[Objective] The research aimed to study the reason of local heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high control. [Method] Started from summarizing the reason of forecast error, by using the conventional gro...[Objective] The research aimed to study the reason of local heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high control. [Method] Started from summarizing the reason of forecast error, by using the conventional ground observation data, the upper air sounding data, T639, T213 and European Center (ECMWF) numerical prediction product data, GFS precipitation forecast product of U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, the weather situation, physical quantity field in a heavy rainstorm process which happened in the north of Shaoyang at night on August 5, 2010 were fully analyzed. Based on the numerical analysis forecast product data, the reason of heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high was comprehensively analyzed by using the comparison and analysis method of forecast and actual situation. [Result] The forecasters didn’t deeply and carefully analyze the weather situation. On the surface, 500 hPa was controlled by the subtropical high, but there was the weak shear line in 700 and 850 hPa. Moreover, they neglected the influences of weak cold air and easterlies wave. The subtropical high quickly weakened, and the system adjustment was too quick. The wind field variations in 850, 700 and 500 hPa which were forecasted by ECMWF had the big error with the actual situation. It was by east about 2 longitudes than the actual situation. In summer forecast, they only considered the intensity and position variations of 500 hPa subtropical high, and neglected the situation variations in the middle, low levels and on the ground. It was the most key element which caused the rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high. The forecast error of numerical forecast products on the height field situation variation was big. The precipitation forecasts of Japan FSAS, U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction GFS, T639 and T213 were all small. The humidity field forecast value of T639 was small. In the rainstorm forecast, the local rainstorm forecast index and method weren’t used in the forecast practice. In the precipitation forecast process, they only paid attention to the score prediction of station and didn’t value the non-site prediction. Some important physical quantity factors weren’t carefully studied. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for the forecast and early warning of local heavy rainstorm.展开更多
In this paper,a fuzzy reasoning based temporal error concealment method is proposed. The basic temporal error concealment is implemented by estimating Motion Vector (MV) of the lost MacroBlock (MB) from its neighborin...In this paper,a fuzzy reasoning based temporal error concealment method is proposed. The basic temporal error concealment is implemented by estimating Motion Vector (MV) of the lost MacroBlock (MB) from its neighboring MVs. Which MV is the most proper one is evaluated by some criteria. Generally,two criteria are widely used,namely Side Match Distortion (SMD) and Sum of Absolute Difference (SAD) of corresponding MV. However,each criterion could only partly describe the status of lost block. To accomplish the judgement more accurately,the two measures are considered together. Thus a refined measure based on fuzzy reasoning is adopted to balance the effects of SMD and SAD. Terms SMD and SAD are regarded as fuzzy input and the term ‘similarity’ as output to complete fuzzy reasoning. Result of fuzzy reasoning represents how the tested MV is similar to the original one. And k-means clustering technique is performed to define the membership function of input fuzzy sets adaptively. According to the experimental results,the concealment based on new measure achieves better performance.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to study the reason of local heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high control. [Method] Started from summarizing the reason of forecast error, by using the conventional ground observation data, the upper air sounding data, T639, T213 and European Center (ECMWF) numerical prediction product data, GFS precipitation forecast product of U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction, the weather situation, physical quantity field in a heavy rainstorm process which happened in the north of Shaoyang at night on August 5, 2010 were fully analyzed. Based on the numerical analysis forecast product data, the reason of heavy rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high was comprehensively analyzed by using the comparison and analysis method of forecast and actual situation. [Result] The forecasters didn’t deeply and carefully analyze the weather situation. On the surface, 500 hPa was controlled by the subtropical high, but there was the weak shear line in 700 and 850 hPa. Moreover, they neglected the influences of weak cold air and easterlies wave. The subtropical high quickly weakened, and the system adjustment was too quick. The wind field variations in 850, 700 and 500 hPa which were forecasted by ECMWF had the big error with the actual situation. It was by east about 2 longitudes than the actual situation. In summer forecast, they only considered the intensity and position variations of 500 hPa subtropical high, and neglected the situation variations in the middle, low levels and on the ground. It was the most key element which caused the rainstorm forecast error in the subtropical high. The forecast error of numerical forecast products on the height field situation variation was big. The precipitation forecasts of Japan FSAS, U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction GFS, T639 and T213 were all small. The humidity field forecast value of T639 was small. In the rainstorm forecast, the local rainstorm forecast index and method weren’t used in the forecast practice. In the precipitation forecast process, they only paid attention to the score prediction of station and didn’t value the non-site prediction. Some important physical quantity factors weren’t carefully studied. [Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for the forecast and early warning of local heavy rainstorm.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60672134)
文摘In this paper,a fuzzy reasoning based temporal error concealment method is proposed. The basic temporal error concealment is implemented by estimating Motion Vector (MV) of the lost MacroBlock (MB) from its neighboring MVs. Which MV is the most proper one is evaluated by some criteria. Generally,two criteria are widely used,namely Side Match Distortion (SMD) and Sum of Absolute Difference (SAD) of corresponding MV. However,each criterion could only partly describe the status of lost block. To accomplish the judgement more accurately,the two measures are considered together. Thus a refined measure based on fuzzy reasoning is adopted to balance the effects of SMD and SAD. Terms SMD and SAD are regarded as fuzzy input and the term ‘similarity’ as output to complete fuzzy reasoning. Result of fuzzy reasoning represents how the tested MV is similar to the original one. And k-means clustering technique is performed to define the membership function of input fuzzy sets adaptively. According to the experimental results,the concealment based on new measure achieves better performance.
