能源电力系统的低碳转型是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的关键所在。为研判“双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统的未来发展趋势,该文构建了考虑绿电替代与绿氢替代的中长期能源电力发展估算模型,基于模型对2020—2060年我国能源电力发展场景进行测...能源电力系统的低碳转型是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的关键所在。为研判“双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统的未来发展趋势,该文构建了考虑绿电替代与绿氢替代的中长期能源电力发展估算模型,基于模型对2020—2060年我国能源电力发展场景进行测算,分析相关核心指标的演化趋势,并针对绿电绿氢与现有能源系统协同发展的多能互补综合能源发展模式提出方案设想。结果表明,以绿电为主、绿氢为辅对传统化石能源的“双替代”,作为实现“双碳”目标的关键措施,将在新型能源体系和新型电力系统建设中发挥决定性作用,分别针对源端能源生产基地和终端消费区域提出的综合能源生产单元(integrated energy production unit,IEPU)和综合能源产消单元(integrated energy production and consumption unit,IECU)设想,可为促进多类型资源协同优化和高效配置、支撑构建新型能源体系与新型电力系统提供方案参考。展开更多
Coal-fired power is the main power source and the biggest contributor to energy conservation in the past several decades in China.It is generally believed that advanced technology should be counted on for energy conse...Coal-fired power is the main power source and the biggest contributor to energy conservation in the past several decades in China.It is generally believed that advanced technology should be counted on for energy conservation.However,a review of the decline in the national average net coal consumption rate(NCCR)of China's coal-fired power industry along with its development over the past few decades indicates that the upgradation of the national unit capacity structure(including installing advanced production and phasing out backward production)plays a more important role.A quantitative study on the effect of the unit capacity structure upgradation on the decline in the national average NCCR suggests that phasing out backward production is the leading factor for the decline in the NCCR in the past decade,followed by the new installation,whose sum contributes to approximately 80%of the decline in the national average NCCR.The new installation has an effective affecting period of about 8 years,during which it would gradually decline from a relatively high value.Since the effect of phasing out backward production may remain at a certain degree given a continual action of phasing out backward capacity,it is suggested that the organized action of phasing out backward production should be insisted on.展开更多
文摘能源电力系统的低碳转型是实现碳达峰碳中和目标的关键所在。为研判“双碳”目标下我国能源电力系统的未来发展趋势,该文构建了考虑绿电替代与绿氢替代的中长期能源电力发展估算模型,基于模型对2020—2060年我国能源电力发展场景进行测算,分析相关核心指标的演化趋势,并针对绿电绿氢与现有能源系统协同发展的多能互补综合能源发展模式提出方案设想。结果表明,以绿电为主、绿氢为辅对传统化石能源的“双替代”,作为实现“双碳”目标的关键措施,将在新型能源体系和新型电力系统建设中发挥决定性作用,分别针对源端能源生产基地和终端消费区域提出的综合能源生产单元(integrated energy production unit,IEPU)和综合能源产消单元(integrated energy production and consumption unit,IECU)设想,可为促进多类型资源协同优化和高效配置、支撑构建新型能源体系与新型电力系统提供方案参考。
基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2017M620758)Special Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.L1522032)the Consulting Project of Chinese Academy of Engineering(No.2015-ZCQ-06).
文摘Coal-fired power is the main power source and the biggest contributor to energy conservation in the past several decades in China.It is generally believed that advanced technology should be counted on for energy conservation.However,a review of the decline in the national average net coal consumption rate(NCCR)of China's coal-fired power industry along with its development over the past few decades indicates that the upgradation of the national unit capacity structure(including installing advanced production and phasing out backward production)plays a more important role.A quantitative study on the effect of the unit capacity structure upgradation on the decline in the national average NCCR suggests that phasing out backward production is the leading factor for the decline in the NCCR in the past decade,followed by the new installation,whose sum contributes to approximately 80%of the decline in the national average NCCR.The new installation has an effective affecting period of about 8 years,during which it would gradually decline from a relatively high value.Since the effect of phasing out backward production may remain at a certain degree given a continual action of phasing out backward capacity,it is suggested that the organized action of phasing out backward production should be insisted on.
