Investment risk evaluation of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO

The investment risk management of the existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO cannot be separated from the scientific risk measurement and evaluation. The investment risk assessment is the basis of investment decision and project implementation. Based on the content analysis and balance of evaluation principle of investment risk evaluation on the existing building energy-saving renovation project, we set up three levels of existing building energy-saving renovation project investment risk evaluation index system, use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the quantitative process, get the scientific assessment of the investment risk of existing building energy-saving renovation project, and support the investment risk response strategy and control measures of existing building energy-saving renovation project for ESCO.

Evaluating soil acidification risk and its effects on biodiversity–ecosystem multifunctionality relationships in the drylands of China

Background:Soil acidifcationn caused by anthropogenic activities may aft soil biochemical cydling,bidiversity,productivity,and multiple eosystem-related functions in drylands.However,to date,such information is lacking to support this hypothesis.Methods Based on a transect survey of 78 naturally assembled shrub communities,we caloulated acid deposition flux in Northwest China and evaluated its likely ecological ffets by testing three altemnative hypotheses,namely:.nidche complementarity,mass ratio,and vegetation quantity hypotheses Rao's quadratic entopy and community-weighted mean traits were employed to represent the complementary aspect of niche complementarity and mass ratio effects,respectively.Resulbs:We observed that in the past four decades,the concentrations of exchangeable base cations in soil in Northwest China have decreased significantly to the extent of having faced the risk of depletion,whereas changes in the calium carbonate content and pH of soil were not significant.Adid deposition primani ly increased the aboweground biomass and shrub density in shrublands but had no sigmificant effect on shrub richness and ecasystem multifunctionality(EMF),indicating that acid deposition had positive but weak ecological effects on dryland ecosystems.Community wd ghted mean of functional traits(representing the mass ratio hypothesis)correlated negatively with EMF,whereas both Rao's quadratic entropy(representing the niche complementarity hypothesis)and aboveground biomass(representing the vegetation quantity hypothesis)correlated positively but insignifcantly with EMF.These biodiversity-EMF relationships highlight the fragility and instability of drylands relative to forest ecasystems.Concuions:The findings from this study serve as important reference points to understand the ris of soil acidification in arid regions and its impacts on biodiversity-EMF relationships.

An adjusted energy-saving quantity calculation method for building energy-efficient retrofit

Aiming at a comprehensive assessment of energy-saving retrofitting effect on existing buildings,a calculation method is developed to adjust energy-saving quantity in standard condition for comparison under the same conditions. A mathematical model,method theory and calculation steps are given. Error analysis results show that this method can be applied accurately to practical engineering projects. In a case study of energy-saving quantity assessment before and after retrofitting on a certain hospital in Shanghai,with energy simulation software TRNSYS,detailed application of this method is introduced and analyzed. The method is applied to the case of energy-saving quantity assessment to a hospital in Shanghai before and after retrofitting with the energy simulation software TRNSYS.

国内外危险货物道路运输标准对比分析及启示

危险货物种类繁多,用途广泛。道路与运输过程中一旦发生危险货物运输事故,后果往往非常严重。因此,危险货物道路运输作为安全生产重点领域之一,其高质量发展一直受到高度关注。本文通过深入研究《危险货物国际道路运输公约》、相关国内外标准,对危险货物豁免要求、安保防范要求、包装测试和使用要求,以及常压危险货物可移动罐柜测试和使用要求等进行了对比分析,探讨了相关国际规则和国际标准在我国的适用性。本研究为我国制定强制性国家标准《危险货物道路运输规则》提供了一定的参考依据,有助于促进我国危险货物道路运输安全管理水平的提升。

基于ICP-MS法测定参苓白术丸中重金属多元素含量及其健康风险评估

目的对参苓白术丸中五种重金属元素进行含量测定并对其评估健康风险。方法对36批参苓白术丸进行微波消解,基于ICP-MS法测定五种元素(Pb、Cd、As、Hg、Cu)的含量,结合理论限度值并采用靶标危害指数法对参苓白术丸中重金属及有害元素健康风险进行评估。结果各元素线性关系良好,且平均回收率在90.2%~101.0%之间,精密度和重复性的RSD值均小于3%。36批样品有5批Hg元素超标,均来自同一家企业,致使THQ值大于1。结论该方法准确稳定,重复性好,可用于参苓白术丸的质量控制,该健康风险评价模式可应用于参苓白术丸的风险评估。

基于GIS信息量法的地质灾害易发性评价——以榆林市吴堡县为例

在吴堡县地质灾害野外调查的基础上,针对吴堡县地质灾害,选取坡度、坡高、坡型、坡向和斜坡地质结构类型作为评价指标,基于ArcGIS平台进行易发性评价。根据评价结果,可将吴堡县划分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区5个等级,分布面积分别为35.78km2、65.58km2、198.88km2、104.72km2、15.89km2,并结合野外调查数据对评级结果进行验证,准确度较好。其评价结果可以为吴堡县乡村建设提供科学的地质依据,减少地质灾害造成的人员和经济财产的损失。

Numerical simulation to determine the gas explosion risk in longwall goaf areas:A case study of Xutuan Colliery

Underground gassy longwall mining goafs may suffer potential gas explosions during the mining process because of the irregularity of gas emissions in the goaf and poor ventilation of the working face,which are risks difficult to control.In this work,the 3235 working face of the Xutuan Colliery in Suzhou City,China,was researched as a case study.The effects of air quantity and gas emission on the three-dimensional distribution of oxygen and methane concentration in the longwall goaf were studied.Based on the revised Coward’s triangle and linear coupling region formula,the coupled methane-oxygen explosive hazard zones(CEHZs)were drawn.Furthermore,a simple practical index was proposed to quantitatively determine the gas explosion risk in the longwall goaf.The results showed that the CEHZs mainly focus on the intake side where the risk of gas explosion is greatest.The CEHZ is reduced with increasing air quantity.Moreover,the higher the gas emission,the larger the CEHZ,which moves towards the intake side at low goaf heights and shifts to the deeper parts of the goaf at high heights.In addition,the risk of gas explosion is reduced as air quantities increase,but when gas emissions increase to a higher level(greater than 50 m3/min),the volume of the CEHZ does not decrease with the increase of air quantity,and the risk of gas explosion no longer shows a linear downward trend.This study is of significance as it seeks to reduce gas explosion accidents and improve mine production safety.

Research on the risk-based model for regional emergency resource allocation for ship-source oil spill

The key point for rational allocation of emergency resources is to match the oil spill response capacity with the risk of oil spill. This paper proposes an innovative risk-based model for quantitative regional emergency resource allocation, which comprehensively analyzes the factors such as oil spill probability, hazard consequences, oil properties, weathering process and operation efficiency, etc. The model calculates three major resources, i.e., mechanical recovery, dispersion and absorption, according to the results of risk assessment. In a field application in Xiaohu Port, Guangzhou, China, and the model achieved scientific and rational allocation of emergency resources by matching the assessed risk with the regional capacity, and allocating emergency resources according to capability target. The model is considered to be beneficial to enhancing the resource efficiency and may contribute to the planning of capacity-building programs in high-risk areas.

Study on the Improvement of Performance of Global Supply Chain Based on Quantity Flexibility Revenue Sharing Contract

The main propose of this study is to manage the demand risk and the exchange rate risk at the same time. Based on a two-echelon decentralized global supply chain,combined with the model equilibrium,this paper studies the difference between the quantity flexibility contract and the revenue sharing contract. By the transmitting of exchange rate risk,it discusses the node-enterprises' optimal strategies. Hence,it designs a quantity-flexibility-revenue-sharing contract to improve the performance of this global supply chain. The result shows that both the quantity flexibility contract and the revenue sharing contract cause the exchange rate risk to transfer from one enterprise to the other; the exchange rate risk will have different impact on the quantity flexibility contract and the revenue sharing contract because of the difference in the transfer payments at the end of the sales season; by designing a hedging strategy with these two different transfer payments,the quantity-flexibility-revenue-sharing contract can manage the demand risk and the exchange rate risk at the same time.

地质灾害风险评估在国土空间规划中的应用——以陕北榆林高西沟为例

榆林市米脂县高西沟村位于黄土高原丘陵沟壑区,属于地质灾害多发区,因此,考虑地质灾害风险的国土空间规划具有极其重要的意义。笔者基于地质灾害调查数据,选取坡度、坡向、地质灾害发育密度等评价指标,采用信息量模型以斜坡单元进行危险性评价,在此基础上叠加承灾体易损性进行定量风险评价,划定地质灾害风险分区。利用ArcGIS将地质灾害风险区划与现状功能区叠加,将高西沟重构为4个国土空间分区:地质灾害中风险-生活居住区、地质灾害低风险-生态功能区、地质灾害低风险-农业生产区和沟谷区,并提出国土空间优化策略。

城镇建成区内涝和非点源污染联合风险评价方法

城镇建成区普遍面临内涝和非点源污染的问题,且二者均与降雨径流过程关系密切,形成风险叠加。为系统评价城镇建成区的内涝和非点源污染风险,基于建立的水量-水质联合风险评价指标、Copula联合分布函数和SWMM-InfoWorks ICM耦合模型,提出水量-水质联合风险评价方法,以北京某高校为研究区,对2种灰绿情境进行对比分析。结果表明:与基准情境相比,建成区在改造情境下内涝控制弹性、径流控制弹性和水质控制弹性平均值分别从0.55、0.90和0.76提升到0.63、0.95和0.80,风险程度下降但仍存在内涝和水质超标情况;两情境下水质弹性值概率密度分布均存在极值点,造成这一极值点的主要原因是对于悬浮物控制能力的降低;多场次降雨事件中,水量和水质高-低风险边界事件重现期分别由2.21 a和1.60 a提升至4.59 a和1.81 a,风险概率降低;灰绿改造后水量控制能力升高而水质控制能力下降,表明水量-水质联合调控至关重要。

广东省南雄市地质灾害风险性评价

本文以广东省南雄市为研究区,基于近10年全市199个地质灾害点样本数据,选取坡度、坡形、高程、坡向、土层厚度、灾点与距居民区距离等6个静态的基础地质条件影响因子,降雨量强度作为诱发因子,综合考虑承灾体特征及易损性情况,基于灾害系统学原理的风险评估模型,开展风险性评估。对地质灾害风险性的方法与技术的研究,能够为该区的灾害防治和经济建设提供技术参考。

基于斜坡单元尺度AHP-信息量模型的重点区域地质灾害风险评价——以贵州省紫云县中部重点区为例

以紫云县重点区域为例,通过划分斜坡单元作为评价单元,运用AHP-信息量模型,结合GIS分析建立了基于斜坡单元尺度的重点区域地质灾害风险评价体系。通过选取符合区域孕灾地质条件及地质灾害形成机理的坡度、坡高、地层、斜坡结构、河流距离、构造距离、降雨、人类工程活动等评价因子对重点区域进行地质灾害危险性评价,最后通过叠加易损性评价结果形成不同降雨频率下的地质灾害风险评价成果。基于斜坡单元尺度AHP-信息量模型的地质灾害风险评价相较栅格法和传统信息量法,避免了夸大平坝区及无人区地质灾害风险等级的不合理结果,其充分考虑了评价因子在评价体系中的重要程度及影响情况,且增加了相似孕灾条件下的地质灾害样本以确定信息量值,经验证评价结果准确可靠,同时其成果能做到以斜坡为单元开展地质灾害精准防治。

江西省水资源量质耦合承载力评价及提升对策

为了合理评价和提升江西省水资源承载能力,耦合风险矩阵评价和政策情景模拟方法,从水资源数量和水资源质量双重角度,对江西省2015~2019年的水资源承载力进行评价,并从用水效率和用水结构两个方面进行情景模拟,探讨了江西省水资源承载力提升路径。研究结果表明:2019年江西省水资源承载压力较大,11个地市中有7个地市的水资源承载状况为临界状态或者超载状态,并呈现西北部最高、南部次之、东北部最低的空间分布特征;江西省用水效率在长江经济带中较低,若提高至长江经济带低用水效率水平,则可将水资源承载力处于临界状态或者超载状态的地市降为2个;江西省农业用水占比处于长江经济带第二高位,若提高用水结构均衡度,降低农业用水量占比,水资源承载力处于临界状态或者超载状态的地市也可降为2个。研究成果可为提高江西省水资源承载力提供一种实现路径,对促进江西省水资源空间均衡和区域经济社会高质量发展具有一定现实意义。

“交通运输肇事后逃逸”的法教义学解释与司法适用——“避免风险扩大化义务”的提倡

对交通运输肇事后逃逸规定的理解,应将其认定为行为人逃避防止风险扩大化义务,具体包括两个方面:一是逃避防止被害人自身风险扩大化的义务;二是逃避防止公共交通安全风险扩大化的义务。判断行为人是否实施逃逸行为,在客观方面,应以结果为导向进行风险扩大化判断;在主观方面,明确逃逸是在“逃避法律责任”主观心理支配下实施的行为,将“逃避法律追究”理解成“为了逃避法律赋予的义务”,并不违背罪刑法定原则,但不宜将“逃避法律责任”与“逃跑”相混淆。司法实践中会出现义务冲突与罪数判断的困境,解决义务冲突的困境,需通过履行义务手段合理性和履行义务紧迫性进行系统分析;而在罪数判断的过程中,应提倡“结果加重犯”的观点。

工程量清单模式下的工程造价管理风险及管理措施

基于工程量清单模式的特征,文章对工程量清单模式下的造价管理工作潜在的风险因素进行了分析,主要包括计量不准确、不能有效反应市场定价以及合同管理方面的问题,提出了具有针对性的处理措施。相关部门可以通过明确风险管控目标、强化合同管理以及实施全程化造价管控的方式对相关问题进行优化。

基于保护层分析法构建“量锁式”风险分级管控与隐患排查治理双重预防机制模型与应用

为提高企业安全管理水平,最大程度上减少人的不安全行为及物的不安全状态,并积极响应国家推动建立安全风险管控和隐患排查治理双重预防机制的政策,结合企业生产现状,创新构建“量锁式”双重预防机制,针对生产区域的设备、作业、岗位进行风险辨识,并进行固有风险评估和定级,通过安全措施实现固有风险降级,确保残余风险处于一般及以下范围,降级的安全措施作为隐患排查清单,按照固有风险的分级对隐患排查清单开展隐患排查治理。结果表明:企业使用“量锁式”双重预防机制建立双控体系,有效控制生产安全的潜在风险,及时发现和消除重大安全隐患,最大程度上保障企业安全生产运行。

基于信息量法与斜坡单元的贵州省三都县打鱼镇地质灾害风险评价

通过资料收集、遥感影像解译和工程地质调查,获取了贵州省打鱼镇现状和历史地质灾害数据。采用多元分析工具对评价指标进行相关性分析,最终选取高差、坡度、平面曲率、剖面曲率、岩组和斜坡结构建立评价指标体系,完成了研究区地质灾害易发性评价。在此基础上联合20 a一遇降雨得到地质灾害危险性评价图,考虑人口、道路和建筑得到了承灾体易损性评价图,根据地质灾害风险判断矩阵进行了地质灾害风险分区。研究结果与实地调查结果基本一致,斜坡风险等级与地质灾害发育分布情况相符,表明基于信息量法与斜坡单元的地质灾害风险评价方法具有良好的适用性。

广州市农业土壤中六六六(HCHs)和滴滴涕(DDTs)的残留特征

采集了广州市农业土壤表层（0-20cm）样品118个,采用气相色谱方法对土壤中六六六（HCHs）和滴滴涕（DDTs）进行分析,初步揭示了广州市土壤中有机氯农药的分布及残留情况,并做出潜在生态风险评价。研究结果表明：HCHs的检出率为95.8%,残留范围在ND～17.96ng·g^-1之间,平均值2.10ng·g^-1,DDT的检出率为92.4%,残留范围在ND～327.87ng·g^-1之间,平均值为18.97ng·g^-1。HCHs的4种异构体中,β-HCH质量分数最高,平均质量分数为0.86ng·g^-1,而p,p′-DDT是4种DDTs异构体中质量分数最高的,平均质量分数为11.89ng·g^-1。不同土壤利用类型中,耕地土壤中的有机氯农药残留量明显高于林地和果园地。与国内外部分地方和我国土壤环境质量标准相比,广州市农业土壤中DDTs和HCHs污染程度较低。

作业场所职业危害监管影响因素及其量化研究

作业场所职业危害监管受到多种因素的影响,确定主要影响因素并采取针对性措施是优化监管资源,提高监管效率的重要手段。作业场所职业危害监管涉及监管决策与现场监管两个方面,作业场所的职业危害风险、作业场所所属行业的职业危害风险、作业场所所在区域的职业危害风险以及职业卫生的监管体制与运行机制等都不同程度地影响到作业场所职业危害监管的资源分配与监管的实际效果。本文在概述作业场所职业危害监管主要影响因素的基础上,对主要影响因素进行了分析并探讨了其量化评定的可能性。