A logit-based discrete choice model is proposed to study the exit choice behaviour of evacuees in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits. Several factors influencing the exit choice behaviour, including the ...A logit-based discrete choice model is proposed to study the exit choice behaviour of evacuees in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits. Several factors influencing the exit choice behaviour, including the information obtained by evacuees, the tendency of following others, the visibility and familiarity of exits and the physical conditions of nearby exits, are considered. Evacuees are allowed to re-select their target exits for minimizing the perceived disutility during evacuation process. Numerical results from applying the model to cellular automata simulation of evacuation are presented and the effects of some model parameters on evacuation time are investigated.展开更多
Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcom...Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcomes and probabilities into subjective terms and integrate them as a parameter of cumulative prospect value (CPV), which determines the decision. The main contribution of this paper is the use of the CPV to predict exit choice. Furthermore, the different decision-making rules including Max, exponential(Expo), and Ratio (i.e., the three variable choice functions) were summarized and examined. This study used a confusion matrix to compare the predicted results with experimental data. Consequently, the parameters of Accuracy and F1-score showed that the predictions from Max and Expo were significantly more realistic while the results from Ratio were much more robust.展开更多
基金Projects supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB705503)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 70521001)
文摘A logit-based discrete choice model is proposed to study the exit choice behaviour of evacuees in rooms with internal obstacles and multiple exits. Several factors influencing the exit choice behaviour, including the information obtained by evacuees, the tendency of following others, the visibility and familiarity of exits and the physical conditions of nearby exits, are considered. Evacuees are allowed to re-select their target exits for minimizing the perceived disutility during evacuation process. Numerical results from applying the model to cellular automata simulation of evacuation are presented and the effects of some model parameters on evacuation time are investigated.
基金The work was supported by the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region China(Project No.CityU 11208119)by a grant from CityU(Project No.SRG-Fd 7005769).
文摘Exit choice is essential for pedestrian safety and evacuation efficiency during the context of an emergency. Cumulative prospect theory is a widespread realistic decision-making theory that can transform choice outcomes and probabilities into subjective terms and integrate them as a parameter of cumulative prospect value (CPV), which determines the decision. The main contribution of this paper is the use of the CPV to predict exit choice. Furthermore, the different decision-making rules including Max, exponential(Expo), and Ratio (i.e., the three variable choice functions) were summarized and examined. This study used a confusion matrix to compare the predicted results with experimental data. Consequently, the parameters of Accuracy and F1-score showed that the predictions from Max and Expo were significantly more realistic while the results from Ratio were much more robust.
