This paper deals with the re-entry predictions of the space objects from the low eccentric orbit. Any re-entering object re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere with a high orbital velocity. Due to the aerodynamic heating t...This paper deals with the re-entry predictions of the space objects from the low eccentric orbit. Any re-entering object re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere with a high orbital velocity. Due to the aerodynamic heating the object tends to break into multiple fragments which later pose a great risk hazard to the population. Here a satellite is considered as the space object for which the re-entry prediction is made. This prediction is made with a package where the trajectory path, the time of re-entry and the survival rate of the fragments is done. The prediction is done using DRAMA 2.0—ESA’s Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis Tool suite, MATLAB and Numerical Prediction of Orbital Events software. The predicted re-entry time of OSIRIS 3U was found to be on 7th March 2019, 7:25 (UTC), whereas the actual re-entry time was on 7th March 2019, 7:03 (UTC). The trajectory path found was 51.5699 deg. (Lat), −86.5738 deg. (Long.) with an altitude of 168.643 km. But the actual trajectory was 51.76 deg. (Lat), −89.01deg. (Long.) with an altitude of 143.5 km.展开更多
Extreme values of wind speed were studied based on the highly detailed ERA5 dataset covering the central part of the Kara Sea. Cases in which the ice coverage of the cells exceeded 15% were filtered. Our study shows t...Extreme values of wind speed were studied based on the highly detailed ERA5 dataset covering the central part of the Kara Sea. Cases in which the ice coverage of the cells exceeded 15% were filtered. Our study shows that the wind speed extrema obtained from station observations, as well as from modelling results in the framework of mesoscale models, can be divided into two groups according to their probability distribution laws. One group is specifically designated as black swans, with the other referred to as dragons (or dragon-kings). In this study we determined that the data of ERA5 accurately described the swans, but did not fully reproduce extrema related to the dragons;these extrema were identified only in half of ERA5 grid points. Weibull probability distribution function (PDF) parameters were identified in only a quarter of the pixels. The parameters were connected almost deterministically. This converted the Weibull function into a one-parameter dependence. It was not clear whether this uniqueness was a consequence of the features of the calculation algorithm used in ERA5, or whether it was a consequence of a relatively small area being considered, which had the same wind regime. Extremes of wind speed arise as mesoscale features and are associated with hydrodynamic features of the wind flow. If the flow was non-geostrophic and if its trajectory had a substantial curvature, then the extreme velocities were distributed according to a rule similar to the Weibull law.展开更多
文摘This paper deals with the re-entry predictions of the space objects from the low eccentric orbit. Any re-entering object re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere with a high orbital velocity. Due to the aerodynamic heating the object tends to break into multiple fragments which later pose a great risk hazard to the population. Here a satellite is considered as the space object for which the re-entry prediction is made. This prediction is made with a package where the trajectory path, the time of re-entry and the survival rate of the fragments is done. The prediction is done using DRAMA 2.0—ESA’s Debris Risk Assessment and Mitigation Analysis Tool suite, MATLAB and Numerical Prediction of Orbital Events software. The predicted re-entry time of OSIRIS 3U was found to be on 7th March 2019, 7:25 (UTC), whereas the actual re-entry time was on 7th March 2019, 7:03 (UTC). The trajectory path found was 51.5699 deg. (Lat), −86.5738 deg. (Long.) with an altitude of 168.643 km. But the actual trajectory was 51.76 deg. (Lat), −89.01deg. (Long.) with an altitude of 143.5 km.
文摘Extreme values of wind speed were studied based on the highly detailed ERA5 dataset covering the central part of the Kara Sea. Cases in which the ice coverage of the cells exceeded 15% were filtered. Our study shows that the wind speed extrema obtained from station observations, as well as from modelling results in the framework of mesoscale models, can be divided into two groups according to their probability distribution laws. One group is specifically designated as black swans, with the other referred to as dragons (or dragon-kings). In this study we determined that the data of ERA5 accurately described the swans, but did not fully reproduce extrema related to the dragons;these extrema were identified only in half of ERA5 grid points. Weibull probability distribution function (PDF) parameters were identified in only a quarter of the pixels. The parameters were connected almost deterministically. This converted the Weibull function into a one-parameter dependence. It was not clear whether this uniqueness was a consequence of the features of the calculation algorithm used in ERA5, or whether it was a consequence of a relatively small area being considered, which had the same wind regime. Extremes of wind speed arise as mesoscale features and are associated with hydrodynamic features of the wind flow. If the flow was non-geostrophic and if its trajectory had a substantial curvature, then the extreme velocities were distributed according to a rule similar to the Weibull law.
