Theory of Capital,Investment and Exchange Rate:A New Developmentalist Equation

The article deals with the relationship between the decision to invest and the exchange rate. The literature relates investment at interest rate. An increase in the interest rate would reduce the investment expenditure. Jorgenson’s equation uses the flexible accelerator model, taxation, and the cost of capital to explain and predict the amount of investment in machinery and equipment. The relationship between the exchange rate and the investment appears in the literature as a direct relation. An appreciated exchange rate allows the importation of cheaper machinery and equipment and increases productive investments. This paper proposes a modified equation in which the appreciated exchange rate inhibits productive investments by reducing the expectation of profit, either because the domestic market becomes more competitive or because exports decrease. It still incorporates in the model of Jorgenson the idea that the unit cost of labor is the relevant variable to explain the choice of investing, assuming a function of production of fixed coefficients.

Application of Physics Phenomenon Model Towards Economic Symptoms in Indonesia （Spring Oscillation Model and Rupiah Rate Exchange）

A physical phenomenon can be duplicated similarly to different phenomenon. Based on these facts, the application of physics phenomenon model towards the economic cases that occurred in Indonesia will be discussed. Physical phenomenon to be discussed is the loaded oscillation spring, while the economic case is the dynamics of the Rupiah against foreign currencies, namely U.S. Dollars. Symptoms of the analyzed oscillations involve vibration load on the spring, with the mass load changes against time; for free oscillation, damped oscillation, forced oscillation, as well as forced damped oscillation. Oscillation is modeled into a non homogenous second order differential equation, which results in a solution of the deviation function of time in the form of logarithmic harmonic function. Obtained solutions of physical phenomenon model are matched with the dynamics of the exchange rate data for both steady state, as well as to the condition shortly after the surge （crash）. Models are quite satisfactory, especially when being associated with the occurrence of momentary interruption followed by a relaxation mechanism, both for amplitude and period.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.

The Pursuit of Fallacy in Density Functional Theory: The Quest for Exchange and Correlation, the Rigorous Treatment of Exchange in the Kohn-Sham Formalism and the Continuing Search for Correlation

As pointed out in the paper preceding this one, in the case of functionals whose independent variable must obey conditions of integral normalization, conventional functional differentiation, defined in terms of an arbitrary test function, is generally inapplicable and functional derivatives with respect to the density must be evaluated through the alternative and widely used limiting procedure based on the Dirac delta function. This leads to the determination of the rate of change of the dependent variable with respect to its independent variable at each isolated pair, , that may not be part of a functional (a set of ordered pairs). This extends the concept of functional derivative to expectation values of operators with respect to wave functions leading to a density even if the wave functions (and expectation values) do not form functionals. This new formulation of functional differentiation forms the basis for the study of the mathematical integrity of a number of concepts in density functional theory (DFT) such as the existence of a universal functional of the density, of orbital-free density functional theory, the derivative discontinuity of the exchange and correlation functional and the extension of DFT to open systems characterized by densities with fractional normalization. It is shown that no universal functional exists but, rather, a universal process based only on the density and independent of the possible existence of a potential, leads to unique functionals of the density determined through the minimization procedure of the constrained search. The mathematical integrity of two methodologies proposed for the treatment of the Coulomb interaction, the self-interaction free method and the optimized effective potential method is examined and the methodologies are compared in terms of numerical calculations. As emerges from this analysis, the optimized effective potential method is found to be numerically approximate but formally invalid, contrary to the rigorously exact results of the self-interaction-free method.

Functionals and Functional Derivatives of Wave Functions and Densities

It is shown that the process of conventional functional differentiation does not apply to functionals whose domain (and possibly range) is subject to the condition of integral normalization, as is the case with respect to a domain defined by wave functions or densities, in which there exists no neighborhood about a given element in the domain defined by arbitrary variations that also lie in the domain. This is remedied through the generalization of the domain of a functional to include distributions in the form of , where ?is the Dirac delta function and is a real number. This allows the determination of the rate of change of a functional with respect to changes of the independent variable determined at each point of the domain, with no reference needed to the values of the functional at different functions in its domain. One feature of the formalism is the determination of rates of change of general expectation values (that may not necessarily be functionals of the density) with respect to the wave functions or the densities determined by the wave functions forming the expectation value. It is also shown that ignoring the conditions of conventional functional differentiation can lead to false proofs, illustrated through a flaw in the proof that all densities defined on a lattice are -representable. In a companion paper, the mathematical integrity of a number of long-standing concepts in density functional theory are studied in terms of the formalism developed here.

Analysis on Forming Reason of RMB Appreciation Expectation

Since 2003, there has been a strong RMB appreciation expectation in the market. RMB exchange rate becomes the world focus again. This paper insists that the depreciation pressure of US dollar is the main reason that causes RMB appreciation expectation; the ＂double price action＂ of the Chinese tradable goods and non-tradable goods is the special reason that leads to RMB appreciation expectation; furthermore, the asymmetric foreign exchange rate management system in China strengthens RMB appreciation expectation.

Longevity,Fertility,and the Real Exchange Rate

We build a simple overlapping generation model to investigate the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate where fertility is chosen endogenously.The model reveals that,although the overall effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate is not certain,longer life expectancy tends to cause the real exchange rate to depreciate by reducing fertility.Fertility thus serves as a mediator in the effect of life expectancy on the real exchange rate.Evidence from 148 economies(1980-2018)shows a statistically significant and robust negative relationship between life expectancy and the real exchange rate.It is estimated that a I year increase in life expectancy is associated with a 1.5 percent depreciation in the real exchange rate.The evidence also confirms the mediated effect of fertility.The mediated effect that fertility exerts accounts for 30 percent to 50 percent of the total effect,depending on the real exchange rate index used.

Structural Changes in the Renminbi Exchange Rate Mechanism

This paper examines structural changes in China s exchange rate mechanism.For this purpose,we propose a predictive model incorporating three factors that influence the central parity rate:a smoothing factor,a market factor,and a basket factor.We first apply the model to analyze the effects of 12 exchange rate reforms since 2005,treating these reforms as predetermined structural breaks.Among other results,we find that the main impact of introducing a“counter-cyclical factor”is to weaken the role of the basket factor.We estimate structural breaks in data,assuming that the number and dates of breaks are unknown,and we find that,although the majority of estimated breaks occur within the neighborhood of exchange rate reforms,there are breaks due to other external shocks such as the escalation of the China-US trade conflict in May 2019.It is suggested that our model may be used to guide future currency reforms in China.

Renminbi Exchange Rate： Peg to A Wide Band Currency Basket

Persistent renminbi （RMB） devaluation expectations are one of the greatest threats to China ＂s macroeconomic stability. Market interventions backed by huge foreign exchange reserves and capital controls are not sufficient to eliminate the expectations of devaluation. Creating a market-based and flexible RMB exchange rate regime holds the key to the elimination of devaluation expectations. The present paper compares the pros and cons of severaI policy options, and proposes to introduce, as a transition to free floating, a new exchange rate regime pegged to a currency basket with a wide band. The new regime should be able to give the RMB exchange rate enough flexibility to eliminate devaluation expectations as well as prevent excessive overshooting. To ensure a smooth transition, the new regime needs to be supported by controlling cross-border capital flOWS.

关注尾部风险:贸易政策不确定性、预期与人民币汇率变动

贸易是决定汇率的首要因素,而贸易政策变动带来的不确定性如何影响人民币汇率双向变动?本研究基于无抛补利率平价思想,引入贸易政策不确定性的尾部风险对汇率预期的影响,建立中美贸易政策不确定性与人民币汇率关系的理论模型,进而基于交叉分位数回归模型探究中美贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸市场的短期影响.实证结果表明中国和美国贸易政策不确定性对人民币在岸与离岸汇率冲击具有非对称性和尾部特征,且中国贸易政策不确定性对人民币汇率的影响占主导地位.最后,贸易政策不确定性通过改变外汇市场投资者的预期进一步作用于人民币汇率变动.因此,央行要加强针对尾部风险的主动应对措施,投资者需关注贸易政策改变带来的不确定性而调整套期保值策略。

汇率变动与出口产品加成率:影响机制和资源配置效应

利用2000—2013年中国工业企业数据和海关进出口数据,基于样本期间人民币汇率持续升值的事实,考察人民币汇率变动对中国出口产品加成率的影响。研究结果显示:人民币实际有效汇率的上升显著提高了企业出口产品加成率,并且该影响效应在异质性产品、竞争型行业、外资企业以及存在进口行为的企业中更大。机制分析表明,人民币升值通过产品质量效应、边际成本效应、价格竞争效应和市场选择效应影响出口产品加成率,其中产品质量升级和进口成本降低造成的影响占据主导,这是人民币升值显著提高出口产品加成率的重要原因。进一步研究显示,人民币升值的市场选择效应降低了产品内企业间的加成率离散度,提升了企业间的资源配置效率,但在市场选择效应和企业内加成率调整的共同影响下,其对企业内的资源配置效率没有显著影响。

人民币汇率预期度量的新方法:从外汇期权中提取风险中性概率密度

预期管理,已成为新时期人民币汇率制度改革的重要抓手,不仅可以缓解对中国操纵汇率的指责、为稳定人民币汇率提供新的手段和方式,还可以降低外汇管理成本,产生“四两拨千斤”的效果。加强预期管理,关键在于科学评估各类工具的效果,并相机抉择对其加以搭配组合,这有赖于准确度量人民币汇率预期。实践中,常用的汇率预期代理变量是远期NDF汇率和汇率预期调查。其中,使用最广的是远期NDF汇率,但其主要依据来自简单的可视化分析,缺乏严谨的经验证据支持。事实上,在大多数情况下,远期和期货价格都小于预期的未来现货价格,因而难以成为人民币汇率预期的有效测度。汇率预期调查则在技术上存在两个难题:一是在调查结果上存在人际不可比性;二是调查数据的样本量通常较小,无法充分反映预期异质性。近年来,金融衍生品市场不断发展为前沿金融工程技术的应用提供了重要条件。本研究提出了一种借助香港交易所美元兑人民币期权数据提取隐含的风险中性概率密度函数度量人民币汇率预期的新方法。基于风险中性密度函数基础上的人民币汇率预期度量,相关研究拟在如下三方面取得突破:一是基于新提取的汇率预期分布数据对已有研究进行实证再检验;二是通过比较汇率预期分布的变化评估外汇市场直接干预与间接干预的短期效果,继而为科学选择人民币汇率预期管理工具提供指导;三是可以尝试建立外汇市场压力和人民币汇率预期之间的联系。

湖泊与河流水文连通量化计算模型及其应用

湖泊与河流水文连通的量化是指导河湖保护与治理的关键之一,也是当前河湖生态复苏研究的热点问题。本文提出了一种湖泊与河流水文连通的量化计算模型,仅需少量实测或水动力模拟数据进行校验,即可量化计算单一或多个连通水道的河湖水文连通度。水位变化率与水位是决定水文连通的主控因子,水体交换强度与水位变化率呈线性正相关,且其增长速率与水位呈正相关。提出的水体交换流量计算方法可估算湖泊与长江水体交换流量。同等水位及水位变化率条件下,湖泊向长江输出水流的效率大于长江向湖泊灌入水流的效率。水文连通度峰值一般出现在整体上升或下降区间内的变异点,通过改变水位抬升或下降过程,可有效提升水文连通度均值及峰值,指导面向湖泊水生态环境改善的生态调度等。

数字化转型、宏观经济环境差异与股价崩盘风险

数字化转型有助于企业自身信息的释放,缓解投资者与企业、企业与产品供需市场之间的信息不对称,并使企业和投资者对宏观经济环境的变化更加敏感。文章在已有研究证明数字化转型能够降低股价崩盘风险的基础上,进一步提出数字化转型对股价崩盘风险具有非线性影响,选取2012年至2021年中国沪深A股上市公司为样本,实证检验企业数字化转型和宏观经济环境差异对股价崩盘风险的复杂影响。研究结果显示:与现有数字化转型能够减弱股价崩盘风险的相关研究不同,企业数字化转型对股价崩盘风险呈现倒“U”型影响,随着企业数字化转型加强,对股价崩盘风险的影响为先增大后减弱,并且当前众多企业数字化转型的影响处于倒“U”型的左侧,致使企业股价崩盘风险上升;在各地区和国家金融市场分割普遍存在的情况下,不同资本市场之间的估值差异、利率差异,以及汇率预期对股价崩盘风险均具有影响;数字化转型使企业与经济社会深度融合,能够调节宏观经济环境差异对股价崩盘风险的影响强度。

人民币汇率、出口贸易与我国碳排放水平的影响研究

在经济全球化和气候变化问题日益严峻的背景下,人民币汇率的波动不仅影响我国的出口贸易,还通过出口间接作用于碳排放水平。本文首先梳理了人民币汇率、出口贸易与碳排放水平之间的相互作用,通过我国2007—2020年省级面板数据,对人民币汇率如何通过影响出口贸易规模和结构,进而对我国碳排放水平产生影响建立中介效应模型。本文研究发现,当人民币贬值时,出口增长的同时伴随能源消耗和碳排放的增加。此外,本文进行地区异质性检验发现,人民币汇率的影响在我国北部地区最为显著。本文可以为我国制定更加科学合理的汇率政策和出口贸易政策提供理论依据,同时有助于推动低碳经济的发展和应对全球气候变化挑战。

基于汇率预期与央行外汇干预的汇率动态决定：理论分析与经验研究

本文通过将央行外汇干预引入到包含风险溢价的无抛补利率平价中,并采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型考察了2006年10月至2015年12月汇率预期和央行外汇干预对人民币汇率的影响。结果表明:1汇率预期与央行外汇干预对人民币即期汇率具有显著的短期和长期非对称影响,且在长期和短期内,人民币即期汇率均更易受升值预期影响;2央行的正向外汇干预在遏制人民币升值方面具有一定效果,但负向外汇干预不仅不会遏制人民币贬值,反而会助推人民币进一步贬值;3中美息差的缩小短期内会导致人民币贬值,在长期则会导致人民币升值;4风险溢价下降短期内会导致人民币贬值,在长期却会导致人民币升值,且长期人民币升值容易贬值难。

人民币汇率预期的ARCH效应分析

使用人民币NDF(无本金交割远期交易 )汇率作为人民币汇率预期的代理变量 ,使用ARCH(AutoregressiveConditionalHeteroskedastic)模型族研究其波动特征 .结果表明 ,人民币汇率预期存在ARCH效应 ,具有尖峰、厚尾、波动群集性和非对称性等特征 .这些特征要求在应对人民币升值或贬值冲击时 ,在保持汇率基本稳定的前提下 ,应使汇率更具灵活性 ,适度扩大人民币汇率的浮动区间并逐步改善人民币汇率的形成机制 .

个体投资者视角下汇率沟通对人民币汇率预期的影响研究——基于个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”渠道的分析

本文从外汇市场个体投资者的视角出发,考察汇率沟通能否基于个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”渠道影响其汇率预期。本文首先应用SVAR模型考察了汇率沟通、表征个体投资者“关注”及“情绪”的人民币搜索指数和NDF汇率的关系。结果表明,汇率沟通会导致搜索指数下降,即降低个体投资者关注及情绪水平。进一步,本文应用EGARCH模型,考察了搜索指数、汇率沟通及两者交乘项对NDF汇率的影响,结果表明正向沟通同搜索指数的交乘项对NDF的均值水平存在负向冲击。而负向沟通及中性沟通同搜索指数的交乘项对NDF的影响不显著。本文经验结论表明汇率沟通能有效影响个体投资者的“关注”和“情绪”水平,而正向汇率沟通能进一步抑制贬值预期。

人民币国际化、人民币汇率与汇率预期的互动效果——基于Markov区制转换VAR的实证研究

本文选取2006年10月至2015年10月间的月度数据,运用Markov区制转换VAR模型(MS-VAR)中的参数估计和脉冲响应函数,实证分析不同区制状态下人民币国际化、人民币汇率与汇率预期之间的动态关系。研究表明,人民币国际化、汇率与汇率预期在一定程度内呈同向变化,但变量间互动效果在不同的区制时有所区别;总体而言,相较于经济平缓状态,剧烈经济波动在一定程度上会抑制人民币国际化进程和人民币汇率、汇率预期的提升空间。

人民币参考一篮子货币机制的实证分析

本文研究2005年7月21日以来新人民币汇率制度的运行状况。回归结果初步表明,汇改后的10个月里,人民币似乎仍然钉住美元。Chow检验表明,自2006年2月起人民币汇率制度已发生结构性变化。子样本回归表明,人民币汇率制度已由钉住美元有序地过渡到参考一篮子货币。人民币汇率制度改革是一个动态的、循序渐进的过程,人民币灵活性不断加强。