With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important...With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.展开更多
The variation of the flux of energetic electrons in the magnetosphere has been proven to be strongly related to the solar wind speed. Observations of GEO orbit show that the flux of low-energy electrons is not only mo...The variation of the flux of energetic electrons in the magnetosphere has been proven to be strongly related to the solar wind speed. Observations of GEO orbit show that the flux of low-energy electrons is not only modulated by the solar wind speed, but, if a time delay is added, is also positively correlated to the flux of high-energy electrons. This feature provides a possible method to forecast the flux of high-energy electrons in GEO orbit. In this study, the correlations of the fluxes between the high-energy electrons and low-middle-energy electrons obtained at different L values and in different orbits are investigated to develop the application of this feature. Based on the analysis of long–term data observed by NOAA POES and GOES, the correlations between the fluxes of high-energy electrons and low–middle–energy electrons are good enough at different L values and in different orbits in quiet time, but this correlation is strongly affected by CME–driven geomagnetic storms.展开更多
基金the National Social Science Funds of China (13&ZD159)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71303258, 71373285)+1 种基金MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (13YJC630148)Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing (ZX20150130) for sponsoring this joint research
文摘With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41374167,41074117&41374166)
文摘The variation of the flux of energetic electrons in the magnetosphere has been proven to be strongly related to the solar wind speed. Observations of GEO orbit show that the flux of low-energy electrons is not only modulated by the solar wind speed, but, if a time delay is added, is also positively correlated to the flux of high-energy electrons. This feature provides a possible method to forecast the flux of high-energy electrons in GEO orbit. In this study, the correlations of the fluxes between the high-energy electrons and low-middle-energy electrons obtained at different L values and in different orbits are investigated to develop the application of this feature. Based on the analysis of long–term data observed by NOAA POES and GOES, the correlations between the fluxes of high-energy electrons and low–middle–energy electrons are good enough at different L values and in different orbits in quiet time, but this correlation is strongly affected by CME–driven geomagnetic storms.
