Dynamic GM（1,1） Model Based on Cubic Spline for Electricity Consumption Prediction in Smart Grid

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in smart grid expansion planning.In this paper,we present a dynamic GM(1,1) model based on grey system theory and cubic spline function interpolation principle.Using piecewise polynomial interpolation thought,this model can dynamically predict the general trend of time series data.Combined with low-order polynomial,the cubic spline interpolation has smaller error,avoids the Runge phenomenon of high-order polynomial,and has better approximation effect.Meanwhile,prediction is implemented with the newest information according to the rolling and feedback mechanism and fluctuating error is controlled well to improve prediction accuracy in time-varying environment.Case study using the living electricity consumption data of Jiangsu province in 2008 is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Analysis and Prediction of Regional Electricity Consumption Based on BP Neural Network

Electricity consumption forecasting is one of the most important tasks for power system workers,and plays an important role in regional power systems.Due to the difference in the trend of power load and the past in the new normal,the influencing factors are more diversified,which makes it more difficult to predict the current electricity consumption.In this paper,the grey system theory and BP neural network are combined to predict the annual electricity consumption in Jiangsu.According to the historical data of annual electricity consumption and the six factors affecting electricity consumption,the gray correlation analysis method is used to screen the important factors,and three factors with large correlation degree are selected as the input parameters of BP neural network.The power forecasting model uses nearly 18 years of data to train and validate the model.The results show that the gray correlation analysis and BP neural network method have higher accuracy in power consumption prediction,and the calculation is more convenient than traditional methods.

Machine Learning Empowered Electricity Consumption Prediction

Electricity,being the most efficient secondary energy,contributes for a larger proportion of overall energy usage.Due to a lack of storage for energy resources,over supply will result in energy dissipation and substantial investment waste.Accurate electricity consumption prediction is vital because it allows for the preparation of potential power generation systems to satisfy the growing demands for electrical energy as well as:smart distributed grids,assessing the degree of socioeconomic growth,distributed system design,tariff plans,demand-side management,power generation planning,and providing electricity supply stability by balancing the amount of electricity produced and consumed.This paper proposes amedium-termprediction model that can predict electricity consumption for a given location in Saudi Arabia.Hence,this study implemented a standalone ArtificialNeuralNetwork(ANN)model and bagging ensemble for predicting total monthly electricity consumption in 18 locations across Saudi Arabia.The dataset used in this research is gathered exclusively from the Saudi Electric Company.The pre-processing phase included normalizing the data using min-max method and mapping the cyclical attribute to its sine and cosine facets.The number of neurons and learning rate of the standalone model were optimized using hyperparameter tuning.Finally,the standalone model was tested against the bagging ensemble using the optimized ANN.The bagging ensemble with an optimized ANN as the chosen classifier outperformed the standalone ANN model.The results for the proposed model produced 0.9116 Correlation Coefficient(CC),0.2836 Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE),0.4578,Root Mean Squared Percentage Error(RMSPE),0.0298 MAE,and 0.069 Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE),respectively.

A self-adaptive grey forecasting model and its application

GM(1,1)models have been widely used in various fields due to their high performance in time series prediction.However,some hypotheses of the existing GM(1,1)model family may reduce their prediction performance in some cases.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a self-adaptive GM(1,1)model,termed as SAGM(1,1)model,which aims to solve the defects of the existing GM(1,1)model family by deleting their modeling hypothesis.Moreover,a novel multi-parameter simultaneous optimization scheme based on firefly algorithm is proposed,the proposed multi-parameter optimization scheme adopts machine learning ideas,takes all adjustable parameters of SAGM(1,1)model as input variables,and trains it with firefly algorithm.And Sobol’sensitivity indices are applied to study global sensitivity of SAGM(1,1)model parameters,which provides an important reference for model parameter calibration.Finally,forecasting capability of SAGM(1,1)model is illustrated by Anhui electricity consumption dataset.Results show that prediction accuracy of SAGM(1,1)model is significantly better than other models,and it is shown that the proposed approach enhances the prediction performance of GM(1,1)model significantly.