Unequal Distribution of Innovation Efforts for Neglected Tropical Diseases: The Role of Funding Evaluation Criteria

Background: International research and innovation efforts for neglected tropical diseases have increased in recent decades due to disparities in overall health research funding in relation to global burden of disease. However, within the field of neglected tropical diseases some seem far more neglected than others. In this research the aim is to investigate the distribution of resources and efforts, as well as the mechanisms that underpin funding allocation for neglected tropical diseases. Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted to establish a comprehensive overview of known indicators for innovation efforts related to a wide range of neglected tropical diseases. Articles were selected based on a subjective evaluation of their relevance, the presence of original data, and the breadth of their scope. This was followed by thirteen in-depth open-ended interviews with representatives of private, public and philanthropic funding organizations, concerning evaluation criteria for funding research proposals. Results: The findings reveal a large difference in the extent to which the individual diseases are neglected with notable differences between absolute and relative efforts. Criteria used in the evaluation of research proposals relate to potential impact, the probability of success and strategic fit. Private organizations prioritize strategic fit and economic impact;philanthropic organizations prioritize short-term societal impact;and public generally prioritize the probability of success by accounting for follow-up funding and involvement of industry. Funding decisions of different types of organizations are highly interrelated. Conclusions: This study shows that the evaluation of funding proposals introduces and retains unequal funding distribution, reinforcing the relative neglect of diseases. Societal impact is the primary rationale for funding but application of it as a funding criterion is associated with significant challenges. Furthermore, current application of evaluation criteria leads to a primary focus on short-term impact. Through current practice, the relatively most neglected diseases will remain so, and a long-term strategy is needed to resolve this.

Evaluation of AVNRT & AVRT by Different Criteria: Old & New

The two most frequent causes of paroxysmal SVT are atrioventricular tachycardia (AVRT) and atrioventricular nodal re-entrant tachycardia (AVNRT). The purpose of this study was to assess the diagnostic efficacy of traditional and newly proposed ECG criteria in the identification of Avnrt and Avrt. Aim of the Study: The aim of this study was to evaluate Atrioventricular Nodal Reentrant Tachycardia (AVNRT) and Atrioventricular Re-entrant Tachycardia (AVRT) using both traditional and novel criteria. Methods: This prospective observational study was conducted at the Electrophysiology Unit, Department of Cardiology, National Institute of Cardiovascular Diseases (NICVD) in Dhaka, from February 2019 to January 2020. A total of 62 patients with Supraventricular Tachycardia (SVT) undergoing electrophysiology study (EPS) were included. Standard ECG criteria were applied for the differential diagnosis, and electrophysiological diagnoses were made using established criteria. Statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and appropriate tests, was performed using SPSS 23.0. Result: In our study of 62 patients with Supraventricular Tachycardia (SVT), we found that 66.1% had AVNRT and 33.9% had AVRT. The mean age in AVNRT was higher than AVRT (41.3 ± 9.7 vs. 38.5 ± 14.3, p = 0.36) with statistically no significant difference, with similar gender distribution between AVNRT and AVRT groups. Classical AVNRT criteria were present in 30.6% of patients, and 45.2% showed a Pseudo R' wave in aVR. Additionally, 30.6% had an RP interval ≥100ms, more prevalent in AVRT patients (66.7%). Conclusion: Integrating traditional and novel criteria, including lead aVR analysis, enhances the electrocardiographic diagnosis of AVNRT and AVRT, offering a pathway to refined patient care.

King's College criteria and the Clichy-Villejuif criteria require adjustments for assessing acute liver failure due to yellow fever

BACKGROUND Acute liver failure(ALF)is a severe condition characterized by rapid deterioration of liver function in individuals without preexisting liver disease.Liver transplantation(LT)is the most impactful treatment.Yellow fever(YF)is an infectious disease that primarily affects the liver and has a high mortality rate.However,LT can be a viable option for treating rare cases with extensive liver involvement.However,the criteria for assessing the severity of ALF and determining the indications for transplantation have not been specifically validated for cases caused by YF.AIM To present necessary adjustments to established scoring systems for ALF secondary to YF.METHODS This was an observational,retrospective,single-center study.Fourteen consecutive patients with confirmed ALF due to YF were monitored in the intensive care unit by a specialized liver transplant team during a three-month epidemic outbreak in Brazil.During hospitalization,general supportive therapeutic measures were implemented,and the patients were regularly assessed using the King's College criteria and the Clichy-Villejuif criteria to determine the severity of liver failure.LT is considered a viable measure for patients with signs of end-stage liver failure.RESULTS Eight of 14(57%)patients developed severe neurological alterations within the first 96 hours after hospital admission.Four patients underwent emergency LT,and despite a moderate viral infection of the graft after transplantation,the 5-year survival rate was 50%.Although the King's College criteria and the Clichy-Villejuif criteria are the main scoring systems for ALF,they are insufficient for predicting the risk of mortality in this context,primarily because of low serum bilirubin levels in the final stage of the disease and significant disparities between coagulation abnormalities and patient severity.CONCLUSION To ensure good applicability in cases of YF-induced ALF,the authors suggest adaptations to the King's College and Clichy-Villejuif criteria.

Based on non-targeted metabolomics for differential components screening of Rosae Chinensis Flos and Rosae Rugosae Flos and their quality evaluation

Background:Rosa chinensis Jacq.and Rosa rugosa Thunb.are not only of ornamental value,but also edible flowers and the flower buds have been listed in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia as traditional medicines.The two plants have some differences in efficacy,but the flower buds are easily confused for similar traits.In addition,large-scale cultivation of ornamental rose flowers may lead to a decrease in the effective components of medicinal roses.Therefore,it is necessary to study the chemical composition and make quality evaluation of Rosae Chinensis Flos(Yueji)and Rosae Rugosae Flos(Meigui).Methods:In this study,40 batches of samples including Meigui and Yueji from different regions in China were collected to establish high-performance liquid chromatography fingerprints.Then,the fingerprints data was analyzed using principal component analysis,hierarchical cluster analysis,and partial least squares discriminant analysis analysis chemometrics to obtain information on intergroup differences,and non-targeted metabolomic techniques were applied to identify and compare chemical compositions of samples which were chosen from groups with large differences.Differential compounds were screened by orthogonal partial least-squares discriminant analysis and S-plot,and finally multi-component quantification was performed to comprehensively evaluate the quality of Yueji and Meigui.Results:The similarity between the fingerprints of 40 batches roses and the reference print R was 0.73 to 0.93,indicating that there were similarities and differences between the samples.Through principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of fingerprints data,the samples from different origins and varieties were intuitively divided into four groups.Partial least-squares discriminant analysis analysis showed that Meigui and Yueji cluster into two categories and the model was reliable.A total of 89 compounds were identified by high resolution mass spectrometry,mainly were flavonoids and flavonoid glycosides,as well as phenolic acids.Eight differential components were screened out by orthogonal partial least-squares discriminant analysis and S-plot analysis.Quantitative analyses of the eight compounds,including gallic acid,ellagic acid,hyperoside,isoquercitrin,etc.,showed that Yueji was generally richer in phenolic acids and flavonoids than Meigui,and the quality of Yueji from Shandong and Hebei was better.It is worth noting that Xinjiang rose is rich in various components,which is worth focusing on more in-depth research.Conclusion:In this study,the fingerprints of Meigui and Yueji were established.The chemical components information of roses was further improved based on non-targeted metabolomics and mass spectrometry technology.At the same time,eight differential components of Meigui and Yueji were screened out and quantitatively analyzed.The research results provided a scientific basis for the quality control and rational development and utilization of Rosae Chinensis Flos and Rosae Rugosae Flos,and also laid a foundation for the study of their pharmacodynamic material basis.

Future of non-invasive graft evaluation:A systematic review of proteomics in kidney transplantation

BACKGROUND Despite the developments in the field of kidney transplantation,the already existing diagnostic techniques for patient monitoring are considered insufficient.Protein biomarkers that can be derived from modern approaches of proteomic analysis of liquid biopsies(serum,urine)represent a promising innovation in the monitoring of kidney transplant recipients.AIM To investigate the diagnostic utility of protein biomarkers derived from proteomics approaches in renal allograft assessment.METHODS A systematic review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines,based on research results from the PubMed and Scopus databases.The primary focus was on evaluating the role of biomarkers in the non-invasive diagnosis of transplant-related com-plications.Eligibility criteria included protein biomarkers and urine and blood samples,while exclusion criteria were language other than English and the use of low resolution and sensitivity methods.The selected research articles,were categorized based on the biological sample,condition and methodology and the significantly and reproducibly differentiated proteins were manually selected and extracted.Functional and network analysis of the selected proteins was performed.RESULTS In 17 included studies,58 proteins were studied,with the cytokine CXCL10 being the most investigated.Biological pathways related to immune response and fibrosis have shown to be enriched.Applications of biomarkers for the assessment of renal damage as well as the prediction of short-term and long-term function of the graft were reported.Overall,all studies have shown satisfactory diagnostic accuracy of proteins alone or in combination with conventional methods,as far as renal graft assessment is concerned.CONCLUSION Our review suggests that protein biomarkers,evaluated in specific biological fluids,can make a significant contribution to the timely,valid and non-invasive assessment of kidney graft.

Development of Brief Image Quality Evaluation Criteria for Digital OrthoPantomography （OPG） Images in Dental Radiography

An OPG （orthopantmography） is an extra-oral radiographic imaging method which provides a panoramic or wide view of both jaws and teeth on a single image. Digital OPG images provide high contrast with more details of the dentitions. The research main objective was to produce sophisticated and effective criteria that can be used by any radiographer with sound knowledge to identify common errors of digital OPG images and to increase the concern of high frequency of errors to minimize them to give an optimum image quality. The study was designed as retrospective cross sectional study. Hundred digital OPG images are evaluated by three qualified radiographers who had dental radiography experience and four student radiographers. Paired t-test was used to see the difference between the responses of radiographers and student radiographers. Kruskal-Wallis Test was used to see difference between each evaluator. Possible errors of OPG were divided into four main categories （identification, artifact, anatomical coverage and patient positioning）. Each main category consists of sub-categories. Values of subcategories were given according to their importance to get the total of 100% for each main category. The results showed that there is no significant difference between radiographers and student radiographers’ responses and also between each evaluator. Hence it shows that the criteria were an easy understandable and user-friendly tool. And results showed the frequent error category was loss of anatomical coverage and frequent error was absence of positioning the tongue against the palate.

Comparison of neutron energy spectrum unfolding methods and evaluation of rationality criteria

The neutron energy spectrum was measured using a Bonner sphere spectrometer at six locations inside the containment vessel of a nuclear reactor at the Qinshan nuclear power plant. The structures of the neutron spectra obtained by the maximum entropy, iteration, and genetic algorithm methods were consistent with one another and could be interpreted as the spectral superposition of different energy regions. The characteristic parameters of the neutron spectrum, including the fluence rate,average energy, and neutron ambient dose equivalent rate H^(*)(10), were in good agreement among the three methods. In addition, an LB6411 neutron ambient dose equivalent meter was employed to obtain the H^(*)(10) directly for comparison.These findings indicate that neutron spectrum unfolding methods can be used to overcome the problems associated with the response functions of dosimeters to provide more accurate H^(*)(10) values. In this study, the following three evaluation criteria were systematically addressed to ensure the accuracy of the unfolded spectra: count rates of the inverse solutions,neutron spectrum structures, and comparison of key parameters.

Immune response evaluation criteria in solid tumors for assessment of atypical responses after immunotherapy

In 2017,immune response evaluation criteria in solid tumors(iRECIST)were introduced to validate radiologic and clinical interpretations and to better analyze tumor’s response to immunotherapy,considering the different time of following and response,between this new therapy compared to the standard one.However,even if the iRECIST are worldwide accepted,to date,different aspects should be better underlined and well reported,especially in clinical practice.Clinical experience has demonstrated that in a non-negligible percentage of patients,it is challenging to determine the correct category of response(stable disease,progression disease,partial or complete response),and consequently,to define which is the best management for those patients.Approaching radiological response in patients who underwent immunotherapy,a new uncommon kind of target lesions behavior was found.This phenomenon is mainly due to the different mechanisms of action of immunotherapeutic drug.Therefore,new groups of response have been described in clinical practice,defined as“atypical responses,”and categorized into three new groups:pseudoprogression,hyperprogression,and dissociated response.This review summarizes and reports these patterns,helping clinicians and radiologists get used to atypical responses,in order to identify patients that respond best to treatment.

Siting of Dark Sky Reserves in China Based on Multi-source Spatial Data and Multiple Criteria Evaluation Method

With the rapid development of population and urbanization and the progress of lighting technology, the influence of artificial light sources has increased.In this context, the problem of light pollution has attracted wide attention.Previous studies have revealed that light pollution can affect biological living environments, human physical and mental health, astronomical observations and many other aspects.Therefore, organizations internationally have begun to advocate for measures to prevent light pollution, many of which are recognized by the International Dark-Sky Association(IDA).In addition to improving public awareness, legal protections, technical treatments and other means, the construction of Dark Sky Reserves(DSR) has proven to be an effective preventive measure.So far, as a pioneer practice in this field, the IDA has identified 11 DSRs worldwide.Based on the DA requirements for DSRs, this paper utilizes NPP-VIIRS nighttime light data and other multi-source spatial data to analyze possible DSR sites in China.The land of China was divided into more than ten thousand 30 km × 30 km fishnets, and constraint and suitable conditions were designated, respectively, as light and cloud conditions, and scale, traffic and attractiveness conditions.Using a multiple criteria evaluation, 1443 fishnets were finally selected as most suitable sites for the construction of DSRs.Results found that less than 25% of China is not subject to light pollution, and less than 13% is suitable for DSR construction, primarily in western and northern areas, including Tibet, Xinjiang, Qinghai, Gansu and Inner Mongolia.

Shale Gas Play Screening and Evaluation Criteria

The uniqueness of shale gas plays is contrasted with conventional oil and gas exploration. Based on our ten year history in shale gas exploration, a practical 17 point list of criteria to use for screening shale gas projects and ranking that encompasses geoscience, geochemistry, reservoir engineering, drilling, completions and production operations is developed and explained. Other considerations that will impact shale gas development are identified and discussed. Some key methodologies to incorporate in the evaluation process are also proposed. The outcome of this proposed screening process, if rigorously applied, should quickly identify the projects that have the most likely chance for success for recommendation to management. Examples from active shale gas plays in the United States are used to support these criteria and references to relevant recent publications and presentations are provided.

Evaluation of the Sensitivity and Specificity of the New Clinical Diagnostic and Classification Criteria for Kashin-Beck Disease,an Endemic Osteoarthritis,in China

This study aimed to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the new clinical diagnostic and classification criteria for Kashin-Beck disease （KBD） using six clinical markers： flexion of the distal part of fingers, deformed fingers, enlarged finger joints, shortened fingers, squat down, and dwarfism. One-third of the total population in Linyou County was sampled by stratified random sampling.

An assessment of coal pillar system stability criteria based on a mechanistic evaluation of the interaction between coal pillars and the overburden

Coal pillar design has historically assigned a factor of safety(Fo S) or stability factor(SF) according to their estimated strength and the assumed overburden load acting on them. Acceptable Fo S values have been assigned based on past mining experience or a statistical link between Fo S and probability of failure(Po F). Pillar width-to-height(w/h) ratio has long been established as having a material influence on both pillar strength and its potential failure mode. However, there has been significant disagreement on using both factor of safety(Fo S) and w/h as part of pillar system stability criterion, as compared to using Fo S in isolation. This paper will argue that there are valid technical reasons to bring w/h ratio into system stability criteria(other than its influence on pillar strength), as it is related to the post-failure stiffness of the pillar, as measured in situ, and its interaction with overburden stiffness. When overburden stiffness is also brought into pillar system stability considerations, two issues emerge. The first is the width-todepth(W/D) ratio of the panel and whether it is sub-critical or super-critical from a surface subsidence perspective. The second relates to a re-evaluation of pillar Fo S based on whether the pillar is in an elastic or non-elastic(i.e., post-yield) state in its as-designed condition, as this is relevant to maintaining overburden stiffness at the highest possible level. The significance of the model is the potential to maximise both reserve recovery and mining efficiencies without any discernible increase in geotechnical risk, particularly in thick seams and higher depth of cover mining situations. At a time when mining economics are, at best, marginal, removing potentially unnecessary design conservatism is of interest to all mine operators and is an important topic for discussion amongst the geotechnical community.

Evaluation of alternative criteria for determining the optimal location of RWIS stations

This article presents a comprehensive framework for determining the location of road weather information system （RWIS） stations over a regional road network. In the proposed methodology, the region is divided into a grid of equal-sized zones which are considered as the minimum spatial unit for allocating a candidate set of RWIS stations. These zones are ranked according to a set of pre-specified criteria that reflect the needs for, and potential benefits from, real-time RWIS, including road surface temperature variability, precipitation, network traffic, and collision patterns. A case study based on the existing RWIS network in the province of Ontario was conducted to illustrate the major features of the proposed method and evaluate the implications of alternative loca- tion selection criteria. The findings of the study suggest that it is feasible to develop a systematic process for locating RWIS stations using an integrated location criterion to capture multiple factors being considered in prac- tice. The study has also revealed the need to establish quantitative models for estimating the benefit of real-time information from RWIS stations, which is the foundation of a cost-benefit-based RWIS location optimization model.

Urban Construction Land Suitability Evaluation Based on Improved Multi-criteria Evaluation Based on GIS(MCE-GIS): Case of New Hefei City,China

Urban construction land suitability evaluation （UCLSE） is a complex system engineering and the basis for rational use of the limited urban land resources in China. It has an important practical value on urban construction land use planning and management from the angle of methodology. As a widely used technique, traditional multi-criteria evaluation based on GIS （MCE-GIS）, is not suitable for UCLSE. This study develops an improved MCE-GIS method which could be more suitable for UCLSE based on urban complex ecological system theory and the summary of the shortcomings of traditional MCE-GIS. The improvements include three aspects： a composite evaluation index system rather than natural indexes alone, an index weight calculated by using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process （AHP） method rather than the common AHP method, and the integrated overlay rule, which includes selecting the minimum value, weighted linear combination （WLC） and simple summation. The main advantage of this improved technique is that it can make UCLSE more comprehensive, more operational and more reasonable. It can provide a scientific basis for decision making in the planning and management of urban construction land use. The improved MCE-GIS system has been adopted in the New Hefei City, Anhui Province, China. Based on the results of UCLSE in New Hefei, three functional areas including construction-appropriate areas, construction-restricted areas and construction-forbidden areas could be worked out, in which 36.90% of the total study area could be developed as urban construction land and the remaining 63.10% should be protected as reserves land or as ecological land. Furthermore, the results can orovide scientific decision suooort for spatial planning and eco-environment nrotection in New Hefei.

Using Cellular Automata-Markov Analysis and Multi Criteria Evaluation for Predicting the Shape of the Dead Sea

In order to make a rational prediction of the Dead Sea shape, data were prepared for suitability map creation using Markov Chain analysis and Multi Criteria Evaluation (MCE). Then, Markov Cellular Automata model and spatial statistics were used in prediction and validation processes. The validation process shows a standard Kappa index of 0.9545 which means a strong relation between the model and reality. The predicted shapes of years 2020, 2030 and 2040 follow the same conditions from 1984 to 2010. The predicted areas of 2020, 2030 and 2040 are 610, 591 and 574 km2 which are considered a logical extension of the trend from 1984 till 2010. This study can be used as an environmental alert in order to keep the Dead Sea alive. Moreover, Markov-Cellular Automata model can be used to predict closed seas as the Dead Sea from remote sensed data.

EVALUATION OF INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA (2002) FOR PRIMARY SJGREN'S SYNDROME IN CHINESE PATIENTS

Objective To evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of international classification criteria （2002） for primary Sjogren＇s syndrome （pSS） and the role of lower lip biopsy in diagnosis of pSS in Chinese patients. Mothoda Patients who were diagnosed by the experts/rheumatologists as pSS during 1990-2002 from the Department of Rheumatology, Peking Union Medical College Hospital were retrospectively collected as experimental group. Patients who were diagnosed as non-pSS connective tissue diseases or non-connective tissue diseases served as control group. Those with a history of head-neck radiation, hepatitis C virus infection, AIDS, lymphoma, sarcoidosis, graft versus host disease （GVHD）, and anti-acetylcholine drug use were exempted. Both groups were required to complete questionnaires about symptoms such as dry eyes and dry mouth, and complete the objective tests of keratoconjunctivitis and xerostomia including Schirmer test, corneal staining, unstimulated salivary flow, sialography, lower lip biopsy, and antinuclear antibodies （including anti-SSA/SSB antibodies） test. Results A total of 330 pSS patients were included in experimental group and 185 non-pSS patients in control group. The mean age of both groups matched （47.8 ± 10.9 years vs. 46.2±13.6 years, P 〉 0.05）. The sensitivities of the criteria in pSS patients with lower lip biopsy and in pSS patients without lower lip biopsy were 89.2% and 87.2%, respectively; the overall sensitivity was 88.5%. The specificity was 97.3%. A total of 11.3% pSS patients with negative anti-SSA/SSB antibodies were diagnosed as pSS by lower lip biopsy. Coadwion The international classification criteria （2002） for pSS is feasible in Chinese patients. It has high sensitivity and specificity, and may serve as diagnosis criteria in routine clinical practice.

Use of Initial Modified RECIST Tumor Response Evaluation Criteria for Predicting Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma Undergoing Transarterial Chemoembolization with Drug-Eluting Beads

Introduction: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) reduces tumor growth and increases survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Drug-eluting beads (DEB) deliver slow-release chemotherapy and reduce systemic toxicity during TACE. This study correlated initial tumor response according to modified RECIST (mRECIST) criteria and 1-year survival in patients with HCC treated with TACE-DEB, and identified predictors of tumor response. Methods: Fifty-two patients with HCC received TACE-DEB loaded with doxorubicin 75 mg during a 6-month period. Tumor response was evaluated 1 month after the procedure according to mRECIST criteria. Results: Most patients were cirrhotic and etiology of liver disease was hepatitis C in 26/52 (50%). Similar numbers of patients had Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) A and BCLC B disease. Most patients had one nodule (66%). Complete response (CR) was achieved in 12/52 (23%), partial response in 19/52 (37%), stable disease in 4/52 (8%) and progressive disease in 17/52 (32%). Largest HCC ≤58 mm and BCLC stage A were associated with CR. The 1-year survival was 74%, with survival rates of 95% and 56% in the BCLC A and B groups, respectively. Variables reflecting tumor extension were associated with better survival. CR according to mRECIST criteria was a predictor of better 1-year survival (100% vs. 64%, P < 0.05). Conclusion: BCLC A and CR according to mRECIST criteria predict improved 1-year survival in patients with HCC treated with TACE-DEB. Further studies are needed to evaluate other predictors of survival and to determine if tumor response predicts long-term survival.

Maximum Entropy Distribution Function and Uncertainty Evaluation Criteria

Marine environmental design parameter extrapolation has important applications in marine engineering and coastal disaster prevention.The distribution models used for environmental design parameter usually pass the hypothesis tests in statistical analysis,but the calculation results of different distribution models often vary largely.In this paper,based on the information entropy,the overall uncertainty test criteria were studied for commonly used distributions including Gumbel,Weibull,and Pearson-III distribution.An improved method for parameter estimation of the maximum entropy distribution model is proposed on the basis of moment estimation.The study in this paper shows that the number of sample data and the degree of dispersion are proportional to the information entropy,and the overall uncertainty of the maximum entropy distribution model is minimal compared with other models.

Evaluation Criteria Based on Mutual Information for Classifications Including Rejected Class

与用表演措施的常规评估标准不同，信息理论基于在场的标准在机器学习的应用的一个唯一的有益的特征。然而，我们仍然远非正在拥有熵类型标准的深入的理解，说，在与常规基于表演的标准的关系。这份报纸学习通用分类问题，它包括一拒绝，或未知，班。我们在场基本公式和分类基于信息学习的图解的图理论。一个靠近形式的方程为通用分类问题在规范的相互的信息和扩充混乱矩阵之间被导出。敏感方程的三个定理和定理集合为学习在相互的信息和常规表演索引之间的关系被给。我们也与常规标准比较举与相互的信息标准的优点和限制有关的数字例子和几讨论。

Relative accuracy of spatial predictive models for lynx Lynx canadensis derived using logistic regression-AIC,multiple criteria evaluation and Bayesian approaches

We compared probability surfaces derived using one set of environmental variables in three Geographic Information Systems （GIS） -based approaches： logistic regression and Akaike＇s Information Criterion （AIC）, Multiple Criteria Evaluation （MCE）, and Bayesian Analysis （specifically Dempster-Shafer theory）. We used lynx Lynx canadensis as our focal species, and developed our environment relationship model using track data collected in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada, during winters from 1997 to 2000. The accuracy of the three spatial models were compared using a contingency table method. We determined the percentage of cases in which both presence and absence points were correctly classified （overall accuracy）, the failure to predict a species where it occurred （omission error） and the prediction of presence where there was absence （commission error）. Our overall accuracy showed the logistic regression approach was the most accurate （74.51%）. The multiple criteria evaluation was intermediate （39.22%）, while the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） theory model was the poorest （29.90%）. However, omission and commission error tell us a different story： logistic regression had the lowest commission error, while D-S theory produced the lowest omission error. Our results provide evidence that habitat modellers should evaluate all three error measures when ascribing confidence in their model. We suggest that for our study area at least, the logistic regression model is optimal. However, where sample size is small or the species is very rare, it may also be useful to explore and/or use a more ecologically cautious modelling approach （e.g. Dempster-Shafer） that would over-predict, protect more sites, and thereby minimize the risk of missing critical habitat in conservation plans .