Tackling climate change and promoting the energy revolution

Following the Paris Agreement, green and low-carbon development has entered into a new stage. China＇s international responsibility to combat climate change is consistent with the inherent sustainable devel- opment needs of the country. In this paper, the reason- ability of China＇s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions （INDC） is examined and the fact that low- carbon development can lead to modernization is demon- strated based on data analysis of energy economics from developed countries. Considering the fact that such an energy revolution forms the basis for China＇s low-carbon transition, a roadmap of the China＇s energy utilization is presented. Based on research results from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, the three historical stages of China＇s energy structure reform are analyzed. Promoting a low-carbon transition through an energy revolution is a long-term and arduous process that requires a genuine transformation of development outlook and patterns. By empirically analyzing situations at home and abroad, a conclusion is made that economic development and a low- carbon transition can be achieved simultaneously; speci- fically, low-carbon development fosters new points of economic growth and gives rise to different development paths.

Global energy transition revolution and the connotation and pathway of the green and intelligent energy system

The essence of energy system transition is the"energy revolution':The development of the"resource-dominated"energy system with fossil energy as the mainstay has promoted human progress,but it has also triggered energy crisis and ecological environment crisis,which is not compatible with the new demands of the new round of scientific and technological revolution,industrial transformation,and sustainable human development.It is in urgent need to research and develop a new-type energy system in the context of carbon neutrality.In the framework of"technique-dominated"new green and intelligent energy system with"three new"of new energy,new power and new energy storage as the mainstay,the"super energy basin"concepts with the Ordos Basin,Nw China as a representative will reshape the concept and model of future energy exploration and development.In view of the"six inequalities"in global energy and the resource conditions of"abundant coal,insufficient oil and gas and infinite new energy"in China,it is suggested to deeply boost"China energy revolution',sticking to the six principles of independent energy production,green energy supply,secure energy reserve,efficient energy consumption,intelligent energy management,economical energy cost;enhance"energy scientific and technological innovation"by implementing technique-dominated"four major science and technology innovation projects',namely,clean coal project,oil production stabilization and gas production increasing project,new energy acceleration project,and green-intelligent energy project;implement"energy transition"by accelerating the green-dominated"four-modernization development',namely,fossil energy cleaning,large-scale new energy,coordinated centralized energy distribution,intelligent multi-energy management,so as to promote the exchange of two 80%s"in China's energy structure and construct the new green and intelligent energy system.

The Goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and China's New Energy Revolution

Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions,the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons,the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation.With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix,while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly.Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China.Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring,the rising manufacturing costs,the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations,the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network,and the supply risks of key metals,while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment,lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation.China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies,accelerate economic and energy restructuring,strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects,and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.

China's INDC and non-fossil energy development

Global climate change promotes the energy system reform. Achieving a high proportion of renewable energy becomes the major countries＇ energy strategy. As proposed in its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions （INDC）, China intends to raise the proportion of non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption to about 20% by 2030. That ambitious goal means the non-fossil energy supplies by 2030 will be 7-8 times that of 2005, and the annual increase rate is more than 8% within the 25 years. Besides, the capacity of wind power, solar power, hy- dropower and nuclear power reaches 400 GW, 350 GW, 450 GW, and 150 GW respectively, and China＇s non-fossil power capacity is even greater than the U.S.＇s total power capacity. In addition, the scale of natural gas increases. Consequently, by 2030, the proportion of coal falls from the current 70% to below 50%, and the CO2 intensity of energy consumption decreases by 20% compared with the level of 2005, which play important roles in significantly reducing the CO2 intensity of GDE Since China has confirmed to achieve the CO2 emissions peak around 2030, at that time, the newly added energy demand will be satisfied by non-fossil energy, and the consumption of fossil fuel will stop growing. By 2030, non-fossil energy accounts for 20%, and the large scale and sound momentum of new and renewable energy industry will support the growth of total energy demand, which plays a key role in CO2 emissions peaking and beginning to decline, and lays the foundation for establishing a new energy system dominated by new and renewable energy in the second half of the 21 st century as well as finally achieving the CO2 zero-emission.

On the connotation, challenge and significance of China’s “energy independence” strategy

The world’s energy is in the "third major transformation period" from fossil energy to new energy, and all countries in the world have formulated energy development strategies. Through advanced deployment, the United States is about to achieve "energy independence" relying on "unconventional oil and gas revolution". China’s energy development is faced with four challenges:(1) The population base and economic development scale determine the "totally huge amount" of energy consumption;(2) the "coal rich but oil and gas insufficient" resource structure determines the "unclean" energy consuming structure;(3) the increasing dependence on imported oil and gas determines the "unsafe" energy supply;and(4) the unconventional oil and gas endowment makes it impossible to achieve energy independence by copying the American model. From the perspective of the world energy trend and the unique situation of China’s energy, we put forward a "three-step" strategy for China to achieve "energy independence": From 2020 to 2035, "energy supply security" will be addressed by "cleaning coal, stabilizing oil and gas production and vigorously developing new alternative energy";from 2035 to 2050, the vision of "production independence" will be realized by relying on "domestic production and overseas oil and gas mining rights";from 2050 to 2100, "intelligent energy and new energy" will help China realize "energy independence". The two important signs of China’s "energy independence" are that domestic production accounts for more than 90% of the domestic consumption and clean energy production accounts for more than 70%, and energy security realizes "independence and self-control" and "long-term security". The strategic significance of "energy independence" is to ensure national energy security, drive the development of relevant major industries, achieve energy management reform, and implement the environmental protection goal of zero carbon emissions. The "energy independence" of China is a strategic mission, it might be fulfilled in the future with the growth of the state’s power, even when the domestic energy production does not catch up with the domestic consumption. Perhaps the world’s new technological revolution will exceed expectations, and China’s "energy independence" dream will eventually come true.

Energy Internet Promotes the Reform and Development of Natural Gas Industry

Not only being abundant in resources, natural gas also helps power grids consume wind energy, solar energy and etc. The promotion of natu ral gas is an essential zoay to facilitate the development of nezo energy and complete the transition to an energy system where the renewable energy is dominant. The operation of energy Internet with a concept of equal, open, cooperative and sharing, and the optimization of a combined energy of gas, electricity, heating and cooling, could significantly improve the energy efficiency. Meanwhile, the development of energy lnternet technology will subvert the existing division of energy industry, and generate new commercial formats with features of highly openness. It will also subvert some existing market rules, change the governance methods, generate renovations in organizations, business models and government management methods, thus requires further revolution in energy industry. In order to promote the rapid and healthy development of ＂lnternet plus＂ natural gas industry, a series of policies and precautions are needed to be inhvduced and improved.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Global low-carbon transition and China's response strategies

The Paris Agreement establishes a new mechanism for post-2020 global climate governance, and sets long-term goals for global response to climate change, which will accelerate worldwide low-carbon transformation of economic development pattern, promote the revolutionary reform of energy system, boost a fundamental change in the mode of social production and consumption, and further the civilization of human society from industrial civilization to eco-civilization. The urgency of global low-carbon transition will reshape the competition situation of world's economy, trade and technology. Taking the construction of eco-civilization as a guide, China explores green and low-carbon development paths,establishes ambitious intended nationally determined contribution(INDC) targets and action plans, advances energy production and consumption revolution, and speeds up the transformation of economic development pattern. These strategies and actions not only confirm to the trend of the world low-carbon transition, but also meet the intrinsic requirements for easing the domestic resources and environment constraints and realizing sustainable development. They are multi-win-win strategies for promotion of economic development and environmental protection and mitigation of carbon emissions. China should take the global long-term emission reduction targets as a guide, and formulate medium and long-term low-carbon development strategy, build the core competitiveness of low-carbon advanced technology and development pattern, and take an in-depth part in global governance so as to reflect the responsibility of China as a great power in constructing a community of common destiny for all mankind and addressing global ecological crisis.

Approach for natural gas to be a primary energy source in China

This work reveals the positioning of natural gas in the evolution of world energy and the general law of its development.In the long-term adjustment of energy structure,natural gas has gradually become the primary energy source because of five factors:policy,resources,technology,facilities,and market.To expedite the revolution of energy production and consumption,China must urgently expand the use of natural gas toward a more positive role in complementing coal and renewable energy and prioritize its usage in three areas,namely,urban gas,power generation,and industrial fuel.Natural gas is expected to account for approximately 15%of China’s total energy consumption in the future.For natural gas to be the primary energy,the exploitation of gas resources must be expanded,resource access must be improved,a flexible trade system must be set up,infrastructure investment must be increased,and the security system must be enhanced.

Pathway to energy technical innovation and commercialization based on Internet plus DES

The distributed energy system （DES） is a type of energy cascade utilization on the client side or close to the client, and it has become an important option of global energy transformation. In China, based on the experience of demonstration projects, the DES is now being commercialized. Under the new opportunity of energy production and consumption promoted by the national ＂Internet Plus＂ action plan, the development of the DES was reviewed in this paper; four categories of market demand and five key issues for DES deployment were analyzed; five types of potential DES users and five key points of technical path implementation proposed based on many years of engineering practices and hundreds of project case studies were proposed. 4E elements should be used to evaluate and choose the project and lead the innovation model of DES by energy production and consumption revolution with the sustainable development of the Intemet plus DES. The future innovation models include intelligent energy modularity and menu-type services with the demands of the client side, and the kind of new thinking for DES services that ＂you are in charge of your own energy production and consumption, while we are also at service when needed for installation and maintenance.＂ The aim of innovation mode is to give the energy sovereign back to the people, and form a perfect Intemet plus DES ecosystem.

Situation and measures of China＇s CO2 emission mitigation after the Paris Agreement

Global response to climate change has entered the phase of full implementation of the Paris Agreement. To control the global temperature rise below 2℃, all countries must make more efforts to reduce emission. China has combined its goal of emission reduction for combating climate change with its domestic sustainable development strategy to promote energy revolution and the transition of economic development to low-carbon pat- terns. Through reinforcing the commitment and action before 2020, the CO2 intensity of GDP can decrease by more than 50% by 2020 compared with that of 2005, and the external commitment target of a 40%-45% decrease can be over fulfilled. Currently, under the new economic normal, China further strengthens the policy measure, vigorously saves energy, enhances energy use efficiency and the economic output benefit, and simultaneously develops new and renewable energy and accelerates energy structural decarbonization, so that the annual decrease rate of the CO2 intensity of GDP keeps a high level of more than 4% and remains increasing. Thus, the decrease rate of the CO2 intensity of GDP will exceed the GDP growth rate, and then CO2 emission will peak around 2030. This will promote the fundamental turning of economic development mode, and lay a foundation for the establishment of a sustainable energy system with near- zero emissions and with new and renewable energy as the main body in the second half of this century. China implements the concept of green low-carbon development and accelerates the low carbon transition of energy and economy to achieve win-win results in economic growth and CO2 emission mitigation, and these policies and actions will also provide experiences for many other developing countries. On the other hand, China will continue to play a positive and constructive leading role in the implementation of the Paris Agreement internationally, and promote the construction of new mechanisms of win- win cooperation, fairness and justice and common development for global climate governance. Moreover, China will make an effort to build a community of common destiny for mankind, promote pragmatic coopera- tion among countries, especially among developing countries, and take combating climate change as a new development opportunity for jointly moving toward climate-friendly low-carbon economic development path.