Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress scoring system for predicting complications following abdominal surgery: A metaanalysis spanning 2004 to 2022

BACKGROUND Postoperative complications remain a paramount concern for surgeons and healthcare practitioners.AIM To present a comprehensive analysis of the Estimation of Physiologic Ability and Surgical Stress(E-PASS)scoring system’s efficacy in predicting postoperative complications following abdominal surgery.METHODS A systematic search of published studies was conducted,yielding 17 studies with pertinent data.Parameters such as preoperative risk score(PRS),surgical stress score(SSS),comprehensive risk score(CRS),postoperative complications,post-operative mortality,and other clinical data were collected for meta-analysis.Forest plots were employed for continuous and binary variables,withχ2 tests assessing heterogeneity(P value).RESULTS Patients experiencing complications after abdominal surgery exhibited significantly higher E-PASS scores compared to those without complications[mean difference and 95%confidence interval(CI)of PRS:0.10(0.05-0.15);SSS:0.04(0.001-0.08);CRS:0.19(0.07-0.31)].Following the exclusion of low-quality studies,results remained valid with no discernible heterogeneity.Subgroup analysis indicated that variations in sample size and age may contribute to hetero-geneity in CRS analysis.Binary variable meta-analysis demonstrated a correlation between high CRS and increased postoperative complication rates[odds ratio(OR)(95%CI):3.01(1.83-4.95)],with a significant association observed between high CRS and postoperative mortality[OR(95%CI):15.49(3.75-64.01)].CONCLUSION In summary,postoperative complications in abdominal surgery,as assessed by the E-PASS scoring system,are consistently linked to elevated PRS,SSS,and CRS scores.High CRS scores emerge as risk factors for heightened morbidity and mortality.This study establishes the accuracy of the E-PASS scoring system in predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality in abdominal surgery,underscoring its potential for widespread adoption in effective risk assessment.

An Estimation Method of Stress in Soft Rock Based on In-situ Measured Stress in Hard Rock

The law of variation of deep rock stress in gravitational and tectonic stress fields is analyzed based on the Hoek-Brown strength criterion. In the gravitational stress field,the rocks in the shallow area are in an elastic state and the deep,relatively soft rock may be in a plastic state. However,in the tectonic stress field,the relatively soft rock in the shallow area is in a plastic state and the deep rock in an elastic state. A method is proposed to estimate stress values in coal and soft rock based on in-situ measurements of hard rock. Our estimation method relates to the type of stress field and stress state. The equations of rock stress in various stress states are presented for the elastic,plastic and critical states. The critical state is a special stress state,which indicates the conversion of the elastic to the plastic state in the gravitational stress field and the conversion of the plastic to the elastic state in the tectonic stress field. Two cases stud-ies show that the estimation method is feasible.

Determination of the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows by the perspective of physical mechanics and Shields stress

The critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows is utmost importance for local early hazard forecasting.This paper presents research on the critical rainfall of runoff-initiated debris flows through comparisons between slope gradients and three key factors,including topographic contributing area,dimensionless discharge,and Shields stress.The rainfall amount was estimated by utilizing in-situ rainfall records and a slope-dependent Shields stress model was created.The created model can predict critical Shields stress more accurately than the other two models.Furthermore,a new dimensionless discharge equation was proposed based on the corresponding discharge-gradient datasets.The new equation,along with factors such as contributing area above bed failure sites,channel width,and mean diameter of debris flow deposits,predicts a smaller rainfall amount than the in-situ measured records.Although the slope-dependent Shields stress model performs well and the estimated rainfall amount is lower than the in-situ records,the sediment initiation in the experiments falls within sheet flow regime due to a large Shields stress.Therefore,further sediment initiation experiments at a steeper slope range are expected in the future to ensure that the sediment transport belongs to mass failure regime characterized by a low level of Shields stress.Finally,a more accurate hazard forecast on the runoff-initiated debris flow holds promise when the corresponding critical slope-dependent dimensionless discharge of no motion,fluvial sediment transport,mass flow regime,and sheet flow regime are considered.

Estimation of dynamic stress spectrum distribution in structural fatigue test

The determination of structural dynamic stress spectrum distribution is of great signifi- cance in the structural fatigue strength evaluation as well as reliability design. In previous empirical data processing methods, the data grouping and distribution fitting were excessively coarse and contained distinctive defects. This paper proposed an effective approach to statistically group actual measured dynamic stress data and validly extrapolate the combined distribution to fit the dynamic stress spectrum distribution. This approach has been verified its effectiveness through chi-square test, stress spectrum extrapolation and damage calculation in dynamic stress study.

STRESS EFFECT DECAY ESTIMATES FOR ANISOTROPIC MATERIAL IN A SEMI-INFINITE STRIP

In this paper, Saint-Venant's principle for anisotropic material in an end-loaded. semi-infinite elastic strip is established. Energy method is used to establish the lower bounds of the decay estimate of stress effect. An explicit estimate formula in terms of the elastic constants of the anisotropic materials is presented. Finally, a numerical example for an end-loaded, off-axis, graphite-epoxy strip is given to illustrate the results.

An investigation of machine learning techniques to estimate minimum horizontal stress magnitude from borehole breakout

Borehole breakout is a widely utilised phenomenon in horizontal stress orientation determination,and breakout geometrical parameters,such as width and depth,have been used to estimate both horizontal stress magnitudes.However,the accuracy of minimum horizontal stress estimation from borehole breakout remains relatively low in comparison to maximum horizontal stress estimation.This paper aims to compare and improve the minimum horizontal stress estimation via a number of machine learning(ML)regression techniques,including parametric and non-parametric models,which have rarely been explored.ML models were trained based on 79 laboratory data from published literature and validated against 23 field data.A systematic bias was observed in the prediction for the validation dataset whenever the horizontal stress value exceeded the maximum value in the training data.Nevertheless,the pattern was captured,and the removal of systematic bias showed that the artificial neural network is capable of predicting the minimum horizontal stress with an average error rate of 10.16%and a root mean square error of 3.87 MPa when compared to actual values obtained through conventional in-situ measurement techniques.This is a meaningful improvement considering the importance of in-situ stress knowledge for underground operations and the availability of borehole breakout data.

Fatigue Life Prediction for SiC/Al Materials Based on Path Planning Algorithm Considering Residual Stress

To explore the influence of path deflection on crack propagation,a path planning algorithm is presented to calculate the crack growth length.The fatigue crack growth life of metal matrix composites(MMCs)is estimated based on an improved Paris formula.Considering the different expansion coefficient of different materials,the unequal shrinkage will lead to residual stress when the composite is molded and cooled.The crack growth model is improved by the modified stress ratio based on residual stress.The Dijkstra algorithm is introduced to avoid the cracks passing through the strengthening base and the characteristics of crack steps.This model can be extended to predict crack growth length for other similarly-structured composite materials.The shortest path of crack growth is simulated by using path planning algorithm,and the fatigue life of composites is calculated based on the shortest path and improved model.And the residual stress caused by temperature change is considered to improve the fatigue crack growth model in the material.The improved model can well predict the fatigue life curve of composites.By analyzing the fatigue life of composites,it is found that there is a certain regularity based on metal materials,and the new fatigue prediction model can also reflect this regularity.

2013年和2022年芦山地震序列断层面花状构造及其滑动特性研究

芦山地区在2013年和2022年发生两次6.0级以上地震,本研究收集两次地震的余震序列,研究两次芦山地震发震断层的几何参数和滑动特性,并分析汶川地震和2013年芦山地震对2022年芦山地震的应力影响.得到以下结论:(1)基于收集到的两次芦山地震序列的2531个地震事件的精确定位结果,采用模糊聚类方法,求解得到芦山地震序列的5个发震断层面位置及其走向和倾角,5个断层面在空间上呈花状构造分布.(2)基于收集和计算得到的该地区的127个震源机制中心解,求解得到该地区的构造应力场,得到芦山地区形成了SEE—NWW向挤压,垂直向拉张的以逆冲为主的应力状态.(3)通过将构造应力场投影到两次芦山地震发震断层上,得到这些发震断层面上均容易发生逆冲型破裂事件.(4)将求解的2022年芦山地震序列发震断层面形状和滑动特性作为接收断层参数,计算汶川地震和2013年芦山地震对2022年芦山地震序列的应力影响,结果显示汶川地震对2022年芦山地震序列发震断层面的活动性起到促进作用,而汶川地震和2013年芦山地震的共同作用,对2022年芦山地震序列发震断层面的活动性起到抑制作用,即2013年芦山地震的发生推迟了2022年芦山地震序列的发生.基于GPS观测的应变率得到,在汶川地震和2013年芦山地震的共同作用下,2022年芦山地震被推迟的时间约为5.2~10.5年.这些研究对研究龙门山推覆构造带南段的断层活动特性和地震危险性评估有一定意义.

相依部件平均剩余强度的非参数贝叶斯估计

应力-强度系统是一种普遍的系统结构,估计系统平均剩余强度时通常假设部件间相互独立。然而,基于部件独立假设会造成平均剩余强度估计的不准确。利用copula理论建立部件强度间的相依关系,得到了系统平均剩余强度的表达式。采用非参数贝叶斯方法估计了系统的平均剩余强度,对串联系统和并联系统数据进行蒙特卡罗模拟,验证了方法的有效性。结果表明,在部件强度相依的情况下,基于独立假定的串联系统平均剩余强度被低估,并联系统的平均剩余强度则被高估。因此,系统部件间的相依影响不能忽略。

基于核密度估计的起重机应力谱编制方法研究

准确获得起重机金属结构的应力谱是疲劳寿命评估的前提,基于短期实测应力数据样本外推至全寿命周期内应力谱的方法是当前常用的一种方法,针对起重机疲劳寿命评估中常用的基于威布尔分布统计模型外推方法存在的一些不足,文中提出了基于核密度估计的起重机应力谱的外推流程和方法,并以岸边集装箱起重机为研究对象,利用文中给出的流程、方法外推应力循环幅值数据。外推数据统计分析结果显示:基于核密度估计方法生成的数据较好地反映了测试数据的统计特征,与基于威布尔统计模型的外推方法相比,具有不需要进行先验假设、拟合精度高的特点。

逐步Ⅱ型混合截尾下Lomax分布多部件应力强度模型的可靠性分析

基于逐步Ⅱ型混合截尾样本,研究Lomax分布多部件应力强度模型的可靠性分析问题。假设应力和强度具有不同形状参数和共同尺度参数,利用极大似然理论及迭代方法获得可靠度函数的极大似然估计(MLE),并给出渐近置信区间;然后,运用贝叶斯理论,借助Tierney-Kadane(TK)近似方法、MCMC算法,讨论平方误差损失函数下未知参数及可靠度的贝叶斯估计,给出其最大后验密度可信区间(HPD);最后,利用Monte-Carlo模拟方法对估计结果进行对比分析。模拟结果显示:贝叶斯估计整体上优于极大似然估计,并且随样本量的增大,2种估计的均方误差(MSE)均逐渐减小,HPD可信区间的效果优于渐近置信区间。

逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾下复合Rayleigh分布竞争失效产品部分步加寿命试验的统计分析

本文在逐步Ⅰ型混合截尾下,研究复合Rayleigh分布竞争失效产品部分步加寿命试验的统计分析问题。首先,基于复合Rayleigh分布竞争失效产品和损伤失效率(TFR)模型,运用极大似然理论和渐近似然理论,给出未知参数和加速因子的极大似然估计和渐近置信区间;然后,对未知参数和加速因子选取先验,利用MH抽样算法获得参数和加速因子的Bayes估计和最大后验密度置信区间(HPD);最后,通过Monte Carlo模拟对2种估计方法进行比较。结果表明:贝叶斯估计效果整体优于极大似然估计(MLE),在相同置信水平下,基于Bayes估计的HPD置信区间长度略短于MLE的渐近置信区间长度。

逐步Ⅱ型截尾步进应力部分加速寿命试验的统计推断

基于逐步Ⅱ型截尾样本,研究了逆Rayleigh分布在步进应力部分加速寿命试验下的统计分析问题.首先运用贝叶斯方法、极大似然估计方法和近似极大似然估计方法,得到了未知参数和加速度因子的贝叶斯估计(BE)、极大似然估计(MLE)和近似极大似然估计(AMLE),并运用极大似然估计的渐近正态性推导出未知参数和加速因子的渐近置信区间.其次,运用贝叶斯理论在平方损失函数和线性指数损失函数下给出了模型参数和加速因子的贝叶斯估计和最大后验密度(HPD)置信区间.最后,利用蒙特卡罗模拟对3种不同估计方法的精度进行了评估.数值模拟表明:贝叶斯估计的效果大体上优于极大似然估计和近似极大似然估计的效果;线性指数损失函数下的贝叶斯估计效果要优于平方损失函数下的贝叶斯估计效果;随着样本量的增加,3种估计方法的均方误差(MSE)和平均相对误差(ARE)均呈减小趋势;在同一组样本和同一种移除方案中,BE的HPD置信区间长度优于MLE的渐近置信区间长度.

界限估计方法在高压配电系统地震易损性分析中的应用研究

配电系统中某一单体设备的抗震性能评估结果难以表征配电系统整体的抗震能力,高压配电系统的抗震安全性评估研究亟需开展。目前,用于结构系统可靠性评估的界限估计方法在土木工程结构领域得到应用和推广,此方法在电力系统抗震性能概率性评估中的应用较少。基于此,文中以某实际工程高压配电系统为例,采用一阶界限估计方法和二阶界限估计方法对配电系统的易损性进行研究。研究结果表明:该配电系统的超限概率大于系统中任一单体设备的超限概率;基于一阶界限估计方法求解的配电系统易损性曲线界限区间较宽,不利于工程的实际应用;基于二阶界限估计方法求解的易损性曲线界限区间窄,但下界对系统中单体设备的超限排列顺序较为敏感,在应用此方法时应特别注意。

基于Arrhenius-Weibull模型的ECU步进应力加速试验设计

文章基于Arrhenius-Weibull模型对ECU的加速寿命试验方法展开研究,基于加速模型试验原理选择步进应力施加方式。为满足产品的可靠度指标,通过分析Weibull分布情况计算最小试验样件数量。通过最大似然估计的方法确定产品的Arrhenius-Weibull模型参数,以便完成各个应力阶段的等效转换。通过对步进加速试验设计过程示例,提供一种满足产品寿命参数指标的判断依据,为后续从业者进行相关的加速试验设计提供依据。

Physiological,Biochemical and Molecular Responses of Barley Seedlings to Aluminum Stress

Barley(Hordeum vulgare L.)is one of the most Aluminum(Al)sensitive cereal species.In this study,the physiological,biochemical,and molecular response of barley seedlings to Al treatment was examined to gain insight into Al response and tolerance mechanisms.The results showed that superoxide dismutase(SOD),peroxidase(POD)and catalase(CAT)activity were inhibited to different degrees following Al exposure.The MDA content also significantly increased with increasing Al concentrations.SRAP results indicated significant differences between Al treatments and controls in terms of SRAP profile,and the genomic template stability(GTS)decreased with increasing Al concentration and duration.These integrative results help to elucidate the underlying mechanisms that the barley response to Al toxicity.

Inference for constant-stress accelerated life test with Type-I progressively hybrid censored data from Burr-XII distribution

This paper proposes a simple constant-stress accel- erated life test （ALT） model from Burr type XII distribution when the data are Type-I progressively hybrid censored. The maximum likelihood estimation （MLE） of the parameters is obtained through the numerical method for solving the likelihood equations. Approxi- mate confidence interval （CI）, based on normal approximation to the asymptotic distribution of MLE and percentile bootstrap Cl is derived. Finally, a numerical example is introduced and then a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to illustrate the pro- posed method.

Acoustic Monitoring of Anomaly Stressed Zones, Determination Their Positions, Surfaces, Evaluation of Catastrophic Risk

Abstract Problem statement. Self-organization is not a universal property of matter, it exists under certain internal and external conditions and this is not associated with a special class of substances. The study of the morphology and dynamics of migration of anomalous zones associated with increased stresses is of particular importance in the development of deep deposits, complicated by dynamic phenomena in the form of rock impacts. Applied method and design: An important tool for this study is geophysical exploration. To describe the geological environment in the form of an array of rocks with its natural and technogenic heterogeneity, one should use its more adequate description, which is a discrete model of the medium in the form of a piecewise heterogeneous block medium with embedded heterogeneities of a lower rank than the block size. This nesting can be traced several times, i.e. changing the scale of the study;we see that heterogeneities of a lower rank now appear in the form of blocks for heterogeneities of the next rank. A simple averaging of the measured geophysical parameters can lead to distorted ideas about the structure of the medium and its evolution. Typical results: We have analyzed the morphology of the structural features of disintegration zones before a strong dynamic phenomenon. The introduction of the proposed integrated passive and active geophysical monitoring into the mining system, aimed at studying the transient processes of the redistribution of stress-strain and phase states, can help prevent catastrophic dynamic manifestations during the development of deep-located deposits. Concluding note (Practical value/implications): Active geophysical monitoring methods should be tuned to a model of a hierarchical heterogeneous environment. Iterative algorithms for 2-D modeling and interpretation for sound diffraction and a linearly polarized transverse elastic wave on the inclusion with a hierarchical elastic structure located in the J-th layer of the N-layer elastic medium are constructed.

Reliability Bounds based on Universal Generating Function and Discrete Stress-strength Interference Model

A method for estimating the component reliability is proposed when the probability density functions of stress and strength can not be exactly determined. For two groups of finite experimental data about the stress and strength, an interval statistics method is introduced. The processed results are formulated as two interval-valued random variables and are graphically represented component reliability are proposed based on the by using two histograms. The lower and upper bounds of universal generating function method and are calculated by solving two discrete stress-strength interference models. The graphical calculations of the proposed reliability bounds are presented through a numerical example and the confidence of the proposed reliability bounds is discussed to demonstrate the validity of the proposed method. It is showed that the proposed reliability bounds can undoubtedly bracket the real reliability value. The proposed method extends the exciting universal generating function method and can give an interval estimation of component reliability in the case of lake of sufficient experimental data. An application example is given to illustrate the proposed method

模态试验法测试焊接残余应力机理分析及模型参数估计

为避免残余应力对焊接结构的不利影响,保证其可靠性,需要探究残余应力分布.模态试验法因具有快速和无损的特点,逐渐应用于残余应力测试.为实现模态试验法测试焊接残余应力,通过振动理论分析了模态试验法的机理,获得了薄板焊件中残余应力与固有频率的关系;薄板焊件中的残余拉应力使固有频率减小,残余压应力使固有频率增大.在此基础上,将钻孔法和模态试验相结合,借助数据拟合的方法,估计了模态试验法测试6 mm 7A52铝合金试板VPPA-MIG(variable polarity plasma arc-metal inert gas)复合焊接残余应力的模型参数,确立了固有频率与残余应力的数值关系.依据确立的数值关系,测得了7A52铝合金试板在不同复合焊接参数下的纵向残余应力分布.结果表明,接头各区域的残余应力分布特征与钻孔法测得的结果基本一致,偏差在4%范围之内,估计出的模型参数能够保证模态试验法测试结果的可靠性,实现了焊接残余应力的快速和无损测试.