Analysis of Low Fertility Rates in Advanced Economies

In economics,opportunity cost means the maximum value of choosing one behavior over others in the situation where resources are limited(Parkin,2016).In the process of making reproductive decision,opportunity cost reveals the trade-off between time,resources,and economic benefits that individuals face when choosing to have children or not.During this process,the technological changes make the paths of career development diverse and rapidly changing,remarkably increasing the opportunity cost of childbirth and parenting.This leads to individuals more inclined to postpone or reduce childbirth when balancing their careers and families,thereby resulting in low fertility rates in developed economies.

Currencies of greater interest for central Asian economies:an analysis of exchange market pressure amid global and regional interdependence

Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.

Toward a sustainable growth path in Arab economies:an extension of classical growth model

Background/Objectives:Many economies are on the trajectory of alternative growth drivers other than conventional capital and labor.Access to credit facilities is a pertinent indicator of economic growth.In line with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals(UNSDGs-8)agenda,the national goal for sustainable development for most economies and Arab economies is no exception.Therefore,the current study adopts a traditional growth model by exploring the relationship between gross domestic product(GDP)per capita,credit for private sectors,ratio of exports,real GDP,and per labor force participants for selected Arab economies annually from 2001 to 2020.Research design:This study leverages the Fourier Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin(KPSS)unit root test and second-generation panel econometrics as estimation techniques,such as Westerlund and Edgerton panel cointegration test,and the use of two estimators,namely the augmented mean group(AMG)and common correlated error mean group(CCEMG),to obtain robust results.Findings:Empirical findings from Westerlund and Edgerton panel cointegration tests validate the long-run equilibrium relationship among the outlined variables.Further empirical results indicate that the share of exports is negatively significant with economic growth in countries such as Kuwait,Lebanon,Tunisia,and Jordan.Additionally,savings and labor force participation have a positive relationship with economic growth in individual countries such as Algeria and Bahrain.As per the panel,there is no significant relationship between labor force participation and economic growth.This indicates that the skilled labor force enhanced economic growth.Conclusions:These findings come with inherent far-reaching policy suggestions for economies and panels.Further details on country-specific policy actions are presented in the concluding section.

MEASUREMENT OF AGGLOMERATION ECONOMIES AT COUNTY LEVEL IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Agglomeration economies are the important factors for the regional development. However, the common indicators to measure them, such as Gini Coefficients neglect the spatial ingredient of data, leading to a-spatial estimates. In order to assess spatial neighbor effects of agglomeration economies, this study makes the new attempts by applying a series of techniques of spatial autocorrelation analysis, specifically, measuring the economies of urbanization and localization at the county level in the secondary and tertiary industries of Jiangsu Province in 1999 and 2002. The conclusions in this study reveal that on the whole, the localization effects on the economies of the secondary industry might be stronger than urbanization effects for that period, and highly agglomerative economies were limited within the southern Jiangsu and parts of middle along the Changjiang (Yangtze) River. Moreover, the tertiary industry has been strong urbanization rather than localization economies in the whole Jiangsu. Unlike the secondary industry, the tertiary industry held the high levels of agglomeration economies can be also found in the poor northern Jiangsu, and then the spatial clusters of trade and services might be basically seen in each of urban districts in 13 cities. All in all, spatial autocorrelation analysis is a better method to test agglomeration economies.

An Empirical Study on Agglomeration Economies and Optimal Agglomeration for China＇s Manufacturing Industries

Employing the statistics of 750, 000 firms obtained from China ＇s Third National Industrial Census, this paper estimates the production functions of 112 3-digit industries in four categories to examine the patterns of agglomeration economies, optimal scale of agglomeration, and the endogeneity of agglomeration level in manufacturing industries. Results indicate the existence of localization economies at city level and urbanization economies at province level, while the latter has very small economic significance. Decreasing returns to scale at firm level suggest that the source of agglomeration economies is technological externality emphasized by urban economic theory. With a rising scale, agglomeration economies exhibit an inverted U-shaped curve. Each industry has an optimal scale of agglomeration where the agglomeration economy is maximized. However, the actual scale of agglomeration is generally far lower than the optimal level. Corresponding to the optimal scale of agglomeration, the level of industrial agglomeration measured by the index is endogenous.

（Dis）Economies of Scale in Business Software Systems Development and Enhancement Projects

In the software engineering literature, it is commonly believed that economies of scale do not occur in case of software Development and Enhancement Projects （D＆EP）. Their per-unit cost does not decrease but increase with the growth of such projects product size. Thus this is diseconomies of scale that occur in them. The significance of this phenomenon results from the fact that it is commonly considered to be one of the fundamental objective causes of their low effectiveness. This is of particular significance with regard to Business Software Systems （BSS） D＆EP characterized by exceptionally low effectiveness comparing to other software D＆EP. Thus the paper aims at answering the following two questions： （1） Do economies of scale really not occur in BSS D＆EP？ （2） If economies of scale may occur in BSS D＆EP, what factors are then promoting them？ These issues classify into economics problems of software engineering research and practice.

Scale and scope economies in small household rice farming in Vietnam

The Vietnamese agricultural sector has experienced a dramatic structural change based on increased specialization in rice cultivation.However,small-scale rice-farmers have continued to grow multiple crops,especially in less developed provinces.While the literature advocates crop diversification for reasons of both economic and ecological sustainability,there lacks empirical evidence as to whether crop diversification brings efficiency and productivity gains to small farms.The present study is the first applications of the input-oriented stochastic distance function approach in estimating scale and scope economies using data of multi-crop farming households in Vietnam.We find strong evidence of product-specific economies of scale.Scope economies are also present for rice,vegetable,and other annual crop production.This suggests that crop diversification enhances efficiency and productivity.However,there still exists significant technical inefficiency in crop production,indicating opportunities to expand farm output at the existing level of inputs and technologies.More specifically,our empirical results indicate that it is desirable to expand vegetable and other annual crop production in mountainous areas while rice cultivation can be further expanded in delta and coastal regions.

The Thinking of Financing under Dual Economies Character In Medium & Small Enterprises

In China,the dual economies show prominence in financial field.It leads to the serious dual credit ration and becomes one of the main cause which makes financing in medium & small sized enterprises becomes harder and harder.On basis of this situation,we theoretically pose that we can alleviate the difficulty through the dual cooperation of financial control and the deepening of finance.

A Study on Trade Reliance of Creative Products： China as Compared With Developed and Developing Economies

The paper uses data from 2002 to 2011 to make an analysis on trade reliance of China, the top 10 developed countries and top 10 developing countries in products of creative industries. A cross country comparison is done from global, country groups, and individual country perspective respectively. The findings include that the global trade in creative industry is growing steadily in terms of both absolute value and relative value. The trade reliance of major countries in creative products is getting deeper. The trade pattern in creative industry is taking shape. China＇s future markets in creative products include developed countries and high income developing economies. In view of this development trend, China＇s producers should make necessary adjustment in their production and market strategy so that they will not miss the future opportunities.

A Note on an Economic Lot-sizing Problem with Perishable Inventory and Economies of Scale Costs:Approximation Solutions and Worst Case Analysis

This paper presents an economic lot-sizing problem with perishable inventory and general economies of scale cost functions. For the case with backlogging allowed, a mathematical model is formulated, and several properties of the optimal solutions are explored. With the help of these optimality properties, a polynomial time approximation algorithm is developed by a new method. The new method adopts a shift technique to obtain a feasible solution of subproblem and takes the optimal solution of the subproblem as an approximation solution of our problem. The worst case performance for the approximation algorithm is proven to be （4√2 ＋ 5）/7. Finally, an instance illustrates that the bound is tight.

Exchange Rate Risk, Political Environment and Chinese Outward FDI in Emerging Economies： A Panel Data Analysis

This study attempts to investigate the effect of financial and political risk on Chinese outward FDI activities in 56 emerging economies for a period from 2003 to 2013. Exchange rate is taken as a main indicator of financial risks and political risks are evaluated using ICRG （International Country Risk Guide） index. Generalized method of moments with panel data of Chinese outward FDI （foreign direct investment） in new emerging economies is used to find how Chinese finns intend to invest abroad with respect to exchange rate level, volatility, and expectation. The major findings show that RMB appreciation proved to have a positive effect on Chinese outward FDI in emerging economies. But Chinese OFDI （outward foreign direct investment） seems not to respond to exchange rate volatility. The expectation of RMB＇s appreciation has positive effect on Chinese OFDI in emerging economies. Results also show that more political risk leads to more Chinese OFDI in emerging economies.

Preventive Countermeasures for "Immiserizing Growth in Expanding Economies" in China's Rural Areas in the New Era

On the basis of defining the concept of "immiserizing growth in expanding economies",through analysing the status quo of economy in China's rural areas in the new era,this paper aims to find out the factors responsible for economic weakness of China's rural residents.It analyses the impact of market consuming economy on growth economy,and points out the phenomenon of "immiserizing growth in expanding economies" which may be triggered by China's rapid rural economic growth as follows:first,the income disparity between urban and rural residents increases ceaselessly,the commodity prices continuously soar,and the rural residents' market consuming capacity is short;second,the wealth concentrates highly and the majority of farmers' income is low.Thus we put forward the countermeasures and proposals for preventing "immiserizing growth in expanding economies" in rural areas as follows:we should reform household registration system so that the rural residents have the right to migrate freely,and farmers' status is promoted;we should coordinate urban-rural development,strengthen agriculture and rural infrastructure building and achieve impartial allocation of public resources;we should carry out redistribution on income scientifically and effectively,consolidate rural social security system,bridge urban-rural income gap,transform the comparative advantage into competitive advantage,so as to circumvent "immiserizing growth in expanding economies".

Can Emerging Economies Catch-up Sustainably？-An Analysis of BRICS＇ Economic Growth Pattern

The BRICS （Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa） and other emerging economies have become a driving global force for the past twenty years. However, their growth patterns are obsolete, impeding the quality and competitiveness of their economic growth, while simultaneously threatening the sustainability of their economic convergence with developed nations. Transforming the domestic growth pattern-the solution to the middle-income trap-has therefore become a key priority for each of these economies. This paper presents a comparative analysis of how to transform the pattern of economic growth in BRICS and achieve sustainable economic convergence with a comparative analysis of the pattern of economic growth and problems among BRICS countries.

Whether Can RCEP Cooperation in Digital Economy Raise New “Tiger Cub” Economies

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)is the world’s largest regional trade agreement,signed by ten ASEAN countries and five regional trade partners.In January 2022,the RCEP officially took effect,which not only marks the triumph of multilateral cooperation,but more importantly,will be significant contributor to global economy.At present,facing the wave of digital globalization,RCEP could put more emphasis on the international cooperation in technology innovation,digital infrastructure,and cross-border e-commerce,making digital economy boost RCEP’s goal to deeper economic integration.Member states can achieve long term success through jointly establishing cooperation mechanism on digital economy,and working to build community with digital sharing for RCEP parties,which also help revive economic strength in the big recession caused by COVID-19 pandemic.Furthermore,this study finds that the former“Tiger Cub”economies which are Indonesia,Thailand,Malaysia,and Philippines stand a credible chance of becoming the new“Tiger Cub”economies in Asia-Pacific,for their rapidly rising digital markets.

Determinants of foreign direct investment in fast-growing economies: evidence from the BRICS and MINT countries

The flow of foreign direct investment(FDI)into a country can benefit both the investing entity and host government.This study employed panel analysis to examine the factors that determine the direction of FDI to the fast-growing BRICS(Brazil,Russia,India,China,and South Africa)and MINT(Mexico,Indonesia,Nigeria,and Turkey)countries.First,we used a pooled time-series cross sectional analysis of data from 2001 to 2011 to estimate and model the determinants of FDI for three samples:BRICS only,MINT only,and BRICS and MINT combined.Then,a fixed effects approach was employed to provide the model for BRICS and MINT combined.The results demonstrate that market size,infrastructure availability,and trade openness play the most significant roles in attracting FDI to BRICS and MINT,while the roles of availability of natural resources and institutional quality are insignificant.To sustain and promote FDI inflow,the governments of BRICS and MINT must ensure that their countries remain attractive for investment by offering a level playing field for investors and political stability.BRICS and MINT governments also need to invest more in their human capital to ensure that their economies can absorb substantial skills and technology spillovers from FDI and promote sustainable long-term economic growth.This study is significant because it contributes to the literature on determinants of FDI by extending the scope of previous studies that often focused on BRICS only.

Prediction of Potential Carbon Dioxide Emissions of Selected Emerging Economies Using Artificial Neural Network

Tackling future global emissions of carbon dioxide is a daunting task. Different black box models have been used to determine the trajectories of CO2 emissions and other carbon stocks. Trajectories are important because climate modelers use them to project future climate under higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. In this paper, fully connected two-layer feed-forward neural network with tangent activation function that comes with hidden neurons as well as linear output neurons was used. The study applied classical nonlinear least squares algorithm such as LM (Levenberg-Marquardt), to predict potential emissions of selected emerging economies. Building the model on the basis of input variables such as crop production, livestock production, trade imports, trade exports, economic growth, renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption. These variables are considered to affect the ecosystems of high rising economic power states. The main idea is to ensure that emerging economies have a clear understanding of expected future emissions so that appropriate measures can be implemented to mitigate its impact. Data for the analysis were obtained from 1971 to 2013 from World Development Indicators and FAOSTAT database. Results indicate an achievement of training performance at epoch 11 when the value of the MSE (Mean Square Error) is 0.0003345 which indicates that the model errors are less than 0.05. Hence, the study concluded that the applied model is capable of predicting potential carbon dioxide emissions in emerging economies with the greatest precision.

Universal Health Coverage: Factoring Successful Economies

Countries are seeking to diversify sources of revenue for Universal Health Coverage (UHC), and strategies vary among countries at different stages on the road to UHC. The study tends to document these trade-offs by factoring successful economies across the globe. A review of peer-reviewed literature retrieved country-wise on the basis of successful UHC economies to establish the major factor associated with development of UHC. Political will has been recognized as one of the critical factors. Overcoming barriers associated with development of an adequate and sustainable financing mechanism and selecting the right package of services are other essential determinants. Reaching vulnerable groups and efficient use of resources were other factors that contributed to UHC development in Mexico and south-east Asian countries. UHC development is at threshold where nations should learn from one another, especially from those systems which appear to be doing better, and are more prepared to innovate, test and evaluate new approaches.

Entrepreneurship and Growth in Emerging Mini-dragon Economies： A South-East Asia Perspective

Entrepreneurship and growth are driving forces in the development of emerging economic systems. In this exploratory study we discuss emerging economies within a South-East Asia context. In particular, we expand on a previous study on the East Asian Tiger economies, and introduce the mini-dragon economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines. We explore the role of various economic indicators and indices entrepreneurship and SMEs as drivers of growth in these emerging economies. Growth factors unique to the region are also identified, and institutional and government interventions are recommended. Furthermore, we elaborate on the interdependence of the entire region on each of the mini-dragon economies. Since we have highlighted only a few of the emerging economies in the region, opportunities exist to expand the base for further study

Finance Sector in Eurasian Economies During and After the Global Crisis in 2008

As in the other countries around the world, banking systems in Eurasian economies, comprised of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, were adversely affected by the 2008 global crisis. A common challenge across most economies is to revive private-sector credit growth. Compared with the high increases of 80 percent in the period immediately prior to the crisis, credit growth has slowed sharply and even turned negative in real terms in a number of economies. Governments in many countries have taken measures to address banking sector stress. The measures for restoring credit growth and thus a high economic growth will be discussed in a part of our work. In the short run, such measures include aiding banks to repair balance sheets and also providing liquidity. In the medium term, measures should promote de-dollarization and the development of local debt markets.

Globalization and Industrial Relations in Transformation Economies： The Contextual Issues

Employee rights have and continue to be subject to significant analysis in developing economies from numerous perspectives： the economic dimension, the cultural and socio-political significance and the interconnectivity of these factors. Although this phenomenon is well established in pluralist democracies, it is an important factor in the process of democratization in some developing economies and a panacea for enduring Industrial Relations （IR） in many transformational economies. This paper contributes to this issue in Nigeria （as an example of a transformation economy） by focusing on the industrial relations characteristics that are being developed in the country. These characteristics are being highlighted by further investigating the emerging contextual issues which have significant contribution to the effectiveness of industrial relations and thus raising the floor for employee rights/voice/democracy in the work environment. Furthermore, the paper is based on the analysis from 12 companies with well-established IR practices and who are also key players in the Nigeria Employers＇ Consultative Association （NECA）. The evidence from the empirical findings suggests that despite globalization, employee rights have specific country orientation （acquiring new contours） and thus reflecting the socio-economic and cultural predisposition which is common with many transformation economies.