Evaluation of Farmer Training Satisfaction Level in Hubei Province

Based on fully understanding the significance of farmer training,this paper builds the evaluation index system for farmer training satisfaction level. Then this paper employs the field survey data about Yichang and Jingzhou in Hubei Province to evaluate the farmer training satisfaction level in Hubei Province. Results show that farmers have high level of satisfaction on agricultural training in Hubei Province,and the average satisfaction level reaches 0. 8556; there are regional differences in the farmer training satisfaction level in Hubei Province; the index weight is not entirely directly proportional to the training satisfaction level in the evaluation index system. Finally,from training courses,training teachers,training organization and follow-up services,this paper brings forward the recommendations for improving farmer training satisfaction level in Hubei Province,improve farmer training system,further improve the effectiveness of training and promote farmers' quality.

Impacts of the Minimum Purchase Price Policy for Grain on the Planting Area of Rice in Hubei Province Based on a Mixed Linear Model

Impacts of the minimum purchase price policy for grain on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province were analyzed based on a mixed linear model.After the indicator system containing the minimum purchase price policy and other factors influencing the planting area of rice was constructed,principal component analysis of the system was conducted,and then a mixed linear model where the planting area of rice was as the dependent variable was established.The results show that after the exclusion of the interference from other factors,the minimum purchase price policy for grain had a positive impact on the planting area of rice in Hubei Province.That is,the minimum purchase price policy significantly stimulated the growth of rice planting area in Hubei Province.

Analysis on Farmers’ Straw Marketization Behavior and Its Influence Factors: A Case Study of Hubei Province

Crop straw has huge resource potential. It has an important significance for realizing waste recycling and improving eco-environment to prefect straw marketization system and sufficiently stimulate farmers’ straw marketization behavior. Based on 427 copies of investigation data on farmers,influence mechanism framework of farmers’ straw marketization behavior is constructed,and key factors of farmers’ straw marketization behavior are analyzed. Results show that farmers joining in straw marketization account for 42. 1%; in influence factors of farmers’ straw marketization behavior,cultivated land area,market price level,logistics satisfaction and air quality perception have significantly positive impacts on farmers’ straw marketization behavior,while education degree,agricultural income proportion and traffic convenience have significantly negative impacts on farmers’ straw marketization behavior. Therefore,it needs strengthening propaganda intensity,carrying out reasonable subsidies and support,encouraging and breeding new type of organization,and establishing and improving the price mechanism of straw marketization to perfect straw marketization construction.

Analysis on Features of Agricultural Structure Change and Agricultural Competitiveness in Hubei Province

The output data of crop farming,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery in the Hubei Statistical Yearbook-2009 is used to analyze the features of agricultural structure change in Hubei Province since 1983;according to the relevant data in Hubei Statistical Yearbook and China Statistical Yearbook in 2005 and 2009,and adopting the shift-share analysis model,the difference in agricultural economic growth between Hubei and other provinces in Central China as well as the difference among the 17 regions of Hubei Province during 2004-2008 are analyzed.Results show that,the agriculture in Hubei Province shows significant overall advantages in central China and has stronger competitiveness,but its crop farming and fishery structure are not quite reasonable,and the competitive advantages of its fishery and agricultural services still need to be strengthened;the agricultural structure within Hubei Province sees an obvious regional differences,viewed from the total deviation,Huanggang,Jingmen and Yichang enjoy competitive edge in the whole province,from the viewpoint of industrial sectors,Huanggang is the most competitive in its planting,forestry and animal husbandry,while Jingmen is the strongest in fishery and Xiangfan has a competitive edge over others in its agricultural services.Based on those results above,it is proposed that Hubei Province should fully recognize its natural conditions,resources endowment and current differences in the economic status of each places,work out measures to suit local conditions,take full use of its advantages,extend its production chain and go on the development road with regional characteristics.

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Environment Carrying Capacity of Yunnan Province

Based on the concept and connotation of water environment carrying capacity, taking Yunnan Province as a case, this paper built water environment carrying capacity evaluation system from the perspectives of water resources, water environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development, and applied the index evaluation model to analyze the trends of water environment carrying capacity in Yunnan from 2006 to 2014. The results showed that, during those years, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity ranged from 0.23 to 0.46 in Yunnan Province.The minimum value was 0.23 in 2013, the maximum value was 0.46 in 2010. From 2006 to 2014, the evaluation value of water environment carrying capacity was less than 0.5 in general, and the water environment in a fragile state on the whole.

Evaluation of Agricultural Ecological Security in Hubei Province

With the promotion of agricultural ecological civilization construction in China, agricultural ecological security has received increasing attention. How to ensure agricultural ecological security has become a great concern for many scholars. As an important agricultural province in China, Hubei is of great significance to Chinese food security and agricultural sustainable development. This paper aims to establish an index system of agricultural ecological security and security classification of Hubei via Analytic Hierarchy Process and Pressure-State-Response methods. An evaluation of agricultural ecological security in Hubei, with a base of the national average value in 2015, reveals that the security degree has increased by 0.07566 from 0.90150 in 2005 to 0.97716 in 2015. Results show that agricultural ecological security in Hubei has improved but failed to reach the national average and there is still large space for improvement of the security level, considering a trend of deterioration in some indexes, such as per capita water resources, population density, per unit area pesticide load of farmland, forest coverage, grassland degradation rate and average annual precipitation. Influencing factors, especially population spatial distribution, misconduct in agricultural production, insufficient ability in agricultural natural disaster prevention, deficiency of agro-ecological technology of agricultural ecological security in Hubei are analyzed. For improvement of the degree of agricultural ecological security in Hubei, some countermeasures and suggestions are discussed.

湖北省文化产业效率评价与驱动因素分析——基于DEA方法与Tobit模型的实证研究

文化产业效率是衡量地区文化高质量发展的重要指标.该文基于2014—2021年湖北省文化产业的面板数据,运用DEA方法评价全省及各市州的文化产业效率情况,测算这一效率的演进情况,并采用Tobit回归模型分析湖北省文化产业效率的驱动因素.研究发现:湖北省文化产业效率值呈现规模效率高、纯技术效率低进而导致综合效率不足的局面.从地区分异情况分析,武汉城市圈各城市文化产业效率值较高.从动态演进情况分析,湖北省文化产业效率及其分解效率都呈现先降后升的趋势,技术进步指数在多数年份都保持正向增长,但对综合效率的促进作用不足.在驱动因素方面,市场需求、科技创新水平、信息化水平对湖北省文化产业效率产生显著正向影响,建议加强对文化产业领域的投资与引导,巩固科技水平和经济水平的支撑作用,促进地区文化产业效率提高.

基于BP-DEMATEL的山西省冬小麦水足迹影响因素识别

针对山西省冬小麦水足迹历史演变及关键影响因素识别问题,分析了1993—2021年山西省冬小麦水足迹历史演变规律,利用BP神经网络-决策实验室(BP-DEMATEL)模型对冬小麦水足迹演变的关键影响因素进行识别,将其分为驱动型因素及特征型因素,并揭示了影响因素之间的作用机制。结果表明:1993—2021年山西省冬小麦水足迹及单位水足迹均呈下降趋势;2021年山西省冬小麦总水足迹为27亿m^(3)(蓝水占比57%),单位水足迹为1 122 m^(3)/t,与前期高点相比分别下降38%(较1994年)和21%(较1993年);气温、相对湿度和灌溉面积为冬小麦水足迹演变的关键驱动型因素,化肥施用量和农业机械总动力为关键特征型因素。

基于投影寻踪模型的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全评价

河北省作为京津冀城市圈中不可或缺的一部分,其水、能源、粮食、人口等资源安全稳定对于整个区域经济和社会的发展尤为重要。为了深入了解河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全状况,将人口因素纳入水-能源-粮食系统进行分析,构建水-能源-粮食-人口系统的安全评价指标体系,运用基于麻雀算法改进的投影寻踪模型对河北省2010—2019年水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全进行时空演变综合评价。结果表明:在研究期,河北省水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级逐渐升高,各市的水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全差异性降低;河北省各市水-能源-粮食-人口系统安全等级值在1.32~3.95之间,说明该系统安全处于不安全、亚安全、安全3个等级。建议河北省根据自身资源优势,合理分配资源,实现水、能源、粮食和人口的协调发展。

面向山东省数字经济政策文本的量化评价研究

数字经济政策是促进数字经济发展,规范与促进数字经济活动的重要指导性文本。对数字经济政策进行梳理与量化评价,可为相关政策的制定与优化提供有效支撑。以文本挖掘技术和PMC指数模型为工具,构建以9个一级变量和35个二级变量为指标的政策评价体系,重点对山东省的数字经济政策进行量化评价与分析。研究所选取的10项数字经济政策样本中,3项为优秀,3项为良好,3项为及格,1项为不合格。研究结果表明,山东省数字经济政策整体情况表现良好,具备一定的科学性,未来应在政策时效、政策领域、政策视角等方面进行优化。

CFSv2模式对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水预测检验评估

利用1999-2010年CFSv2模式资料,基于国家气候中心Ps和Cs检验方法,对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水趋势和过程进行检验评估。结果发现:模式预测6月延伸期降水趋势效果较差,但从7月上旬开始至8月中旬模式预测技巧明显提高,Ps评分基本通过65分,距平符号一致率也达到50%以上。模式预测延伸期降水过程效果较好的时间为6月上旬、7月上旬、7月下旬和8月中旬,预测降水日数准确率在20%以上。预测结论可以为业务中延伸期降水预测提供参考依据。

基于PMC指数模型的浙江共同富裕政策量化评价

文章收集中央、省市区县不同层面出台的浙江省建设共同富裕示范区有效政策文本,通过构建PMC指数模型对其进行量化评价。分析评价发现:中央及浙江省及其他关于共同富裕建设的政策文本整体质量水平较高,但是不同级别的政策内部差距较为明显,具体在政策监管、政策领域、政策重点和政策保障四方面仍然存在优化空间。此项分析评价,可以为全国共同富裕示范区建设政策的制定和完善提供理论支撑和决策依据。

湖北省全口径水土流失治理现状调查及对策研究

当前,湖北省水土流失防治取得了显著成效,但成效仍不稳固,防治任务仍然繁重。建立规划实施监测评估机制,统筹区域全口径水土流失治理情况、跟踪规划实施情况,有利于切实提升区域水土流失治理效益,切实改善区域水土流失情况。收集整理了湖北省8个三级水土保持功能区内的典型县全口径水土流失治理措施实施相关情况以及各类项目图斑、竣工验收图和评估年卫星影像等资料,结合GF-1卫星遥感影像分析及无人机摄影测量等手段踏查治理图斑现场并矢量化治理图斑信息,完成了图斑现场信息化复核校验工作,基本摸清了2020年全口径新增水土流失治理任务分部门、分工程、分措施、分图斑分解落实情况。发现湖北省全口径水土流失治理措施图斑坐标准确率为96.13%、图斑有效率为93.22%、图斑完成率为97.37%,但部分项目进度存在一定滞后、田间配套设施配置不太完善、人为扰动风险仍居高位等实际困难。据此,提出了强化目标责任考核、健全监督检查和监理工作机制、推动防治工作统筹的对策建议,可为湖北省水土流失治理满足《全国水土保持规划(2015~2030年)》中制定的目标任务提供决策依据。

日间手术对平均住院日影响的中断时间序列分析

目的 探讨日间手术的实施对医院平均住院日的影响。方法 从湖北省某三甲医院日间手术管理系统中调取全院、泌尿外科、眼科及耳鼻喉头颈外科2013年1月至2019年12月的平均住院日数据,采用中断时间序列模型分析日间手术实施前后各科室平均住院日的变化趋势。结果 日间手术的实施使全院、泌尿外科、眼科及耳鼻喉头颈外科平均住院日分别下降1.665 d(P<0.05)、3.501 d(P<0.05)、2.840 d(P<0.05)和5.767 d(P<0.05),其中,日间手术前平均每月分别下降0.026 d(P<0.05)、0.001 d(P=0.856)、0.004 d(P=0.425)和-0.005 d(P=0.383),日间手术后下降幅度分别增加了0.030 d(P<0.05)、0.073 d(P<0.05)、0.058 d(P<0.05)和0.104 d(P<0.05)。结论日间手术的实施可有效缩短平均住院日,提高医疗资源利用率。

基于熵权TOPSIS模型的农业绿色发展水平评价——以河南省为例

现代农业绿色发展水平反映了农业综合实力,通过评估河南省农业绿色发展水平,可为河南省建设现代农业强省提供指导。本研究采用熵权TOPSIS模型,构建了包含资源节约、环境友好、生态保育、质量高效4个维度14个指标的农业绿色发展综合评价指数,对河南省2007—2021年农业绿色发展水平动态变化及河南省下辖18个地市2019—2021年农业绿色发展水平(3年的平均值)进行了综合分析。结果表明:反映河南省农业绿色发展水平的综合评价指数呈波动上升趋势,但该指数反映的整体水平仍然较低;河南省各地市之间农业绿色发展水平差异较大,西部地区明显低于其他地区;根据聚类分析结果,河南省不同地市可划分为Ⅰ区(现代农业区)、Ⅱ区(传统农业区)和Ⅲ区(都市农业发展区)3个区域类型。河南省各地市应依据本地资源禀赋,面向国家发展战略需要,因地制宜,重点突破影响现代农业绿色发展的薄弱环节,进一步推进农业绿色发展进程。

基于机器学习的湖北省夏季干旱预测模型构建与检验

为构建准确的干旱预测模型,选择具有物理意义的预测因子和采用高效的预测方法至关重要。与传统预测技术相比,机器学习算法因其高效性和可靠性,在气候预测中被广泛应用。本文基于1960—2022年湖北省70个国家气象站逐月气象要素数据,以及国家气候中心与美国国家海洋和大气管理局提供的大气环流和海温指数,采用标准化降水蒸散指数判断是否干旱作为目标变量,运用特征选择方法筛选出11个指数作为输入变量。在此基础上,分别使用分类回归树和随机森林两种机器学习算法,构建了湖北省夏季干旱预测模型。随机选取47 a数据作为训练集,并利用剩余16 a数据作为测试集,对预测结果进行检验。结果表明,分类回归树和随机森林模型对干旱是否发生的预测准确率分别为88%和81%。此外,两种算法建模时均将亚洲纬向环流指数列为最重要的变量,表明该指数在湖北省夏季干旱预测中具有关键作用。通过构建两种机器学习算法预测模型,为湖北省夏季干旱预测提供了客观有效的新思路,对湖北省防旱减灾具有重要意义。

基于云耦合协调模型的水资源关联系统协调性动态评价

以山东省为研究区域,选取21个代表性指标,采用熵权-层次分析法确定水资源关联系统协调性评价指标权重,构建云耦合协调模型,分析2010-2021年水资源关联系统协调性及动态变化。结果表明:山东省水资源关联系统耦合协调度整体呈现不断上升的变化趋势,其变化范围为0.608~0.715,耦合协调发展等级逐渐由初级协调水平向中级协调水平发展变化,在2014年和2019年出现明显变点;在空间上各地区耦合协调度呈现东高西低的分布特征,不同阶段耦合协调发展水平地域性差异性较为明显,整体上由高到低为胶东半岛地区>鲁中南地区>鲁西北地区,其中,济南市和青岛市耦合协调发展能力最优,达到良好协调水平,德州市和滨州市耦合协调发展能力较为缓慢,维持在初级协调水平;未来山东省应加强鲁西北平原区水资源关联系统协调发展,促进全省空间均衡。

海南省海洋渔业生态-经济系统脆弱性及其影响因素分析

根据1998—2019年海南省海洋渔业统计数据,基于暴露性、敏感性、适应性三个维度,运用熵权法构建海南省海洋渔业生态-经济系统脆弱性评价指标体系,探讨海南省海洋渔业生态-经济系统脆弱性时间变化趋势及其影响因素.结果表明:(1)研究期内海南省海洋渔业生态-经济系统脆弱性经历了先升后降的变化历程,2008年以后系统脆弱性波动下降,处于中度脆弱阶段,但2016年以后系统脆弱性有上升趋势;(2)人类渔业活动对海洋渔业生态系统造成的压力持续增加导致研究期内系统暴露性持续上升,经济社会对海洋渔业依赖性减弱有效改善了系统敏感性,抗干扰能力和恢复能力的增强使系统适应性持续提升;(3)海洋渔业捕捞和养殖活动、经济和社会对海洋渔业依赖程度与科技支撑能力是影响系统脆弱性的重要指标,其中,海洋渔业经济社会依赖程度和科技水平的提升是海南省海洋渔业生态-经济系统脆弱性的关键影响因子.

福建特色文化分类及评价研究

通过辨析文化的内涵和本质特征,以“人创造文化的形式”和“地域关联程度”为双重维度构建了“三横三纵”表,分类梳理出9类82种福建特色文化,解决了福建特色文化以往交叠不明晰的问题。运用文献梳理、专家焦点小组等方法构建了福建特色文化软实力评价指标体系,建立AHP-TOPSIS组合模型,依据文化软实力指标体系对具有代表性的福建特色文化软实力展开评价,为福建特色文化的科学评价及未来发展提升方向提供了理论参考与实证研究基础。