A gated recurrent unit model to predict Poisson’s ratio using deep learning

Static Poisson’s ratio(vs)is crucial for determining geomechanical properties in petroleum applications,namely sand production.Some models have been used to predict vs;however,the published models were limited to specific data ranges with an average absolute percentage relative error(AAPRE)of more than 10%.The published gated recurrent unit(GRU)models do not consider trend analysis to show physical behaviors.In this study,we aim to develop a GRU model using trend analysis and three inputs for predicting n s based on a broad range of data,n s(value of 0.1627-0.4492),bulk formation density(RHOB)(0.315-2.994 g/mL),compressional time(DTc)(44.43-186.9 μs/ft),and shear time(DTs)(72.9-341.2μ s/ft).The GRU model was evaluated using different approaches,including statistical error an-alyses.The GRU model showed the proper trends,and the model data ranges were wider than previous ones.The GRU model has the largest correlation coefficient(R)of 0.967 and the lowest AAPRE,average percent relative error(APRE),root mean square error(RMSE),and standard deviation(SD)of 3.228%,1.054%,4.389,and 0.013,respectively,compared to other models.The GRU model has a high accuracy for the different datasets:training,validation,testing,and the whole datasets with R and AAPRE values were 0.981 and 2.601%,0.966 and 3.274%,0.967 and 3.228%,and 0.977 and 2.861%,respectively.The group error analyses of all inputs show that the GRU model has less than 5% AAPRE for all input ranges,which is superior to other models that have different AAPRE values of more than 10% at various ranges of inputs.

2024年1月23日乌什M_(S)7.1地震序列类型判定

利用新疆地震台网观测数据,对2024年1月23日乌什M_(S)7.1地震序列进行分析,结果显示乌什地震序列的余震活动丰富,频度衰减较快。通过历史地震序列类比、序列参数(b值、p值、h值)、等待时间、震级差和能量比等参数的跟踪分析,判断此次乌什M_(S)7.1地震序列为主震―余震型。从历史地震序列类型的早期定性判定到地震序列参数定量计算的跟踪判定乌什7.1级地震序列类型,对地震序列类型的跟踪判定有一定参考作用。

基于RST算法提取乌什M_(S)7.1地震地表温度异常

为探讨RST算法在新疆地区地震热红外异常提取中的适用性,以乌什M_(S)7.1地震为例,构建研究区MODIS地表温度数据集,并对数据集进行逐像元时间序列趋势去除后,利用RST算法提取乌什M_(S)7.1地震地表温度异常信息。结果表明:乌什M_(S)7.1地震地表温度异常的变化过程分为“出现—消失—再出现—扩大—达到最大—消失”6个阶段;乌什M_(S)7.1地震的地表温度异常区域大致沿构造带的走向分布;乌什M_(S)7.1地震发生在地表温度异常面积出现最大值后的第99天。利用MODIS数据结合RST算法提取地震热红外异常在新疆地区相关研究中具有一定的可行性。

Colorectal cancer burden,trends and risk factors in China:A review and comparison with the United States

Objective:China and the United States(the U.S.)have the heaviest colorectal cancer(CRC)burden with considerable variations in temporal trends.This study aims to analyze the temporal patterns of CRC burden and its risk factors in China and the U.S.across the past three decades.Methods:Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)Study in 2019,including cases,deaths,disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),age-standardized rate(ASR),and summary exposure value(SEV)of CRC in China and the U.S.between 1990 and 2019.Annual average percentage changes(AAPCs)of CRC burden were calculated using the Joinpoint regression model.The mortality in CRC attributable to potential risk factors was characterized by countries,gender,and age groups.Results:In 2019,there were 607,900 and 227,241 CRC cases,and 261,777 and 84,026 CRC deaths in China and the U.S.,respectively.The age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)was 30.55 per 100,000 in China and 41.86 per100,000 in the U.S.,and the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)was 13.86 per 100,000 in China and 14.77 per100,000 in the U.S.CRC incidence,mortality,and DALY rate in the U.S.showed downward trends in the past three decades(AAPC=-0.47,-1.06,and-0.88,respectively),while upward trends were observed in China(AAPC=3.11,1.05,and 0.91,respectively).Among the cause of CRC,the leading risk factor contributing to CRC death was low milk in China and smoking in the U.S.,respectively.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2019,the burden of CRC in China increased dramatically,particularly for males and middle-aged and elderly people.The management of the major risk factors associated with the high burden of CRC should be enhanced.

The Regions with the Most Significant Temperature Trends During the Last Century

Having analyzed a global grid temperature anomaly data set and some sea level pressure data during the last century, we found the following facts. Firstly, the annual temperature change with a warming trend of about 0.6°C/ 100 years in the tropical area over Indian to the western Pacific Oceans was most closely correlated to the global mean change. Therefore, the temperature change in this area might serve as an indi-cator of global mean change at annual and longer time scales. Secondly, a cooling of about -0.3°C/ 100 years occurred over the northern Atlantic. Thirdly, a two-wave pattern of temperature change, warming over northern Asia and northwestern America and cooling over the northern Atlantic and the northern Pa-cific, occurred during the last half century linked to strengthening westerlies over the northern Atlantic and the weakening Siberian High. Fourthly, a remarkable seasonal difference occurred over the Eurasian con-tinent, with cooling (warming) in winter (summer) during 1896–1945, and warming (cooling) in winter (summer) during 1946-1995. The corresponding variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the South-ern Oscillation were also discussed. Key words Temperature trend - Mann-Kendall’s Test - Significance - Regional difference - Correlation coefficient This study was supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology Projects G1999043400 and Na-tional Key Project- “Studies on Short-Term Climate Prediction System in China” under Grant No.96-908-01-04.

Climate Change: Trends and People’s Perception in Nepal

In the context of climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as floods and droughts will increase which could put tremendous challenges in water resources management in the coming days. While scientific knowledge on climate threats and changing climate patterns are essential, it is also important to consider the impacts in relation to how the threats are perceived and handled by local people. This paper intends to assess the trend and people’s perception on temperature and precipitation. Three focus groups’ discussion and a total number of 240 households were interviewed during field visit. The collected information was scaled from the least preferred-1 to the most preferred-5 based on their preferences. The trend of mean of annual average, maximum and minimum temperature indicates that the temperature has increased significantly and precipitation intensity and magnitude are also in increasing trend in the monsoon and postmonsoon seasons which may raise the extreme flood events. These facts were verified with the people’s perception. This finding could be useful for formulation of effective flood management policy and plan in this river basin as well as very applicable for other similar areas.

Evaluation and Trend Analysis of Surface Water Quality in Zhengzhou in 1998-2008

Water pollution is one of the major environmental prob- lems, especially in urban areas. Due to rapid urban expansion and industrialization, water pollution in Zhengzhou City, the capital of Henan Province in central China has become a serious problem for its development. In this study, the surface water quality was evalu- ated using Nemerow Comprehensive Pollution Index （NCPI）, and the change trend was calculated using methods of Mann-Kendall test and Sen＇s slope estimator, based on the monitoring data from 1998 to 2008. The results show that the NCP1 ranged from 3 to 50 in 70% of the monitoring cases, implying that most rivers were seriously polluted. However, this serious polltuon is expected to be gradually improved, as the concentration of water pollutants and NCPI declined significantly in most rivers. Water pollution in reservoirs was much lower than rivers, and the NCPI in the three monitored reservoirs was lower than 3 in most years, and shows a downward trend. Although the surface water quality was gradually improved, great efforts are still needed to enhance the protection and improvement of surface water environment.

Trends in major and minor meteorological variables and their influence on reference evapotranspiration for mid Himalayan region at east Sikkim, India

Abstract： Estimation of evapotranspiration （ET） for mountain ecosystem is of absolute importance since it serves as an important component in balancing the hydrologic cycle. The present study evaluates the performance of original and location specific calibrated Hargreaves equation （HARG） with the estimates of Food and Agricultural Organization （FAO） Penman Monteith （PM） method for higher altitudes in East Sikkim, India. The results show that the uncalibrated HARG model underestimates ET0 by 0.35 mm day^-1 whereas the results are significantly improved by regional calibration of the model. In addition, this paper also presents the variability in the trajectory associated with the climatic variables with the changing climate in the study site. Non- parametric Mann-Kendall （MK） test was used to investigate and understand the mean monthly trend of eight climatic parameters including reference evapotranspiration （ET0） for the period of 1985 - 2009. Trend of ET0 was estimated for the calculations done by FAO PM equation. The outcomes of the trend analysis show significant increasing （p ≤ 0.05） trend represented by higher Z-values, through MK test, for net radiation （Rn）, maximum temperature （Tmax） and minimum temperature （Train）, especially in the first months of the year. Whereas, significant （0.01 ≥ p ≤0.05） decreasing trend in vapor pressure deficit （VPD） and precipitation （P） is observed throughout the year. Declining trend in sunshine duration, VPD and ET0 is found in spring （March - May） and monsoon （June - November） season. The result displays significant （0.01≤ p ≤0.05） decreasing ET0 trend between （June - December） except in July, exhibiting the positive relation with VPD followed by sunshine duration at the station. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of trend analysis of ET0 and other climatic variables for efficient planning and managing the agricultural practices, in identifying the changes in the meteorological parameters and to accurately assess the hydrologic water balance of the hilly regions.

A Trend Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall to Predict Climate Change for Northwestern Region of Bangladesh

Bangladesh is one in all the foremost climate vulnerable countries of the world. In recent years, climate change studies over the country get plenty of attention by the researchers and policy makers. A substantial quantity of global climate change studies over the country use climate models to estimate future projections and uncertainties. Maximum temperature, precipitation and their potential future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of the 5th Phase Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) diagnostic exercise for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the available historical data collected by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) during the period 1981-2008 in the north-western region of Bangladesh and also the comparison between these two values. It has been found that average maximum temperature shows a positive trend of increase at a rate of 0.29°C and 5.3°C per century respectively, for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. But the rainfall is decreasing at a rate of 8.8 mm and 40.1 mm per century respectively for BMD data and MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data. It is seen that July was the maximum monsoon rainfall month and January was the lowest rainfall month. The peak frequency is slightly smaller than 12 months, which indicates that the major events are occurring before ending a year compared to the previous year. According to MPI-ESM-LR (CMIP5) model data, future normal temperature on north-western region will be increased at a rate of 1.62°C during the period 2040-2100.

Assessment of China's International Environment and U.S. Strategic Trend

It is of great significance to have a clear understanding of the international environment that China faces. But this is an uneasy job. Since September 11, the world situation has become so complicated that it is hard to grasp its essence even with painstaking efforts. To judge such an already complicated international environment from China’s perspective adds more difficulties, for different people usually have different views due to the different angles from which they see the situation and different methods they adopt. This, understandably, leads to hot debates within the Chinese academic circles. To provide a stage for exchange of views, at the invitation of the CIR Expert Forum, some well-known scholars and experts on international relations from Beijing gathered to hold a symposium on November 5, 2002, with the theme of "How to assess the international environment that China faces". The speeches at the symposium will be published in two installments. Following are the first half.

Trend of Network Services and NEC’s Approach

1 A Decade of Experience in Offering Network Services in Japan2 Why Internet Now?2.1 The Internet as the Standard.bearer of Multimedia2.2 The Internet up to Now2.3 PC Online Services vs.Internet2.4 Intranct and Electronic Commerce Services to Come2.5 Commercial Internet Services as

Mediterranean Sea level trends from long-period tide gauge time series

The main purpose of this study is to highlight, on the basis of statistical tests, the significant long-term changes of the Mediterranean Sea level, through the analysis of historical tide gauge records. In this framework, 14 tide gauge monthly series selected from the Permanent Service of the Mean Sea Level(PSMSL) database were used. The search for the presence or not of trends within these series, that have a temporal coverage from 59 to 142 years, was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimator. The obtained results show that the Split Rt Marjana series are the only ones which does not exhibit a significant trend. The other 13 series show significant increasing trends. This result seems sufficient to suppose the presence, in the past century, of a new climatic phase on the scale of the Mediterranean basin, where the rising sea level is one of the consequences.

Sustainable Growth in China’s Communications Field: Trend Analysis of Impact of China’s Academic Publications

China＇s cormaaunications industry is an important part of the electronic information industry, and plays a significant role in the national informatization process. In 2006, China issued its National Plans for Medium and Long-term Development of Science and Technology （2006-2020） （NPMLDST）. Since 2006, there has been a rapid increase in the number of citations of China＇s interna- tional papers in the field of communications. In accordance with the goals listed in the NPMLDST, China needs to over- take several competitors by 2020 to be among the top five countries in the field of natural science field. By comparing two Essential Science Indicators （ESI） （i.e., the total number of citations and the number of citations per paper） for China and other countries, China＇s annual growth rate is found to exceed that of other influential countries in the field of sci- ence and technology, and exhibits evident growth-type characteristics. Besides, our study also shows that the short- age of high-quality academic papers in China is the main obstacle to improving the impact of China＇s academic publications.

Viewing Japan's Trend from "Koizumi Politics"

The words like "Hashimoto Politics" and "Obuchi Politics" are seldom heard since the 1990s. But changes in political and economic areas demonstrate that the existence of "Koizumi Politics" and its impact can be felt indeed in the past couple of years. It is hard to tell whether Koizumi could successfully promote economic reform and pep up the long-depressed economy. However, Koizumi has launched a

基于改进TOPSIS的水资源承载力动态评价

为进一步研究水资源的动态性,并针对传统TOPSIS评价水资源承载力存在的问题,如评价值临近分级区间边界时,等级区分度不高,从而难以形成客观有效评价。利用D-S证据理论能有效降低数据差异性带来的损失,融合结果客观准确的优势,改进TOPSIS方法进行水资源评价。通过融合TOPSIS方法中的指标向量与正负理想解的距离,获取水资源承载力各等级合成信度,基于具有较大区分度的合成信度值判断水资源承载力等级。在此基础上,引入指标增量计算历年水资源承载力的变化情况,利用时间权向量组合历年变化情况,分析水资源承载力发展趋势。算例结果表明:改进TOPSIS方法后,2018、2020年的水资源承载力评价值与区间边界的区分度,由0.0003、0.0011提升到0.019、0.3367。同时,利用提出的趋势分析法计算2020年水资源承载力趋势,与实际结果差距仅为0.0019,验证了方法的有效性。最后根据本文方法预测2021年水资源承载力为负向变化趋势,并采用障碍因子模型诊断主要影响指标为年降水量及人均水资源量,提出加强生态环境建设及优化水资源合理配置的建议。利用本文方法进行水资源承载力评价具有更高的等级区分度,评价结果合理客观,符合实际情况,并且能综合利用历年动态数据,较为准确的描述水资源承载力的变化情况,可为水资源的开发保护提供科学依据。

An Analysis of the Trend of U.S.-Saudi Relations

In the aftermath of the September 11th events,the trend ofAmerican relations with Arab nations has become the importantfactor that influences the evolution of international pattern.Particular-ly,the changes of American-Saudi relations attract worldwide atten-tion.This article tries to make a brief analysis and comment on the fea-

Trends in China's Computer Market in 1997

Computers and communications equipment are China’s focal points for development in the Ninth Five-Year Plan (FYP) period. With the development of computer technology, computer performance is improved and it is used in a wider range of fields, especially driven by the international trend for the information era. China has seen soaring demand on the computer market in recent years, and the