Economic and employment effects of China's power transition based on input‒output and scenario simulation

With high carbon emission,the low-carbon transition of power sector will be critical for China to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.The power transition will have an impact on the economy and employment through the value chain.Quantifying the impact is important for China's future energy and welfare policies.This study adopts input‒output model to analyze the impact on economy and employment based on accelerated and slow power transition scenarios.The results show that the low-carbon power transition will have a negative impact on coal power and coal mining and washing sectors,while a positive impact on machine manufacturing and equipment sector.Low-carbon power transition will have a positive economic and employment effect to promote inclusive growth.By 2060,economic output will increase by about 8.50 trillion CNY,value-added by about 3.39 trillion CNY,and employment will increase by about 3.74 million.Although slower coal power transition can stabilize the economic and employment effect in the short and medium run,accelerating the power transition will produce more positive effect and lower job losses by coal power in the long run.By 2060,accelerating transition will boost output by 8.21%,value-added by 8.20%and jobs by 7.97%.Accordingly,the government should establish an all-round just low-carbon transition mechanism.

Employment Effect of the Resource-abundant Industrial Cluster in Southwestern Region of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region of China——A Case of Chongzuo City

Taking Chongzuo City of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region as an example, the employment effect of the resource-abundant industrial cluster in southwestern Guangxi Province is analyzed according to the data from the Chongzuo Statistical Yearbook , Guangxi Statistical Yearbook from 2003 to 2008 and the data from the relevant sections of Chongzuo City, and the four employment effects of industrial cluster--the spatial expansion effect of employment chain, optimizing effect of employment structure, the multiplier effect of employment absorption and the effect of improving the quality of labors and the degree of the intensity of employment and location quotient of employment. Results show that the employment absorption of sugar industry in Chongzuo City is stable and upward slightly, and it shows strong employment effect; the sugar industry in Chongzuo is not only competitive, but also has a great share of market in employment, so it owns strong absorption of employment. The countermeasures for improving the employment level of resource-abundant and industrial cluster in southwest of Guangxi Province are put forward, including elongating industrial chain and widening employment space; strengthening various kinds of formal and informal training to improve the employment capability of laborers; laying stress on industrial structure and optimizing the employment structure; strengthening the construction of the industrial economic zone towards ASEAN(Association of Southeast Asian Nations), and fully displaying the regional advantages of the offshore border.