Urban Air Quality Plans and Integrated Assessment Methodologies

The air quality directive （2008/50/EC （of the European Parliament and of the Council of 21 May 2008）） requires European Member States to design appropriate AQPs （air quality plans） for zones and agglomerations where the air quality does not comply with the limit values and to assess possible emission reduction measures to decrease concentration levels. The Portuguese agglomeration of Porto Litoral is one of the several European Union urban areas that had to develop and implement AQPs to reduce particulate matter （PM10）. The AQPs were initially designed based on a scenario approach and using an air quality model, which was applied over the study region for the reference situation with the current PM10 emissions, and for a reduction scenario with PM10 emissions re-estimated considering the implementation of abatement measures. Aiming to cost-efficiently optimize Porto Litoral PM10 abatement measures, the assessment procedure was repeated using an optimization approach based on the RIAT ＋ （regional integrated assessment tool ＋）. Porto Litoral urban area＇s technical and non-technical measures were characterized （including associated costs） and, through the application of the air quality model to 20 emissions abatement scenarios, S-R （source-receptor） relationships were created. This paper comparatively describes the air quality plans designed to improve PM10 levels in the Porto Litoral agglomeration based on both the scenario analysis and the optimization approach.

Smoke Hazard Assessment Model Based on Fire Dynamics Simulator and FED Model

Smoke is the main cause of fire death. In order to minimize the potential danger of smoke hazard, a rational VR based fire training simulator should fully consider all aspects of smoke hazard. In the simulator, the visualization of data based on FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) and FED fire dynamic data and volume rendering is further optimized, which can be effectively and quickly applied to virtual fire protection. In addition, a comprehensive smoke hazard assessment model based on FED and FED is established to assess the IHD value of different paths, which represents the safety of different paths, and can be used for evacuation or rescue in virtual training. Taking the case of campus fire drill as an experiment, the research shows the accuracy and effectiveness of smoke assessment based on FDS and FED model. The road force with the highest safety can be selected through the comprehensive model. So the assessment model is proved to be valuable.

Regional Climate Damage Quantification and Its Impacts on Future Emission Pathways Using the RICE Model

This study quantified the regional damages resulting from temperature and sea level changes using the Regional Integrated of Climate and Economy(RICE)model,as well as the effects of enabling and disabling the climate impact module on future emission pathways.Results highlight varied damages depending on regional economic development and locations.Specifically,China and Africa could suffer the most serious comprehensive damages caused by temperature change and sea level rise,followed by India,other developing Asian countries(OthAsia),and other high-income countries(OHI).The comprehensive damage fractions for China and Africa are projected to be 15.1%and 12.5%of gross domestic product(GDP)in 2195,with corresponding cumulative damages of 124.0 trillion and 87.3 trillion United States dollars(USD)from 2005 to 2195,respectively.Meanwhile,the comprehensive damage fractions in Japan,Eurasia,and Russia are smaller and projected to be lower than 5.6%of GDP in 2195,with cumulative damages of 6.8 trillion,4.2 trillion,and 3.3 trillion USD,respectively.Additionally,coastal regions like Africa,the European Union(EU),and OHI show comparable damages for sea level rise and temperature change.In China,however,sea level-induced damages are projected to exceed those from temperature changes.Moreover,this study indicates that switching the damage modules on or off affects the regional and global emission trajectories,but the magnitude is relatively small.By 2195,global emissions under the experiments with all of the damage modules switched off,only the sea level damage module switched on,and only the temperature damage module switched on,were 3.5%,2.3%and 1.2%higher than those with all of the damage modules switched on,respectively.

Assessment of climate damage in China based on integrated assessment framework

Developing a localized and consistent model framework for climate loss and damage assessment is crucial for the policy-making of climate change mitigation and adaptation.This study introduces a comprehensive,multidisciplinary Integrated Assessment Model(IAM)framework for evaluating climate damage in China,utilizing BCC-SESM climate model and FUND sectoral climate damage model under the SSP2-RCPs scenario.Employing a bottom-up approach,the research estimates climate damage across eight major sectors,recalibrates sectoral climate damage functions and parameters for China,and elucidates distinctions among direct climate loss,market climate loss,and aggregate climate loss.The findings reveal that the total climate damage function for China follows a quadratic pattern in response to temperature rise.By 2050,the estimated climate damage is projected to be 5.4%,5.7%,and 8.2%of GDP under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,respectively.Additionally,both direct and market climate losses are projected to remain below 2%of GDP by 2050,while the aggregate climate loss could reach as high as 8.2%,which is predominantly attributed to non-market sectors.From a sectoral perspective,under the RCP8.5 scenario,human health damage constitutes the largest share(61.9%)of the total climate loss by 2050,followed by sea-level rise damage(18.6%).This study sheds lights on the adaptation policy that should attach importance to the non-market sectors,particularly focusing on human health and sea-level rise.

Integrated Model for Resilience Evaluation of Power-Gas Systems Under Windstorms

Integrated power-gas systems(IPGS)have developed critical infrastructure in integrated energy systems.Moreover,various extreme weather events with low probability and high risk have seriously affected the stable operation of IPGSs.Due to close interconnectedness through coupling elements between the power system(PS)and natural gas system(NGS)when a disturbance happens in one system,a series of complicated sequences of dependent events may follow in another system.Especially under extreme conditions,this coupling can lead to a dramatic degradation of system performance,resulting in catastrophic failures.Therefore,there is an urgent need to model and evaluate resilience of IPGSs under extreme weather.Following this development trend,an integrated model for resilience evaluation of IPGS is proposed under extreme weather events focusing on windstorms.First,a framework of IPGS is proposed to describe states of the system at different stages under disaster conditions.Furthermore,an evaluation model considering cascading effects is used to quantify the impact of windstorms on NGS and PS.Meanwhile,a Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)technique is utilized to characterize chaotic fault of components.Moreover,time-dependent nodal and system resilience indices for IPGS are proposed to display impacts of windstorms.Numerical results on the IPGS test system demonstrate the proposed methods.

Operational Risk Assessment for Integrated Transmission and Distribution Networks

To satisfy the requirements of accurate operationalrisk assessment of integrated transmission and distribution networks (I-T&D), an integrated operational risk assessment (IORA) algorithm is proposed. Specific cases demonstrate thatan I-ORA is necessary because it provides accurate handlingof the coupling between transmission and distribution networks,accurate analysis of power supply mode (PSM) changes ofimportant users and helps to improve security and stability ofpower grid operations. Two key technical requirements in theI-ORA algorithm are realized, i.e., integrated topology analysisand integrated power flow calculation. Under a certain contingency, integrated topology analysis is used to assess the risksof substation power cuts, network split and PSM changes ofimportant users, while the integrated power flow calculation,based on the self-adaptive Levenburg-Marquard method andNewton method, can be implemented to assess risks of heavyload/overload and voltage deviation. In addition, the graphicsprocessing unit is used to parallelly process some computationintensive steps. Numerical experiments show that the proposedI-ORA algorithm can realize accurate assessment for the entireI-T&D. In addition, the efficiency and convergence are satisfying,indicating the proposed I-ORA algorithm can significantly benefitreal practice in the coordination operation of I-T&D in the future.

Turkey Creek—A Case Study of Ecohydrology and Integrated Watershed Management in the Low-Gradient Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA

Water yield, water supply and quality, wildlife habitat, and ecosystem productivity and services are important societal concerns for natural resource management in the 21st century. Watershed-scale ecohydrologic studies can provide needed context for addressing complex spatial and temporal dynamics of these functions and services. This study was conducted on the 5240 ha Turkey Creek watershed (WS 78) draining a 3rd order stream on the Santee Experimental Forest within the South Carolina Atlantic Coastal Plain, USA. The study objectives were to present the hydrologic characteristics of this relatively undisturbed, except by a hurricane (Hugo, 1989), forested water-shed and to discuss key elements for watershed management, including water resource assessment (WRM), modeling integrated water resources management, environmental assessment, land use planning, social impact assessment, and information management. Runoff coefficients, flow duration curves, flood and low flow frequency curves, surface and ground water yields were assessed as elements of the WRM. Results from the last 10 years of interdisciplinary studies have also advanced the understanding of coastal ecohydrologic characteristics and processes, water balance, and their modeling including the need of high resolution LiDAR data. For example, surface water dynamics were shown to be regulated primarily by the water table, dependent upon pre- cipitation and evapotranspiration (ET). Analysis of pre- and post-Hugo streamflow data showed somewhat lower but insignificant (α = 0.05) mean annual flow but increased frequency of larger flows for the post-Hugo compared with the pre-Hugo level. However, there was no significant difference in mean annual ET, potentially indicating the resiliency of this coastal forest. Although the information from this study may be useful for comparison of coastal ecohydrologic issues, it is becoming increasingly clear that multi-site studies may be warranted to understand these complex systems in the face of climate change, sea level rise, and increasing development in coastal regions.

基于PSR模型的城市河流湿地生态健康评价——以苏州市姑苏区为例

城市河流湿地的生态健康是城市生态可持续的重要基础。本研究以苏州市姑苏区河流湿地为研究对象,运用层次分析法与模糊综合评价法评价其河流湿地健康状况。结果表明:苏州市姑苏区河流湿地的生态健康状况处于“中等”等级,接近“亚健康”状态;准则层的排序权重为状态层指标>压力层指标>响应层指标,说明状态层指标能直观反映河流湿地的健康状态,其状态层的综合健康指数为0.658;各河段健康状态与其所对应的城市流域所承受的压力存在着密切联系,城市的建设强度和植被覆盖率因素对姑苏区河流湿地的健康状态具有显著影响。

基于“项目驱动”的养羊学课程教学改革与实践

养羊学是一门面向动物科学专业学生的专业课,旨在培养符合现代养羊业发展需要的“强农兴农”人才。针对课程存在的教学模式陈旧、教学内容与产业脱节与社会建设融入不足等痛点问题,华南农业大学动物科学学院围绕“立德树人”及新农科人才培养理念,以学生发展为中心建立“项目驱动”教学模式。该模式通过实际项目驱动学生主动探索与学习,使学生能够在项目中将理论知识应用于实践,提升综合能力和创新思维。项目驱动教学模式强调产教融合,并深化乡村振兴及生态文明理念融入,提供全面的知识、能力及素养培养支撑。通过改革,养羊学课程对学生综合素质培养的效果显著提升,成效包括近5年指导的本科生发表论文6篇,参加创新创业训练项目5项及创新创业竞赛5项,并有毕业生在养羊业创业。建设产学研平台及实践教学基地5个,促进了校企合作,进一步完善了课程建设。养羊学课程的“项目驱动”教学模式可为动物生产类及与产业衔接较紧密的专业课程的教学提供参考。

城市规划健康影响评估理论框架构建

健康影响评估为预测城市发展、城市规划方案和项目的健康效益提供框架,但在融入我国城市规划中仍面临内容体系不清、技术流程不明、模型体系未建立和工作方法缺失等问题。本文构建了城市规划健康影响评估理论框架,系统性地明确了面向城市规划的健康影响评估内容体系、技术流程、模型体系和工作方法。面向城市规划的健康影响评估可从“健康风险控制影响评估”“健康资源支撑保障评估”和“健康行为促进效益评估”3个方面开展;主要技术流程包括参照对象确定、评估范围界定、评估框架构建、评估方法选取和评估开展5个步骤;模型体系由核心模型、相关模型和外围模型构成;最后,规划编制团队与健康影响评估团队可协作推进健康影响评估“全过程”融入规划。本文可为面向城市规划开展健康影响评估提供基本的理论、方法和机制指导。

CIECIA:A new climate change integrated assessment model and its assessments of global carbon abatement schemes

From the perspective of global economic general equilibrium, this study developed a new climate change IAM named CIECIA. The economic core of this IAM is a multi-country-sector general equilibrium model. The endogenous technology progress mode is introduced into CIECIA. Based on this model, three assessment principles of the global cooperating abatement scheme are proposed, including effectiveness, feasibility, and fairness. This study simulated and analyzed six types of primary global cooperating abatement schemes. The simulated results indicate that all of the selected schemes can satisfy the climate mitigation targets by 2100. Thus, they are all effective schemes. However, the schemes have quite different feasibilities and fairness. The Stern Scheme benefits the developed countries, but is unfair to the developing countries. The Nordhaus Scheme promotes the developments of the developing countries. However, it leads to negative impacts on the interests of the developed countries. The principle of convergence on accumulated carbon emissions per capita and the principle of convergence on carbon emissions per capita benefit the economic developments of the middle and low developing countries most. However, these two types of schemes cause tremendous losses to the main economic entities in the world including China. The Pareto Improvement Scheme, which was developed from the Global Economic Growth Scheme, balances the fairness and feasibility in the carbon abatement process and realizes the Pareto improvement of accumulated utilities in all the participating countries. Thus, the Pareto Improvement Scheme is the most reasonable global cooperating carbon abatement scheme.

山东黄河水文数字孪生关键技术研究及应用

为实现黄河流域防汛“四预”功能,对河道洪水、漫滩演进等过程进行精准的动态化预测预报,构建山东黄河水文数字孪生示范平台,介绍数字孪生构建过程中的多源异构数据融合、水动力学模型构建等关键技术,重点阐述基于流体解算的漫滩仿真和仿真推演方法、三维模拟和动态可视化渲染、洪水演进推演可视化配置等,可动态展示漫滩河段槽蓄量、滩蓄量、淹没趋势等核心数据,自主生成区域洪水灾害影响仿真评估报告。关键技术主要应用于洪水灾害防御业务、水资源优化配置及管理、水利工程全周期管理、河湖保护治理等领域,服务黄河防汛抗旱指挥、河道各级主管等部门,助力新阶段水利高质量发展。

黄河流域水稀缺风险评价

基于黄河流域水稀缺特点及其成因,提出了综合考虑水量､水质和生态需水因素的流域水稀缺风险(WSR)评估框架,以此评估了2017年黄河流域90个地级市42个部门的直接水稀缺风险损失(DWSR),并通过构建城市尺度环境拓展多区域投入产出模型(MRIO),评估了城市间贸易驱动的间接水稀缺风险损失(IWSR).结果表明:流域DWSR和IWSR分别约为28941.49亿元和34464.08亿元,贸易导致的间接经济损失大于直接经济损失;各城市DWSR和IWSR整体上呈现一定的空间差异性,但高风险城市具有明显的空间集聚性和重合性,主要集中在流域中下游的山东､河南两省,如潍坊､淄博､郑州等;IWSR转移主要由各省内的城市间贸易产生,省际间的风险转移没有形成明显的热点区域;农林牧渔业､化学工业､石油加工､炼焦和核燃料加工业等部门的DWSR较高,同时也是主要的IWSR出口部门.建议结合识别出的重点城市､关键部门等全面加强WSR管理,协同推进黄河流域节水控水､水质改善和生态用水保障,促进流域水资源节约集约高效利用.

混合式教学视域下高师院校体育专业课“学评一体化”模型构建研究

本文以网络教学平台为基础,在混合教学模式下构建出高师院校体育专业课“学评一体化”模型,具体表现为:在课堂教学中,重视评价方式的多样化、评价内容的多维化、评价主体的多元化,将线上评价与线下评价相结合,评价贯穿于学生的整个学习过程。通过对学生学习目标达到程度的评价,学生在不同的评价反馈中可以及时地对自己的学习进程进行调整,并根据自身的学习状况,制定出有针对性的学习计划和学习策略,帮助教师及时准确了解学生学习进程、学习情况、学习弱项及学习态度等潜在信息。本文以混合式教学设计和课堂活动为依据,实施了短时有效、学习个性化、数据及时跟进、评价多元的信息化体育教学实践探索,结合学生的学习需要,制定出了针对性的学习与评价内容,可供高校体育专业课教学活动参考。

中国的碳中和: 技术经济路径与政策选择

2020年中国政府向国际社会承诺了2060年实现碳中和的战略目标,这将对我国中长期经济增长模式、能源转型和碳排放路径产生深远的影响.在此背景下,本文构建了技术扩展的能源-经济-环境系统集成模型,综合评估了我国实现2060年碳中和目标的能源技术路径和经济可行性,并给出了相应的政策选择.研究发现了2030年的非化石能源发展目标与碳中和目标的高度一致性,且碳中和要求高排放的“平台期”大幅缩短.单纯的碳价或非化石能源补贴政策均不足以支持碳中和目标的如期达成,而退煤脱油机制下碳价干预与负排放技术的发展激励为这一目标的实现提供了可行的政策选项.碳中和下,太阳能和风能成为能源系统的主力,其合计供能比重需达到53%,其次是水电和装配CCS技术的生物质能,分别占比13.7%和12.5%.研究进一步指出,经济代价不应该成为我国推进碳中和目标达成的主要顾虑,在“对勾”型政策成本轨迹下,预估的累积经济成本不超过相应GDP的1.9%,且在政策目标达成之前即可享受到碳中和带来的经济发展红利.

Application of oblique photogrammetry technique in geological hazard identification and decision management

With the continuous development of the oblique photography technique, it has been used more and more widely in the field of geological disasters. It can quickly obtain the three-dimensional(3D) real scene model of dangerous mountainous areas under the premise of ensuring the safety of personnel while restoring the real geographic information as much as possible. However, geological disaster areas are often accompanied by many adverse factors such as cliffs and dense vegetation. Based on this, the paper introduced the flight line design of oblique photogrammetry, analyzed the multi-platform data fusion processing, studied the multi-period data dynamic evaluation technology and proposed the application methods of data acquisition, early warning, disaster assessment and decision management suitable for geological disaster identification through the analysis of actual cases, which will help geologists to plan and control geological work more scientifically and rationally, improve work efficiency and reduce the potential personnel safety hazards in the process of geological survey, to offer technical support to the application of oblique photogrammetry in geological disaster identification and decision making and provide the scientific basis for personal and property safety protection and later-stage geological disaster management in disaster areas.

现代工业废气排放管理与大气环境质量评估模型的构建

本研究构建了一种现代工业废气排放管理与大气环境质量评估模型。通过收集和分析废气排放数据、监测大气环境质量指标,我们开发了一个综合评估模型,能够有效评估工业废气对大气环境的影响。该模型结合了工业废气排放源的特征参数和大气污染物浓度的测量结果,提供了可行的管理决策和风险评估方法,以减少工业活动对大气环境造成的负面影响。

综合能源网络建模与运维技术研究综述

在当前多种异质能源耦合程度不断加深,清洁能源高比例渗透的背景下,综合能源网络耦合电、气、热、冷等多种能源类型,实现不同能源网络之间的协调规划与互济调控,被认为是促进可再生能源消纳和提高能源利用效率的重要手段之一。首先从综合能源网络的特性分析开始,对其多能流差异特性、天然气网络的管存特性、热力网络的热延迟特性进行重点分析;其次在综合能源网络建模方面,分别介绍3种建模方法:机理分析建模法、数据驱动建模法、统一能路建模法;在综合能源网络状态估计方面,梳理综合能源网络状态估计发展历程以及状态估计主要方法,并对综合能源网络运行可靠性评估的国内外研究现状进行阐述。最后对综合能源网络建模方法与状态估计两方面进行展望,可以为该方向的科研人员提供参考。

基于云模型的船舶综合船桥建造质量风险评估方法

为掌握综合船桥的建造质量风险,提出一种基于云模型的综合评估方法。综合运用云模型发生器、合并云算法、多属性评估方法,解决船舶综合船桥建造质量风险评估过程中定性描述与定量综合计算的问题;以某民用船舶为例,对该船舶综合船桥建造质量风险进行评估。结果表明:该评估模型能融合主、客观信息,为综合船桥的建造质量风险提供一种有效的评估方法。

国内外医养结合模式与效果评估研究进展

随着我国老龄化程度加深,如何发挥医养结合供给能力、扩大服务范围成为急需解决的问题。本文概括了国内医养结合定义和医养结合模式,对比了国外长期照护模式,总结了国内外医养结合模式的差异,同时还对国内外医养结合效果评估进行了探索。最终总结出我国医养结合发展的两大研究方向,一是医养结合模式、路径的改革,二是医养结合评估体系的建立。医养结合模式、路径的改革促进基层医疗体系的改革和分级医疗服务的规划,医养结合评估体系利用衰弱及其不良后果对老年人健康状况进行分层和检测,完成对医养体系的效果评估。