Science of empirical design in mining ground control

Many problems in rock engineering are limited by our imperfect knowledge of the material properties and failure mechanics of rock masses. Mining problems are somewhat unique, however, in that plenty of real world experience is generally available and can be turned into valuable experimental data.Every pillar that is developed, or stope that is mined, represents a full-scale test of a rock mechanics design. By harvesting these data, and then using the appropriate statistical techniques to interpret them,mining engineers have developed powerful design techniques that are widely used around the world.Successful empirical methods are readily accepted because they are simple, transparent, practical, and firmly tethered to reality. The author has been intimately associated with empirical design for his entire career, but his previous publications have described the application of individual techniques to specific problems. The focus of this paper is the process used to develop a successful empirical method. A sixstage process is described: identification of the problem, and of the end users of the final product; development of a conceptual rock mechanics model, and identification of the key parameters in that model;identification of measures for each of the key parameters, and the development of new measures(such as rating scales) where necessary; data sources and data collection; statistical analysis; and packaging of the final product. Each of these stages has its own potential rewards and pitfalls, which will be illustrated by incidents from the author's own experience. The ultimate goal of this paper is to provide a new and deeper appreciation for empirical techniques, as well as some guidelines and opportunities for future developers.

Impacts of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on annual runoff in the Chaohe River Basin during 1961-2005

Taking the Chaohe River Basin above the Miyun Reservoir in North China as a study area, the characteristics and variation trends of annual runoff and annual precipitation during 1961-2005 were analyzed applying Mann-Kendall test method on the basis of the hydrologic data of the major hydrological station （Xiahui Station） located at the outlet of the drainage basin and the meteorological data of 17 rainfall stations. Human activities including water conservancy projects construction and water diversion as well as implementation of soil and water conservation from 1961 to 2005 were carefully studied using time series contrasting method. The referenced period （1961-1980） that influenced slightly by human activities and the compared period （1981-2005） that influenced significantly by water conservancy and soil conservation measures were identified according to the runoff variation process analysis and abrupt change points detection during 1961-2005 applying double accumulative curve method, mean shift t-test method and Mann-Kendall mutation test technique. Based on the establishment of a rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model, impacts and the runoff-reducing effects of water conservancy and soil conservation measures on runoff reduction were evaluated quantitatively. The major results could be summarized as follows： （1） The annual precipitation in the drainage basin tends to decrease while the runoff has declined markedly since the 1960s, the average annual runoff from 1991 to 2000 was only 90.9% in proportion to that from 1961 to 1970. （2） The annual runoff variations in the drainage basin are significantly related to human activities. （3） During 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2005 and 1981-2005, the average annual runoff reduction amounts were 1.15×10^8, 0.28×10^8, 1.10×10^8 and 0.79×10^8 m^3 respectively and the average annual runoff-reducing effects were 31.99%, 7.13%, 40.71% and 23.79% accordingly. Runoff-reducing effects by water conservancy and soil conservation measures are more prominent in the low water period.