Combination of structural reliability and interval analysis

In engineering applications, probabilistic reliability theory appears to be presently the most important method, however, in many cases precise probabilistic reliability theory cannot be considered as adequate and credible model of the real state of actual affairs. In this paper, we developed a hybrid of probabilistic and non-probabilistic reliability theory, which describes the structural uncertain parameters as interval variables when statistical data are found insufficient. By using the interval analysis, a new method for calculating the interval of the structural reliability as well as the reliability index is introduced in this paper, and the traditional probabilistic theory is incorporated with the interval analysis. Moreover, the new method preserves the useful part of the traditional probabilistic reliability theory, but removes the restriction of its strict requirement on data acquisition. Example is presented to demonstrate the feasibility and validity of the proposed theory.

Static Frame Model Validation with Small Samples Solution Using Improved Kernel Density Estimation and Confidence Level Method

An improved method using kernel density estimation （KDE） and confidence level is presented for model validation with small samples. Decision making is a challenging problem because of input uncertainty and only small samples can be used due to the high costs of experimental measurements. However, model validation provides more confidence for decision makers when improving prediction accuracy at the same time. The confidence level method is introduced and the optimum sample variance is determined using a new method in kernel density estimation to increase the credibility of model validation. As a numerical example, the static frame model validation challenge problem presented by Sandia National Laboratories has been chosen. The optimum bandwidth is selected in kernel density estimation in order to build the probability model based on the calibration data. The model assessment is achieved using validation and accreditation experimental data respectively based on the probability model. Finally, the target structure prediction is performed using validated model, which are consistent with the results obtained by other researchers. The results demonstrate that the method using the improved confidence level and kernel density estimation is an effective approach to solve the model validation problem with small samples.

EXPONENTIAL TIME DIFFERENCING-PADE FINITE ELEMENT METHOD FOR NONLINEAR CONVECTION-DIFFUSION-REACTION EQUATIONS WITH TIME CONSTANT DELAY

In this paper,ETD3-Padéand ETD4-PadéGalerkin finite element methods are proposed and analyzed for nonlinear delayed convection-diffusion-reaction equations with Dirichlet boundary conditions.An ETD-based RK is used for time integration of the corresponding equation.To overcome a well-known difficulty of numerical instability associated with the computation of the exponential operator,the Padéapproach is used for such an exponential operator approximation,which in turn leads to the corresponding ETD-Padéschemes.An unconditional L^(2) numerical stability is proved for the proposed numerical schemes,under a global Lipshitz continuity assumption.In addition,optimal rate error estimates are provided,which gives the convergence order of O(k^(3)+h^(r))(ETD3-Padé)or O(k^(4)+h^(r))(ETD4-Padé)in the L^(2)norm,respectively.Numerical experiments are presented to demonstrate the robustness of the proposed numerical schemes.

Estimating traffic volume on Wyoming low volume roads using linear and logistic regression methods

Traffic volume is an important parameter in most transportation planning applications. Low volume roads make up about 69% of road miles in the United States. Estimating traffic on the low volume roads is a cost-effective alternative to taking traffic counts. This is because traditional traffic counts are expensive and impractical for low priority roads. The purpose of this paper is to present the development of two alternative means of cost- effectively estimating traffic volumes for low volume roads in Wyoming and to make recommendations for their implementation. The study methodology involves reviewing existing studies, identifying data sources, and carrying out the model development. The utility of the models developed were then verified by comparing actual traffic volumes to those predicted by the model. The study resulted in two regression models that are inexpensive and easy to implement. The first regression model was a linear regression model that utilized pavement type, access to highways, predominant land use types, and population to estimate traffic volume. In verifying the model, an R^2 value of 0.64 and a root mean square error of 73.4% were obtained. The second model was a logistic regression model that identified the level of traffic on roads using five thresholds or levels. The logistic regression model was verified by estimating traffic volume thresholds and determining the percentage of roads that were accurately classified as belonging to the given thresholds. For the five thresholds, the percentage of roads classified correctly ranged from 79% to 88%. In conclusion, the verification of the models indicated both model types to be useful for accurate and cost-effective estimation of traffic volumes for low volume Wyoming roads. The models developed were recommended for use in traffic volume estimations for low volume roads in pavement management and environmental impact assessment studies.

Simultaneous Optimality of LSE and ANOVA Estimate in General Mixed Models

Problems of the simultaneous optimal estimates and the optimal tests in general mixed models are considered. A necessary and sufficient condition is presented for the least squares estimate of the fixed effects and the analysis of variance （Hendreson III＇s） estimate of variance components being uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates simultaneously. This result can be applied to the problems of finding uniformly optimal unbiased tests and uniformly most accurate unbiased confidential interval on parameters of interest, and for finding equivalences of several common estimates of variance components.