Export fluctuation and overcapacity in China’s manufacturing industry--The inspection of the causes of excess capacity from the perspective of external demand

Intuitively speaking,there is an inverse proportional relationship between exports and overcapacity,which means in export’s busy season enterprises would expand output and improve capacity utilisation rate but control yields to avoid dull sale in slack season,causing exacerbated excess capacity.However,this is just the reflections of“sales effect”on overcapacity by export fluctuation.For some enterprises,there is indeed“competition effect”which may alleviate overcapacity because enterprises face even more fierce domestic competition for the sake of weak exports and may increase the utilisation load of existing capacity in order to cut costs.A test is conducted in this paper to verify the relationship between export fluctuation and excess capacity based on data of China's manufacturing industry from 2001 to 2013.The overall results indicate that export fluctuation is not the significant cause for excess capacity.In the small and medium-sized enterprises or in industries with higher proportion of non-state capital,the negative relationship between exports and excess capacity is more obvious,with“sales effect”taking a dominant position.On the other hand,under the influence of“competition effect”,the relationship between the two may be positive.Thus,external demand shocks exert different influence on the alleviation of excess capacity of different industries,and extensively driven exports may not have anticipated effect on the dissolution of the excess capacity.To regulate overcapacity with the aid of external market,a fair and orderly competition environment should be provided to the export subjects of different size and ownerships.

Empirical Research on the Influence of Export Market Diversification on Total Factor Productivity: Based on the Perspective of Trade Protection

This paper mainly explores the impact of export market diversification as an important measure to deal with trade friction on firms total factor productivity.Firstly,this article focuses on the theoretical analysis of the impact mechanism,including risk diversification,reversal effect and spillover effect.Based on the sample data of Chinese manufacturing export enterprises from 2000 to 2007,this paper conducts an empirical test on the relationship between export market diversification and total factor productivity.The result indicates that export market diversification has a significant positive effect on the total factor productivity of enterprises.After considering the endogenous problem,by controlling the fixed effects,using the two-stage least square method and changing the duration of the sample for robustness analysis,the results are still consistent.In addition,the role of diversification policy in total factor productivity presents heterogeneous characteristics in terms of different types of enterprise ownership,export intensity,industry competition,trade methods,and the development degree of exporting market.Accordingly,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.