A comparison of model choice strategies for logistic regression

Purpose:The purpose of this study is to develop and compare model choice strategies in context of logistic regression.Model choice means the choice of the covariates to be included in the model.Design/methodology/approach:The study is based on Monte Carlo simulations.The methods are compared in terms of three measures of accuracy:specificity and two kinds of sensitivity.A loss function combining sensitivity and specificity is introduced and used for a final comparison.Findings:The choice of method depends on how much the users emphasize sensitivity against specificity.It also depends on the sample size.For a typical logistic regression setting with a moderate sample size and a small to moderate effect size,either BIC,BICc or Lasso seems to be optimal.Research limitations:Numerical simulations cannot cover the whole range of data-generating processes occurring with real-world data.Thus,more simulations are needed.Practical implications:Researchers can refer to these results if they believe that their data-generating process is somewhat similar to some of the scenarios presented in this paper.Alternatively,they could run their own simulations and calculate the loss function.Originality/value:This is a systematic comparison of model choice algorithms and heuristics in context of logistic regression.The distinction between two types of sensitivity and a comparison based on a loss function are methodological novelties.

Discrete Choice Analysis of Temporal Factors on Social Network Growth

Social networks like Facebook, X (Twitter), and LinkedIn provide an interaction and communication environment for users to generate and share content, allowing for the observation of social behaviours in the digital world. These networks can be viewed as a collection of nodes and edges, where users and their interactions are represented as nodes and the connections between them as edges. Understanding the factors that contribute to the formation of these edges is important for studying network structure and processes. This knowledge can be applied to various areas such as identifying communities, recommending friends, and targeting online advertisements. Several factors, including node popularity and friends-of-friends relationships, influence edge formation and network growth. This research focuses on the temporal activity of nodes and its impact on edge formation. Specifically, the study examines how the minimum age of friends-of-friends edges and the average age of all edges connected to potential target nodes influence the formation of network edges. Discrete choice analysis is used to analyse the combined effect of these temporal factors and other well-known attributes like node degree (i.e., the number of connections a node has) and network distance between nodes. The findings reveal that temporal properties have a similar impact as network proximity in predicting the creation of links. By incorporating temporal features into the models, the accuracy of link prediction can be further improved.

Type 2 Diabetes—Hard to Select a Healthy Choice

Introduction: The use of foods containing high levels of sugar is increasing all the time. This is a risk factor for increased incidence of type 2 diabetes. There are few studies that have investigated the availability of low-sugar müsli products in grocery stores. Purpose: The study aims to identify which types of müsli contain high respectively low levels of sugar, and which brands are involved. Methods: The material consists of both qualitative interviews and observations from five grocery stores: City Gross, Hemköp, Ica Maxi, Stora Coop and Willy’s in Helsingborg, Sweden. The qualitative interviews had a semi-structured character and were recorded. The interviews took approx. 20 minutes and a textual analysis was conducted of the results. Data from observation was analyzed based on brand, nutritional composition and flavors, and also, where low sugar products were placed on store shelves. Results: The grocery stores provided together brands from AXA, Coop, Finax, Frebaco, Garant, ICA, Risenta, Saltå Kvarn och Urtekram, in total 24 müsli products. Of these products, 19 were high in sugar. The observation reveals that müsli products with high sugar content (17 - 29 g per 100 g müsli) are more prominently displayed than those with low sugar content. From the interviews with the store managers, it became clear that it would be valuable to highlight healthy müsli products on the shelves. However, central bureaucracy puts obstacles to such measures. Discussion: The study emphasizes the need for increased visibility of low-sugar products and proposes solutions such as negotiating with responsible person at the head office in Stockholm. Several reviews have shown that if the grocery store raises the prices of unhealthy food, the consumer is willing to purchase healthier müsli and other products. Conclusion: This study shows the need for grocery stores to upgrade healthy müsli products along with advertising to be able to influence customer’s shopping habits. Also, further research is needed how type 2 diabetes is affected by high intakes of food products with high sugar content.

Factors Influence Hanoians’ Choice of Non-Motorized Transport Mode to Access Bus Stations

Hanoi’s rapid urbanization has led to a surge in private vehicle ownership, particularly motorcycles, amidst inadequate public transportation infrastructure. Despite government efforts, many still prefer motorized transport, citing mobility and safety concerns, exacerbated by insufficient pedestrian infrastructure. This study examines the motivations behind this reliance on motorized vehicles, particularly motorcycles, in Hanoi. Findings reveal safety and convenience as primary factors driving motorized transport use, especially for accessing bus stations. Economic incentives could promote non-motorized travel and public transport adoption. Policy implications highlight the importance of addressing economic factors and improving access infrastructure to manage motorized vehicle reliance and foster sustainable urban mobility in Hanoi.

Editor-in-Chief articles of choice and comments at the year-end of 2023

As the Editor-in-Chief of World Journal of Gastroenterology,every week prior to a new issue’s online publication,I perform a careful review of all encompassed articles,including the title,clinical and/or research importance,originality,novelty,and ratings by the peer reviewers.Based on this review,I select the papers of choice and suggest pertinent changes(e.g.,in the title)to the Company Editors responsible for publication.This process,while time-consuming,is very important for assuring the quality of publications and highlighting important articles that Readers may revisit.

瑞波西利联合内分泌治疗用于绝经前侵袭性HR+/HER2-晚期乳腺癌患者:随机Ⅱ期RIGHT Choice试验

1文献来源Lu Y-S, Mahidin EIBM, Azim H, et al.Abstract GS1-10:Primary results from the randomized phaseⅡRIGHT Choice trial of premenopausal patients with aggressive HR+/HER2-advanced breast cancer treated with ribociclib+endocrine therapy vs physician’s choice combination chemotherapy[J].Cancer Res,2023,83(5S):GS1-10.

Consumers’experiences and preferences for plant-based meat food:Evidence from a choice experiment in four cities of China

This paper examined consumers’experiences in and preferences for plant-based meat(PBM)food and their respective correlates,based on data from an online survey of 579 consumers in four major cities in China in early 2021.We first described consumers’experiences in consuming and purchasing PBM food and their correlates,and then analyzed consumer preferences using hypothetical choice experiment.The experiment offered consumers various options to purchase burgers made from PBM or animal-based meat(ABM),combined with different countries of origin(COO),taste labels,and prices.Our data showed that respondents hold overall positive attitudes toward PBM food;85 and 82%of respondents reported experience in eating and purchasing PBM food,respectively.More than half of them ate PBM food because they wanted to try new food(58%),or were interested in healthy food(56%).Income,religion,and dietary restrictions were significantly correlated with consumers’experiences in PBM food consumption.Results from the Random Parameter Logit Model based on the hypothetical choice experiment data showed that 79%of respondents chose PBM burgers and were willing to pay an average of 88 CNY for a PBM burger.We also found that 99.8 and 83%of respondents are willing to buy burgers made in China and those with a taste label,with a willingness to pay(WTP)of 208 and 120 CNY,respectively.The heterogeneity test revealed that females and those with at least a bachelor’s degree,higher income,religious beliefs,and dietary restrictions are more likely to buy PBM burgers than their counterparts.

Dynamic portfolio choice with uncertain rare‑events risk in stock and cryptocurrency markets

In response to the unprecedented uncertain rare events of the last decade,we derive an optimal portfolio choice problem in a semi-closed form by integrating price diffusion ambiguity,volatility diffusion ambiguity,and jump ambiguity occurring in the traditional stock market and the cryptocurrency market into a single framework.We reach the following conclusions in both markets:first,price diffusion and jump ambiguity mainly determine detection-error probability;second,optimal choice is more significantly affected by price diffusion ambiguity than by jump ambiguity,and trivially affected by volatility diffusion ambiguity.In addition,investors tend to be more aggressive in a stable market than in a volatile one.Next,given a larger volatility jump size,investors tend to increase their portfolio during downward price jumps and decrease it during upward price jumps.Finally,the welfare loss caused by price diffusion ambiguity is more pronounced than that caused by jump ambiguity in an incomplete market.These findings enrich the extant literature on effects of ambiguity on the traditional stock market and the evolving cryptocurrency market.The results have implications for both investors and regulators.

Poke And Delayed Drink Intertemporal Choice Task(POKE-ADDICT):An open-source behavioral apparatus for intertemporal choice testing in rodents

Advancements in neuroscience research present opportunities and challenges,requiring substantial resources and funding.To address this,we describe here“Poke And Delayed Drink Intertemporal Choice Task(POKE-ADDICT)”,an open-source,versatile,and cost-effective apparatus for intertemporal choice testing in rodents.This allows quantification of delay discounting(DD),a cross-species phenomenon observed in decision making which provides valuable insights into higher-order cognitive functioning.In DD,the subjective value of a delayed reward is reduced as a function of the delay for its receipt.Using our apparatus,we implemented an effective intertemporal choice paradigm for the quantification of DD based on an adjusting delayed amount(ADA)algorithm using mango juice as a reward.Our paradigm requires limited training,a few 3D-printed parts and inexpensive electrical components,including a Raspberry Pi control unit.Furthermore,it is compatible with several in vivo procedures and the use of nose pokes instead of levers allows for faster task learning.Besides the main application described here,the apparatus can be further extended to implement other behavioral tests and protocols,including standard operant conditioning.In conclusion,we describe a versatile and cost-effective design based on Raspberry Pi that can support research in animal behavior,decision making and,more specifically,delay discounting.

Accessibility Measures in Modal Choice Models: A Proof of Concept Applied to Freight Transport

Modal choice models applied to interregional or international freight transportation network models are often based on rather coarse origin-destination matrices, containing annual transported tonnages between (sub)regions, for instance. Generally, only basic (sometimes constructed) independent variables (transportation costs or transit times) are used because other variables such as shipment sizes, service frequencies, etc. are not available. Using origin-destination matrices and an assignment model, it is also possible to compute spatial accessibility measures that can further be used as additional explanatory variables. Indeed, several published studies have identified network accessibility as an important element in the mode-choice decision. This paper also shows that the inclusion of an accessibility measure in the utility functions of a logit model substantially improves the performance of a transportation network model, both in the modal choice and the assignment levels of the classical four-step model. Consequently, the assignment of the estimated modal demands results in more accurate estimated traffic on the networks. The model presented in this paper is to be considered as a proof of concept because its workflow should further be streamlined to make it easily useable by modelers.

How Users Perceive Infrastructure Development Affects Their Transport Mode Choice

Transport infrastructure development and perception vary across and within countries, influencing mode choice among road users. This study explores how road users perceive the development of infrastructure modes, service attributes, embedded safety levels, and commuting modes. Additionally, the research examines whether participants’ environmental backgrounds impact their mode choice patterns. The study gathered responses from 1169 participants residing in two regions of Amman, Jordan, each with distinct infrastructure development and population densities. Participants completed a standardized questionnaire, and several statistical techniques were employed for analysis. The findings revealed that facilities’ infrastructure attributes, development, and safety were assessed using three indices. Both participant groups perceived these indices differently on average. Residents of low population density areas with relatively developed infrastructure showed more consistent assessments, irrespective of their most frequently used mode of transportation, tending towards lower scores. Interestingly, subjective ratings of infrastructure development were higher (4.96) than attribute-based ratings (4.32). Despite their generally low-quality perception, public transportation services received the highest appraisal (4.9). Conversely, pedestrian infrastructure complementing public transport received the lowest assessment (4.57), only slightly higher than street environments (4.59). The study found weak associations between subjective service characteristics ratings. Traveler and trip characteristics influenced mode choice and trips more than infrastructure perception. In conclusion, the study suggests that policies should be developed to encourage green transportation, ensure social equality and safety. In addition, the study contributes to understanding perceptions about transport infrastructure, modes of transportation, and the factors that influence sustainable and equitable transportation systems.

A Study of the Self-efficacy of Viola Majors in Chinese Universities Regarding Career Choice

This study examined and analysed the impact of self-efficacy on the career decisions of 52 viola students enrolled in Chinese universities.According to the findings,the level of self-efficacy influences the learning and career decisions of students directly.Higher self-efficacy can positively affect how individuals perceive their past experiences and those of others.Therefore,a high degree of self-efficacy can be advantageous.Self-efficacy is primarily influenced by a person’s prior experiences,alternative experiences,verbal persuasion,and physical and emotional state during work-based learning.Schools may offer courses that foster and improve the development of self-efficacy in order to help viola majors in improving their self-efficacy effectively.

Traffic Speed Interface Development in Route Choice Decision

In this paper,a method has been developed based on historic traffic data(speed),which helps the commuters to choose routes by their intelligence knowing the traffic conditions in Google maps.Data has been collected on basis of video analysis from several segments between Tuker Bazar and Bandar Bazar route.For each of the video footage,a reference length has been recorded with measurement tape for use in video analysis.A software has been also developed based on Java language to get the traffic information from historic data,which shows the output as images consisting of traffic speed details on the available routes by giving day and time limit as inputs.The developed models provide useful insights and helpful for the policy makers that can lead to the reduction of traffic congestion and increase the scope of intelligence of the road users,at least for the underdeveloped or developing country where navigation is still unavailable.

Education Voucher Scheme in India: Would Lead to School Choice and Universal Education?

To remove obstacles in the path of‘Education for All’,the government of India launched several programs,Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan(SSA)being one of them.Despite several attempts,the government has failed to be successful in providing education to all students and the impact of such schemes has not been very good at the ground level.In India,children are not absent from school owing to a lack of demand;rather,low quality of government education delivery is a major cause for their absence.There is a need to redefine the Indian education system or policy to a new level as government schools are unable to fulfil the growing demand for high-quality education.Direct government funding to children or parents rather than schools can provide parents or children with the ability to select the school of their choice,whether it is a government or private school.This may be accomplished through the education voucher scheme.Governments do not need to spend any additional public funds on vouchers to implement this approach.The education voucher scheme deserves an effort among the several approaches that are being pursued to improve school education.

深化研究人文经济学:方向抉择、当代使命与未来前景

理论创新无止境,深化研究谋新篇。一年来,在全国上下理解和把握习近平总书记关于“人文经济学”的新思想新观点新论断的丰富内涵和重大要求取得初步进展之后,深化研究需要做出新的方向抉择,凝练当代议程,肩负当代使命。一是要立足更高站位进一步深刻理解和把握人文经济学命题出场语境与重大意义;二是要深耕样本解读,从实际出发追寻人文经济学出场的历史逻辑,从习近平总书记多次赞赏的苏州、杭州等地区的历史基础和实践经验中科学提炼“人文密码”,精准理解“人文经济学”的真正内涵;三是要植根实践逻辑,精准把握人文经济学推动高质量发展的着力点和战略全局;四是要回溯人文经济学的理论魂脉,看人文经济学在解决西方经济学带来的一系列弊病的过程中,如何守正创新了马克思对资本拜物教所作的深刻的政治经济学批判的思想,同时重新系统梳理习近平总书记关于“人文经济学”系列重要论断的思想逻辑;五是要整体有机贯通、历史性梳理人文经济学的文化根脉,揭示和把握从传统到现代经济发展中一脉相承、成为灵魂的“文化基因”图谱;六是要以强大的文化自信和理论自信加快构建新时代中国特色人文经济学自主知识体系,开辟马克思主义中国化时代化新境界,谱写中国式现代化理论创造的新篇章。深化研究必将呈现方向和领域的分工甚至分化,需要加强协同创新机制建设。

新疆棉花和纺织服装产业集群高质量发展战略选择

新发展格局下,为了更好推动新疆棉花和纺织服装产业集群化发展,提升其在全球产业分工中的地位以及核心竞争力,基于SWOT分析的视角,分析了新疆棉花和纺织服装产业集群在优势、劣势、机会、挑战4个方面的发展态势,针对集群的劣势和集群面临的挑战,以“抓两端、促中间、搭平台、创生态”为主线,从6个方面提出加快构建新疆棉花和纺织服装产业集群高质量发展的对策建议。

偏好异质性、农户参与式方案创设与养殖废弃物资源化利用——来自养殖户种养结合的选择实验

生态补偿政策构成的农业环境方案对于废弃物资源化利用具有激励作用,但现行补偿政策方案可能存在推广瓶颈,突破瓶颈的关键在于了解农户的政策选择偏好。以养殖废弃物肥料化还田为例,通过选择实验法构建了由4个政策属性组合而成的备选政策情境,结合江苏省346户生猪养殖户实验数据,运用Mixed Logit模型检验了补偿政策的选择偏好及协同互补效应。结果表明:(1)养殖户对选择实验方案中的服务类、收入类和价格类补偿政策的偏好程度更高,而对于技术支持类补偿政策不具备明显偏好;(2)养殖户环保认知与风险特征是上述政策偏好异质性的重要来源,风险偏好型和环保认知水平高的养殖户对各类补偿政策方案的接受意愿更高;(3)技术支持、外包服务同收入类、价格类补偿政策之间呈现显著的互补性。根据“重视多元化补偿,强化正协同效应”原则,本文创设了针对养殖废弃物还田利用的推广方案,旨在优化和完善现行的生态补偿政策体系,打好相关政策措施的“组合拳”。

基于元分析的患者在线择医行为影响因素研究

目的:对患者在线择医影响因素认定进行系统性和全面性探索,助力互联网医疗服务优化和卫生政策完善。方法:对纳入的18篇文献进行分析,筛选8个影响因素,采用相关系数作为效用值,通过CMA3.0元分析软件进行分析。结果:虚拟礼物数量与患者在线择医行为具有强相关关系;服务价格、个人信息披露、评价数量、医生发表文章数与患者在线择医行为中度相关;医院等级和医学职称与患者在线择医行为弱相关。结论:患者应多角度评估信息,进行科学择医决策;提升医生品牌管理,提供优质服务;优化在线医疗社区服务,提升患者使用体验感。

数字经济全球化:历史必然性、显著特征及战略选择

经济全球化仍然是当今世界经济发展的客观趋势。如何正确认识经济全球化的客观规律?如何把握当今世界经济全球化的历史必然性?如何概括当今世界经济全球化的显著特征?如何依据当今世界经济全球化历史必然性和显著特征进行国家战略的正确选择?所有这些都需要在学理上进行全面系统完整地探究。既有研究成果基础上,在人类文明演进中把经济全球化细分为农业经济全球化、工业经济全球化和数字经济全球化,依次阐述它们的区别联系、相互依赖和依次递进,进而论证经济全球化的客观演进规律;在经济全球化客观规律基础上,论证数字经济全球化是经济全球化演进自然历史过程的结晶,阐述数字经济全球化的历史必然性;在数字技术和数字经济显著特征基础上,结合经济全球化客观演进规律,阐述了数字经济全球化的显著特征;最后,基于数字经济全球化历史必然性及其显著特征,提出了新时代我国参与、引领和主导数字经济全球化的国家战略选择方略。

新质生产力促进体育产业高质量发展的动力机制与路径选择

新质生产力作为推动体育产业转型升级和实现高质量发展的关键动力,其内涵和特征需要进一步深化和理解。通过对新质生产力与体育产业高质量发展概念内涵的解析,探讨新质生产力促进体育产业高质量发展的动力机制,包括科技创新、产业融合、需求驱动、政策制度和绿色持续等五个方面,展现新质生产力在提升体育竞技性能、丰富体育消费体验、促进产业结构优化等方面的关键作用。进一步分析影响新质生产力形成和体育产业高质量发展的关键问题,包括科研创新不足、产业融合不畅、需求供给不足、制度环境不健全和绿色理念缺乏等,针对问题提出有效的路径选择,如加强科研创新、促进产业融合、明确需求定位、完善制度环境、倡导绿色发展等策略,旨在为体育产业创新发展提供理论支撑和实践指导,助力实现体育强国梦想和推动社会全面进步。