewable generation and load demand.