China's Rural Household Electrical Appliance Market──The Next Five Years

InFebruary1999,theStateCouncilDevelopmentResearchCenter,theMinistryoftheInformationIndustry(Mll),theStateInformationCenter(SIC),andtheChinaHouseholdElectricalApplianceAssociationsetupagrouptosurveythecountry'shouseholdelectricalappliancemarketinrural...

Analyzing the Wind-Dominant Electricity Market under Coexistence of Regulated and Deregulated Power Trading

Currently,both regulated and deregulated power trading exist in China’s power system,which has caused imbalanced funds in the electricity market.In this paper,a simulation analysis of the electricity market with wind energy resources is conducted,and the calculation methods of unbalanced funds are investigated systematically.In detail,the calculation formulas of unbalanced funds are illustrated based on their definition,and a two-track electricity market clearing model is established.Firstly,the concept of the dual-track system is explained,and the specific calculation formulas of various types of unbalanced funds are provided.Next,considering the renewable energy consumption,the market clearing model based on DC power flow is constructed and solved;by combining fitting methods of mid-and long-term curves,the unbalanced funds are calculated based on clearing results and formulas.

Energy Storage Operation Modes in Typical Electricity Market and Their Implications for China

As the Chinese government proposes ambitious plans to promote low-carbon transition,energy storage will play a pivotal role in China’s future power system.However,due to the lack of a mature electricity market environment and corresponding mechanisms,current energy storage in China faces problems such as unclear operational models,insufficient cost recovery mechanisms,and a single investment entity,making it difficult to support the rapid development of the energy storage industry.In contrast,European and American countries have already embarked on certain practices in energy storage operation models.Through exploration of key issues such as investment entities,market participation forms,and cost recovery channels in both front and back markets,a wealth of mature experiences has been accumulated.Therefore,this paper first summarizes the existing practices of energy storage operation models in North America,Europe,and Australia’s electricity markets separately from front and back markets,finding that perfect market mechanisms and reasonable subsidy policies are among the main drivers for promoting the rapid development of energy storage markets.Subsequently,combined with the actual development of China’s electricity market,it explores three key issues affecting the construction of costsharing mechanisms for energy storage under market conditions:Market participation forms,investment and operation modes,and cost recovery mechanisms.Finally,in line with the development expectations of China’s future electricitymarket,suggestions are proposed fromfour aspects:Market environment construction,electricity price formation mechanism,cost sharing path,and policy subsidy mechanism,to promote the healthy and rapid development of China’s energy storage industry.

Towards the Integrating Wind Power into Power Grid in China

With abundant wind resources and high pressure imposed on en-vironmental protection, wind power development has a promising future. Butdue to intermittent nature, wind power can bring into full play only if being con-nected into power grid to ensure its supply reliability and continuity, aswell as operational economy. However, technical and market barriers haveprevented wind power from integrating into power grid. To foster wind powerdevelopment, these barriers should be removed by both government incentivepolicies and sophisticated technologies.

State-of-the-Art Analysis and Perspectives for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trading

As a promising solution to address the“energy trilemma”confronting human society,peer-to-peer(P2P)energy trading has emerged and rapidly developed in recent years.When carrying out P2P energy trading,customers with distributed energy resources(DERs)are able to directly trade and share energy with each other.This paper summarizes and analyzes the global development of P2P energy trading based on a comprehensive review of related academic papers,research projects,and industrial practice.Key aspects in P2P energy trading are identified and discussed,including market design,trading platforms,physical infrastructure and information and communication technology(ICT)infrastructure,social science perspectives,and policy.For each key aspect,existing research and practice are critically reviewed and insights for future development are presented.Comprehensive concluding remarks are provided at the end,summarizing the major findings and perspectives of this paper.P2P energy trading is a growing field with great potential and opportunities for both academia and industry across the world.

Review on key technologies and typical applications of multi-station integrated energy systems

To realize the low-carbon development of power systems,digital transformation,and power marketization reform,the substation,data center,energy storage,photovoltaic,and charging stations are important components for the construction of new infrastructure.The integration infrastructure represented by multi-station integrated energy systems(MSIESs)represents the development trend,and its connotation and denotation are not immutable.This study firstly analyzed the components of MSIESs and their sub-stations and overall characteristics,and proposed an overall architecture for MSIESs.Thereafter,this system was characterized in detail from three aspects:planning and design,operation control,and market operation.The planning and construction of MSIESs was analyzed from the aspects of planning and design process,typical fusion subsystems,supply and demand prediction,and capacity determination;the operational control of MSIESs was analyzed from the aspects of model construction,coordination control,and safety assessment.Moreover,the market operation of MSIESs was examined from the aspects of the business model and spot market.Furthermore,the technical development trend of MSIESs has been explored in this study.

Costs and Benefits of Smart Grids on Liberalized Markets

The discussion about smart grid （SG） implementation is mostly focused on pilot projects. These projects are necessary for mapping of particular technical devices of advanced metering management （AMM） which is needed for successful SG and whole functional SG system operation. According to our opinion, for the next step of SG implementation, the participation of effective market design would be quite necessary. In other words, pilot project which is operated regardless to the market conditions and special SG tariff is incomplete and could be irrelevant for further evaluation of feasibility. With regard to above mentioned facts, the detailed cost-benefit-analysis （CBA） is needed to establish the correct methodology for evaluation of SG implementation effectiveness. Related aspects are mentioned and discussed in this paper, in which the particular cost and benefits as well as feedback that occurs as the reaction on implementation are summarized and quantified.

Economy supervision mode of electricity market and its incentive mechanism

The analysis of a supervision environment is the first step for a company to enter the new electricity market. Transmission and distribution assets are the main investment targets of a company. The overseas power market belongs to the regulated industry;whether it is a stock M&A project or a green land bidding project, the regulatory environment determines the assets. The level of return and investment risk that guides the operation strategy of existing overseas assets, has a significant impact on the investment and operations of international companies. A comprehensive and rapid assessment of the regulatory environment can help the project teams of international companies understand the macroenvironment of the target electricity market within a short period, quickly identify investment risks, qualitatively analyze the return level of the underlying assets, shorten the decision time, capture investment opportunities, and enhance the team. Efficiency and quality of work are factors of great importance.

Evolutionary game-based optimization of green certificate-carbon emission right-electricity joint market for thermal-wind-photovoltaic power system

With the increasing proportion of renewable energy in the power market,the demands on government financial subsidies are gradually increasing.Thus,a joint green certificate-carbon emission right-electricity multi-market trading process is proposed to study the market-based strategy for renewable energy.Considering the commodity characteristics of green certificates and carbon emission rights,the dynamic cost models of green certificates and carbon rights are constructed based on the Rubinstein game and ladder pricing models.Furthermore,considering the irrational bidding behavior of energy suppliers in the actual electricity market,an evolutionary game based multi-market bidding optimization model is presented.Subsequently,it is solved using a composite differential evolutionary algorithm.Finally,the case study results reveal that the proposed model can increase profits and the consumption rate of renewable energy and reduce carbon emission.

The role of capital deepening in China's energy transition

This paper provides a theoretical model to explain the causality between China's energy transition and capital deepening found by the empirical study.We prove that in the equilibrium,China's energy transition is endogenously determined by capital deepening due to the homogeneity of electricity and the monopolistic competition features of China's electricity market.Price effect,which is the effect of change in relative factor price,will affect energy transition only if the policy intervenes electricity price in terms of the primary sources from which it is generated.We propose that investment can promote energy transition by stimulating capital deepening which is biased to clean energy development.In this regard,our paper provides a new way of thinking for other developing countries to design an effective energy transition policy.

Joint electricity and carbon market for Northeast Asia energy interconnection

Decarbonization of the electricity sector is crucial to mitigate the impacts of climate change and global warming over the coming decades.The key challenges for achieving this goal are carbon emission trading and electricity sector regulation,which are also the major components of the carbon and electricity markets,respectively.In this paper,a joint electricity and carbon market model is proposed to investigate the relationships between electricity price,carbon price,and electricity generation capacity,thereby identifying pathways toward a renewable energy transition under the transactional energy interconnection framework.The proposed model is a dynamically iterative optimization model consisting of upper-level and lower-level models.The upper-level model optimizes power generation and obtains the electricity price,which drives the lower-level model to update the carbon price and electricity generation capacity.The proposed model is verified using the Northeast Asia power grid.The results show that increasing carbon price will result in increased electricity price,along with further increases in renewable energy generation capacity in the following period.This increase in renewable energy generation will reduce reliance on carbon-emitting energy sources,and hence the carbon price will decline.Moreover,the interconnection among zones in the Northeast Asia power grid will enable reasonable allocation of zonal power generation.Carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be an effective technology to reduce the carbon emissions and further realize the emission reduction targets in 2030-2050.It eases the stress of realizing the energy transition because of the less urgency to install additional renewable energy capacity.

Annual Report of SGCC on Transactions of Electric Power Market in 2009

Market construction Overview In 2009, the electric power market expanded continuously. New installed capacity put into production within the coverage of the State Grid Corporation

Investing and Pricing with Supply Uncertainty in Electricity Market:A General View Combining Wholesale and Retail Market

Renewable energy,such as wind and solar energy,may vary signifi cantly over time and locations depending on the weather and the climate conditions.This leads to the supply uncertainty in the electricity(power) market with renewable energy integrated to power grid.In this paper,electricity in the market is classified into two types:stablesupply electricity(SSE) and unstablesupply electricity(USE).We investigate the investment and pricing strategies under the electricity supply uncertainty in wholesale and retail electricity market.In particular,our model combines the wholesale and retail market and capture the dominant players,i.e.,consumers,power plant(power operator),and electricity supplier.To derive the market behaviors of these players,we formulate the market decision problems as a multistage Stackelberg game.By solving the game model,we obtain the optimal,with closedform,wholesale investment and retail pricing strategy for the operator.We also obtain the energy supplier's best price mechanism numerically under certain assumption.We fi nd the price of SSE being about 1.4 times higher than that of USE will benefi t energy supplieroptimally,under which power plant's optimal strategy of investing is to purchase USE about 4.5 times much more than SSE.

A Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Scheme for Power Market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important aspect of promoting competition and safeguarding the interests of participants in electricity market. As market participants, both producers and consumers intent to contribute more efforts on developing appropriate price forecasting scheme to maximize their profits. This paper introduces a time series method developed by Box-Jenkins that applies autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to address a best-fitted time-domain model based on a time series of historical price data. Using the model’s parameters determined from the stationarized time series of prices, the price forecasts in UK electricity market for 1 step ahead are estimated in the next day and the next week. The most suitable models are selected for them separately after comparing their prediction outcomes. The data of historical prices are obtained from UK three-month Reference Price Data from April 1st to July7th 2010.

Experiences of the Electricity System Operator Incentive Scheme in Great Britain

National Grid is the electricity system operator in Great Britain and has an unique feature in so far as it is one of the world’s few for-profit system operators. In addition, the commercially orientation of the British market rules means that nearly every action taken by National Grid to operate the system has a cost associated to it. Based on those factors and in order to encourage National Grid to seek continuous improvements and drive for efficient and economic system operation, the regulator (Ofgem) offers an incentive scheme, whereby a target is agreed annually and any savings in relation to this target are shared between consumers and National Grid in the form of a profit. It is in National Grid’s best interest to have mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of volatility in the costs it faces as system operator so that it can implement cost saving actions without the risk of windfall losses (or gains) arising from sudden changes in uncontrollable drivers. The purpose of this paper is to share the experiences of National Grid in the operation of Great Britain's electricity system, with a special interest on the mechanisms created to manage the associated costs in response to the incentive scheme. It does so by describing the market operation in Great Britain and the costs drivers impacting National Grid’s system operation and illustrating the steps recently taken by National Grid to propose volatility mitigation mechanisms. It concludes with the rationale and expected results from the latest proposals as consulted with the industry for introduction in the incentive scheme starting on 1st April 2011. It is worth noting that with this work, the authors wish to both share the experience with other system operators and regulators in the world, as well as give British market participants an insight on the inner workings of National Grid.

Comparison of Electric Load Forecasting between Using SOM and MLP Neural Network

Electric load forecasting has been a major area of research in the last decade since the production of accurate short-term forecasts for electricity loads has proven to be a key to success for many of the decision makers in the energy sector, from power generation to operation of the system. The objective of this research is to analyze the capacity of the MLP （multilayer perceptron neural network） versus SOM （self-organizing map neural network） for short-term load forecasting. The MLP is one of the most commonly used networks. It can be used for classification problems, model construction, series forecasting and discrete control. On the other hand, the SOM is a type of artificial neural network that is trained using unsupervised data to produce a low-dimensional, discretized representation of an input space of training samples in a cell map. Historical data of real global load demand were used for the research. Both neural models provide good prediction results, but the results obtained with the SOM maps are markedly better Also the main advantage of SOM maps is that they reach good results as a network unsupervised. It is much easier to train and interpret the results.

Analysis of Nash-Cournot equilibrium for electricity markets considering option contracts

Option contract is one of the most important instruments for power generators developing bidding strategies and hedging market risk. Based on the peculiarities of bid-based-pool （BBP） power markets, a joint two-stage Cournot equilibrium model for option and spot markets is developed, and analytical formulas for market equilibrium are derived using a backward induction method. The impacts of option contract on efficiency of electricity markets and the behaviors of strategic generators are analyzed. The results show that strategic generators will voluntarily participate in strategic option contracting, and the existence of option contract accelerates the degree of competitive intensity in electricity markets and mitigates the market power abuse of generators to a large extent. In order to retain high spot market price and stable revenues, generators are interested in holding extremely high volatility of spot market price.

A Generation Pricing Method with Capacity Bidding

Due to historic reasons China encounters some special difficulties in ESI (electricity system industry) restructuring. An easy and simple electricity value equivalent (es EVE) method for day ahead pool purchase pricing of China is therefore presented in this paper. The es EVE method is different from two part and one part tariffs. It is more like the UK's method in form, but revised for China with some new concepts and procedure. The main contributions of it include: (1) Find two kinds of eigenvalue, namely EVEs, in an optimization model, (2) Define new concepts of virtual units and feasible region, (3) Twice merit orderings are employed successively to find marginal price. They are simple maximum and minimum comparison procedures and so on. The special economic significance of the method for China is discussed, and some suggestion for ESI restructuring based on es EVE method are provided. A case study is offered at the end of the paper.

Multi scale risk measurement in electricity market:a wavelet based value at risk approach

Value at risk (VaR) is adopted to measure the risk level in the electricity market. To estimate VaR at higher accuracy and reliability, the wavelet variance decomposed approach for value at risk estimates (WVDVaR) is proposed. Empirical studies conduct in five Australian electricity markets, which evaluate the performances of both the proposed approach and the traditional ARMA-GARCH approach using the Kupiec backtesting procedure. Experimental results suggest that the proposed approach measures electricity market risks at higher accuracy and reliability than the bench mark ARMA-GARCH approach, as indicated by the higher p values during the Kupiec backtesting procedure. In addition, the new approach also provides more insight into the risk evolution process over time and helps in adjusting VaR estimates to the time horizons that best suit investor interests. The distribution of risk according to investor preferences is shown by decomposing VaR across different time horizons. This also provides important information for the appropriate aggregation of risk measures based on investor investment preferences.