Stochastic Model of Dengue: Analysing the Probability of Extinction and LLN

In this article, we develop and analyze a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model to study the resurgence of dengue. We also explore the large population asymptotic behavior of probabilistic model of dengue using the law of large numbers (LLN). Initially, we calculate and estimate the probabilities of dengue extinction and major outbreak occurrence using multi-type Galton-Watson branching processes. Subsequently, we apply the LLN to examine the convergence of the stochastic model towards the deterministic model. Finally, theoretical numerical simulations are conducted exploration to validate our findings. Under identical conditions, our numerical results demonstrate that dengue could vanish in the stochastic model while persisting in the deterministic model. The highlighting of the law of large numbers through numerical simulations indicates from what population size a deterministic model should be considered preferable.

A New Approach for the Calculation of Slope Failure Probability with Fuzzy Limit-State Functions

This study presents an innovative approach to calculating the failure probability of slopes by incorporating fuzzylimit-state functions,a method that significantly enhances the accuracy and efficiency of slope stability analysis.Unlike traditional probabilistic techniques,this approach utilizes a least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)optimized with a grey wolf optimizer(GWO)and K-fold cross-validation(CV)to approximate the limit-statefunction,thus reducing computational complexity.The novelty of this work lies in its application to one-dimensional(1D),two-dimensional(2D),and three-dimensional(3D)slope models,demonstrating its versatility andhigh precision.The proposed method consistently achieves error margins within 3%of Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)results,while substantially reducing computation time,particularly for 2D and 3D models.This makes theapproach highly practical for real-world engineering applications.Furthermore,by applying fuzzy mathematics tohandle uncertainties in geotechnical properties,the method offers a more realistic and comprehensive understandingof slope stability.As water is the main factor influencing the stability of slopes,this aspect is investigatedby calculating the phreatic line after the change in water level.Relevant examples are used to show that the failureprobability of a slope under water wading condition can increase by more than 20%(increase rates in 1D,2D and3D conditions being 25%,27%and 31%,respectively)compared with the natural condition.The influence ofdiverse fuzzy membership functions—linear,normal,and Cauchy—on failure probability is also considered.Thisresearch not only provides a strategy for better calculation of the slope failure probability but also pioneers theintegration of computational intelligence,fuzzy logic and fluid-dynamics in geotechnical engineering,presentingan innovative and efficient tool for slope stability analysis.

The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus clouds.Accurately obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization scheme.In this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy simulation.The results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved variables.The probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous studies.Further analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the future.The results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.

Time series prediction of reservoir bank landslide failure probability considering the spatial variability of soil properties

Historically,landslides have been the primary type of geological disaster worldwide.Generally,the stability of reservoir banks is primarily affected by rainfall and reservoir water level fluctuations.Moreover,the stability of reservoir banks changes with the long-term dynamics of external disastercausing factors.Thus,assessing the time-varying reliability of reservoir landslides remains a challenge.In this paper,a machine learning(ML)based approach is proposed to analyze the long-term reliability of reservoir bank landslides in spatially variable soils through time series prediction.This study systematically investigated the prediction performances of three ML algorithms,i.e.multilayer perceptron(MLP),convolutional neural network(CNN),and long short-term memory(LSTM).Additionally,the effects of the data quantity and data ratio on the predictive power of deep learning models are considered.The results show that all three ML models can accurately depict the changes in the time-varying failure probability of reservoir landslides.The CNN model outperforms both the MLP and LSTM models in predicting the failure probability.Furthermore,selecting the right data ratio can improve the prediction accuracy of the failure probability obtained by ML models.

Predicting the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property based on microscale rock mechanical experiments and accurate grain-based modeling

The exploration of Mars would heavily rely on Martian rocks mechanics and engineering technology.As the mechanical property of Martian rocks is uncertain,it is of utmost importance to predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property for the success of Mars exploration.In this paper,a fast and accurate probability distribution method for predicting the macroscale elastic modulus of Martian rocks was proposed by integrating the microscale rock mechanical experiments(micro-RME),accurate grain-based modeling(AGBM)and upscaling methods based on reliability principles.Firstly,the microstructure of NWA12564 Martian sample and elastic modulus of each mineral were obtained by micro-RME with TESCAN integrated mineral analyzer(TIMA)and nanoindentation.The best probability distribution function of the minerals was determined by Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)test.Secondly,based on best distribution function of each mineral,the Monte Carlo simulations(MCS)and upscaling methods were implemented to obtain the probability distribution of upscaled elastic modulus.Thirdly,the correlation between the upscaled elastic modulus and macroscale elastic modulus obtained by AGBM was established.The accurate probability distribution of the macroscale elastic modulus was obtained by this correlation relationship.The proposed method can predict the probability distribution of Martian rocks mechanical property with any size and shape samples.

Probability Distribution Characteristics of Strong Nonlinear Waves Under Typhoon Conditions in the Northern South China Sea

The generation and propagation mechanism of strong nonlinear waves in the South China Sea is an essential research area. In this study, the third-generation wave model WAVEWATCH Ⅲ is employed to simulate wave fields under extreme sea states. The model, integrating the ST6 source term, is validated against observed data, demonstrating its credibility. The spatial distribution of the occurrence probability of strong nonlinear waves during typhoons is shown, and the waves in the straits and the northeastern part of the South China Sea show strong nonlinear characteristics. The high-order spectral model HOS-ocean is employed to simulate the random wave surface series beneath five different platform areas. The waves during the typhoon exhibit strong nonlinear characteristics, and freak waves exist. The space-varying probability model is established to describe the short-term probability distribution of nonlinear wave series. The exceedance probability distributions of the wave surface beneath different platform areas are compared and analyzed. The results show that with an increase in the platform area, the probability of a strong nonlinear wave beneath the platform increases.

Correlates of avian extinction timing around the world since 1500 CE

Avian extinctions have been relatively well documented in modern history,and in the past millennia,more bird species are known to have gone extinct than species in any other vertebrate class.We examined the biological correlates of extinction timing among 216 bird species that recently were either observed to go extinct or dis-appeared since 1500 CE,performing a novel analysis for examining the extinction trends of birds by modelling traits against the number of years since present day during which species have been extinct.We analyzed a broad range of traits and characteristics that have previously been associated with extinction and extinction risk in birds and compared the effects of these traits simultaneously against one another.In order to provide a more comprehensive and robust assessment of trait-based drivers of global bird loss in comparison to prior studies,we included extinct species recognized by any of the three major avian taxonomies as well as those birds that lack recent confirmed sightings and are at least functionally extinct.We found that insular,flightless,larger-bodied,ecologically specialized species,as well as those with high aspect ratio wings,were likely to go extinct earlier in time.Besides identifying the key locations and time periods over the past five centuries where birds have gone extinct,and highlighting specific extinction-prone taxonomic groups,we provide a complete and unified dataset of traits used in this study that helps address the lack of extensive public data on modern extinct species.

Probability Laws Derived from the Gamma Function

Several densities or probability laws of continuous random variables derive from the Euler Gamma function. These laws form the basis of sampling theory, namely hypothesis testing and estimation. Namely the gamma, beta, and Student law, through the chi-square law and the normal law are all distributions resulting from applications of Euleur functions.

On the Application of Mixed Models of Probability and Convex Set for Time-Variant Reliability Analysis

In time-variant reliability problems,there are a lot of uncertain variables from different sources.Therefore,it is important to consider these uncertainties in engineering.In addition,time-variant reliability problems typically involve a complexmultilevel nested optimization problem,which can result in an enormous amount of computation.To this end,this paper studies the time-variant reliability evaluation of structures with stochastic and bounded uncertainties using a mixed probability and convex set model.In this method,the stochastic process of a limit-state function with mixed uncertain parameters is first discretized and then converted into a timeindependent reliability problem.Further,to solve the double nested optimization problem in hybrid reliability calculation,an efficient iterative scheme is designed in standard uncertainty space to determine the most probable point(MPP).The limit state function is linearized at these points,and an innovative random variable is defined to solve the equivalent static reliability analysis model.The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by two benchmark numerical examples and a practical engineering problem.

Adaptive Update Distribution Estimation under Probability Byzantine Attack

The secure and normal operation of distributed networks is crucial for accurate parameter estimation.However,distributed networks are frequently susceptible to Byzantine attacks.Considering real-life scenarios,this paper investigates a probability Byzantine(PB)attack,utilizing a Bernoulli distribution to simulate the attack probability.Historically,additional detection mechanisms are used to mitigate such attacks,leading to increased energy consumption and burdens on distributed nodes,consequently diminishing operational efficiency.Differing from these approaches,an adaptive updating distributed estimation algorithm is proposed to mitigate the impact of PB attacks.In the proposed algorithm,a penalty strategy is initially incorporated during data updates to weaken the influence of the attack.Subsequently,an adaptive fusion weight is employed during data fusion to merge the estimations.Additionally,the reason why this penalty term weakens the attack has been analyzed,and the performance of the proposed algorithm is validated through simulation experiments.

An equivalent target plate damage probability calculation mathematics model and damage evaluation method

Aiming at the requirement of damage testing and evaluation of equivalent target plate based on the explosion of intelligent ammunition, this paper proposes a novel method for damage testing and evaluation method of circumferential equivalent target plate. Leveraging the dispersion characteristics parameters of fragment, we establish a calculation model of the fragment power situation and the damage calculation model under the condition of fragment ultimate penetration equivalent target plate. The damage model of equivalent target plate involves the fragment dispersion density, the local perforation damage criterion, the tearing damage model, and the damage probability. We use the camera to obtain the image of the equivalent target plate with fragment perforation, and research the algorithm of fragment distribution position recognition and fragment perforation area calculation method on the equivalent target plate by image processing technology. Based on the obtained parameters of the breakdown position and perforation area of fragments on equivalent target plate, we apply to damage calculation model of equivalent target plate, and calculate the damage probability of each equivalent target plate, and use the combined probabilistic damage calculation method to obtain the damage evaluation results of the circumferential equivalent target plate in an intelligent ammunition explosion experiment. Through an experimental testing, we verify the feasibility and rationality of the proposed damage evaluation method by comparison, the calculation results can reflect the actual damage effect of the equivalent target plate.

High-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer based on probability density evolution method

This paper proposed an efficient research method for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion in the barrel of a truck-mounted howitzer.Firstly,the dynamic model of projectile motion is established considering the flexible deformation of the barrel and the interaction between the projectile and the barrel.Subsequently,the accuracy of the dynamic model is verified based on the external ballistic projectile attitude test platform.Furthermore,the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is developed to high-dimensional uncertainty quantification of projectile motion.The engineering example highlights the results of the proposed method are consistent with the results obtained by the Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS).Finally,the influence of parameter uncertainty on the projectile disturbance at muzzle under different working conditions is analyzed.The results show that the disturbance of the pitch angular,pitch angular velocity and pitch angular of velocity decreases with the increase of launching angle,and the random parameter ranges of both the projectile and coupling model have similar influence on the disturbance of projectile angular motion at muzzle.

Integrating host biological and ecological variables to predict probability of haemosporidian infection in raptors

Variations in host traits that influence their exposure and susceptibility may impact probability of vector-transmitted diseases.Therefore,identifying the predictors of infection probability is necessary to understand the risk of disease outbreaks during expanding environmental perturbation.Here,we conducted a large survey based on microscopic examination and molecular analysis of haemosporidian parasite infection in raptors rescued at the Beijing Raptor Rescue Centre.Combining these data with biological and ecological variables of the raptors,we determined predictors that affect the probability of haemosporidian infection using generalized linear mixed models and multimodel inference.Our results showed that infection probability exhibited considerable variation across host species in raptors,and body mass,sex,and evolutionary history played relatively weaker roles in driving infection probability.Instead,activity pattern,age,geographic range size,migration distance,and nest type were important predictors of the probability of haemosporidian infection,and the role of each predictor differed in the three main haemosporidian genera(Plasmodium,Haemoproteus,and Leucocytozoon).This macro-ecological analysis will add to our understanding of host traits that influence the probability of avian haemosporidian infection and will help inform risk of emerging diseases.

Secrecy Outage Probability Minimization in Wireless-Powered Communications Using an Improved Biogeography-Based Optimization-Inspired Recurrent Neural Network

This paper focuses on wireless-powered communication systems,which are increasingly relevant in the Internet of Things(IoT)due to their ability to extend the operational lifetime of devices with limited energy.The main contribution of the paper is a novel approach to minimize the secrecy outage probability(SOP)in these systems.Minimizing SOP is crucial for maintaining the confidentiality and integrity of data,especially in situations where the transmission of sensitive data is critical.Our proposed method harnesses the power of an improved biogeography-based optimization(IBBO)to effectively train a recurrent neural network(RNN).The proposed IBBO introduces an innovative migration model.The core advantage of IBBO lies in its adeptness at maintaining equilibrium between exploration and exploitation.This is accomplished by integrating tactics such as advancing towards a random habitat,adopting the crossover operator from genetic algorithms(GA),and utilizing the global best(Gbest)operator from particle swarm optimization(PSO)into the IBBO framework.The IBBO demonstrates its efficacy by enabling the RNN to optimize the system parameters,resulting in significant outage probability reduction.Through comprehensive simulations,we showcase the superiority of the IBBO-RNN over existing approaches,highlighting its capability to achieve remarkable gains in SOP minimization.This paper compares nine methods for predicting outage probability in wireless-powered communications.The IBBO-RNN achieved the highest accuracy rate of 98.92%,showing a significant performance improvement.In contrast,the standard RNN recorded lower accuracy rates of 91.27%.The IBBO-RNN maintains lower SOP values across the entire signal-to-noise ratio(SNR)spectrum tested,suggesting that the method is highly effective at optimizing system parameters for improved secrecy even at lower SNRs.

High polarization extinction ratio achieved base on thin-film lithium niobate

This article introduces a method of achieving high polarization extinction ratio using a subwavelength grating structure on a lithium niobate thin film platform,and the chip is formed on the surface of the lithium nio⁃bate thin film.The chip,with a length of just 20μm,achieved a measured polarization extinction ratio of 29 dB at 1550 nm wavelength.This progress not only proves the possibility of achieving a high extinction ratio on a lith⁃ium niobate thin film platform,but also offers important technical references for future work on polarization beam splitters,integrated fiber optic gyroscopes,and so on.

A self-organization formation configuration based assignment probability and collision detection

The formation control of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles(multi-UAVs)has always been a research hotspot.Based on the straight line trajectory,a multi-UAVs target point assignment algorithm based on the assignment probability is proposed to achieve the shortest overall formation path of multi-UAVs with low complexity and reduce the energy consumption.In order to avoid the collision between UAVs in the formation process,the concept of safety ball is introduced,and the collision detection based on continuous motion of two time slots and the lane occupation detection after motion is proposed to avoid collision between UAVs.Based on the idea of game theory,a method of UAV motion form setting based on the maximization of interests is proposed,including the maximization of self-interest and the maximization of formation interest is proposed,so that multi-UAVs can complete the formation task quickly and reasonably with the linear trajectory assigned in advance.Finally,through simulation verification,the multi-UAVs target assignment algorithm based on the assignment probability proposed in this paper can effectively reduce the total path length,and the UAV motion selection method based on the maximization interests can effectively complete the task formation.

Prediction and Output Estimation of Pattern Moving in Non-Newtonian Mechanical Systems Based on Probability Density Evolution

A prediction framework based on the evolution of pattern motion probability density is proposed for the output prediction and estimation problem of non-Newtonian mechanical systems,assuming that the system satisfies the generalized Lipschitz condition.As a complex nonlinear system primarily governed by statistical laws rather than Newtonian mechanics,the output of non-Newtonian mechanics systems is difficult to describe through deterministic variables such as state variables,which poses difficulties in predicting and estimating the system’s output.In this article,the temporal variation of the system is described by constructing pattern category variables,which are non-deterministic variables.Since pattern category variables have statistical attributes but not operational attributes,operational attributes are assigned to them by posterior probability density,and a method for analyzing their motion laws using probability density evolution is proposed.Furthermore,a data-driven form of pattern motion probabilistic density evolution prediction method is designed by combining pseudo partial derivative(PPD),achieving prediction of the probability density satisfying the system’s output uncertainty.Based on this,the final prediction estimation of the system’s output value is realized by minimum variance unbiased estimation.Finally,a corresponding PPD estimation algorithm is designed using an extended state observer(ESO)to estimate the parameters to be estimated in the proposed prediction method.The effectiveness of the parameter estimation algorithm and prediction method is demonstrated through theoretical analysis,and the accuracy of the algorithm is verified by two numerical simulation examples.

Development of a Gas Monitoring and Removal Device to Reduce the Effect of Extinction Coefficient

At present, the use of furnaces in the northern rural areas of China is very common, due to the insufficient burning of fuel (coal, wood, etc.), carbon monoxide (CO) and other toxic gases are produced, CO colorless and odorless, difficult to find in time, and bring huge safety risks to the life and health of residents. Based on the above problems, we developed a gas monitoring and removal device which could reduce the effect of extinction coefficient. The device was composed of ash settling area, gas disturbance area, spectral absorption identification area and gas removal area. After the air entered the device, the large-size particles were first settled to purify the solid particles in the gas, the gas was disturbed through the multi-layer separator to achieve the turbulent production of the gas, and then the gas was identified through the optical element of the direct absorption spectrum technology. When the toxic gas component reached the threshold, the spray device would automatically start for chemical removal to achieve the role of purifying the gas. At the same time, the device’s alarm could be alerted by buzzer and flash to remind users to evacuate in time. By improving the optical device, the effect of extinction coefficient on measurement was reduced and the monitoring accuracy was improved.

Variations in Probability Assessment With Atypical Scenarios

Probability assessment in some scenarios may involve unusual aspects such as requiring certain values for some events and extremely high or low probabilities in other cases.

Adjuvant chemotherapy for isolated resectable colorectal lung metastasis: A retrospective study using inverse probability treatment weighting propensity analysis

BACKGROUND The benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy(ACT)for patients with no evidence of disease after pulmonary metastasis resection(PM)from colorectal cancer(CRC)remains controversial.AIM To assess the efficacy of ACT in patients after PM resection for CRC.METHODS This study included 96 patients who underwent pulmonary metastasectomy for CRC at a single institution between April 2008 and July 2023.The primary end-point was overall survival(OS);secondary endpoints included cancer-specific survival(CSS)and disease-free survival(DFS).An inverse probability of treat-ment-weighting(IPTW)analysis was conducted to address indication bias.Sur-vival outcomes compared using Kaplan-Meier curves,log-rank test,Cox regre-ssion and confirmed by propensity score-matching(PSM).RESULTS With a median follow-up of 27.5 months(range,18.3-50.4 months),the 5-year OS,CSS and DFS were 72.0%,74.4%and 51.3%,respectively.ACT had no significant effect on OS after PM resection from CRC[original cohort:P=0.08;IPTW:P=0.15].No differences were observed for CSS(P=0.12)and DFS(P=0.68)between the ACT and non-ACT groups.Multivariate analysis showed no association of ACT with better survival,while sublobar resection(HR=0.45;95%CI:0.20-1.00,P=0.049)and longer disease-free interval(HR=0.45;95%CI:0.20-0.98,P=0.044)were associated with improved survival.CONCLUSION ACT does not improve survival after PM resection for CRC.Further well-designed randomized controlled trials are needed to determine the optimal ACT regimen and duration.