Will the Service Sector Promote China’s Long-Term Employment Growth?

The coexistence of the slowing-down economy and the buoyant employment market has been the pattern in China in recent years, and the service sector has played an important role in this regard. This paper uses empirical analysis to prove that the service sector has a long-term mechanism to promote employment growth： first, the verification of the Baumol-Fuchs hypothesis shows that the income elasticity of demand for services in China is greater than 1. As the current development of the services is lagging behind, this sector has great development potential. Second, the revised employment equation shows that the employment elasticity of the service sector is much higher than that of the industrial sector, and its employment adhesiveness is stronger as well. The employment of the service sector can not only create more jobs for the national economy, but also help stabilize the job market. The employment pressure in China is mainly caused by migrant workers and college graduates. To solve the employment problems of these two groups, China has to promote the development of traditional services and speed up the upgrading of emerging services at the same time, and should neglect neither. This paper provides recommendations accordingly.

A Quantitative Study on the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Employment Structure in Yulin

Reasonable industrial structure can promote the benign development of employment structure, and the coordination of the employment structure but also for industrial restructuring and upgrading to lay a solid foundation. This article take Yulin as an example, uses 1990-2014 year three industrial output value and the employment population statistical data, uses the statistics gauging device that has conducted the quantitative investigation to the Yulin industrial structure and the employment structure relations. First, this paper describes the evolution process of Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure. Secondly, it uses the correlation analysis to confirm the strong correlation between Yulin’s industrial structure and employment structure, then, from the industrial structure deviation and employment elasticity, and the second industry, the first industry, labor surplus. Finally, according to the research income, gives the rational distribution of industrial layout to promote employment growh in the third industry and the policy recommendations.

The Research of actual Effect of Delay Retirement on Youth Employment

Since China＇s reform and opening up, the life expectancy of the population has prolonged. As a result, the trend of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The time was pushed back when young workers entered the labor market, while the phenomenon was common that the elderly who should have retired were still engaged in working. Therefore, the retirement age shall be subjected to an imperative delay. In the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the central government proposed the ＂formulation of gradual delay retirement scheme ＂, which triggered a widespread concern among all sectors in the society. Support and opposition to delay of retirement focus on the impact made by extension of retirement age on the employment. The youth employment, however, is still the issue of social concemThis paper makes a systematic study on the controversy of the relevant scholars, and makes a detailed investigation of the reasons behind the various viewpoints, which is beneficial to the judgment of the rationality between the two parties of the dispute, and then seeks the solution to the problem.

Forecasting China's Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period

The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth.The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China's labor supply and demand during the 13 th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future.The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education.while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries. The results show that, during the 13 th FiveYear Plan period.the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly, with an average annual increment of around 15.68 million. At the same time.labor demand would increase steadily, with annually 15.42 million employment opportunities. Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however,there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market.Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand,we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40's and 50's generations,migrant workers and college graduates,and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates.

弹性雇佣与柔性管理:多重制度逻辑下高校新型教师聘用制度运行机制研究

弹性雇佣与柔性管理是高校实施新型教师聘用制度时回应多重逻辑复杂性的前提与特征。新型教师聘用制度受国家逻辑、市场逻辑和学术逻辑的共同影响。高校采取国家逻辑融合市场逻辑、市场逻辑兼顾学术逻辑的策略回应教师聘用制度逻辑复杂性。国家逻辑融合市场逻辑需以弹性雇佣为前提,借助改革赋权加大市场化聘用正当性,利用专项经费降低市场化聘用成本以及使用事业编制的稳定与助推功能。市场逻辑兼容学术逻辑的特征是柔性管理,通过有限的象征性学术资源、明确的教师身份认同感、折中的职业流动与学术激励得以实现。

企业数字化对劳动力市场就业风险的影响

企业数字化是数字经济的微观形态,对劳动力市场将产生深刻影响。在劳动力价格不断上涨的背景下,探讨企业数字化如何影响就业风险具有重要意义。采用劳动力需求弹性衡量劳动力市场就业风险,基于2010—2020年中国A股上市企业数据考察企业数字化对就业风险的影响,发现企业数字化能够降低劳动力市场的就业风险,总体上具有积极的就业效应。从作用机制来看,企业数字化通过生产力机制与资源机制对劳动力市场就业风险产生影响,前者表现为替代效应与规模效应,后者表现为融资效应,其中替代效应深化就业风险,而规模效应与融资效应缓解就业风险。实证结果表明,生产力机制的规模效应与资源机制的融资效应占据主导地位,这两个效应均显著存在。在数字经济所催生的企业数字化过程中,借助数字化转型推动企业发展,进而改善经营状况,对化解劳动者就业风险,实现更加充分更高质量就业具有积极意义。

就业弹性系数急剧下降:事实还是假象

不少学者认为我国未来就业形势严峻 ,其依据是就业弹性系数不断下降 ,但是作者认为如果把隐性失业考虑进去 ,却发现至少 80年代中期到 90年代中期这 10年间就业弹性系数只是出现了不稳定的震荡 。

试论加入WTO对中国就业结构的影响

在分析就业弹性变化的基础上 ,本文考察了入世对就业的影响。总体上来看 ,WTO对就业的影响在方向上和目前就业的发展和变化趋势一致 ,这就决定了入世对就业不会造成净负面影响。但分三次产业来看 ,入世对就业的影响是不同的。农业是受入世影响和冲击最严重的行业 ,但农业因此而损失的就业机会只相当于目前农村剩余劳动力数量的极小一部分 ,约占 0 .7～ 1 %左右 ,入世对农业的影响和冲击主要体现在收入而不是就业上 ;入世对工业就业的影响有正有负 ,这要依具体工业行业特点而定 ,但增减相抵 ,入世对工业就业仍然具有增加效应 ;最后 ,入世将大大促进就业机会的增加 ,第三产业就业是中国入世最大的收益者。

旅游就业波动的弹性分析——对饭店、旅行社行业的实证考察

由官方数据可以看出,旅游就业具有明显的周期性波动,主要表现在季节性和事件性两个方面。为了探讨旅游行业内不同因素对就业的影响,本文首先建立了旅游就业与饭店、旅行社发展的关系模型,然后分别采用ADF检验和Johnsen的多变量检验方法进行单位根检验和协整检验,最后对就业波动弹性进行方差分解。分解结果显示:饭店和旅行社的发展在总量上显著影响就业,但它们的发展变化对就业波动的弹性影响不大。旅游就业中,间接就业即由旅游所带动的其他就业的增加比直接就业更加重要。

西藏发展旅游对就业的贡献研究

青藏铁路开通以来,西藏旅游业获得快速发展。西藏发展旅游业对社会就业有何影响,是研究的重点。文章采用旅游就业容量、就业弹性和就业乘数等指标,全面科学地评价旅游产业的就业贡献,为客观评价西藏旅游就业效应提供科学的依据。

国际贸易与劳动力市场:研究述评

近三十年来,国际贸易迅速发展,同时各国劳动力市场保持着一种动态变化,国际贸易对劳动力市场的影响不断加深。在这一背景下,国际经济学和劳动经济学领域的学者对国际贸易与劳动力市场的关系进行了大量的理论与经验研究,相关研究主要集中在三个方面:国际贸易对各国工资的影响、国际贸易对各国就业的效应以及国际贸易对劳动力需求弹性的影响。本文将从上述三个方面对相关研究进行回顾。

北京市产业结构与就业结构的协调性分析

本文基于1978～2012年的相关数据对北京市产业结构与就业结构是否相协调进行了实证分析。研究表明，自改革开放以来，北京市产业结构变化促进了就业增长，但较产业结构的变动而言，就业结构的变动存在滞后性。最后提出可以通过调整产业结构、提高劳动者素质、大力支持小微企业发展等途径来促进北京市产业结构与就业结构协调发展。

中国第三产业就业效应的实证分析

就业效应是第三产业的一个显著特点。一方面,通过发展第三产业可以促进就业;另一方面,又可通过就业的扩大推动第三产业的发展,实现发展第三产业与扩大就业的良性互动。文章在分析我国第三产业发展和劳动就业现状的基础上,运用计量分析的方法,对第三产业发展中的劳动就业贡献率及其对劳动力的吸纳能力进行了分析,并提出了相关的政策建议。

对旅游就业弹性测量的实证研究——以浙江省为例

本文对旅游就业弹性进行了线性测量,较之于以往点弹性的测量能够更好的反映旅游经济增长与旅游就业增长之间的关系,测算出的旅游就业弹性大于第三产业的总体水平,因此得出结论:发展旅游业有利于更好地促进就业。本文的创新点在于提出了旅游就业人数的核算方法和旅游业就业弹性的线性测量方法。

我国当前就业态势的定量分析与对策

针对我国目前城镇失业率逐渐爬高的态势，先利用托达罗均衡失业率模型对我国历年的均衡失业率进行估算，进而得出我国目前的失业率在８％左右。然后又分别利用就业弹性理论分析我国三产业的就业状况，指出就业弹性的下降是我国失业问题的成因之一。最后提出了解决我国目前失业问题的若干政策建议。

我国经济增长与就业增长关系的实证研究

经济增长与劳动就业有着密切的关系。一般认为,经济增长能带动就业增长,就业增长反过来也能促进经济增长,而我国的统计数据则显示两者存在着明显的非一致性。通过对不同指标进行比较和实证研究,在分析我国经济增长和就业增长不一致性的原因基础上,提出了可行性建议。

现代服务业发展与就业吸纳能力的实证分析

依据我国 1991～2012年的相关数据， 采用就业弹性回归法、 就业弹性差 分法、 产业结构偏离度法等对现代服务业发展与就业吸纳能力之间的关系进行实证分析。 研究结果显示： 我国现代服务业经济增长与就业人数之间存在正相关关系； 现代服务业增加值比重、 就业比重都相对偏低； 现代服务业中的房地产业， 金融业，信息传输、 计算机服务和软件业等是未来就业吸纳能力较强的行业。 针对研究结果就如何实现现代服务业与就业增长的协调发展提出相关建议。

我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力的实证分析

基于就业弹性的视角对我国产业结构与就业吸纳能力进行实证分析发现,我国第一产业拉动就业不足,第三产业拉动就业能力较强。再通过比较我国结构偏离系数与国际标准结构偏离系数发现:第一产业存在大量的隐性失业,第二产业吸纳就业能力在减弱,劳动力在向第三产业转移;各行业直接或者间接吸纳就业能力不同,批零餐饮业和社会服务等行业拉动就业作用最强。最后,从消除第一产业隐性失业、发展劳动密集型产业等角度提出了一些解决我国结构性就业矛盾的政策建议。

西安市第三产业就业的实证分析

结合近20年来西安市第三产业就业情况的数据,分析了其吸纳劳动力的过程和现状;同时借助就业产值弹性等方法将三次产业之间和第三产业内部就业的结构情况与国外及北京、上海的情况进行了比较分析。最终得出了西安市第三产业的就业特点和发展趋势。

政府R＆D支出的就业乘数效应研究

本文利用状态空间办法建立了20世纪90年代以来政府R&D支出与就业可变参数模型,估计并计算得到动态的就业乘数。通过理论推导和实证分析,得出结论:政府R&D支出的就业乘数效应取决于技术与经济相互作用中的几个重要参数,它们包括政府R&D支出诱导乘数、技术形成乘数、技术转化乘数以及就业弹性系数,最后还分析和讨论了影响上述参数的各种因素。