Characteristics of extratropical cyclone variability in the Northern Hemisphere and their response to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice

Extratropical cyclones are critical weather systems that affect large-scale weather and climate changes at mid-high latitudes.However,prior research shows that there are still great difficulties in predicting extratropical cyclones for occurrence,frequency,and position.In this study,mean sea level pressure(MSLP)data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)reanalysis(ERA5)are used to calculate the variance statistics of the MSLP to reveal extratropical cyclone activity(ECA).Based on the analysis of the change characteristics of ECA in the Northern Hemisphere,the intrinsic link between ECA in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice is explored.The results show that the maximum ECA mainly occurs in winter over the mid-high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere.The maximum ECA changes in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic,which are the largest variations in the Northern Hemisphere,are independent of each other,and their mechanisms may be different.Furthermore,MSLP is a significant physical variable that affects ECA.The North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and North Pacific Index(NPI)are significant indices that impact ECA in the North Atlantic and North Pacific,respectively.The innovation of this paper is to explore the relationship between the activity of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and the abnormal changes in Arctic sea ice for the first time.The mechanism is that the abnormal changes in summer-autumn and winter Arctic sea ice lead to the phase transition of the NPI and NAO,respectively,and then cause the occurrence of ECA in the North Pacific and North Atlantic,respectively.Arctic sea ice plays a crucial role in the ECA in the Northern Hemisphere by influencing the polar vortex and westerly jets.This is the first exploration of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere using Arctic sea ice,which can provide some references for the in-depth study and prediction of ECAs in the Northern Hemisphere.

Variations in Extratropical Cyclone Activity in Northern East Asia

Based on an improved objective cyclone detection and tracking algorithm, decadal variations in extratropical cyclones in northern East Asia are studied by using the ECMWF 40 Year Reanalysis （ERA-40） sea-level pressure data during 1958-2001. The results reveal that extratropieal cyclone activity has displayed clear seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in northern East Asia. Spring is the season when cyclones occur most frequently. The spatial distribution of extratropieal cyclones shows that cyclones occur mainly within the 40°- 50°N latitudinal band in northern East Asia, and the most frequent region of occurrence is in Mongolia. Furthermore, this study also reveals the fact that the frequency of extratropieal cyclones has significantly decreased in the lower latitude region of northern East Asia during 1958 2001, but deeadal variability has dominated in higher latitude bands, with frequent cyclone genesis. The intensity of extratropical cyclones has decreased on an annual and seasonal basis. Variation of the annual number of cyclones in northern East Asia is associated with the mean intensity of the baroelinie frontal zone, which is influenced by climate warming in the higher latitudes. Moreover, the dipole structure of extratopical cyclone change, with increases in the north and decreases in the southern part of northern East Asia, is related to the northward movement of the baroelinic frontal zone on either side of 110°E.

Energetics characteristics accounting for the low-level wind’s rapid enhancement associated with an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone over the western North Pacific Ocean

During mid-January 2011,a rarely seen twin-extratropical-cyclone event appeared over the western North Pacific Ocean.One of the twin cyclones developed into an extreme explosive extratropical cyclone(EEC),which was comparable to the intensity of a typhoon.Rotational and divergent wind kinetic energy(KE)analyses were applied to understand the low-level wind’s rapid enhancement associated with the cyclone.It was found that:(i)the total wind KE associated with the EEC showed a remarkable enhancement in the lower troposphere during the cyclone’s maximum development stage,with the maximum/minimum wind acceleration appearing in the southeastern/northwestern quadrant of the EEC;(ii)the rotational wind KE experienced an obvious increase,which corresponded to the total wind KE enhancement,whereas the divergent wind KE,which was much smaller than the rotational wind,mainly featured a decreasing trend;(iii)the rotational wind KE enhancement showed variational features consistent with the horizontal enlargement and upward stretching of the EEC;(iv)the nonorthogonal wind KE enhanced the total wind KE in regions with strong rotational wind,which resulted in the maximum lower-tropospheric maximum wind,whereas in regions with strong divergent wind it mainly reduced the total wind KE;(v)the northward transport of total wind KE and the rotational wind KE production due to the work done by pressure gradient force were dominant factors for the enhancement of winds associated with the EEC,particularly in its southeastern section.In contrast,an overall conversion from rotational wind KE to divergent wind KE decelerated the rotational wind enhancement.

A Numerical Study on the Effect of an Extratropical Cyclone on the Evolution of a Midlatitude Front

The extratropical transition （ET） of tropical cyclone （TC） Haima （2004） was simulated to understand the impact of TC on midlatitude frontal systems. Two experiments were conducted using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast （WRF） model. In the control run （CTL）, a vortex was extracted from the 24-hour pre-run output and then inserted into the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） global final （FNL） analysis as an initial condition, while TC circulation was removed from the initial conditions in the sensitivity run （NOTC）. Comparisons of the experiments demonstrate that the midlatitude front has a wider meridional extent in the NOTC run than that in the CTL run. Furthermore, the CTL run produces convection suppression to the southern side of the front due to strong cold advection related to the TC circulation. The easterly flow north of the TC not only decelerates the eastward displacement of the front and contracts its zonal scale but also transports more moisture westward and lifts the air along equivalent potential temperature surfaces ahead of the front. As a result, the ascending motion and diabatic heating are enhanced in the northeastern edge of the front, and the anticyclonic outflow in the upper-level is intensified. The increased pressure gradient and divergent ftow aloft strengthen the upper-level jet and distort the trough axis in a northwest-southeast orientation. The thermal contrast between the two systems and the dynamic contribution related to the TC circulation can facilitate scalar and rotational frontogenesis to modulate the frontal structure.

New method for detecting extratropical cyclones:the eight-section slope detecting method

An algorithm for identifying extratropical cyclones(ECs)on the basis of gridded data is proposed in this study.The algorithm,which is named the eight-section slope detecting(ESSD)method,hasfive key procedures to identify an EC by using the mean sea level pressure(MSLP)or geopotential height.They are:(i)finding the location of every minimum of the MSLP/geopotential-height;(ii)establishing a targeted box for each minimum;(iii)dividing the targeted box into eight subregions;(iv)calculating eight relative slopes within the eight sub-regions;(v)confirming an EC only if all eight relative slopes are above an appropriate threshold.Based on the 0.75°×0.75°ERAInterim reanalysis field,comparisons show that the ESSD method performs better in identifying ECs than the other three previous EC detection algorithms,as it can lower the error caused by mistaking a trough for an EC.Moreover,a test of detecting ECs in the Northern Hemisphere using the ESSD method repeated 500 times(randomly distributed across 40 years)shows that the accuracy of this method varies from 79%to 91%,with an annual mean accuracy of^85%.This means that the ESSD method can provide credible results with respect to EC identification.

A preliminary analysis of physical mechanism of transformation process from a landed typhoon into an extratropical cyclone

A diagnostic study is performed in the paper on the process of typhoon Norris (1980) transforming into an ex-tratropical cyclone after its landing over Southeast China. The main findings are as follows:The changes of kinetic energy are mainly attributed to the generation due to non-divergent wind. During the early stage of the typhoon landing, there exits only a small quantity of kinetic energy exchanging with the environment. And after it is transformed into an extratropical cyclone, a large amount of kinetic energy is exported from the system toward the environment.The horizontal and vertical flux-divergence terms of eddy available potenlial energy are the prominent sinks in the budgets of eddy kinetic energy. The generations of eddy kinetic energy due to both the barotropic and baroclinic processes are source terms. The former is remarkable during the initial stage. But after the depression is transformed into an extratropical cyclone, the roles of the generation by the barotropic and baroclinic processes are reversed, 1. e. , the latter has become more significant than the former.Diabatic heating is the most dominant heat source. The terms of vertical heat flux by cumulus and large-scale motion are the major sinks. And the latter is prominent after the system is transformed into an extratropical cycfone.

A Climatology of Extratropical Cyclones over East Asia During 1958-2001

A climatology of extratropical cyclones （ECs） over East Asia （20~ 75~N, 60^-160~E） is analyzed by applying an improved objective detection and tracking algorithm to the 4-time daily sea level pressure fields from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts （ECMWF） reanalysis data. A total of 12914 EC processes for the period of 1958-2001 are identified, with an EC database integrated and EC activities reanalyzed using the objective algorithm. The results reveal that there are three major cyclogenesis regions： West Siberian Plain, Mongolia （to the south of Lake Baikal）, and the coastal region of East China; whereas significant cyclolysis regions are observed in Siberia north of 60~N, Northeast China, and Okhotsk Se^Northwest Pacific. It is found that the EC lifetime is largely 1 7 days while winter ECs have the shortest lifespan. The ECs are the weakest in summer among the four seasons. Strong ECs often appear in West Siberia, Northeast China, and Okhotsk Sea-Northwest Pacific. Statistical analysis based on k-means clustering has identified 6 dominating trajectories in the area south of 55~N and east of 80~E, among which 4 tracks have important impacts on weather/climate in China. ECs occurring in spring （summer） tend to travel the longest （shortest）. They move the fastest in winter, and the slowest in summer. In winter, cyclones move fast in Northeast China, some areas of the Yangtze-Huaihe River region, and the south of Japan, with speed greater than 15 m s-1. Explosively-deepening cyclones are found to occur frequently along the east coast of China, Japan, and Northwest Pacific, but very few storms occur over the inland area. Bombs prefer to occur in winter, spring, and autumn. Their annual number and intensity in 1990 and 1992 in East Asia （EA） are smaller and weaker than their counterparts in North America.

A Diagnostic Study of Moist Potential Vorticity Generation in an Extratropical Cyclone

Moist potential vorticity (MPV) and its generation may be important in the development of mesoscale structures such as rainbands within cyclones. In an adiabatic and frictionless flow, MPV generation is possible if the flow is three-dimensional and the air is unsaturated. Moist potential vorticity can be generated through the combined effects of gradients in the potential temperature and moisture fields. The diagnosis of MPV generation in an extratropical cyclone was performed with the ECMWF objectively analyzed fields for a system that developed during February 1992. It was found that at various stages during the development of the cyclone, negative MPV was generated: at the north end of the cold front; along the occluded front and the cold front; and in the region of the warm core. This pattern of negative MPV generation is in excellent agreement with the predictions of previous theoretical and numerical studies. After the cyclone ceased to deepen, the region of negative MPV generated in the cyclone was horizontally advected into a saturated area. The area of negative MPV generated both along the occluded front in this case study and in the region of the bent-back warm front in a numerical simulation showed a mesoscale structure with a width of about 200-500 km. It was found that the intrusion of moist or dry air into baroclinic zones was important for MPV generation. In addition, baroclinicity increase (adjacent to the area of condensation) in the regions of high moisture gradients led to significant MPV production.

IMPACTS OF TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES EXPERIENCING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING NORTHWARD PROGRESSION ON THE RAINFALL OF LIAODONG PENINSULA

Both of Typhoon Winnie (9711) and Matsa (0509) underwent an extratropical transition (ET) process when they moved northward after landfall and affected Liaodong Peninsula. However, Matsa produced half as much rainfall as Winnie, although it struck Liaodong Peninsula directly while Winnie passed through the Bohai Sea. The relations between the ET processes and the precipitation over Liaodong Peninsula are examined. The result shows that the precipitation difference between Winnie and Matsa was closely related to the interactions between the westerly systems and typhoons during their ET processes. Winnie was captured by the upper westerly trough and then coupled with it when moving to the mid-latitudes, and the positive anomaly of moist potential vorticity (MPV) was transported downward from the upper troposphere over the remnant circulation of the tropical cyclone (TC). It was favorable to the interaction between tropical warm and wet air and westerly cold air, causing convective cloud clusters to form and develop. The rain belt composed of several meso-β cloud clusters over the Liaodong Peninsula, resulting in heavy rainfall. On the other hand, Matsa did not couple with any upper trough during its ET process and the positive anomaly of MPV in the upper troposphere and its downward transfer were weak. Only one meso-β cloud cluster occurred in Matsa’s rain belt during its ET process that tended to lessen rainfall over Liaodong Peninsula.

DIAGNOSIS OF THE DEVELOPMENTAL MECHANISM OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE USING POTENTIAL VORTICITY INVERSION OF FRONTOGENESIS

This paper diagnoses and analyses the developmental mechanism of a process of extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone which occurred over West Pacific Ocean based on a diagnosis method of potential vorticity inversion of frontogenesis.The study diagnoses quantitatively the role and effect of dynamic influence of westerly cold troughs,middle-latitude baroclinic frontal zones,cyclone cycles and unbalanced wind fields during the different stages of the extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone,and also discusses the interaction between them and the developmental mechanism.The results show that there are different developmental mechanisms during each stage of the extratropical transition and the processes are also unbalanced.

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE EVOLUTION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION

Fifty-eight extratropical transition(ET) cases in the years 2000-2008, including 2,021 observations(at 6-hour intervals), over the western North Pacific are analyzed using the cyclone phase space(CPS) method, in an effort to get the characteristics of the structure evolution and environmental conditions of tropical cyclones(TCs) during ET over this area. Cluster analysis of the CPS dataset shows that strong TCs are more likely to undergo ET. ET begins with the increment of thermal asymmetry in TCs, along with the generation and intensification of an upper-level cold core, and ends with the occurrence of a lower-level cold core. ET lasts an average duration of about 28 hours. Dynamic composite analysis of the environmental field of different clusters shows that, in general, when TCs move northward,they are gradually embedded in the westerlies and gradually transform into extratropical cyclones under the influence of the mid-and higher-latitude baroclinic systems. As for those TCs which complete ET, there is always much greater potential vorticity gradient in the northwest of them and obvious water vapor transport channels in the environment.

Structure of the Potential Vorticity of an Explosive Cyclone over the Eastern Asian Region in Late November 2013

An explosive extratropical cyclone(EC)over the Eastern Asian region that caused two shipwrecks is analyzed using ERA-Interim reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.Analyses of the evolution of the EC reveal that the positive potential vorticity(PV)at the upper-tropospheric level displays a hook-shaped structure during the mature period of the cyclone.The PV distribution forms a vertically coherent PV structure called a PV tower.The vertical distribution of the PV can induce and strengthen cyclonic circulation from the lower-to upper-levels of troposphere,which is an important deepening mechanism of explosive cyclone.The PV tower occurs approximately ten hours prior to the development of surface occlusion in the cyclone.The evolution of surface fronts closely follows the development of the horizontal upper-tropospheric PV.This tandem development is largely attributed to the ability of the positive upper-tropospheric PV and the PV tower to induce cyclonic circulation simultaneously.The kinematic wrap-up process of cyclonic circulation also accelerates the formation of warm occlusion.A conceptual model of the distributions of positive PV and potential temperature combining the perspectives of dynamic tropopause folding,PV tower,and atmospheric stability,including westward tilting and baroclinicity,is proposed.This model can illustrate the explosive deepening mechanism of ECs.The regions of convective instability and rainfall determined by this model are consistent with those identified from the actual observation.

Cyclone Bomb Hits Southern Brazil in 2020

An“explosive extratropical cyclone”is an atmospheric phenomenon that occurs when there is a very rapid drop in central atmospheric pressure.This phenomenon,with its characteristic of rapidly lowering the pressure in its interior,generates very intense winds and for this reason it is called explosive cyclone,bomb cyclone.With gusts recorded of 116 km/h,atmospheric phenomenon-“cyclone bomb”(CB)hit southern Brazil on June 30,the beginning of winter 2020,causing destruction in its influence over.One of the cities most affected was Chapecó,west of the state of Santa Catarina.The satellite images show that the CB generated a low pressure(976 mbar)inside it,generating two atmospheric currents that moved at high speed.In a northwest-southeast direction,Bolivia and Paraguay,crossing the states of Parana and Santa Catarina,and this draft that hit the south of Brazil,which caused the destruction of the affected states.Another moving to Argentina,southwest-northeast direction,due to high area of high pressure(1022 mbar).Both enhanced the phenomenon.

Response of extreme precipitation to increasing extratropical cyclonic vortex frequency

Since the 2000 s,extratropical extremes have been more frequent,which are closely related to anomalies of planetary-scale and synoptic-scale systems.This study focuses on a key synoptic system,the extratropical cyclonic vortex(ECV)over land,to investigate its relations with extreme precipitation.It was found that ECVs have been more active post-2000,which has induced more extreme precipitation,and such variation is projected to persist along with increasing temperature within 1.5℃of global warming.An enhanced quasi-stationary vortex(QSV)primarily contributes to the ECV,rather than inactive synoptic-scale transient eddies(STEs).Inactive STEs respond to a decline in baroclinicity due to the tendency of the homogeneous temperature gradient.However,such conditions are helpful to widening the westerly jet belt,favoring strong dynamic processes of quasi-resonant amplification and interaction of STEs with the quasi-stationary wave,and the result favors an increasing frequency and persistence of QSVs,contributing to extreme precipitation.

LOCAL ENERGETICS ON EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF EXTRATROPICAL MARINE CYCLONE

Local energetics on explosive development of extratropical marine cyclone was proposed and a diagnosis of the representative cases was performed from local balance,net volume integration budget and vertical distribution using the derived eddy kinetic energy equation and eddy available potential energy equation.The results revealed that three primary scenarios are responsible for the rapid growth of eddy kinetic energy and explosive cyclogenesis,and that a primary explosive development mechanism is the enhanced baroclinic instability by eddy heat transport and eddy diabatic heating,and that the explosive eyclogenesis is essentially a product of the peculiar climatological background bearing strong thermal difference in cold season and its conversion potential.

A Case Study of the November 2012 Mixed Rain-Snow Storm over North China

A mixed rain-snow storm associated with a strong burst of cold air and development of an extratropical cyclone occurred over North China from 3 to 5 November 2012.This early snowfall event was characterized by a dramatic drop in temperature,strong winds,high precipitation intensity,broad spatial extent,and coexistence of multi-phase precipitating hydrometeors.This study investigates the multi-scale interactions between the large-scale circulation background and the synoptic-scale weather systems associated with the storm.The results are as follows.（1） The Arctic Oscillation （AO） had been in its negative phase long before the event,leading to southward advection of cold air into North China in advance of the storm.（2）The large-scale atmospheric circulation experienced a decreased number of long waves upstream of North China prior to the storm,resulting in reduced wave velocity and an almost stagnant low pressure system （extratropical cyclone） over North China.（3） An Ω-shaped blocking high over East Asia and the western Pacific obstructed the eastward movement of an upstream trough,allowing the corresponding surface cyclone to stabilize and persist over Beijing and its neighboring areas.This blocking high was a major factor in making this event a historically most severe precipitation event in autumn in Beijing for the past 60 years.（4） Baroclinic instability at lower levels gave rise to rapid development of the cyclone under the classical ＂second type＂ development mechanism for extratropical cyclones.（5） Moisture originated from the Yellow Sea entered the slowly-moving cyclone in a steady stream,creating fairly favorable water vapor supply for the heavy rainfall-snowfall,especially during the later stage of the cyclone development.（6） Moisture transport and frontal lifting triggered low-level instability and updrafts.Intensification of the front enhanced the vertical wind shear,causing conditional symmetric instability （CSI） to expand upward within the unstable lower troposphere,and to eventually gear into the CSI region of the upper troposphere,which facilitated the upward development of low-level updrafts.