Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are assessed.While the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 outputs.

Similarity evaluation model for the internal defect detection of strip steel

An internal defect meter is an instrument to detect the internal inclusion defects of cold-rolled strip steel.The detection accuracy of the equipment can be evaluated based on the similarity of the multiple detection data obtained for the same steel coil.Based on the cosine similarity model and eigenvalue matrix model,a comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the weighted average of similarity is proposed.Results show that the new method is consistent with and can even replace artificial evaluation to realize the automatic evaluation of strip defect detection results.

Training and Implementation of Subjective Questions Scoring System Based on the Baidu Qianfan Model Platform

Leveraging the Baidu Qianfan model platform,this paper designs and implements a highly efficient and accurate scoring system for subjective questions,focusing primarily on questions in the field of computer network technology.The system enhances the foundational model by utilizing Qianfan’s training tools and integrating advanced techniques,such as supervised fine-tuning.In the data preparation phase,a comprehensive collection of subjective data related to computer network technology is gathered,cleaned,and labeled.During model training and evaluation,optimal hyperparameters and tuning strategies are applied,resulting in a model capable of scoring with high accuracy.Evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model performs well across multiple dimensions-content,expression,and development scores-yielding results comparable to those of manual scoring.

Evaluation Model of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources Based on Standardized Indices of Radial Basis Function

[Objective] The aim was to study on RBF model about evaluation on carrying capacity of water resources based on standardized indices. [Method] The indices were transformed and the averages of standard values in different levels were taken as the standardized values of components of central vectors for basic functions of RBF hidden nodes. Hence, the basic functions are suitable for most indices, simplifying expression and calculation of basic functions. [Result] RBF models concluded through Monkey-king Genetic Algorithm with weights optimization are used in evaluation on water carrying capacity in three districts in Changwu County in Shaanxi Province, which were in consistent with that through fuzzy evaluation. [Conclusion] RBF, simple and practical, is universal and popular.

Evaluation model for freeway incident management system

In order to evaluate the general situation and find special problems of the freeway incident management system, an evaluation model is proposed. First, the expert appraisal approach is used to select the primary evaluation index. As a result, 81 indices and the hierarchical structures of the index such as the object layer, the sub-object layer, the criterion layer and the index layer are determined. Then, based on the fuzzy characteristics of each index layer, the analytical hierarchy process（AHP）and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are applied to generate the weight and the satisfaction of the index and the criterion layers. When analyzing the relationship between the sub-object layer and the object layer, it is easy to find that the number of sub-objects is too large and sub-objects are significantly redundant. The partial least square （PLS） is proposed to solve the problems. Finally, an application example, whose result has already been accepted and employed as the indication of a new project in improving incident management, is introduced and the result verifies the feasibility and efficiency of the model.

Residential environment index system and evaluation model established by subjective and objective methods

In this research, the residential environment index system and evaluation model were established by means of subjective and objective methods. The methodology for establishing the evaluation system for residential environment was first analyzed; then the subjective evaluation data-base was established by questionnaire survey; and at the same time, the objective evaluation data-base was constructed by Geographic Information System (GIS); and then the related equation system between subjective and objective system was developed by multiple regression analysis. This research could benefit evaluation of the residential environment quality for various purposes, and also provide important rudimentary data-base for the development and improvement of residential environment for officials. Furthermore, the index system and evaluation model established in this research could construct a strong relation between subjective evaluation and objective data; and thus could provide a comprehensive, efficient and effective methodology for the evaluation of residential environment.

Catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model for water and mud inrush and its application in karst tunnels

This paper presents a risk evaluation model of water and mud inrush for tunnel excavation in karst areas.The factors affecting the probabilities of water and mud inrush in karst tunnels are investigated to define the dangerousness of this geological disaster.The losses that are caused by water and mud inrush are taken into consideration to account for its harmfulness.Then a risk evaluation model based on the dangerousness-harmfulness evaluation indicator system is constructed,which is more convincing in comparison with the traditional methods.The catastrophe theory is used to evaluate the risk level of water and mud inrush and it has great advantage in handling problems involving discontinuous catastrophe processes.To validate the proposed approach,the Qiyueshan tunnel of Yichang-Wanzhou Railway is taken as an example in which four target segments are evaluated using the risk evaluation model.Finally,the evaluation results are compared with the excavation data,which shows that the risk levels predicted by the proposed approach are in good agreements with that observed in engineering.In conclusion,the catastrophe theory-based risk evaluation model is an efficient and effective approach for water and mud inrush in karst tunnels.

Application of Projection Pursuit Evaluation Model Based on Real-Coded Accelerating Genetic Algorithm in Evaluating Wetland Soil Quality Variations in the Sanjiang Plain, China

A new technique of dimension reduction named projection pursuit is applied to model and evaluatewetland soil quality variations in the Sanjiang Plain, Helongjiang Province, China. By adopting the im-proved real-coded accelerating genetic algorithm (RAGA), the projection direction is optimized and multi-dimensional indexes are converted into low-dimensional space. Classification of wetland soils and evaluationof wetland soil quality variations are realized by pursuing optimum projection direction and projection func-tion value. Therefore, by adopting this new method, any possible human interference can be avoided andsound results can be achieved in researching quality changes and classification of wetland soils.

Assessment of Indices of Temperature Extremes Simulated by Multiple CMIP5 Models over China

Given that climate extremes in China might have serious regional and global consequences, an increasing number of studies are examining temperature extremes in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） models. This paper investigates recent changes in temperature extremes in China using 25 state-of-the-art global climate models participating in CMIP5. Thirteen indices that represent extreme temperature events were chosen and derived by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including those representing the intensity （absolute indices and threshold indices）, duration （duration indices）, and frequency （percentile indices） of extreme temperature. The overall performance of each model is summarized by a ＂portrait＂ diagram based on relative root-mean-square error, which is the RMSE relative to the median RMSE of all models, revealing the multi-model ensemble simulation to be better than individual model for most indices. Compared with observations, the models are able to capture the main features of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature during 1986-2005. Overall, the CMIP5 models are able to depict the observed indices well, and the spatial structure of the ensemble result is better for threshold indices than frequency indices. The spread amongst the CMIP5 models in different subregions for intensity indices is small and the median CMIP5 is close to observations; however, for the duration and frequency indices there can be wide disagreement regarding the change between models and observations in some regions. The model ensemble also performs well in reproducing the observational trend of temperature extremes. All absolute indices increase over China during 1961-2005.

The North Atlantic Oscillation Simulated by Versions 2 and 4 of IAP/ LASG GOALS Model

The capabilities of two versions of the Global–Ocean–Atmosphere–Land–System model (i.e. GOALS–2 and GOALS–4) developed at State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), are validated in terms of the simulations of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. The results show that both GOALS–2 and GOALS–4 exhibit a realistic NAO signal associated with relatively reasonable spatial patterns of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, and precipitation. Generally speaking, the associated patterns of precipitation in GOALSs match better with the observation in comparison with the case of surface temperature. For the imprint of NAO on the ocean, or perhaps a coupling between the two fluids, the associated tripole patterns of the North Atlantic SST anomaly are presented distinctly in GOALS–2, for GOALS-4 however, this is not the case. Spatially, the models’ main deficiencies appear to be that the simulated Icelandic lows shift northward apparently, which in turn result in the blemish of GOALSs in reproducing the accompanied surface wind anomalies. For the interannual and even longer time scale variations of DJF sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Atlantic region, GOALSs reproduce the center with the strongest variability rationally, but the intensities are far weaker than the observation. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - Model evaluation - GOALS model This study was jointly supported by the National key Project (Grant No. 96-908-02-03), the Excel-lent National Key Laboratory Research Project (Grant NO. 49823002), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) under grant “ Bai Ren Ji Hua” for “ Validation of Coupled Climate Models”, and IAP innova-tion fund (No.8-1204).The authors gratefully acknowledge Dv. Jin Xuingze, Mr. Liu Xiying in IAP /LASG, and Dr. Gong Daoyi in Geophysical Department of Peking University for providing ardent help.

A novel model for cost performance evaluation of pulverized coal injected into blast furnace based on effective calorific value

The combustion process of pulverized coal injected into blast furnace involves a lot of physical and chemical reactions. Based on the combustion behaviors of pulverized coal, the conception of coal effective calorific value representing the actual thermal energy provided for blast furnace was proposed. A cost performance evaluation model of coal injection was built up for the optimal selection of various kinds of coal based on effective calorific value. The model contains two indicators: coal effective calorific value which has eight sub-indicators and coal injection cost which includes four sub-indicators. In addition, the calculation principle and application of cost performance evaluation model in a Chinese large-scale iron and steel company were comprehensively introduced. The evaluation results finally confirm that this novel model is of great significance to the optimal selection of blast furnace pulverized coal.

A Fast Version of LASG/IAP Climate System Model and Its 1000-year Control Integration

A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics （LASG）/Institute of Atmospheric Physics （IAP） climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG （GAMIL）, with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic component LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model （LICOM）, land component Common Land Model （CLM）, and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model （NCAR CCSM2）, as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model （FGOALS_g）. The parameterizations of physical and dynamical processes of the atmospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for longterm and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation＇s mean climate and variability are evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a ＂double ITCZ＂ （Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone） associated with a westward extension of the equatorial eastern Pacific cold tongue. The sea ice extent is acceptable but has a higher concentration. The strength of Atlantic meridional overturning is 27.5 Sv. Evidence from the 600-year simulation suggests a modulation of internal variability on ENSO frequency, since both regular and irregular oscillations of ENSO are found during the different time periods of the long-term simulation.

Evaluation model of landslide hazards induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using strong motion data

Landslides induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the Longmenshan area were relatively well instrumented, which makes it possible to investigate the landslides using ground motion records. Firstly, this paper analyzes the data from Wenchuan earthquake on both regional and local site scale. The analyses show that the Newmark accumulative displacement calculated from the ground motion recorded in a particular geological hazard zone corresponds to the hazard intensity in that zone; the larger the displacement, the more serious the geologic hazard. The calculated result also shows that the displacement is related to the Arias intensity, which represents the total energy released during the earthquake at the observation site. Secondly, this paper constructs an evaluation model of Newmark displacement calculated with Arias intensities to estimate the subsequent slope failure resulting from the earthquake. The calculated results based on the model fit well with the distribution of actual landslides, suggesting that this method is useful for hazard evaluation. Therefore, this type of model can be used for estimating regional-scale distribution of earthquake-induced landslides and their associated hazards immediately after an earthquake.

Assessment of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance for extreme temperature in China

Using the historical simulations from 27 models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5)and 27 models in phase 6(CMIP6),the authors evaluated the differences between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models in simulating the climate mean of extreme temperature over China through comparison with observations during 1979–2005.The CMIP6 models reproduce well the spatial distribution of annual maxima of daily maximum temperature(TXx),annual minima of daily minimum temperature(TNn),and frost days(FD).The model spread in CMIP6 is reduced relative to CMIP5 for some temperature indices,such as TXx,warm spell duration index(WSDI),and warm days(TX90 p).The multimodel median ensembles also capture the observed trend of extreme temperature.However,the CMIP6 models still have low skill in capturing TX90 p and cold nights(TN10 p)and have obvious cold biases or warm biases over the Tibetan Plateau.The ability of individual models varies for different indices,although some models outperform the others in terms of the average of all indices considered for different models.By comparing different version models from the same organization,the updated CMIP6 models show no significant difference from their counterparts from CMIP5 for some models.Compared with individual models,the median ensembles show better agreement with the observations for temperature indices and their means.

FUZZY COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL OF ECOLOGICAL DEMONSTRATION AREA

Ecological demonstration area (EDA) is an authorized nomination, which should be assessed from several aspects, including ecological, social, environmental, economic ones and so on. It is difficult to advance an exact developing level index of EDA due to its indicator system’s complexity and disequilibrium. In this paper, a framework of indicators was set to evaluate, monitor and examine the comprehensive level of ecological demonstration area (EDA). Fuzzy logic method was used to develop the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model (FCEM), which could quantitatively reveal the developing degree of EDA. Huiji District of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, one of the 9th group of national EDAs, was taken as a study case. The framework of FCEM for the integrated system included six subsystems, which were social, economic, ecological, rural, urban and accessorial description ones. The research would be valuable in the comprehensive quantitative evaluation of EDA and would work as a guide in the construction practices of Huiji ecological demonstration area.

Optimizing Parameters of CSM-CERES-Maize Model to Improve Simulation Performance of Maize Growth and Nitrogen Uptake in Northeast China

Crop models can be useful tools ibr optimizing fertilizer management for a targeted crop yield while minimizing nutrient losses. In this paper, the parameters of the decision support system for agrotechnology transfer （DSSAT）-CERES-Maize were optimized using a new method to provide a better simulation of maize （Zea mays L.） growth and N upfake in response to different nitrogen application rates. Field data were collected from a 5 yr field experiment （2006-2010） on a Black soil （Typic hapludoll） in Gongzhuling, Jilin Province, Northeast China. After cultivar calibration, the CERES-Maize model was able to simulate aboveground biomass and crop yield of in the evaluation data set （n-RMSE=5.0-14.6%）, but the model still over-estimated aboveground N uptake （i.e., with E values from -4.4 to -21.3 kg N ha-~）. By analyzing DSSAT equation, N stress coefficient for changes in concentration with growth stage （CTCNP2） is related to N uptake. Further sensitivity analysis of the CTCNP2 showed that the DSSAT model simulated maize nitrogen uptake more precisely after the CTCNP2 coefficient was adjusted to the field site condition. The results indicated that in addition to calibrating 6 coefficients of maize cultivars, radiation use efficiency （RUE）, growing degree days for emergence （GDDE）, N stress coefficient, CTCNP2, and soil fertility factor （SLPF） also need to be calibrated in order to simulate aboveground biomass, yield and N uptake correctly. Independent validation was conducted using 2008-2010 experiments and the good agreement between the simulated and the measured results indicates that the DSSAT CERES-Maize model could be a useful tool for predicting maize production in Northeast China.

AModel for the Optimization of the Shale Gas HorizontalWell Section Based on the Combination of Different Weighting Methods in the Frame of the Game Theory

Existing“evaluation indicators”are selected and combined to build a model to support the optimization of shale gas horizontal wells.Towards this end,different“weighting methods”,including AHP and the so-called entropy method,are combined in the frame of the game theory.Using a relevant test case for the implementation of the model,it is shown that the horizontal section of the considered well is in the middle sweet spot area with good physical properties and fracturing ability.In comparison with the FSI(flow scanner Image)gas production profile,the new model seems to display better abilities for the optimization of horizontal wells.

Optimization of CO_2 separation technologies for Chinese refineries based on a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

This study aims at determining the optimal CO2 separation technology for Chinese refineries, based on current available technologies, by the method of comprehensive evaluation. Firstly, according to the characteristics of flue gas from Chinese refineries, three feasible CO2 separation technologies are selected. These are pressure swing adsorption （PSA）, chemical absorption （CA）, and membrane absorption （MA）. Secondly, an economic assessment of these three techniques is carried out in accordance with cash flow analysis. The results show that these three techniques all have economic feasibility and the PSA technique is the best. Finally, to further optimize the three techniques, a two-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is established, including economic, technological, and environmental factors. Considering all the factors, PSA is optimal for Chinese refineries, followed by CA and MA. Therefore, to reduce Chinese refineries carbon emission, it is suggested that CO2 should be captured from off-gases using PSA.

A quick evaluation model for CO_2 flooding and sequestration

CO2 flooding not only triggers an increase in oil production,but also reduces the amount of CO2 released to the atmosphere （by storing it permanently in the formations）.It is one of the best ways to use and store CO2.This paper firstly selects the key factors after analyzing the factors influencing the CO2 storage potential in the formations and oil recovery,and then introduces a series of dimensionless variables to describe reservoir characteristics.All influencing factors with varying values are calculated through a Box-Behnken experimental design.The results are interpreted by a response surface method,and then a quick screening model is obtained to evaluate the oil recovery and CO2 storage potential for an oil reservoir.Based on the evaluation model,sensitivity analysis of each factor is carried out.Finally,research on CO2 sequestration and flooding in a typical reservoir indicates that the evaluation model fits well with the numerical simulation,which proves that the evaluation model can provide criteria for screening attractive candidate reservoirs for CO2 sequestration and flooding.

Using the DSSAT model to simulate wheat yield and soil organic carbon under a wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain

Crop modelling can facilitate researchers＇ ability to understand and interpret experimental results, and to diagnose yield gaps. In this paper, the Decision Support Systems for Agrotechnology Transfer 4.6 （DSSAT） model together with the CENTURT soil model were employed to investigate the effect of low nitrogen （N） input on wheat （Triticum aestivum L.） yield, grain N concentration and soil organic carbon （SOC） in a long-term experiment （19 years） under a wheat-maize （Zea mays L.） rotation at Changping, Beijing, China. There were two treatments including NO （no N application） and N150 （150 kg N ha-1） before wheat and maize planting, with phosphorus （P） and potassium （K） basal fertilizers applied as 75 kg P205 ha-1 and 37.5 kg K^O ha-~, respectively. The DSSAT-CENTURY model was able to satisfactorily simulate measured wheat grain yield and grain N concentration at NO, but could not simulate these parameters at N150, or SOC in either N treatment, Model simulation and field measurement showed that N application （N150） increased wheat yield compared to no N application （NO）. The results indicated that inorganic fertilizer application at the rates used did not maintain crop yield and SOC levels. It is suggested that if the DSSAT is calibrated carefully, it can be a useful tool for assessing and predicting wheat yield, grain N concentration, and SOC trends under wheat-maize cropping systems.