Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are d...Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are designed to forecast the daily extreme precipitation quantitatively. The formulation indicates that the EFIEP is correlated not only to the EFI but also to the proportion of no precipitation. This characteristic is prominent as two areas with nearly same EFIs but different proportions of no precipitation. Cases study shows that the EFIEP can forecast reliable percentile of daily precipitation and 100% percentiles are forecasted for over max extreme events. The EFIEQ is a considerable tool for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Compared to the probabilistic forecast of ensemble prediction system (EPS), it is quantitative and synthesizes the advantage of extreme precipitation location forecast of EPS. Using the observations of 2311 stations of China in 2016 to verify the EFIEP and EFIEQ, the results show that the forecast biases are around 1. The threat scores (TS) for 20 years return period events are about 0.21 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 hours lead times respectively. The equivalent threat scores (ETS) are all larger than 0 and nearly equal to the TS. The TS for heavy rainfall are 0.23 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 lead times respectively. The scores are better than those of high resolution deterministic model (HRDet) and show significant forecast skills for quantitative forecast of extreme daily precipitation.展开更多
In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average varianc...In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average variance with adaptive l1 penalty. Implementation algorithm is given. Under some regular conditions, we demonstrate the oracle properties of aLASSO procedure for PLSIM. Simulations are used to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method for variable selection of PLSIM.展开更多
Dust emissions from smelters, as a major contributor to heavy metal contamination in soils, could severely influence soil quality. Downwind surface soils within 1.5 km of a zinc smelter, which was active for 10 years ...Dust emissions from smelters, as a major contributor to heavy metal contamination in soils, could severely influence soil quality. Downwind surface soils within 1.5 km of a zinc smelter, which was active for 10 years but ceased in 2000, in Magu Town, Cuizhou Province, China were selected to examine Pb, Zn, and Cd concentrations and their fractionation along a distance gradient from a zinc smelter, and to study the possible effects of Pb, Zn, and Cd accumulation on soil microorganisms by comparing with a reference soil located at a downwind distance of 10 km from the zinc smelter. Soils within 1.5 km of the zinc smelter accumulated high levels of heavy metals Zn （508 mg kg^-1）, Pb （95.6 mg kg^-1）, and Cd （5.98 mg kg^-1） with low ratios of Zn/Cd （59.1-115） and Pb/Cd （12.4-23.4）. Composite pollution indices （CPIs） of surface soils （2.52-15.2） were 3 to 13 times higher than the reference soils. In metal accumulated soils, exchangeable plus carbonate-bound fractions accounted for more than 10% of the total Zn, Pb, and Cd. The saturation degree of metals （SDM） in soils within 1.5 km of the smelter （averaging 1.25） was six times higher than that of the reference soils （0.209）. A smaller soil microbial biomass was found more frequently in metal accumulated soils （85.1-438 μg C g^-1） than in reference soils （497 μg C g^-1）, and a negative correlation （P 〈 0.01） of soil microbial biomass carbon to organic carbon ratio （Cmic/Corg） with SDM was observed. Microbial consumption of carbon sources was more rapid in contaminated soils than in reference soils, and a shift in the substrate utilization pattern was apparent and was negatively correlated with SDM （R = -0.773, P 〈 0.01）. Consequently, dust deposited Pb, Zn, and Cd in soils from zinc smelting were readily mobilized, and were detrimental to soil quality mainly in respect of microbial biomass .展开更多
Synoptic patterns identified by an automated procedure employing principal- component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis, and backward trajectory analysis clustered by the HYSPLIT4.9 model were used to examine ...Synoptic patterns identified by an automated procedure employing principal- component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis, and backward trajectory analysis clustered by the HYSPLIT4.9 model were used to examine air quality patterns over¨ Uru¨mqi, China, one of the most heavily polluted cities in the world. Six synoptic patterns representing different atmospheric circulation patterns and air-mass characteristics were classified during the winter heating periods from 2001 to 2008, and seven trajectory clusters representing different paths of air masses arriving at ürümqi were calculated during the winter heating periods from 2005 to 2008. Then air quality was evaluated using these two approaches, and significant variations were found across both synoptic patterns and trajectory clusters. The heaviest air-pollution episodes occurred when ürümqi was either in an extremely cold, strong anticyclone or at the front of a migrating cyclone. Both conditions were characterized by with light winds, cold, wet surface air, and relatively dry upper air. ürümqi was predominately influenced by air masses from the southwest and from local areas. Air pollution index （API） levels were highest for air masses originating from the southwest with a longer path or for the local area, because of transport from semi-desert/desert regions by strong winds and because of local heavy pollution emissions, respectively. The interactions between these two analytical approaches showed that poor diffusion conditions, together with local circulation, enhanced air pollution, besides, regional air-mass transport caused by strong winds contributed to serious air quality under relatively good diffusion conditions.展开更多
AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (B...AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.展开更多
Land use and land cover are essential for maintaining and managing the natural resources on the earth surface. A complex set of economic, demographic, social, cultural, technological, and environmental processes usual...Land use and land cover are essential for maintaining and managing the natural resources on the earth surface. A complex set of economic, demographic, social, cultural, technological, and environmental processes usually result in the change in the land use/land cover change (LULC). Pokhara Metropolitan is influenced mainly by the combination of various driving forces: geographical location, high rate of population growth, economic opportunity, globalization, tourism activities, and political activities. In addition to this, geographically steep slope, rugged terrain, and fragile geomorphic conditions and the frequency of earthquakes, floods, and landslides make the Pokhara Metropolitan region a disaster-prone area. The increment of the population along with infrastructure development of a given territory leads towards the urbanization. It has been rapidly changing due to urbanization, industrialization and internal migration since the 1970s. The landscapes and ground patterns are frequently changing on time and prone to disaster. Here a study has been carried to study on LULC for the last 18 years (2000-2018). The supervised classification on Landsat Imagery was performed and verified the classification through computing the error matrix. Besides, the water bodies and vegetation area were extracted through the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDWI) respectively. This research shows that during the last 18 years the agricultural areas diminishing by 15.66% while urban area is increasing by 13.2%. This research is beneficial for preparing the plan and policy in the sustainable development of Pokhara Metropolitan.展开更多
文摘Based on the extreme forecast index (EFI) of ECMWF, the “observed” EFI (OEFI) of observation is defined and the EFI is calibrated. Then the EFI equivalent percentile (EFIEP) and EFI equivalent quantile (EFIEQ) are designed to forecast the daily extreme precipitation quantitatively. The formulation indicates that the EFIEP is correlated not only to the EFI but also to the proportion of no precipitation. This characteristic is prominent as two areas with nearly same EFIs but different proportions of no precipitation. Cases study shows that the EFIEP can forecast reliable percentile of daily precipitation and 100% percentiles are forecasted for over max extreme events. The EFIEQ is a considerable tool for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). Compared to the probabilistic forecast of ensemble prediction system (EPS), it is quantitative and synthesizes the advantage of extreme precipitation location forecast of EPS. Using the observations of 2311 stations of China in 2016 to verify the EFIEP and EFIEQ, the results show that the forecast biases are around 1. The threat scores (TS) for 20 years return period events are about 0.21 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 hours lead times respectively. The equivalent threat scores (ETS) are all larger than 0 and nearly equal to the TS. The TS for heavy rainfall are 0.23 and 0.07 for 36 and 180 lead times respectively. The scores are better than those of high resolution deterministic model (HRDet) and show significant forecast skills for quantitative forecast of extreme daily precipitation.
文摘In this article, we study the variable selection of partially linear single-index model(PLSIM). Based on the minimized average variance estimation, the variable selection of PLSIM is done by minimizing average variance with adaptive l1 penalty. Implementation algorithm is given. Under some regular conditions, we demonstrate the oracle properties of aLASSO procedure for PLSIM. Simulations are used to investigate the effectiveness of the proposed method for variable selection of PLSIM.
基金Project supported by the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.KZCX2-105)the "Light in Western China" Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Guizhou Province, and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40473049)
文摘Dust emissions from smelters, as a major contributor to heavy metal contamination in soils, could severely influence soil quality. Downwind surface soils within 1.5 km of a zinc smelter, which was active for 10 years but ceased in 2000, in Magu Town, Cuizhou Province, China were selected to examine Pb, Zn, and Cd concentrations and their fractionation along a distance gradient from a zinc smelter, and to study the possible effects of Pb, Zn, and Cd accumulation on soil microorganisms by comparing with a reference soil located at a downwind distance of 10 km from the zinc smelter. Soils within 1.5 km of the zinc smelter accumulated high levels of heavy metals Zn （508 mg kg^-1）, Pb （95.6 mg kg^-1）, and Cd （5.98 mg kg^-1） with low ratios of Zn/Cd （59.1-115） and Pb/Cd （12.4-23.4）. Composite pollution indices （CPIs） of surface soils （2.52-15.2） were 3 to 13 times higher than the reference soils. In metal accumulated soils, exchangeable plus carbonate-bound fractions accounted for more than 10% of the total Zn, Pb, and Cd. The saturation degree of metals （SDM） in soils within 1.5 km of the smelter （averaging 1.25） was six times higher than that of the reference soils （0.209）. A smaller soil microbial biomass was found more frequently in metal accumulated soils （85.1-438 μg C g^-1） than in reference soils （497 μg C g^-1）, and a negative correlation （P 〈 0.01） of soil microbial biomass carbon to organic carbon ratio （Cmic/Corg） with SDM was observed. Microbial consumption of carbon sources was more rapid in contaminated soils than in reference soils, and a shift in the substrate utilization pattern was apparent and was negatively correlated with SDM （R = -0.773, P 〈 0.01）. Consequently, dust deposited Pb, Zn, and Cd in soils from zinc smelting were readily mobilized, and were detrimental to soil quality mainly in respect of microbial biomass .
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program (also called 973 Program) of China (Grant No 2007CB407303)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No KZCX2-YW-Q02-03)
文摘Synoptic patterns identified by an automated procedure employing principal- component analysis and a two-stage cluster analysis, and backward trajectory analysis clustered by the HYSPLIT4.9 model were used to examine air quality patterns over¨ Uru¨mqi, China, one of the most heavily polluted cities in the world. Six synoptic patterns representing different atmospheric circulation patterns and air-mass characteristics were classified during the winter heating periods from 2001 to 2008, and seven trajectory clusters representing different paths of air masses arriving at ürümqi were calculated during the winter heating periods from 2005 to 2008. Then air quality was evaluated using these two approaches, and significant variations were found across both synoptic patterns and trajectory clusters. The heaviest air-pollution episodes occurred when ürümqi was either in an extremely cold, strong anticyclone or at the front of a migrating cyclone. Both conditions were characterized by with light winds, cold, wet surface air, and relatively dry upper air. ürümqi was predominately influenced by air masses from the southwest and from local areas. Air pollution index （API） levels were highest for air masses originating from the southwest with a longer path or for the local area, because of transport from semi-desert/desert regions by strong winds and because of local heavy pollution emissions, respectively. The interactions between these two analytical approaches showed that poor diffusion conditions, together with local circulation, enhanced air pollution, besides, regional air-mass transport caused by strong winds contributed to serious air quality under relatively good diffusion conditions.
基金Supported by The Wenzhou Municipal Science and Technology Commission Major Projects Funds,No.20090006
文摘AIM: To assess the value of plasma melatonin in predicting acute pancreatitis when combined with the acute physiology and chronic health evaluation?II?(APACHEII) and bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) scoring systems.METHODS: APACHEII and BISAP scores were calculated for 55 patients with acute physiology (AP) in the first 24 h of admission to the hospital. Additionally, morning (6:00 AM) serum melatonin concentrations were measured on the first day after admission. According to the diagnosis and treatment guidelines for acute pancreatitis in China, 42 patients suffered mild AP (MAP). The other 13 patients developed severe AP (SAP). A total of 45 healthy volunteers were used in this study as controls. The ability of melatonin and the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems to predict SAP was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The optimal melatonin cutoff concentration for SAP patients, based on the ROC curve, was used to classify the patients into either a high concentration group (34 cases) or a low concentration group (21 cases). Differences in the incidence of high scores, according to the APACHEII and BISAP scoring systems, were compared between the two groups.RESULTS: The MAP patients had increased melatonin levels compared to the SAP (38.34 ng/L vs 26.77 ng/L) (P = 0.021) and control patients (38.34 ng/L vs 30.73 ng/L) (P = 0.003). There was no significant difference inmelatoninconcentrations between the SAP group and the control group. The accuracy of determining SAP based on the melatonin level, the APACHEII score and the BISAP score was 0.758, 0.872, and 0.906, respectively, according to the ROC curve. A melatonin concentration ≤ 28.74 ng/L was associated with an increased risk of developing SAP. The incidence of high scores (≥ 3) using the BISAP system was significantly higher in patients with low melatonin concentration (≤ 28.74 ng/L) compared to patients with high melatonin concentration (> 28.74 ng/L) (42.9% vs 14.7%, P = 0.02). The incidence of high APACHEII scores (≥ 10) between the two groups was not significantly different.CONCLUSION: The melatonin concentration is closely related to the severity of AP and the BISAP score. Therefore, we can evaluate the severity of disease by measuring the levels of serum melatonin.
文摘Land use and land cover are essential for maintaining and managing the natural resources on the earth surface. A complex set of economic, demographic, social, cultural, technological, and environmental processes usually result in the change in the land use/land cover change (LULC). Pokhara Metropolitan is influenced mainly by the combination of various driving forces: geographical location, high rate of population growth, economic opportunity, globalization, tourism activities, and political activities. In addition to this, geographically steep slope, rugged terrain, and fragile geomorphic conditions and the frequency of earthquakes, floods, and landslides make the Pokhara Metropolitan region a disaster-prone area. The increment of the population along with infrastructure development of a given territory leads towards the urbanization. It has been rapidly changing due to urbanization, industrialization and internal migration since the 1970s. The landscapes and ground patterns are frequently changing on time and prone to disaster. Here a study has been carried to study on LULC for the last 18 years (2000-2018). The supervised classification on Landsat Imagery was performed and verified the classification through computing the error matrix. Besides, the water bodies and vegetation area were extracted through the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDWI) respectively. This research shows that during the last 18 years the agricultural areas diminishing by 15.66% while urban area is increasing by 13.2%. This research is beneficial for preparing the plan and policy in the sustainable development of Pokhara Metropolitan.
