Resilience assessment and optimization method of city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period

The post-earthquake emergency period,which is a sensitive time segment just after an event,mainly focuses on saving life and restoring social order.To improve the seismic resilience of city road networks,a resilience evaluation method used in the post-earthquake emergency period is proposed.The road seismic damage index of a city road network can consider the influence of roads,bridges and buildings along the roads,etc.on road capacity after an earthquake.A function index for a city road network is developed,which reflects the connectivity,redundancy,traffic demand and traffic function of the network.An optimization model for improving the road repair order in the post-earthquake emergency period is also developed according to the resilience evaluation,to enable decision support for city emergency management and achieve the best seismic resilience of the city road network.The optimization model is applied to a city road network and the results illustrate the feasibility of the resilience evaluation and optimization method for a city road network in the post-earthquake emergency period.

Clinical and epidemiological features of pelvic fractures presenting to the emergency department in a tertiary health care hospital in south India:A retrospective study

Objective:To determine the clinical and epidemiological features of pelvic fracture patients presenting to the Emergency Department.Methods:This prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care center in south India.Causes of injury,types of pelvic fractures,the associated injuries,and outcome at the time of discharge were recorded.Results:A total of 140 patients were included in this study.Most patients were classified as type A(n=62),followed by type B(n=48)and type C(n=30).A total of 112 patients were injured due to road traffic accidents,followed by a fall from a height(n=23)and a fall from a heavy object(n=5).Most subjects had facial injuries(n=99,70.7%),followed by head injuries(n=51,36.4%).Five percent of the patients were expired,12%left against medical advice,and 83%were discharged.Conclusions:The incidence of pelvic fractures presenting to the Emergency Department is relatively high in India.Road traffic accidents are the primary cause of pelvic fractures and associated facial and head injuries.The outcomes demonstrate the need for improved prevention strategies and comprehensive management protocols to reduce mortality.

Study on Optimization of Earthquake Emergency Traffic Scheduling Based on The Lifting of Cyberspace

How to improve the rescue efficiency of the network after the earthquake is the key content of emergency management decision-making, improve the efficiency of emergency rescue, and reduce the impact of emergency rescue to the non victims. Using cyberspace of lifeline network traffic and emergency transportation problem, considering the network restoration problem of disaster area, earthquake emergency supplies distribution model is established. In the model, to consider the need to repair the damaged sections and the existing emergency rescue generated traffic volume of emergency rescue network effects. And design heuristic algorithm for solving the model. Finally the example shows that in emergency rescue, emergency rescue of critical damage repair the road and traffic control of the whole lifeline network rescue efficiency highest, with the average nuisance greatly reduce, the lifeline network connectivity reliability.

Influence range of emergency under special events based on CTM

To determine the dynamic influence range of emergencies under special events, the spacial and temporal characteristics of the traffic flow are studied by simulation based on the cell transmission model （CTM）. Based on the traffic management measures used under special events, a semi-dynamic assignment algorithm is proposed, which is combined with an algorithm for logit multi-path traffic assignment and the CTM. In a simple calculation network, the spacial and temporal characteristics of traffic flows which vary with different traffic management schemes are studied, and a method to obtain the influence range of emergency is proposed by computing the jam time of the intersections. By contrasting the average delay of each vehicle, the dissipation effect is studied under two different traffic management schemes. The example shows that the spatial and temporal variety of the traffic flow can be easily simulated and the influence range of emergency can be confirmed by the method based on the CTM. The proposed method provides a new idea for decision-making on traffic management under emergency under special events.

A Robust Emergency Messages Routing Scheme for Urban VANETs

Vehicular ad-hoc networks(VANETs)play an essential role in enhancing transport infrastructure by making vehicles intelligent and proficient in preventing traffic fatalities.Direction-based greedy protocols pick the next route vehicle for transmitting emergency messages(EMs)depending upon the present location of adjacent vehicles towards sink vehicles by using an optimal uni-directional road traffic approach.Nevertheless,such protocols suffer performance degradation by ignoring the moving directions of vehicles in bi-directional road traffic where topological changes happen continuously.Due to the high number of vehicles,it is essential to broadcast EMs to all vehicles to prevent traffic delays and collisions.A cluster-based EM transmitting technique is proposed in this paper.For urban VANETs,this paper pioneers the clustering of bi-directional road traffic for robust and efficient routing of EMs.In this regard,this paper introduces a routing protocol,namely,the bi-directional urban routing protocol(BURP).In addition to the paths and relative locations of vehicles,BURP takes account of the distance parameter by using the Hamming distance function to determine the direction ofmotion of vehicles and communicates EMs through the cluster head(CH).Amodified k-medoids algorithm is presented for the clustering of bi-directional road traffic.A median method is presented for selecting CH to ensure the longrunning of a cluster.Simulation results show that BURP provides enhanced throughput,a maximized packet delivery ratio,low energy consumption,and network delay relative to eminent routing protocols.

考虑暴雨灾害动态影响的城市应急车辆救援路径优化研究

近年来,极端天气事件发生频次不断增加,强度不断加大,其中,由暴雨引发的城市内涝导致交通应急事件发生概率进一步增大。为提升暴雨灾害下应急救援响应速度,本文开展应急车辆救援路径优化研究。以通行时间最短为目标,考虑路面积水对车辆通行速度的动态影响,构建应急车辆救援路径优化模型,提出动态最短路径优化算法求解模型。选取上海市长宁区东北部作为研究区域,根据SWMM(Storm Water Management Model)模拟得到的50年一遇暴雨条件下城市道路路面的积水情况,设定应急救援场景,求解应急救援路径。通过本文提出算法求解得到的路径与传统静态最短路径算法求解结果对比可知,通行用时同比减少了25.42%。同时,考虑应急物资储备情况分配应急救援任务,扩展了算法的应用场景,形成可靠和高效的应急响应方案,可为提升暴雨灾害下应急响应效率提供参考。

城市交通应急保障与管理技术提升研究

伴随城镇化率的持续提升,我国城市规模显著增大,城市拥有人口数直线增多,对交通出行表现出了更多需求期待。受到诸多复杂因素影响,城市地区出现各种重大突发事件可能性大幅提升。本文以鄂尔多斯市为研究对象,探讨突发事件发生前后出行特征的变化,构建重大突发事件背景下的城市交通应急能力综合评价体系,并依据评价结果对如何强化交通应急保障与管理进行探索。

应急情境下管制员情境意识可靠性研究

为提升管制员的应急处置能力,从管制员的个人能力、管制任务特点和管制设备3个方面构建管制员情境意识(SA)可靠性模型;利用塔台管制模拟软件和SA全面评价技术(SAGAT)测量管制员在应急情境下的SA水平;基于贝叶斯网络(BN)对SA可靠性进行定量分析,进而预测管制员的SA水平,并基于贝叶斯推理分析影响管制员SA可靠性的关键因素。研究结果表明:应急情境下,管制员SA可靠性和SA水平显著正相关,可通过管制员的SA可靠性预测SA水平;通过BN推理分析发现,对管制员的SA可靠性影响程度和敏感程度较高的因素为调配飞机可用时间、管制设备的精准度和管制员的记忆力;对管制员SA可靠性影响最大的致因链为调配飞机可用时间→任务特点→SA可靠性。

融合交通态势修正的台风灾害后多维度智能调拨策略

针对台风灾害后交通信息不确定、调拨策略考虑维度不足等问题,提出融合交通态势修正的台风灾害后多维度智能调拨策略。采用历史交通态势数据拟合道路通行时间概率分布,并基于拉丁超立方采样对交通态势进行随机抽样,以计算更准确的道路通行时间。考虑交通、电网、用户等多维度,以抢修队伍、抢修物资、应急发电车等作为调拨主体进行台风灾害后抢修调拨,提出考虑调拨距离、恢复时间、失负荷量最优的多维智能调拨策略,利用模糊隶属度函数求取帕累托前沿最优调拨方案。根据2018年台风“山竹”下的珠海市数据验证调拨策略的有效性。算例结果表明所提多维度智能调拨策略能有效缩短台风灾害后恢复进程,提升电网防灾减灾能力。

昆明市高速公路交通伤现状分析

目的对2016年1月—2021年12月进出昆明市的5条高速公路所发生交通事故的现状进行分析,为有效干预及预防高速公路交通伤发生提供依据。方法分析云南省高速公路交巡警支队提供的2016—2021年昆曲、昆玉、昆楚、昆石、昆武5条高速公路全年发生的交通事故伤亡数据,对其流行病学特点进行调查分析,用构成比或率来描述流行病学及死亡病因等因素,组间比较采用卡方检验。结果2016—2021年昆明市高速公路道路交通事故共发生75166起,造成8865人受伤,481人死亡。近年来昆明市高速公路交通伤死亡人数呈逐年下降的趋势(χ^(2)=10.866,P<0.001)。造成事故主要死亡原因前三位为行人违法(21.20%)、疲劳驾驶(16.21%)及超速行驶(12.88%),高发月份为5月(11.23%);主要集中时段在夜间(20时~次日8时),占全部事故的55.51%,其中22时~24时最多,占全部事故的10.40%;8时~10时死亡人数最少。结论昆明市高速公路交通事故造成死亡人数呈现逐年下降趋势,行人违法、疲劳驾驶及超速是造成事故死亡的主要原因,5月为事故高发月份,每天的夜间22时~24时为高峰期。

道路交通事故处置安全管控措施探讨

针对车辆交通事故类型多样、事故突发、调度力量多、救援危险性大、易引发次生灾害的5个特点,深入分析并归纳总结了造成消防救援人员伤亡的3方面原因,包括风险研判不足、阵地设置不当、安全措施不当等,并进一步提出交通事故处置过程中力量调派、人员分工、安全评估、现场警戒、救人排险、现场清理6个重点环节的安全管控措施。

基于双层规划的城市交通疏散与应急车辆调度协同决策

针对城市中可能同时发生多起事故的严峻形势,研究拥堵交通状态下的应急救援问题,构建了一种疏散与调度协同决策的双层优化模型。上层模型考虑行程距离得到备选救援路径;下层模型以救援最公平和行程时间最小为目标,以救援需求和时间窗为约束优化应急车辆调度方案,以路段最大流量和事故严重程度为约束优化交通疏散方案。为求解下层协同决策模型,设计了一种具有基因表达调控策略编码的改进遗传算法。算例结果表明:沿救援路径进行交通疏散,救援总行程时间较疏散前降低了24.02%;与BA、SFLA两种群智能优化算法相比,改进遗传算法最优解的平均目标值分别减少了10.17%、13.19%。

降雨影响下道路交通应急疏散优化研究

为了在降雨情景下更安全地组织交通应急疏散,提出考虑降雨影响的动态网络加载路段传输模型,引入“降雨强度-路面积水深度-交通自由流速度”关系方程,建立道路交通应急疏散优化模型并设计分阶段算法,研究降雨强度与路面积水深度对应急疏散优化效果的影响规律。研究结果表明:不同程度降雨和道路积水深度对疏散效率影响不同,引发交通拥堵或加剧拥堵程度。研究结果可为制定降雨影响下交通疏散应急预案提供参考。

交通救援应急中转路径调度数学模型构建仿真

由于交通状况往往是动态变化的,包括交通拥堵、道路封闭等情况,救援应急时导致车辆中转路径调度救援应急难度加大。为进一步提升应急救援时救援车的救援效果,提出交通救援应急中转路径实时调度数学建模方法。根据城市交通中信号交叉口车辆的微观运行特征,确定车辆应急救援时道路交叉路口应急安全状态;设计救援应急中转路径调度模型,将模型分为上下两个层级,结合混合布谷鸟算法求解模型,完成救援应急中转路径实时调度。实验结果表明,利用上述方法开展救援应急中转路径实时调度时,路径中转次数最多仅为10次,耗时为150ms,调度效果好、性能高。

基于涟漪扩散算法的应急疏散路径优化方法研究

针对大型公共场所内人群应急疏散路径优化问题,本文提出一种考虑容量限制的多起点多终点涟漪扩散算法(Capacity Constrained Ripple Spreading Algorithm,CCRSA)。该算法通过动态更新各链接在各时刻的剩余最大通行容量,容量不足时添加涟漪在节点的等待行为,一次性得出多个起点到多个终点的包含等待时间的疏散时间最短路径;并使用路径寻优规则确定优先疏散路径,分配疏散人员数量,实行差异化疏散,提高路网中各链接的利用率。使用大量具有不同节点数量、不同待疏散人数的随机路网与北京颐和园实际路网案例对算法进行测试,并设置了疏散时间、人员实际/理想疏散时间标准差、程序运行时间这3个评价标准。实验结果表明:与传统的应急疏散路径规划算法相比,CCRSA平均可减少13.07%的人群疏散时间,以较高运行效率得到更加满足各疏散人员期望的疏散方案。

基于系统论的城市应急管理大类专业教学研究——以轨道交通运营与应急课程为例

该文应用系统工程方法论,一是对应急管理各环节进行内涵解释,剖析城市应急普适性技术,对城市主要场景安全管控要点进行梳理和阐释;二是以轨道交通运营与应急课程为例,提出采用多映射组合、多维度融合、多主线贯通的技术思路,在现象层面对城市轨道交通安全与应急各环节与模块关联关系及相互制约影响进行归纳和剖析,在管理层面对城市轨道交通安全管控和应急处置的条件、环境进行提炼并解释,利用思维导图、人机工程学、系统动力学等对轨道交通运营与应急课程知识进行图示化、结构化、层次化的知识库、图谱构建,以使得该类课程更符合我国未来现代化大城市及城市群协同应急要求。

快速反应院前急救对交通事故致严重多发伤患者的效果

目的 分析快速反应院前急救在交通事故致严重多发伤患者的应用效果。方法 选取2021年2月至2023年2月于泉州市急救指挥中心治疗的80例交通事故致严重多发伤患者,随机分为两组,试验组(40例)院前急救护理中采用快速反应模式,对照组(40例)急救护理中采用常规模式,对比两组意识障碍、日常生活活动能力、体征指标、急诊各环节时间及患者满意度。结果 试验组意识障碍、日常生活活动能力、体征指标水平改善情况明显优于对照组(P <0.05);试验组院前急救反应、接收、评估、转运、核血备血、预检分诊、到达手术室或重症监护室、医师到诊时间均短于对照组(P <0.05);试验组患者或其家属满意度高于对照组(P <0.05)。结论 对交通事故致严重多发伤患者实施快速反应院前急救处理具有良好的应用效果,能有利于缩短患者的院前急救反应时间等急诊各环节时间,改善患者的体征状况、生活能力,提升患者满意度。

考虑动态交通网络的区域电-气互联系统灾后故障抢修策略

为了减弱极端事件对综合能源系统的影响,尽早恢复各类负荷,提高系统弹性。文中提出了一种考虑交通网与配电网级别的区域电-气互联系统(Interconnection Electric and Gas System,IEGS)协同运行的灾后故障抢修策略。首先,通过元胞传输模型建立了考虑系统实时恢复指标修正的交通流量分配模型,对交通网的交通流量进行预测;其次,在故障预分配的前提下建立了区域IEGS的故障恢复模型,协调优化维修队、分布式电源、配电网网架等资源,减少停电损失;然后以维修队的最小通行时间矩阵以及由系统实时恢复指标得到的交通网道路修正参数作为传递变量,在维修队开始移动的时间点,重新计算后续的修复计划以及交通网的运行情况,进行多时间断面优化;最后,通过算例仿真进行对比,验证了所提策略的有效性,并分析移动储能装置对故障恢复的影响。

特大暴雨下城市地铁人员应急救援与疏散优化

为提高特大暴雨下地铁车站人员救援与疏散效率,提出地铁人员的应急救援与疏散优化建模与求解方法,旨在协同优化救援中心选址、应急路径设计与分配决策。针对特大暴雨的危害性和地铁被困人员的心理恐慌程度,改进感知风险度量模型。结合应急救援与疏散的阶段性,建立成本和感知风险最小的应急救援与疏散的选址-路径优化模型。设计基于分解多目标进化算法和分支切割算法的两阶段求解步骤。最后,通过郑州实例和测试算例,验证新模型和算法的有效性。计算结果表明:新模型和算法能在2.13 s内求得有效方案;相较于传统风险模型,新模型能够降低9.03%的运输成本;相较于常规的多目标优化算法,新算法能缩短至少60.00%的求解时间,并有较高的计算稳定性。

中小商家新兴网络折扣平台入驻动机研究——基于客户运营能力视角

新兴网络平台的发展需要吸引有市场运营经验和能力的商家加盟。本研究以新兴网络折扣平台为例,以电商平台中特定行业(某电子消费品行业)里的中小商家为观察样本,结合动态能力理论,运用个体面板固定效应模型,探究以免费引流为主的高客户运营能力的商家和以付费引流为主的低客户运营能力的商家对新兴网络折扣平台的采纳意愿,并分析了影响采纳意愿的边界条件。本研究的结果表明,保持竞争优势和减少流量依赖是影响上述两类商家采纳新兴网络折扣平台的主要动机。但是在品牌强度与用户黏度的调节作用下,不同流量来源的商家对新兴网络折扣平台的采纳度又会有所差异。本研究不仅丰富了新兴网络平台入驻的相关研究,也为中小商家的引流策略带来了新的启示。