结合机器学习的SA湍流模型闭合系数修正

将修正Morris分类筛选法与极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting,XGBoost)相结合,在计算流体动力学(computational fluid dynamics,CFD)数据驱动下,用于SA(Spalart-Allmaras)湍流模型闭合系数的修正.利用分类筛选法有效缩小闭合系数研究范围,同时依据XGBoost方法在小规模数据集下取得精度较高的拟合模型,有效提升系数修正效率.在三维DLR-F6-WB构型下进行了数值实验,实验结果显示利用本方法能够在三维复杂模型上基于小样本数据进行系数修正,修正后的升阻力系数计算精度得到了显著提升.

Competitive oxidation behavior of Ni-based superalloy GH4738 at extreme temperature

A high thrust-to-weight ratio poses challenges to the high-temperature performance of Ni-based superalloys. The oxidation behavior of GH4738 at extreme temperatures has been investigated by isothermal and non-isothermal experiments. As a result of the competitive diffusion of alloying elements, the oxide scale included an outermost porous oxide layer (OOL), an inner relatively dense oxide layer (IOL), and an internal oxide zone (IOZ), depending on the temperature and time. A high temperature led to the formation of large voids at the IOL/IOZ interface. At 1200℃, the continuity of the Cr-rich oxide layer in the IOL was destroyed, and thus, spallation occurred. Extension of oxidation time contributed to the size of Al-rich oxide particles with the increase in the IOZ. Based on this finding,the oxidation kinetics of GH4738 was discussed, and the corresponding oxidation behavior at 900-1100℃ was predicted.

考虑环境因素的电动汽车充电站实时负荷预测模型

为了减少电动汽车大规模集成到电网造成的不利影响,提出了一种能够实现充电站充电负荷精准预测的方法。该方法利用LightGBM(light gradient boosting machine)与XGBoost(eXtreme gradient boosting)模型构建线下-线上组合模型。考虑充电负荷、时间、温度、天气等历史数据,利用LightGBM模型初步建立充电负荷线下预测模型;基于XGBoost模型,以线下预测模型输出负荷和实际负荷的误差为优化目标,实时变化的交通流量为协变量,建立线上预测模型,并对初步预测结果进行误差修正。某市实际充电站预测结果表明,相比于随机森林(RF)、LightGBM模型、XGBoost模型、多层感知机(MLP)以及LightGBM-RF组合模型,该组合模型具有更高的预测精度,同时可以准确预测不同充电站的实时充电负荷。

2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 years.As in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the world.Here,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.We also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme events.Hot extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood conditions.Climate extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

Multiple mixed state variable incremental integration for reconstructing extreme multistability in a novel memristive hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearity

Memristor-based chaotic systems with infinite equilibria are interesting because they generate extreme multistability.Their initial state-dependent dynamics can be explained in a reduced-dimension model by converting the incremental integration of the state variables into system parameters.However,this approach cannot solve memristive systems in the presence of nonlinear terms other than the memristor term.In addition,the converted state variables may suffer from a degree of divergence.To allow simpler mechanistic analysis and physical implementation of extreme multistability phenomena,this paper uses a multiple mixed state variable incremental integration(MMSVII)method,which successfully reconstructs a four-dimensional hyperchaotic jerk system with multiple cubic nonlinearities except for the memristor term in a three-dimensional model using a clever linear state variable mapping that eliminates the divergence of the state variables.Finally,the simulation circuit of the reduced-dimension system is constructed using Multisim simulation software and the simulation results are consistent with the MATLAB numerical simulation results.The results show that the method of MMSVII proposed in this paper is useful for analyzing extreme multistable systems with multiple higher-order nonlinear terms.

Impacts of Future Changes in Heavy Precipitation and Extreme Drought on the Economy over South China and Indochina

Heavy precipitation and extreme drought have caused severe economic losses over South China and Indochina(INCSC)in recent decades.Given the areas with large gross domestic product(GDP)in the INCSC region are distributed along the coastline and greatly affected by global warming,understanding the possible economic impacts induced by future changes in the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(RX5day)and the maximum consecutive dry days(CDD)is critical for adaptation planning in this region.Based on the latest data released by phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),future projections of precipitation extremes with bias correction and their impacts on GDP over the INCSC region under the fossil-fueled development Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP5-8.5)are investigated.Results indicate that RX5day will intensify robustly throughout the INCSC region,while CDD will lengthen in most regions under global warming.The changes in climate consistently dominate the effect on GDP over the INCSC region,rather than the change of GDP.If only considering the effect of climate change on GDP,the changes in precipitation extremes bring a larger impact on the economy in the future to the provinces of Hunan,Jiangxi,Fujian,Guangdong,and Hainan in South China,as well as the Malay Peninsula and southern Cambodia in Indochina.Thus,timely regional adaptation strategies are urgent for these regions.Moreover,from the sub-regional average viewpoint,over two thirds of CMIP6 models agree that maintaining a lower global warming level will reduce the economic impacts from heavy precipitation over the INCSC region.

Extreme drought with seasonal timing consistently promotes CH_(4) uptake through inconsistent pathways in a temperate grassland, China

Methane(CH_(4))is a potent greenhouse gas that has a substantial impact on global warming due to its substantial influence on the greenhouse effect.Increasing extreme precipitation events,such as drought,attributable to global warming that caused by greenhouse gases,exert a profound impact on the intricate biological processes associated with CH_(4) uptake.Notably,the timing of extreme drought occurrence emerges as a pivotal factor influencing CH_(4) uptake,even when the degree of drought remains constant.However,it is still unclear how the growing season regulates the response of CH_(4) uptake to extreme drought.In an effort to bridge this knowledge gap,we conducted a field manipulative experiment to evaluate the impact of extreme drought on CH_(4) uptake during early,middle,and late growing stages in a temperate steppe of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China.The result showed that all extreme drought consistently exerted positive effects on CH_(4) uptake regardless of seasonal timing.However,the magnitude of this effect varied depending on the timing of season,as evidenced by a stronger effect in early growing stage than in middle and late growing stages.Besides,the pathways of CH_(4) uptake were different from seasonal timing.Extreme drought affected soil physical-chemical properties and aboveground biomass(AGB),consequently leading to changes in CH_(4) uptake.The structural equation model showed that drought both in the early and middle growing stages enhanced CH_(4) uptake due to reduced soil water content(SWC),leading to a decrease in NO_(3)–-N and an increase in pmoA abundance.However,drought in late growing stage primarily enhanced CH_(4) uptake only by decreasing SWC.Our results suggested that seasonal timing significantly contributed to regulate the impacts of extreme drought pathways and magnitudes on CH_(4) uptake.The findings can provide substantial implications for understanding how extreme droughts affect CH_(4) uptake and improve the prediction of potential ecological consequence under future climate change.

Evaluation and Projection of Population Exposure to Temperature Extremes over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Region Using a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model RegCM4 Ensemble

Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.

Health Effects of Extreme Low Temperatures and Cold Waves on Respiratory Diseases

Climate change is the most significant threat to public health and exerts myriad influences on health,including the occurrence of extreme temperature events.Studies have demonstrated that populations will experience significantly severe cold waves in the future^([1]),increasing the risk of respiratory diseases.

Differences and similarities in radial growth of Betula species to climate change

Betula platyphylla and Betula costata are important species in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests.However,the specific ways in which their growth is affected by warm temperatures and drought remain unclear.To address this issue,60 and 62 tree-ring cores of B.platyphylla and B.costata were collected in Yichun,China.Using dendrochronological methods,the response and adaptation of these species to climate change were examined.A“hysteresis effect”was found in the rings of both species,linked to May–September moisture conditions of the previous year.Radial growth of B.costata was positively correlated with the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the precipitation from September to October of the previous year,and the relative humidity in October of the previous year.Growth of B.costata is primarily restricted by moisture conditions from September to October.In contrast,B.platyphylla growth is mainly limited by minimum temperatures in May–June of both the previous and current years.After droughts,B.platyphylla had a faster recovery rate compared to B.costata.In the context of rising temperatures since 1980,the correlation between B.platyphylla growth and monthly SPEI became positive and strengthened over time,while the growth of B.costata showed no conspicuous change.Our findings suggest that the growth of B.platyphylla is already affected by warming temperatures,whereas B.costata may become limited if warming continues or intensifies.Climate change could disrupt the succession of these species,possibly accelerating the succession of pioneer species.The results of this research are of great significance for understanding how the growth changes of birch species under warming and drying conditions,and contribute to understanding the structural adaptation of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis)forests under climate change.

The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

Floristic composition and edaphic relationships in ferruginous campo rupestre reference ecosystems

Land use change and occupation have led to modifications in the environment causing loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services throughout the planet.Some environments with high economic relevance,such as the ferruginous campo rupestre(rupestrian grassland known as Canga in Brazil),are even more susceptible to severe impacts due to their extreme habitat conditions and low resilience.The determination of reference ecosystems based on the intrinsic characteristics of the ecosystem is essential for conservation as well as to the implementation of ecological restoration.We proposed the reference ecosystem of the three main types of habitats of the ferruginous campo rupestre based on their floristic composition.We described the floristic composition of each habitat and evaluated the physicochemical properties of the soils and the relationship between plants and soils.All three habitats showed high diversity of plant species and many endemic species,such as Chamaecrista choriophylla,Cuphea pseudovaccinium,Lychnophora pinaster,and Vellozia subalata.The distribution of vegetation was strongly related with the edaphic characteristics,with a set of species more adapted to high concentration of base saturation,fine sand,organic carbon,and iron,while another set of species succeeded in more acidic soils with higher S and silt concentration.We provide support for the contention that the ferruginous campo rupestre is a mosaic of different habitats shaped by intrinsic local conditions.Failure to recognize the floristic composition of each particular habitat can lead to inappropriate restoration,increased habitat homogenization and increased loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services.This study also advances the knowledge base for building the reference ecosystem for the different types of ferruginous campo rupestre habitats,as well as a key database for highlighting those species contribute most to community assembly in this diverse and threatened tropical mountain ecosystem.

Distributional and behavioral responses of the wintering Oriental Storks to drought in China’s largest freshwater lake

Extreme droughts are increasing in frequency and severity globally as a result of climate change.Developing understanding of species’responses to drought is crucial for their conservation,especially in regions experi-encing increased aridity.Although numerous studies have investigated birds’responses to drought,the emphasis has primarily been on landbirds.Drought can significantly alter the wetland environments that waterbirds inhabit,but the response of waterbirds to drought remains understudied.In this study,we surveyed the distri-bution and behavior of Oriental Storks(Ciconia boyciana)in Poyang Lake,which is the largest freshwater lake in China.Results indicate that drought-induced catchment areas at the lowest water level limited the total popu-lation size of Oriental Storks in the sub-lakes.Sub-lakes with large catchment areas at the lowest water level demonstrated a capacity to support a larger population of wintering Oriental Storks.Over time,Oriental Storks exhibited a gradual concentration in Changhu Lake,characterized by larger catchments,after resource depletion in sub-lakes with smaller catchments.Additionally,the duration of Oriental Storks’vigilance and moving be-haviors decreased significantly compared with that observed before the drought.After the drought,Oriental Storks increased their foraging efforts,as evidenced by increased presence in deeper water and reaching their heads and necks into deeper water to forage,higher search rates,but lower foraging rates.In accordance with area-restricted search theory,reductions in habitat quality resulting from drought,including extensive fish die-offs,forced Oriental Storks to increase their foraging efforts.Sustaining a specific water area in sub-lakes during droughts can preserve resource availability,which is crucial for the conservation of Oriental Storks.Imple-menting measures such as water level control and micro-modification of lake bottoms in sub-lakes might mitigate the impact of drought on the piscivorous Oriental Storks.

Extreme value theory applied to the auroral electrojet indices

The study of extreme weather and space events has gained paramount importance in modern society owing to rapid advances in high technology.Understanding and describing exceptional occurrences plays a crucial role in making decisive assessments of their potential impact on technical,economic,and social aspects in various fields.This research focuses on analyzing the hourly values of the auroral electrojet(AE)geomagnetic index from 1957 to 2019 by using the peak over threshold method in extreme value theory.By fitting the generalized Pareto distribution to extreme AE values,shape parameter indices were derived,revealing negative values that establish an upper bound for this time series.Consequently,it became evident that the AE values had reached a plateau,suggesting that extreme events exceeding the established upper limit are rare.As a result,although the need for diligent precautions to mitigate the consequences of such extreme events persists,surpassing the upper limit of AE values becomes increasingly challenging.It is also possible to observe an aurora in the middle-and low-latitude regions during the maximum period of the AE index.

αDecay in extreme laser fields within a deformed Gamow-like model

In this study, the effect of extreme laser fields on the α decay process of ground-state even–even nuclei was investigated.Using the deformed Gamow-like model, we found that state-of-the-art lasers can cause a slight change in the α decay penetration probability of most nuclei. In addition, we studied the correlation between the rate of change of the α decay penetration probability and angle between the directions of the laser electric field and α particle emission for different nuclei. Based on this correlation, the average effect of extreme laser fields on the half-life of many nuclei with arbitrary α particle emission angles was calculated. The calculations show that the laser suppression and promotion effects on the α decay penetration probability of the nuclei population with completely random α particle-emission directions are not completely canceled.The remainder led to a change in the average penetration probability of the nuclei. Furthermore, the possibility of achieving a higher average rate of change by altering the spatial shape of the laser is explored. We conclude that circularly polarized lasers may be helpful in future experiments to achieve a more significant average rate of change of the α decay half-life of the nuclei population.

Highly Differentiated Target Detection under Extremely Low-Light Conditions Based on Improved YOLOX Model

This paper expounds upon a novel target detection methodology distinguished by its elevated discriminatory efficacy,specifically tailored for environments characterized by markedly low luminance levels.Conventional methodologies struggle with the challenges posed by luminosity fluctuations,especially in settings characterized by diminished radiance,further exacerbated by the utilization of suboptimal imaging instrumentation.The envisioned approach mandates a departure from the conventional YOLOX model,which exhibits inadequacies in mitigating these challenges.To enhance the efficacy of this approach in low-light conditions,the dehazing algorithm undergoes refinement,effecting a discerning regulation of the transmission rate at the pixel level,reducing it to values below 0.5,thereby resulting in an augmentation of image contrast.Subsequently,the coiflet wavelet transform is employed to discern and isolate high-discriminatory attributes by dismantling low-frequency image attributes and extracting high-frequency attributes across divergent axes.The utilization of CycleGAN serves to elevate the features of low-light imagery across an array of stylistic variances.Advanced computational methodologies are then employed to amalgamate and conflate intricate attributes originating from images characterized by distinct stylistic orientations,thereby augmenting the model’s erudition potential.Empirical validation conducted on the PASCAL VOC and MS COCO 2017 datasets substantiates pronounced advancements.The refined low-light enhancement algorithm yields a discernible 5.9%augmentation in the target detection evaluation index when compared to the original imagery.Mean Average Precision(mAP)undergoes enhancements of 9.45%and 0.052%in low-light visual renditions relative to conventional YOLOX outcomes.The envisaged approach presents a myriad of advantages over prevailing benchmark methodologies in the realm of target detection within environments marked by an acute scarcity of luminosity.

Gastrointestinal manifestations of critical ill heatstroke patients and their associations with outcomes:A multicentre,retrospective,observational study

BACKGROUND Extreme heat exposure is a growing health problem,and the effects of heat on the gastrointestinal(GI)tract is unknown.This study aimed to assess the incidence of GI symptoms associated with heatstroke and its impact on outcomes.AIM To assess the incidence of GI symptoms associated with heatstroke and its impact on outcomes.METHODS Patients admitted to the intensive care unit(ICU)due to heatstroke were included from 83 centres.Patient history,laboratory results,and clinically relevant outcomes were recorded at ICU admission and daily until up to day 15,ICU discharge,or death.GI symptoms,including nausea/vomiting,diarrhoea,flatulence,and bloody stools,were recorded.The characteristics of patients with heatstroke concomitant with GI symptoms were described.Multivariable regression analyses were performed to determine significant predictors of GI symptoms.RESULTS A total of 713 patients were included in the final analysis,of whom 132(18.5%)patients had at least one GI symptom during their ICU stay,while 26(3.6%)suffered from more than one symptom.Patients with GI symptoms had a significantly higher ICU stay compared with those without.The mortality of patients who had two or more GI symptoms simultaneously was significantly higher than that in those with one GI symptom.Multivariable logistic regression analysis revealed that older patients with a lower GCS score on admission were more likely to experience GI symptoms.CONCLUSION The GI manifestations of heatstroke are common and appear to impact clinically relevant hospitalization outcomes.

Long-Term Extreme Wave Characteristics in the Water Adjacent to China Based on ERA5 Reanalysis Data

Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.

Design and optimization of fluid lubricated bearings operated with extreme working performances——a comprehensive review

Fluid lubricated bearings have been widely adopted as support components for high-end equipment in metrology,semiconductor devices,aviation,strategic defense,ultraprecision manufacturing,medical treatment,and power generation.In all these applications,the equipment must deliver extreme working performances such as ultraprecise movement,ultrahigh rotation speed,ultraheavy bearing loads,ultrahigh environmental temperatures,strong radiation resistance,and high vacuum operation,which have challenged the design and optimization of reliable fluid lubricated bearings.Breakthrough of any related bottlenecks will promote the development course of high-end equipment.To promote the advancement of high-end equipment,this paper reviews the design and optimization of fluid lubricated bearings operated at typical extreme working performances,targeting the realization of extreme working performances,current challenges and solutions,underlying deficiencies,and promising developmental directions.This paper can guide the selection of suitable fluid lubricated bearings and optimize their structures to meet their required working performances.

Cascaded ELM-Based Joint Frame Synchronization and Channel Estimation over Rician Fading Channel with Hardware Imperfections

Due to the interdependency of frame synchronization(FS)and channel estimation(CE),joint FS and CE(JFSCE)schemes are proposed to enhance their functionalities and therefore boost the overall performance of wireless communication systems.Although traditional JFSCE schemes alleviate the influence between FS and CE,they show deficiencies in dealing with hardware imperfection(HI)and deterministic line-of-sight(LOS)path.To tackle this challenge,we proposed a cascaded ELM-based JFSCE to alleviate the influence of HI in the scenario of the Rician fading channel.Specifically,the conventional JFSCE method is first employed to extract the initial features,and thus forms the non-Neural Network(NN)solutions for FS and CE,respectively.Then,the ELMbased networks,named FS-NET and CE-NET,are cascaded to capture the NN solutions of FS and CE.Simulation and analysis results show that,compared with the conventional JFSCE methods,the proposed cascaded ELM-based JFSCE significantly reduces the error probability of FS and the normalized mean square error(NMSE)of CE,even against the impacts of parameter variations.