Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies to...Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.展开更多
The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008....The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank＇s interventions. The differences may lead to different predietions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model-independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a moreflexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.展开更多
This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR(listed as CNH)directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Ch...This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR(listed as CNH)directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Chinese banking stability.This is especially so amid heightened uncertainty about global trade or the People’s Republic of China.Thus,the CNH market volatility is a leading indicator of onshore Chinese banking sector volatility.Our results suggest that further offshore exchange market movements arising out of news such as increasing trade friction with the United States will generate greater volatility in the Chinese banking sector.Far from being a shock absorber for the Chinese financial system,the CNH market appears to be a shock transmitter of risk from offshore economic policy uncertainty to the Chinese banking system.展开更多
针对金融危机预警,FR、STV、KLR和DCSD 4种模型对数据有特殊要求,造成应用上的困难,预测能力不足的问题。在Cox and Oakes基于存活分析提出的等比例危险模型(PHM)的基础上,利用31个样本国家的年度数据资料,采用13个相关预警变量,构建金...针对金融危机预警,FR、STV、KLR和DCSD 4种模型对数据有特殊要求,造成应用上的困难,预测能力不足的问题。在Cox and Oakes基于存活分析提出的等比例危险模型(PHM)的基础上,利用31个样本国家的年度数据资料,采用13个相关预警变量,构建金融危机前一年的PHM预警模型,并进行实证分析,提出一种的金融危机预警模型。通过对预测期间17个测试国进行的模型预警效果检验,认为该模型预警能力较佳。展开更多
文摘Central Asian Economies(CAEs)have diverse exchange rate policies.They have recorded higher volatility in the foreign exchange market since inception.High volatility of the transition era has drifted these economies towards partial dollarization.Monetary authorities in CAEs,(already have a challenge of maintaining monetary policy autonomy)have a gigantic task of price stability and stopping the spread of dollarization.This study is directed towards assessing the drivers and the determinants of foreign exchange market pressure in CAEs.The results,based on panel data analysis and the System GMM model,have provided useful insights about the exchange market pressure determinants particularly USD,Euro,Ruble,and Renminbi.The results show that China and Russia exchange market pressure has a negative effect on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.While the dollar index shows a positive impact on the exchange market pressure of CAEs.Overall,the findings imply that China and Russia currency appreciation results in a trade deficit across CAEs.The policy implication suggests that the floating exchange rate regime(inflation targeting regime)is not in favor of CAEs,and they must use managed-float to reduce their trade deficits.
文摘The present paper uses the model-dependent and the modeL independent approach to measure the RMB exchange market pressure （EMP） and the central bank＇s intervention using monthly data from January 1999 to June 2008. It is determined that the RMB has been under great appreciation pressure over the past decade. However, the pressure has been weakening since 2005. The two approaches provide significantly different results in terms of the estimated RMB EMP indices and the estimated central bank＇s interventions. The differences may lead to different predietions of potential currency crises. According to the estimation of the RMB EMP, and based on the model-independent approach, the paper shows that China has been under threat of an appreciation currency crisis since 2008. Therefore, China should adopt a moreflexible exchange rate regime to prevent a potential crisis.
文摘This paper shows that signals from the offshore China spot market for the Chinese renminbi of the Hong Kong SAR(listed as CNH)directly affect the volatility of share prices of Chinese banks and the overall risks of Chinese banking stability.This is especially so amid heightened uncertainty about global trade or the People’s Republic of China.Thus,the CNH market volatility is a leading indicator of onshore Chinese banking sector volatility.Our results suggest that further offshore exchange market movements arising out of news such as increasing trade friction with the United States will generate greater volatility in the Chinese banking sector.Far from being a shock absorber for the Chinese financial system,the CNH market appears to be a shock transmitter of risk from offshore economic policy uncertainty to the Chinese banking system.
文摘针对金融危机预警,FR、STV、KLR和DCSD 4种模型对数据有特殊要求,造成应用上的困难,预测能力不足的问题。在Cox and Oakes基于存活分析提出的等比例危险模型(PHM)的基础上,利用31个样本国家的年度数据资料,采用13个相关预警变量,构建金融危机前一年的PHM预警模型,并进行实证分析,提出一种的金融危机预警模型。通过对预测期间17个测试国进行的模型预警效果检验,认为该模型预警能力较佳。
