Risk analysis of extended reach wells in the Liuhua Oilfield,South China Sea,based on comprehensive fuzzy evaluation method

Drilling engineering has great uncertainty and it always involves huge investment and high risk. Risk analysis of extended reach drilling （ERD） is very important to prevent complex failures and to improve drilling efficiency. Nowadays there are few reports on how to analyze quantitatively the drilling risk for extended reach wells （ERWs）. Based on the fuzzy set theory, a comprehensive fuzzy evaluation model for analyzing risks of ERD is proposed in this paper. Well B6ERW07 is a planned 8,000-meter ERW with a high ratio of horizontal displacement （HD） to vertical depth （VD） in the Liuhua Oilfield, the South China Sea, China. On the basis of the evaluation model developed in this study, the risk for drilling Well B6ERW07 was evaluated before drilling. The evaluation result shows that the success rate of drilling this well is predicted to be 51.9%, providing important rational and scientific information for the decisionmakers.

Testing and Evaluation for Web Usability Based on Extended Markov Chain Model

As the increasing popularity and complexity of Web applications and the emergence of their new characteristics, the testing and maintenance of large, complex Web applications are becoming more complex and difficult. Web applications generally contain lots of pages and are used by enormous users. Statistical testing is an effective way of ensuring their quality. Web usage can be accurately described by Markov chain which has been proved to be an ideal model for software statistical testing. The results of unit testing can be utilized in the latter stages, which is an important strategy for bottom-to-top integration testing, and the other improvement of extended Markov chain model (EMM) is to present the error type vector which is treated as a part of page node. this paper also proposes the algorithm for generating test cases of usage paths. Finally, optional usage reliability evaluation methods and an incremental usability regression testing model for testing and evaluation are presented. Key words statistical testing - evaluation for Web usability - extended Markov chain model (EMM) - Web log mining - reliability evaluation CLC number TP311. 5 Foundation item: Supported by the National Defence Research Project (No. 41315. 9. 2) and National Science and Technology Plan (2001BA102A04-02-03)Biography: MAO Cheng-ying (1978-), male, Ph.D. candidate, research direction: software testing. Research direction: advanced database system, software testing, component technology and data mining.

Functionality evaluation of system of systems architecture based on extended influence diagrams

System of systems architecture（SoSA） has received increasing emphasis by scholars since Zachman ignited its flame in 1987. Given its complexity and abstractness, it is critical to validate and evaluate SoSA to ensure requirements have been met.Multiple qualities are discussed in the literature of SoSA evaluation, while research on functionality is scarce. In order to assess SoSA functionality, an extended influence diagram（EID） is developed in this paper. Meanwhile, a simulation method is proposed to elicit the conditional probabilities in EID through designing and executing SoSA. An illustrative anti-missile architecture case is introduced for EID development, architecture design, and simulation.

Extension Multi-factorial Evaluation Method on Water Quality Early-warning

Extension multi-factorial evaluation method was used in water quality early-earning in Yincungang River based on MATLAB. The results showed that water quality in summer was safe,while that in other three seasons were in pre-warning state with the order of winter > spring > autumn.

Evaluation Procedure for Quality Consistency of Generic Nifedipine Extended-Release Tablets Based on the Impurity Profile

A procedure to evaluate the quality consistency of generic drugs based on the impurity profile and the similarity analysis methods was presented in this paper. Nifedipine extended-release tablets from six generic factories of China were used to evaluate the uniformity with the original drug in the study. The procedure includes: choice of chromatographic methods, data collection and conformity test, evaluation of intra-batch similarity of drugs, evaluation of generic drugs with the original drug and weighted similarity evaluation of generic drugs. The data were collected via high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), and then calculated by correlation coefficient, cosine, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA). It is more suitable to use peak areas as the vector when calculating the similarity of impurity profile. After weighting the peak areas of the unspecified impurities in further evaluation of the generic quality, the generic level of different factories was differentiated and the best generic factory was picked out.

Evaluation of rational extent lymphadenectomy for local advanced gastric cancer

Based upon studies from randomized clinical trials, the extended （D2） lymph node dissection is now recommended as a standard procedure for local advanced gastric cancer worldwide. However, the rational extent lymphadenectomy for local advanced gastric cancer has remained a topic of debate in the past decades. Due to the limitation of low metastatic rate in para-aortic nodes （PAN） in JCOG9501, the clinical benefit of D2＋ para-aortic nodal dissection （PAND） for patients with stage T4 and/or stage N3 disease, which is very common in China and other countries except Japan and Korea, cannot be determined. Furthermore, the role of splenectomy for complete resection of No.10 and No.l I nodes has been controversial, and however, the final results from the randomized trial ofJCOG0110 have yet to be completed. Gastric cancer with the No.14 and No.13 lymph node metastasis is defined as MI stage in the current version of the Japanese classification. We propose that D2~No.14v and ＋No.13 lymphadenectomy may be an option in a potentially curative gastrectomy for tumors with apparent metastasis to the No.6 nodes or infiltrate to duodenum. The examined lymph node and extranodal metastasis are significantly associated with the survival of gastric cancer patients.

基于Extend的物流运输组织动态仿真

为更好地优化物流运输组织模式并对运输方案进行绩效评估,利用仿真软件Extend开发物流运输组织与运输方案绩效评估系统,实现物流运输组织的动态仿真.该系统采用的变结构模式可根据实际情况灵活确定运输组织模式,实现整个物流运输组织过程的可视化,及时与该系统进行交互的实时跟踪、并行显示和数据传输.以南京到釜山的货物运输为例,说明物流运输组织的动态仿真能够解决物流运输组织模式的实时优化和对运输方案进行实时绩效评估.

案例分析:兰州拉面感官评价原理与方法

研究中华传统食品制造过程和产品感官评价方法的理论依据是建立标准体系的一项基础性工作。通过对兰州拉面感官评价原理与方法课题设计过程的分析及对应研究结果的剖析,系统介绍研究过程对产品制作、感官评价及消费调查的设计理念;提出感官评价方法的理论依据,结合实验设计和统计分析对基于理论依据所做的实验做了统计学验证;开展市场消费调查、顾客问卷分析,了解产业和消费者对感官评价和质量控制的具体技术需要。通过系统的研发过程分析,进一步探讨感官评价方法的理论依据,质量控制过程的逻辑思路,初步形成了兰州拉面感官评价方法及标准框架。以此为传统食品的工业化、市场化开发,满足消费者对传统食品的质量和感官需求,提供研究思路和借鉴。

The Application of Extended Reality in Treating Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Autism Spectrum Disorder(ASD)is a common neurodevelopmental disorder in children,characterized by social interaction,communication difficulties,and repetitive and stereotyped behaviors.Existing intervention methods have limitations,such as requiring long treatment periods and needing to be more convenient to implement.Extended Reality(XR)technology offers a virtual environment to enhance children's social,communication,and self-regulation skills.This paper compares XR theoretical models,application examples,and intervention effects.The study reveals that XR intervention therapy is mainly based on cognitive rehabilitation,teaching,and social-emotional learning theories.It utilizes algorithms,models,artificial intelligence(AI),eye-tracking,and other technologies for interaction,achieving diverse intervention outcomes.Participants showed effective improvement in competency barriers using XR-based multimodal interactive platforms.However,Mixed Reality(MR)technology still requires further development.Future research should explore multimsodal interaction technologies combining XR and AI,optimize models,prioritize the development of MR intervention scenarios,and sustain an optimal intervention level.

CFSv2对浙江省延伸期逐日降水预报性能评估及解释应用初探

利用CFSv2长序列回报资料和近6 a实时预报数据,系统分析了模式对浙江短中期(Short-medium Range,SMR,1~10 d)和延伸期(Extended Range,ER,11~30 d)逐日降水的预测性能,并基于系统误差订正(Systematic Bias Correction,SBC)技术开展了解释应用。结果表明:(1)模式回报技巧在SMR时段快速衰减,而在ER时段的衰减明显趋缓;SMR时段的相关系数远高于ER时段,但这两个时段的均方根误差较为接近;(2)从季节演变来看,模式技巧在秋冬季较高而在春夏季相对较低;(3)模式回报结果表现出显著的系统性偏差,这一偏差在各个起报日(提前1~30 d起报)中稳定存在,采用SBC技术开展解释应用,发现订正后模式的回报技巧在ER时段显著提升;(4)进一步将SBC技术应用于实时预报,发现实时预报的技巧也得到了一定的改善,且ER时段的改进效果更为显著。

非遗文化服务设计中的接触点优化方法研究

目的 为提升用户服务体验,探索服务设计接触点的优化方法,扩展服务设计理论。方法 首先,以服务流程分析为基础,识别非遗文化服务过程的接触点,由用户对服务接触点满意度评价计算引申重要性后,分析并确定关键服务接触点;其次,进行关键服务接触点失效分析,嵌入用户感知评价作为三种风险因素权重计算关键服务接触点风险值,输出改进优先级排序矩阵;最后,依据分析结果对非遗文化服务设计方案进行制定与验证评价。结论 搭建服务接触点优化设计方法,通过福州漆艺文化服务设计为例验证表明,该方法可以有效评估关键接触点,全面分析关键服务接触点的失效性,提供服务接触点优化设计方向,进而改善用户体验流畅感,提高服务品质,藉此为非遗文化服务设计提供方法借鉴。

扩展帝国竞争算法求解分布式不相关并行机车间调度问题

针对考虑加工约束的分布式不相关并行机车间调度问题,以总运输成本、工厂间并行机齐停评价函数和工件种类平均切换次数均衡评价函数为优化目标,提出一种扩展帝国竞争算法进行求解。该算法在原始帝国竞争算法的基础上,增加了适于工厂分配的初始化工厂-工件序列群;根据传统帝国竞争算法容易陷入局部最优的缺点,将较劣序列同化分为了外部同化机制和内部同化机制,采用局部和全局相结合的搜索方式实现扩展帝国竞争算法的智能搜索行为;采用部分匹配交叉和单点变异更新工厂-工件序列群,保证工厂-工件序列的多样性。最后设计3个不同规模12个算例,通过仿真实验验证所提算法的有效性,同时对比相关领域研究成果验证了该算法在求解分布式多目标不相关并行机调度问题方面的优越性。

引入公平性信息的卫生经济性评价方法与研究进展

传统的卫生经济性评价主要侧重于“效率(efficiency)”最大化,对“公平(equity)”因素的定量考量较为不足。为在传统经济性评价的基础上进一步定量评价不同公平性因素,引入公平性信息的经济性评价方法体系逐渐发展起来。本文梳理总结了5种将公平性考量纳入经济性评价的方法,其中对应用比较广泛的公平加权法、分布式成本-效果分析和扩展成本-效果分析3种方法进行了详细介绍,包括基本理念、数据需求、优缺点等。引入公平性信息的经济性评价方法将为决策者定量权衡医疗资源配置的“效率最大化”和“分配公平”提供有效工具,在我国具有较好的发展前景,但缺乏相关基础数据是当前限制此类方法实践应用的主要挑战之一,也是未来相关领域研究者需要突破的研究壁垒。

济南市北跨新城区地质环境适宜性评价

在研究地质环境背景的基础上,构建了济南北跨新城区地质环境适宜性敏感因子—综合指数模型,选取黄河悬河稳定性作为敏感因子,从水文、水文地质、工程地质和环境地质等4个方面选取重要地表水源、地下水富水性、地下水位最小埋深、活动断裂、地基承载力、软土、液化土、采空塌陷等作为重要因子,采用专家打分法确定重要因子的权重,对地质环境适宜性进行了综合评价。结果表明:适宜区和较适宜区占总面积的72.37%,可满足新城区规划建设的需要。该评价结果可从地质环境的角度为新城规划建设提供科学依据,实现城市建设与地质环境保护协调发展。

离子色谱法测定水中锂离子的不确定度评定

离子色谱法作为水中锂离子的检测方法之一,测量结果的准确性受多种因素的影响,为了减少误差同时提高检测准确度,评定离子色谱法测定锂离子的不确定度尤为重要。研究围绕水中锂离子测定的准确性,从4个方面系统地进行了不确定度评估:重复性测量、标准溶液的配制过程、标准曲线的线性回归分析以及离子色谱仪器。依据既定的标准,独立计算了各分量的不确定度,通过计算得出总体的合成不确定度、扩展不确定度指标。结果表明,经由该方法所获得的水中锂离子浓度的合成相对标准不确定度为0.0093,而相应的扩展不确定度为0.019 mg/L。其中对合成相对标准不确定度影响最大的两个不确定度分量为标准溶液的配制过程及离子色谱仪器。

赵东ODB平台海洋模块钻机底座完整性评价研究

随着我国海上平台逐渐进入超期服役状态,海洋模块钻机超龄现象日趋严重,因此针对超期服役模块钻机的完整性评价尤为重要。由于长期海洋环境的作用、材料的老化、交变载荷、持续处于动态的大载荷状态下,海洋模块钻机底座承载安全受到关注。根据实际测绘数据建立超期服役海洋模块钻机底座有限元模型,结合静、动态试验测试,评价超期服役模块钻机底座的承载能力与工作性能。该方法对于超期服役模块钻机底座完整性评价具有指导意义。

云南传统马鞍式伸臂木梁拱桥力学分析

马鞍式伸臂木梁桥是云南独有的一种古木桥型式,大多数依据工匠的经验设计而成,对该古木桥的结构研究将有助于对古建筑的保护,并能弘扬我国的传统文化。本文以云南省现存体积最大,保存最完好的马鞍式伸臂木梁拱桥——通京桥为研究对象,通过建立其1∶10的结构缩尺模型,使用现代桥梁的安全性评定方法分析其结构的使用安全性及合理性。结果表明:通京桥的榫卯结构完全符合现代桥梁的评定方式,说明传统的工匠艺术具有一定的科学性与合理性,对现在的新型木结构具有一定的启发和借鉴意义,同时有利于古建筑结构原理的保护和传承。

EPC模式下既有公共建筑绿色改造综合效益评价

推进既有公共建筑绿色改造,是“十四五”建筑节能发展规划的重点任务。EPC模式的运用,有助于建筑绿色改造的发展。为了这类EPC项目能实现预期目标,还需对其综合效益进行评价。本文从经济、环境和社会三方面构建了综合效益评价指标体系,通过熵权法确定指标权重,结合改进的物元可拓法建立评价模型,运用模型进行了实例分析,评价结果与项目实际相符。

气压传感器不确定度评定及现场校准方法研究

为解决现场核查中气压传感器超差的问题,更准确地表征其测量结果,在现场核查环境中运用GUM法对PTB210型号气压传感器进行不确定度分析与评定,并研究其现场校准方法。评定结果表明,在500 hPa、800 hPa、1 050 hPa的条件下,测量结果的扩展不确定度为0.12 hPa,符合气象业务技术要求。现场校准方法能够对超差仪器进行调试,具有操作简单、通信稳定的特点。对气压传感器的不确定度评定及现场校准方法展开研究,创新性地采用现场核查专用设备,选取与其相同的测试点,模拟相似测量环境,设计稳定便捷的连接方式。该成果填补了气压传感器在现场核查中不确定度评定和现场校准方法的空白,为气象、航空、农业等领域的气压不确定度评定提供了借鉴,也为湿度、温度等其他项目的现场校准提供了参考。

渤海边际油田延长测试新模式设计与应用

为进一步评价产能,落实地质储量规模及潜山底水水体大小,降低油藏开发风险,在渤海某油田勘探评价井的基础上采用延长测试的方式进行勘探开发一体化评价。结合该井的地理位置及作业特点,创新使用“作业支持平台+环保船转运”的模式开展施工。在作业支持平台上搭建延长测试生产流程,并设置临时储油装置,利用外输软管将原油外输至环保船上,多条环保船轮流转运至生产平台,在摸清油藏动态生产规律的同时,回收作业成本。该模式流程简单、灵活快捷、成本低,是渤海边际油田延长测试作业模式的又一次探索和创新,具有借鉴意义。