A coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model for 1-D and 3-D applications in the Bering and Chukchi Seas

Primary production in the Bering and Chukchi Seas is strongly influenced by the annual cycle of sea ice. Here pelagic and sea ice algal ecosystems coexist and interact with each other. Ecosystem modeling of sea ice associated phytoplankton blooms has been understudied compared to open water ecosystem model applications. This study introduces a general coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model with equations and parameters for 1-D and 3-D applications that is based on 1-D coupled ice-ocean ecosystem model development in the landfast ice in the Chukchi Sea and marginal ice zone of Bering Sea. The biological model includes both pelagic and sea ice algal habitats with 10 compartments： three phytoplankton （pelagic diatom, flagellates and ice algae： D, F, and Ai） , three zooplankton （copepods, large zooplankton, and microzooplankton ： ZS, ZL, ZP） , three nutrients （ nitrate ＋ nitrite, ammonium, silicon ： NO3 , NH4, Si） and detritus （Det）. The coupling of the biological models with physical ocean models is straightforward with just the addition of the advection and diffusion terms to the ecosystem model. The coupling with a multi-category sea ice model requires the same calculation of the sea ice ecosystem model in each ice thickness category and the redistribution between categories caused by both dynamic and thermodynamic forcing as in the physical model. Phytoplankton and ice algal self-shading effect is the sole feedback from the ecosystem model to the physical model.

Spatial diff erence in net growth rate of Yesso scallop Patinopecten yessoensis revealed by an aquaculture ecosystem model

Identifying the main factors on spatial diff erences in net growth rate of Yesso scallop(Patinopecten yessoensis)in culture system is the key to eff ective aquaculture management and development.Coupling a 3D ecosystem model(ROMS-CoSiNE)with a dynamic energy budget model for scallops,a Yesso scallop culture ecosystem(YeSCE)model was established with which scallop growth was simulated with real seeding density and juvenile size from local aquaculture experiments from December 1,2012 to November 30,2013.Results show that the YeSCE model has reasonably simulated the environmental variation and scallop net growth rate in the Changhai sea area.The growth of scallops was slow in winter and midsummer and was limited mainly by temperature.Food availability was a key factor that contributed to the fast growth of the scallops during spring to early summer and in autumn.Generally,the scallops cultured in the north part of the Changhai sea area grew faster than those in the south;and the net growth rate for scallops cultured near the island was signifi cantly higher compare to the others,which is probably correlated to the spatial distribution of food availability.Based on the correlation analysis,the spatial diff erences of the net growth rate were largely aff ected by the length of the match timing of temperatures and food availability.The results of this study provide a scientifi c support for optimizing bottom culture planning and adjusting bottom culture methods.

SIMPLE ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE EAST CHINA SEA IN SPRING

This paper’s simple ecological model to simulate the ecosystem variation and the vertical carbon flux in the central part of the East China Sea in spring, inter-reated the phytoplankton, zooplankton,autotrophic and heterotrophic bacterioplankton, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in a run lasting 90 days. Except for DOC, because of poor observation precision,the major seasonal features of the vertical distribution for these components can be simulated by this model. The results show that spring bloom is just a short period of 1-2 weeks and that deposit carbon flux at the bottom interface is about 200 mg /m2 ·d in the first 20 days and then reaches its maximum of 1500mg/m2·d about 2 months later after the spring bloom.

Vegetation NPP Distribution Based on MODIS Data and CASA Model——A Case Study of Northern Hebei Province

Net Primary Productivity （NPP） is one of the important biophysical variables of vegetation activity, and it plays an important role in studying global carbon cycle, carbon source and sink of ecosystem, and spatial and temporal distribution of CO2. Remote sensing can provide broad view quickly, timely and multi-temporally, which makes it an attractive and powerful tool for studying ecosystem primary productivity, at scales ranging from local to global. This paper aims to use Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data to estimate and analyze spatial and temporal distribution of NPP of the northern Hebei Province in 2001 based on Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach （CASA） model. The spatial distribution of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation （APAR） of vegetation and light use efficiency in three geographical subregions, that is, Bashang Plateau Region, Basin Region in the northwestern Hebei Province and Yanshan Mountainous Region in the Northern Hebei Province were analyzed, and total NPP spatial distribution of the study area in 2001 was discussed. Based on 16-day MODIS Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation （FPAR） product, 16-day composite NPP dynamics were calculated using CASA model; the seasonal dynamics of vegetation NPP in three subreglons were also analyzed. Result reveals that the total NPP of the study area in 2001 was 25.1877 × 10^6gC/（m^2.a）, and NPP in 2001 ranged from 2 to 608gC/（m^2-a）, with an average of 337.516gC/（m^2.a）. NPP of the study area in 2001 accumulated mainly from May to September （DOY 129-272）, high NIP values appeared from June to August （DOY 177-204）, and the maximum NPP appeared from late July to mid-August （DOY 209-224）.

A new methodology for estimating forest NPP based on forest in-ventory data——a case study of Chinese pine forest

Accurately estimating forest net primary productivity (NPP) plays an important role in study of global carbon budget. A NPP model reflecting the synthetic effects of both biotic (forest stand age, A and stem volume, V) and climatic factors (mean annual actual evapotranspiration, E) was developed for Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) forest by making full use of Forest Inventory Data (FID) and dynamically assessing forest productivity. The NPP of Chinese pine forest was estimated by using this model and the fourth FID (1989–1993), and the spatial pattern of NPP of Chinese pine forest was given by Geography Information System (GIS) software. The results indicated that mean NPP value, of Chinese pine forest was 7.82 t m?2·a?1 and varied at the range of 3.32–11.87 t hm?2·a?1. NPP distribution of Chinese pine forests was significantly different in different regions, higher in the south and lower in the north of China. In terms of the main distribution regions of Chinese pine, the NPPs of Chinese pine forest in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces were in middle level, with an average NPP of 7.4 t hm?2·a?1, that in the southern and the eastern parts (e.g. Shichuang Hunan, Henan, and Liaoning provinces) was higher (over 7.7 t hm?2·a?1), and that in the northern part and western part (e.g. Neimenggu and Ningxia provinces) was lower (below 5 t hm?2·a?1). This study provides an efficient way for using FID to understand the dynamics of foest NPP and evaluate its effects on global climate change. Keywords Forest NPP - Forest inventory data - Chinese pine forest - Climatic and biotic NPP model - Spatial distribution pattern CLC number S727.22 - S757.2 Document code A Foundation item: This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 30028001, 49905005), National Key Basic Research Specific Foundation (G1999043407); the Chinese Academy of Sciences (KSC2-1-07).Biography: ZHAO Min (1973-), female, Ph. D. in Laboratory of Quantitative Vegetation Ecology, Institute of Botany, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, P. R. China.Responsible editor: Zhu Hong

Adjoint Assimilation in Marine Ecosystem Models and an Example of Application

This paper aims at a review of the work carried out to date on the adjoint assimilation of data in marine ecosys-tem models since 1995. The structure and feature of the adjoint assimilation in marine ecosystem models are also introduced. To illustrate the application of the adjoint technique and its merits, a 4-variable ecosystem model coupled with a 3-D physical model is established for the Bohai Sea and the Yellow Sea. The chlorophyll concentration data derived from the SeaWiFS o-cean colour data are assimilated in the model with the technique. Some results are briefly presented.

Implication of community-level ecophysiological parameterization to modelling ecosystem productivity:a case study across nine contrasting forest sites in eastern China

Parameterization is a critical step in modelling ecosystem dynamics.However,assigning parameter values can be a technical challenge for structurally complex natural plant communities;uncertainties in model simulations often arise from inappropriate model parameterization.Here we compared five methods for defining community-level specific leaf area(SLA)and leaf C:N across nine contrasting forest sites along the North-South Transect of Eastern China,including biomass-weighted average for the entire plant community(AP_BW)and four simplified selective sampling(biomass-weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_BW],basal area weighted average over five dominant tree species[5DT_AW],biomass-weighted average over all tree species[AT_BW]and basal area weighted average over all tree species[AT_AW]).We found that the default values for SLA and leaf C:N embedded in the Biome-BGC v4.2 were higher than the five computational methods produced across the nine sites,with deviations ranging from 28.0 to 73.3%.In addition,there were only slight deviations(<10%)between the whole plant community sampling(AP_BW)predicted NPP and the four simplified selective sampling methods,and no significant difference between the predictions of AT_BW and AP_BW except the Shennongjia site.The findings in this study highlights the critical importance of computational strategies for community-level parameterization in ecosystem process modelling,and will support the choice of parameterization methods.

Role of cancer stem cell ecosystem on breast cancer metastasis and related mouse models

Breast cancer metastasis is responsible for most breast cancer-related deaths and is influenced by many factors within the tumor ecosystem,including tumor cells and microenvironment.Breast cancer stem cells(BCSCs)constitute a small population of cancer cells with unique characteristics,including their capacity for self-renewal and differentiation.Studies have shown that BCSCs not only drive tumorigenesis but also play a crucial role in promoting metastasis in breast cancer.The tumor microenvironment(TME),composed of stromal cells,immune cells,blood vessel cells,fibroblasts,and microbes in proximity to cancer cells,is increasingly recognized for its crosstalk with BCSCs and role in BCSC survival,growth,and dissemination,thereby influencing metastatic ability.Hence,a thorough understanding of BCSCs and the TME is critical for unraveling the mechanisms underlying breast cancer metastasis.In this review,we summarize current knowledge on the roles of BCSCs and the TME in breast cancer metastasis,as well as the underlying regulatory mechanisms.Furthermore,we provide an overview of relevant mouse models used to study breast cancer metastasis,as well as treatment strategies and clinical trials addressing BCSC-TME interactions during metastasis.Overall,this study provides valuable insights for the development of effective therapeutic strategies to reduce breast cancer metastasis.

Combined Implementation of Dependability Analysis Techniques for NPP I＆C Systems Assessment

Dependability analysis of nuclear power plants information and control systems is an important but challenging task. There are several techniques that can be applied for safety and dependability assessments. All of them have limitations and can＇t be easily applied in most cases. Sometimes combined usage of different methods is the most appropriate solution. In this paper we consider techniques of dependability assessment and achievement developed and used by research-and-production corporation ＂Radiy＂. The elements of the assessment methodology are briefly described.

京津风沙源区NPP时空变化及其对治理工程实施的响应

利用遥感大数据对生态治理工程区域的净初级生产力和固碳能力进行长期动态监测可以实现对治理工程的实施效果的评价,同时为区域“碳中和”目标的实现及可持续发展提供有力支撑。利用Google Earth Engine(GEE)云计算平台,基于改进的CASA模型对京津风沙源治理工程区域的NPP进行计算。运用Sen斜率分析和MK趋势分析方法对2001—2020年间的NPP进行时空变化分析,并分析NPP对京津风沙源治理工程实施的响应。结果表明:1)在京津风沙源工程治理期间,京津风沙源区NPP总体呈波动上升趋势,平均增速为2.21 gC m^(-2)a^(-1),其中极显著增加区域占38.03%,说明京津风沙源治理工程对我国“碳中和”任务起到了积极作用,增加了区域的固碳能力;2)空间尺度上,京津风沙源区NPP和固碳量空间异质性较大,空间分布上主要呈现东部高,西部低的特点,其中,暖温带落叶阔叶林区域最高,温带荒漠区域最低;3)治理工程的实施所带来的NPP增长的速度在不同的区域并不一致,2001—2020年的NPP增速京津冀地区(4.74 gC m^(-2)a^(-1))>山西地区(4.52 gC m^(-2)a^(-1))>陕西地区(3.53 gC m^(-2)a^(-1))>内蒙古地区(1.55 gC m^(-2)a^(-1));4)生态工程实施所带来的生态环境的改善总体呈现先慢后快的特点,绝大部分区域后十年间的变化速率都显著大于前十年,而在生态环境较为恶劣、荒漠区域广布的内蒙古地区,生态环境的改善则具有一定的滞后性,2001—2010年NPP增速仅为0.04 gC m^(-2)a^(-1),直到2011年,NPP才开始有较为明显的增长,2011—2020年NPP增速为1.67 gC m^(-2)a^(-1)。风沙源治理工程需要长期坚持,才能取得更明显的成效。

Considering time-lag effects can improve the accuracy of NPP simulation using a light use efficiency model

Most terrestrial models synchronously calculate net primary productivity(NPP)using the input climate variable,without the consideration of time-lag effects,which may increase the uncertainty of NPP simulation.Based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)and climate data,we used the time lag cross-correlation method to investigate the time-lag effects of temperature,precipitation,and solar radiation in different seasons on NDVI values.Then,we selected the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach(CASA)model to estimate the NPP of China from 2002 to 2017.The results showed that the response of vegetation growth to climate factors had an obvious lag effect,with the longest time lag in solar radiation and the shortest time lag in temperature.The time lag of vegetation to the climate variable showed great tempo-spatial heterogeneities among vegetation types,climate types,and vegetation growth periods.Based on the validation using eddy covariance data,the results showed that the simulation accuracy of the CASA model considering the time-lag effects was effectively improved.By considering the time-lag effects,the average total amount of NPP modeled by CASA during 2001-2017 in China was 3.977 PgC a^(−1),which is 11.37%higher than that of the original model.This study highlights the importance of considering the time lag for the simulation of vegetation growth,and provides a useful tool for the improvement of the vegetation productivity model.

基于高时空分辨率数据的上栗县植被NPP估算及分析

针对目前植被净初级生产力(NPP)像素级的研究成果缺乏对地理空间细节的描述这一问题,借助中高分遥感影像,利用深度学习模型获取精确地类图斑,将栅格化结果作为改进的CASA模型的输入参数,最终估算得到上栗县不同植被类型的地块级NPP值。结果表明,1)相比于传统的只利用影像光谱特征提取的方法,深度学习技术获取的地类图斑更为准确。同时,在林地图斑的基础上,结合中分影像对林地类型进行判别,林地分类精度为91.3134%。说明中高分遥感影像结合,能够较好地在区县尺度上开展植被的精细分类。2)以CASA模型理论为基础,对模型中的最大光年利用率的取值进行修正。同时以地类图斑的栅格化结果作为模型的输入参数,剔除了建筑区、道路、裸地等无植被覆盖区对模型计算的影响,并对估算结果与其他模型估算结果进行比较与验证,证明了试验结果的准确性。3)实现了上栗县NPP结果在空间上的精细化表达,研究结果具备良好的空间细节特征,不仅满足了面积统计、定性分析等简单需求,还可为后续碳循环、碳源/汇等研究提供客观、定量化的数据支撑。

松花江流域NPP时空演变及其对极端气候的响应机制

为探究全球气候变化条件下松花江流域陆地生态系统健康程度的变化特征,基于2000—2020年MODIS MOD17A3HGF数据集,采用趋势分析、相关性分析、M-K检验、地理探测器和相对重要性分析等方法,结合气象站点数据和土地利用数据,分析植被净初级生产力(net primary productivity,NPP)时空演变特征及其对极端气候事件的响应机制。结果表明:松花江流域年均NPP值为407.45 g/m^(2)(以C计,下同),以年均4.82 g/m的速率显著上升(p<0.01);极端降水事件对植被NPP空间分异性的影响强于极端气温事件,极端气候指数间交互作用的影响大于单一极端气候指数的影响,流域及农田和草地生态系统NPP主要受总降水量(PRCPTOT)与年平均最低气温(TMIN)交互作用的影响,森林、湿地和聚落生态系统NPP分别受中雨日数(R10 mm)与年平均最高气温(TMAX)交互作用、强降水量(R95P)与TMIN交互作用和R10 mm与暖夜日数(TN90P)交互作用的影响;时间尺度上PRCPTOT、TMAX和TMIN是植被NPP的主要影响因素,空间尺度上PRCPTOT和TMIN是多年平均NPP的主要影响因素。研究结果可为量化气候变化背景下区域生态系统健康程度和应对极端气候事件措施的制定提供科学依据。

基于PIE-Engine云计算平台和CASA模型的植被NPP时空动态遥感监测:以道孚县为例

【目的】为深入了解道孚县的植被固碳水平以及其长期变化趋势,【方法】以MODIS数据、站点气象和土地覆盖等资料为基础,通过PIE-Engine遥感云计算平台建立了CASA模型,估算了2001—2016年道孚县陆地植被净初级生产力(NPP)。同时,结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、稳定性分析、分区统计和冷热点分析等手段,探讨了其时空分布和演变特征。【结果】结果显示:(1)基于PIE-Engine云平台模型和CASA模型估算的道孚县2001—2016年的NPP,其精度较高并与MODIS NPP数据有良好的拟合效果。(2)道孚县NPP呈持续上升趋势,其中中部和东南部NPP较高,东北部和中南部NPP较低,同时NPP的低值区正在逐年减少,反映出该地区生态状况正在逐渐改善。(3)所有乡镇的NPP在2001—2016年间均有增长,NPP的空间变化整体稳定,大部分地区NPP波动较小。(4)道孚县的NPP在2001—2016年间总体显著增长,增长区域面积占全县的93%以上。(5)高NPP值区域在空间上形成聚类,“热点”现象明显,这为进一步研究和理解NPP的空间分布和变化规律提供了依据。【结论】研究成果为道孚县的生态环境改善和持续发展提供了科学依据,并提出了一种基于云平台的快速、高效的区域植被NPP评估方法,这对于全面评估可持续发展目标和推动生态文明建设具有积极意义。

甘南地区草地NPP空间分布的估算研究

通过使用地理信息系统和遥感技术的数据处理方法,对获取的MODIS多时相遥感数据、气象数据和与其密切的植被生态统计资料,对2020年—2022年5月—9月份的甘南草地使用CASA模型进行了估算,并且在估算验证的基础上,分析了甘南草地的NPP空间分布关系和随时间变化的特征,在建立NPP估算模型的研究基础上,重新建立了甘南草地2020年—2022年不同土地覆盖下NPP年内变化的时空序列及演变模式,分析了2020年—2022年甘南NPP时空变化情况及原因。结果表明:3年甘南草地5月—9月的平均NPP为679.675 gC/(m 2·a);甘南草地植被季节性变化比较明显,成长期主要聚集在第173天~第245天;甘南地区植被NPP呈现逐年增长趋向。

Spatiotemporal variations of ecosystem services and driving factors in the Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve of Xinjiang,China

Nature reserves play a significant role in providing ecosystem services and are key sites for biodiversity conservation.The Tianchi Bogda Peak Natural Reserve(TBPNR),located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China,is an important ecological barrier area in the temperate arid zone.The evaluation of its important ecosystem services is of great significance to improve the management level and ecological protection efficiency of the reserve.In the present study,we assessed the spatiotemporal variations of four ecosystem services(including net primary productivity(NPP),water yield,soil conservation,and habitat quality)in the TBPNR from 2000 to 2020 based on the environmental and social data using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.In addition,the coldspot and hotspot areas of ecosystem services were identified by hotspot analysis,and the trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services were analyzed using factor analysis in a geographic detector.During the study period,NPP and soil conservation values in the reserve increased by 48.20%and 25.56%,respectively;conversely,water yield decreased by 16.56%,and there was no significant change in habitat quality.Spatially,both NPP and habitat quality values were higher in the northern part and lower in the southern part,whereas water yield showed an opposite trend.Correlation analysis revealed that NPP showed a synergistic relationship with habitat quality and soil conservation,and exhibited a trade-off relationship with water yield.Water yield and habitat quality also had a trade-off relationship.NPP and habitat quality were affected by annual average temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI),respectively,while water yield and soil conservation were more affected by digital elevation model(DEM).Therefore,attention should be paid to the spatial distribution and dynamics of trade-off and synergistic relationships between ecosystem services in future ecological management.The findings of the present study provide a reference that could facilitate the sustainable utilization of ecosystem services in the typical fragile areas of Northwest China.

Spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their trade-offs and synergies against the background of the gully control and land consolidation project on the Loess Plateau,China

Studying the spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem services and their interrelationships on the Loess Plateau against the background of the gully control and land consolidation(GCLC)project has significant implications for ecological protection and quality development of the Yellow River Basin.Therefore,in this study,we took Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province of China,as the study area,selected four typical ecosystem services,including soil conservation service,water yield service,carbon storage service,and habitat quality service,and quantitatively evaluated the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services from 2010 to 2018 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs(InVEST)model.We also analysed the relationship between the GCLC project and regional ecosystem service changes in various regions(including 1 city,2 districts,and 10 counties)of Yan'an City and proposed a coordinated development strategy between the GCLC project and the ecological environment.The results showed that,from 2010 to 2018,soil conservation service decreased by 7.76%,while the other three ecosystem services changed relatively little,with water yield service increasing by 0.56% and carbon storage service and habitat quality service decreasing by 0.16% and 0.14%,respectively.The ecological environment of Yan'an City developed in a balanced way between 2010 and 2018,and the four ecosystem services showed synergistic relationships,among which the synergistic relationships between soil conservation service and water yield service and between carbon storage service and habitat quality service were significant.The GCLC project had a negative impact on the ecosystem services of Yan'an City,and the impact on carbon storage service was more significant.This study provides a theoretical basis for the scientific evaluation of the ecological benefits of the GCLC project and the realization of a win-win situation between food security and ecological security.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Changes and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Services of Zhejiang Coasts,China,Under Sustainable Development Goals

Ecosystem services(ESs)refer to the continuous provisioning of ecosystem goods and services that benefit human beings.Over recent decades,rapid urbanization has exerted significant pressure on coastal ecosystems,resulting in biodiversity and habitat loss,environmental pollution,and the depletion of natural resources.In response to these environmental challenges,the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs)were proposed.Given the pressing need to address these issues,understanding the changes in ESs under the SDGs is crucial for formulating specific ecological strategies.In this study,we first analyzed land use and cover change in the Zhejiang coasts of China during 2000–2020.Then,we investigated the spatiotemporal configuration of ESs by integrating carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR),habitat quality(HQ)and water yield(WY)using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model.The driving mechanisms of ESs,which varied by space and time,were also explored using the Geo-detector method.The results revealed that,over the past two decades:1)the Zhejiang coasts have experienced a significant increase of 2783.72 km^(2) in built-up land areas and a continuous decrease in farmland areas due to rapid urbanization;2)owing to higher precipitation,extensive vegetation cover,and reduced anthropogenic disturbances,forests emerge as a crucial land use type for maintaining ecosystem services such as HQ,CS,WY,and SR;3)ESs have generally declined across the entire Zhejiang coasts,with a significant decrease observed in the northern areas and an increase in the southern areas spatially;4)the expansion of built-up land areas emerged as the primary factor affecting ecosystem services,while the vegetation factor has been increasingly significant and is expected to become predominant in the near future.Our study provides insights of understanding of ecosystem service theory and emphasizing the importance of preserving biodiversity for long-term sustainable development,and valuable scientific references to support the ecological management decision-making for local governments.

Integrating GPT into the Journalism and Communication Industries:The Technological Logic,Ecosystem Reconstruction,and Ethical Chal enges

Generative AI,represented by GPT(Generative Pre-trained Transformer),is now leading the technological revolution and is reconstructing the journalism and communication industries'ecosystems because of its powerful generative capacity and diverse range of outputs.While GPT is busy revolutionizing and innovating the production of news content,working patterns,and operation modes,it has also given rise to ethical concerns in regard to news authenticity,data security,humanistic values,and other related aspects.Therefore,it is imperative to initiate strategies and approaches,such as establishing a mechanism for verifying information authenticity,enhancing data security and privacy regulations,and instituting an ethical supervision and governance framework for AI,in order to facilitate the systematic advancement of AI-based news production while reinstating public trust.

Response of ecosystem carbon storage to land use change from 1985 to 2050 in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China

Regional sustainable development necessitates a holistic understanding of spatiotemporal variations in ecosystem carbon storage(ECS),particularly in ecologically sensitive areas with arid and semi-arid climate.In this study,we calculated the ECS in the Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin,China from 1985 to 2020 using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs(InVEST)model based on land use data.We further predicted the spatial distribution of ECS in 2050 under four land use scenarios:natural development scenario(NDS),ecological protection scenario(EPS),cultivated land protection scenario(CPS),and urban development scenario(UDS)using the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model,and quantified the influences of natural and human factors on the spatial differentiation of ECS using the geographical detector(Geodetector).Results showed that the total ECS of the study area initially increased from 1985 until reaching a peak at 402.36×10^(6) t in 2010,followed by a decreasing trend to 2050.The spatial distribution of ECS was characterized by high values in the eastern and southern parts of the study area,and low values in the western and northern parts.Between 1985 and 2020,land use changes occurred mainly through the expansion of cultivated land,woodland,and construction land at the expense of unused land.The total ECS in 2050 under different land use scenarios(ranked as EPS>CPS>NDS>UDS)would be lower than that in 2020.Nighttime light was the largest contributor to the spatial differentiation of ECS,with soil type and annual mean temperature being the major natural driving factors.Findings of this study could provide guidance on the ecological construction and high-quality development in arid and semi-arid areas.