Emergency Decision-Making Based on q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Rough Aggregation Information

With the frequent occurrences of emergency events,emergency decision making(EDM)plays an increasingly significant role in coping with such situations and has become an important and challenging research area in recent times.It is essential for decision makers to make reliable and reasonable emergency decisions within a short span of time,since inappropriate decisions may result in enormous economic losses and social disorder.To handle emergency effectively and quickly,this paper proposes a new EDM method based on the novel concept of q-rung orthopair fuzzy rough(q-ROPR)set.A novel list of q-ROFR aggregation information,detailed description of the fundamental characteristics of the developed aggregation operators and the q-ROFR entropy measure that determine the unknown weight information of decision makers as well as the criteria weights are specified.Further an algorithm is given to tackle the uncertain scenario in emergency to give reliable and reasonable emergency decisions.By using proposed list of q-ROFR aggregation information all emergency alternatives are ranked to get the optimal one.Besides this,the q-ROFR entropy measure method is used to determine criteria and experts’weights objectively in the EDM process.Finally,through an illustrative example of COVID-19 analysis is compared with existing EDM methods.The results verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed methodology.

Non-Cooperative Behavior Management in Large-Scale Group Decision-Making Considering the Altruistic Behaviors of Experts and Its Application in Emergency Alternative Selection

Emergency decision-making problems usually involve many experts with different professional backgrounds and concerns,leading to non-cooperative behaviors during the consensus-reaching process.Many studies on noncooperative behavior management assumed that the maximumdegree of cooperation of experts is to totally accept the revisions suggested by the moderator,which restricted individuals with altruistic behaviors to make more contributions in the agreement-reaching process.In addition,when grouping a large group into subgroups by clustering methods,existing studies were based on the similarity of evaluation values or trust relationships among experts separately but did not consider them simultaneously.In this study,we introduce a clustering method considering the similarity of evaluation values and the trust relations of experts and then develop a consensusmodel taking into account the altruistic behaviors of experts.First,we cluster experts into subgroups by a constrained Kmeans clustering algorithm according to the opinion similarity and trust relationship of experts.Then,we calculate the weights of experts and clusters based on the centrality degrees of experts.Next,to enhance the quality of consensus reaching,we identify three kinds of non-cooperative behaviors and propose corresponding feedback mechanisms relying on the altruistic behaviors of experts.A numerical example is given to show the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method in emergency decision-making.The study finds that integrating altruistic behavior analysis in group decision-making can safeguard the interests of experts and ensure the integrity of decision-making information.

A Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Method Using Belief-Based Probabilistic Linguistic Term Sets and Its Application in Emergency Decision-Making

Probabilistic linguistic term sets(PLTSs)are an effective tool for expressing subjective human cognition that offer advantages in the field ofmulti-attribute decision-making(MADM).However,studies have found that PLTSs have lost their ability to accurately capture the views of decision-makers(DMs)in certain circumstances,such as when the DM hesitates between multiple linguistic terms or the decision information is incomplete,thus affecting their role in the decision-making process.Belief function theory is a leading streamof thought in uncertainty processing that is suitable for dealing with the limitations of PLTS.Therefore,the purpose of this study is to extend PLTS to incorporate belief function theory.First,we provide the basic concepts of the extended PLTS(i.e.,belief-based PLTS)through case analyses.Second,the aggregation operator of belief-based PLTS is defined with the ordered weighted average(OWA)-based soft likelihood function,which is improved by considering the reliability of the information source.Third,to measure the magnitude of different belief-based PLTSs,the belief interval of singleton is calculated,and the comparison method of belief-based PLTS is constructed based on probabilities.On the basis of the preceding discussion,we further develop an emergency decision framework that includes several novel techniques,such as attribute weight determination and decision information aggregation.Finally,the usefulness of the framework is demonstrated through a case study,and its effectiveness is illustrated through a series of comparisons.

Information Aggregation of Group Decision-Making in Emergency Events

Information is a key factor in emergency management, which helps decision makers to make effective decisions. In this paper, aiming at clarifying the information aggregation laws, and according to the characteristic of emergency information, information relative entropy is applied in the information aggregation to establish the information aggregation model of emergency group decision-making. The analysis shows that support and credibility of decision rule are the two factors in information aggregation. The results of four emergency decision-making groups in case study support the analysis in the paper.

Referrals to Emergency Departments—— The Processes and Factors That Influence Decision-Making among Community Nurses

The aim of the study was to describe the basis on which municipal care registered nurses (RN) make decisions and their experiences when referring older persons from nursing homes to emergency departments (EDs). RNs in the community are to ensure that older adults receive good care quality in nursing home. This study used a descriptive design with a qualitative content analysis. The analysis of the data from the 13 interviews revealed one theme “Shared responsibilities in the best interests of the older person reduce feelings of insufficiency”. The content was formulated, which revealed the RNs’ feelings, reasoning and factors influencing them and their actions in the decision-making situation, before the patients were referred to an emergency department. Complex illnesses, non-adapted organizations, considerations about what was good and right in order to meet the older person’s needs, taking account of her/his life-world, health, well-being and best interests were reported. Co-worker competencies and open dialogues in the “inner circle” were crucial for the nurses’ confidence in the decision. Hesitation to refer was associated with previous negative reactions from ED professionals. The RN sometimes express that they lacked medical knowledge and were uncertain how to judge the acute illness or changes. Access to the “outer circle”, i.e. physicians and hospital colleagues, was necessary to counteract feelings of insecurity about referrals. When difficult decisions have to be made, not only medical facts but also relationships are of importance. To strengthen the RNs’ and staff members’ competence by means of education seems to be important for avoiding unnecessary referrals. Guidelines and work routine need to be more transparent and referrals due to the lack of resources are not only wasteful but can worsen the older persons’ health.

Characteristics of Decision-Making by Family Members When Older Adults Are Hospitalized in Emergency Cases with Life-Threatening Conditions

Aim: This study aims to elucidate decision-making characteristics based on interviews with family members with experience in having to select treatments for older adult patients who have been hospitalized following emergency transport to the hospital. Design: Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 individuals with experience in surrogate decision-making for an older adult family member. Methods: The recorded interview data were transcribed verbatim, divided into minimum semantic units, and coded. Next, categories and subcategories were abstracted. A comparison was made with the conceptual constructs of a previous study that examined decision-making by families in a life-threatening crisis. Results: Four categories were extracted from 489 antecedents, 370 attributes, and 388 consequences. One new category was abstracted for each of: 1) antecedents: observing abnormalities and responding, while being worried about death;2) attributes: deliberating on the patient prognosis, the relationship with the patient, and what they believe the patient would want;and 3) consequences: continuing support during convalescence. It is desirable to provide support based on the characteristics of families of older adults, including considering the psychological burden on the families who make surrogate decisions, and also the burden of subsequent caregiving because it is not and in the present environment has not been common for patients to express their wishes beforehand.

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Location-allocation modeling for emergency evacuation planning with GIS and remote sensing:A case study of Northeast Bangladesh

This work developed models to identify optimal spatial distribution of emergency evacuation centers(EECs)such as schools,colleges,hospitals,and fire stations to improve flood emergency planning in the Sylhet region of northeastern Bangladesh.The use of location-allocation models(LAMs)for evacuation in regard to flood victims is essential to minimize disaster risk.In the first step,flood susceptibility maps were developed using machine learning models(MLMs),including:Levenberg-Marquardt back propagation(LM-BP)neural network and decision trees(DT)and multi-criteria decision making(MCDM)method.Performance of the MLMs and MCDM techniques were assessed considering the area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)curve.Mathematical approaches in a geographic information system(GIS)for four well-known LAM problems affecting emergency rescue time are proposed:maximal covering location problem(MCLP),the maximize attendance(MA),p-median problem(PMP),and the location set covering problem(LSCP).The results showed that existing EECs were not optimally distributed,and that some areas were not adequately served by EECs(i.e.,not all demand points could be reached within a 60-min travel time).We concluded that the proposed models can be used to improve planning of the distribution of EECs,and that application of the models could contribute to reducing human casualties,property losses,and improve emergency operation.

A comparison of perspectives on costs in emergency care among emergency department patients and residents

BACKGROUND: Costs of care are increasingly important in healthcare policy and, more recently, in clinical care in the emergency department(ED). We compare ED resident and patient perspectives surrounding costs in emergency care.METHODS: We conducted a mixed methods study using surveys and qualitative interviews at a single, academic ED in the United States. The two study populations were a convenience sample of adult ED patients(>17 years of age) and ED residents training at the same institution. Participants answered open- and closed-ended questions on costs, medical decision making, cost-related compliance, and communication about costs. Closed-ended data were tabulated and described using standard statistics while open-ended responses were analyzed using grounded theory.RESULTS: Thirty ED patients and 24 ED residents participated in the study. Both patients and residents generally did not have knowledge of medical costs. Patients were comfortable discussing costs while residents were less comfortable. Residents agreed that doctors should consider costs when making medical decisions whereas patients somewhat disagreed. Additionally, residents generally took costs into consideration during clinical decision-making, yet nearly all residents agreed that they had too little education on costs.CONCLUSION: There were several notable differences in ED patient and resident perspectives on costs in this U.S. sample. While patients somewhat disagree that cost should factor into decision making, generally they are comfortable discussing costs yet report having insuf? cient knowledge of what care costs. Conversely, ED residents view costs as important and agree that cost should factor into decision making but lack education on what emergency care costs.

SUBJECTIVE RADE-OFF RATE METHOD OF MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING

This paper proposes a mathod of subjective trade-off rate which describles decision-maker's preferince in multiobjective decision-making. Decision-maker can arbitrarity determine his subjective trade-off rate,but it is not sure to be effective.The paper finds aft effective upper bound of subjective trade-off rate,which is the KuhnThcker multiplier of some mathematical programming.For the anbjective trade-off rate not being larger than the upper bonnd,the solving method and properties of the optimal solution corresponding tile trade-off rate are discussed.The paper lastly develops the process of solving multiobjective decision-making with the subjective trade-off rate method.

Emerging Voices Graffiti Begins to Make its Mark in China

■There are those who believe that graffiti is little more than the mindless vandalism of public property; the puerile scrawling of juvenile miscreants with too much time and not enough guidance. The problem with this assertion is that it fails to explain the truly global appeal of

基于ESISS⁃ACS分级联合共享决策干预对心肌梗死PCI术后病人的影响

目的:探索基于急性冠脉综合征危重度评分系统(ESISS⁃ACS)分级联合共享决策干预对心肌梗死经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)术后病人的影响。方法:选取江苏省无锡市第二人民医院心血管科2022年12月—2023年11月收治的158例心肌梗死PCI病人作为研究对象,以入院先后顺序分为对照组和观察组,各79例。对照组实施常规护理,观察组在对照组基础上实施基于ESISS⁃ACS分级联合共享决策干预。干预28 d后,比较两组病人的机体功能、心理状况及生活质量等情况。结果:干预后,观察组Barthel指数评定量表评分[(79.89±15.41)分]、6 min步行试验距离[(980.93±47.36)m]均高于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);观察组汉密尔顿焦虑量表(HAMA)评分[(13.27±2.65)分]、汉密尔顿抑郁量表(HAMD)评分[(13.26±3.46)分]均低于对照组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.001);观察组世界卫生组织生活质量测评量表(WHOQOL)评分[(87.41±709)分]高于对照组[(75.37±6.43)分],差异有统计学意义(P<0.001)。结论:应用基于ESISS⁃ACS分级联合共享决策干预心肌梗死PCI病人,其效果明显优于常规护理,且病人的机体功能、心理状况及生活质量情况良好。

面向突发公共卫生事件的全流程应急决策体系构建

[研究目的]构建面向突发公共卫生事件的全流程应急决策体系,以辅助相关部门根据事件发展态势开展及时有效的动态分级决策。[研究方法]从应急决策的全流程出发,构建了包括情报获取渠道、情报感知路径和动态分级决策的全流程应急决策体系。首先,根据突发公共卫生事件的特点,建立了“五位一体”情报获取渠道;其次,基于情报感知理论,确立了从数据感知、情景感知到态势感知的应急情报感知路径;最后,结合动态决策知识库,构建了动态分级决策模型,以弥补决策实施的延时和反馈滞后的问题。[研究结果/结论]该应急决策体系可面向突发公共卫生事件应急决策全流程,提供情景适配的应急决策方案,为相关部门开展应急管理工作提供参考。

A Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method Based on Group Decision Making with Uncertainty Information

In emergency decision making(EDM),it is necessary to generate an effective alternative quickly.Case-based reasoning(CBR)has been applied to EDM;however,choosing the most suitable case from a set of similar cases after case retrieval remains challenging.This study proposes a dynamic method based on case retrieval and group decision making(GDM),called dynamic casebased reasoning group decision making(CBRGDM),for emergency alternative generation.In the proposed method,first,similar historical cases are identified through case similarity measurement.Then,evaluation information provided by group decision makers for similar cases is aggregated based on regret theory,and comprehensive perceived utilities for the similar cases are obtained.Finally,the most suitable historical case is obtained from the case similarities and the comprehensive perceived utilities for similar historical cases.The method is then applied to an example of a gas explosion in a coal company in China.The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective in EDM.The advantages of the proposed method are verified based on comparisons with existing methods.In particular,dynamic CBRGDM can adjust the emergency alternative according to changing emergencies.The results of application of dynamic CBRGDM to a gas explosion and comparison with existing methods verify its feasibility and practicability.

Improved TOPSIS decision model for NPP emergencies

In this paper,an improved decision model is developed for its use as a tool to respond to emergencies at nuclear power plants.Given the complexity of multi-attribute emergency decision-making on nuclear accident,the improved TOPSIS method is used to build a decision-making model that integrates subjective weight and objective weight of each evaluation index.A comparison between the results of this new model and two traditional methods of fuzzy hierarchy analysis method and weighted analysis method demonstrates that the improved TOPSIS model has a better evaluation effect.

基于韧性理论的突发事件情报决策体系研究

[目的/意义]突发事件为我国带来的危机层出不穷,如何以国家安全与发展需求为目标导向,有效化解国家安全风险是当务之急。然而情报在突发事件的应急决策工作中发挥着重要作用。[方法/过程]以韧性理论为顶层指导,以情报决策相关概念为基础,以政府为决策主体,梳理突发事件研究方向相关文献,构建基于韧性理论的突发事件情报决策体系。从情报流、业务流、决策流三条链路为线索,纵向刻画出体系的管理流程与运行逻辑。[结果/结论]以数据驱动、知识驱动为内在推动力,将韧性、情报注入决策体系,给突发事件的决策赋予了更高层次的智能性、智慧性,完善了突发事件应急管理的体系建设工作,为政府优化政策战略提供参考,使政府治理更具弹性与兼容性。

基于社交媒体数据的应急决策大群体群智知识挖掘及其价值测度方法研究

本文针对突发事件下的社交媒体数据体量庞大,但能够辅助应急决策的大群体群智知识分布无序且价值难以测度的问题,提出了一种应急决策大群体群智知识挖掘及其价值测度方法。首先,基于社交媒体博文数据,依据特定应急决策知识框架,采用TF-IDF(term frequency-inverse document trequency)法和改进后的词汇链算法构建了应急决策大群体群智知识挖掘方法;然后,提出了博文热度计算方法,在此基础上根据知识的语义重要性计算博文包含的群智知识总价值,并使用Shapley函数对群智知识价值进行分配;最后,以“新冠疫情”事件为案例对方法进行应用,并通过对比分析说明了方法的有效性和优越性。

非对称自信水平下突发事件响应等级研判方法——基于自信度调整视角

新形势下我国社会安全事件系统性风险凸显造成应急响应等级研判难度跃升,针对专家非对称自信水平下突发事件响应等级研判难题,建立基于信任的专家自信度调整策略,提出专家自信水平影响的应急响应等级研判方法。该方法利用专家提供的信任度和熟悉度构成二元函数描述专家间信任关系,构建基于信任机制的专家自信度调整策略,通过分析非对称自信水平中蕴含的专家研判不确定性,基于证据理论提出应急响应等级研判问题建模方法。在此基础上,综合证据的来源重要度和自身可信度,提出考虑决策者风险偏好的证据可靠度计算方法,赋予证据不同重要性以实现专家研判信息的准确融合,为突发事件应急响应等级综合研判提供决策支持。最后,利用算例验证了方法的实用性与先进性。结果表明:相比投票、权威等常用决策方法,本文所提方法适用性更广、可信性更高、实用性更强。

急诊危重症患者替代决策者参与医疗决策期望现状及影响因素分析

目的了解急诊危重症患者替代决策者参与医疗决策期望现状及影响因素,为改善急诊危重症患者及家属就医体验,提升其医疗决策参与能力提供参考。方法采用便利抽样法,选取2022年10月至2023年6月在广西某三级甲等医院急诊科参与替代决策的226名危重症患者家属为研究对象,通过问卷调查一般资料、应对方式以及决策倾向性,分析其参与医疗决策期望现状及影响因素。结果急诊危重症患者替代决策者参与医疗决策期望的总分为(50.10±5.10)分;Pearson相关性分析显示,急诊危重症患者替代决策者参医疗决策期望总分与积极应对呈正相关,与消极应对呈负相关(P<0.05);多元线性回归分析显示,替代决策者文化程度、与患者的关系、患者疾病种类以及是否理解医生的病情谈话内容均是急诊危重症患者替代决策者参与医疗决策期望的影响因素(均P<0.05)。结论急诊危重症患者替代决策者参与医疗决策期望较高且受多种因素影响,文化程度较高、患者子女、急性病就诊患者、理解医生的病情谈话内容的替代决策者参与医疗决策期望更高,采用个性化的决策辅助方案能够帮助医护人员改善其决策参与意愿,提高决策质量。

AIGC在应急情报服务中的应用研究

文章指出生成式人工智能(AIGC)应用于应急情报服务具有降低应急情报感知难度、打破应急情报信息壁垒、化解应急情报监管困境、克服危机模拟演练瓶颈的优势,基于AIGC应用于应急情报服务的核心组件,分析其在应急情报感知与采集、组织与存储、分析与研判、决策与评价等工作流程中的作用,并提出AIGC在应急情报服务中的应用策略,即立足总体国家安全观,强化顶层设计;兼具技术理性和人文关怀,推进人机协作;加强情报可靠性评估,注重风险溯源;夯实数据运行机制,确保数据安全。