Assessment of the Application of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM Satellite Precipitation Products for Extreme Dry and Wet Events Monitoring in Togo (2001-2019)

Togo’s economy is heavily dependent on rainfed agriculture. Therefore, anomalies in precipitation can have a significant impact on crop yields, affecting food production and security. Thus, monitoring anomalous climate conditions in Togo through the combination of precipitation satellite-based data and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) help anticipate the development of drought scenarios or excessive rainfall, allowing farmers to adjust their strategies and minimize losses. Continuous and adequate spatial monitoring of these climate anomalies provided by satellite-based products can be central to an effective early warning system (EWS) implementation in Togo. Precipitation satellite-based products have been presented invaluable tools for assessing droughts and , offering timely and comprehensive data that supports a wide range of applications. In this study, we applied the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rainfall product, a unified satellite global precipitation product developed by NASA, to identify and characterize the severity of dry and wet climate events in Togo during the period from 2001 to 2019. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), as the main index recommended by the World Meteorological Organization to monitor drought wide world, was selected as the reference index to monitor dry and wet climate events across Togo regions. The results show two distinct major climate periods in Togo in the timeframe analyzed (2001-2019), one dominated by wet events from 2008 to 2010, and a second marked by severe and extreme dry events from 2013 to 2015;MERG rainfall and SPI combination were able to capture these events consistently.

Grassland-type ecosystem stability in China differs under the influence of drought and wet events

Ecological stability is a core issue in ecological research and holds significant implications forhumanity. The increased frequency and intensity of drought and wet climate events resulting from climatechange pose a major threat to global ecological stability. Variations in stability among different ecosystemshave been confirmed, but it remains unclear whether there are differences in stability within the sameterrestrial vegetation ecosystem under the influence of climate events in different directions and intensities.China's grassland ecosystem includes most grassland types and is a good choice for studying this issue.This study used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index-12 (SPEI-12) to identify thedirections and intensities of different types of climate events, and based on Normalized DifferenceVegetation Index (NDVI), calculated the resistance and resilience of different grassland types for 30consecutive years from 1990 to 2019 (resistance and resilience are important indicators to measurestability). Based on a traditional regression model, standardized methods were integrated to analyze theimpacts of the intensity and duration of drought and wet events on vegetation stability. The resultsshowed that meadow steppe exhibited the highest stability, while alpine steppe and desert steppe had thelowest overall stability. The stability of typical steppe, alpine meadow, temperate meadow was at anintermediate level. Regarding the impact of the duration and intensity of climate events on vegetationecosystem stability for the same grassland type, the resilience of desert steppe during drought was mainlyaffected by the duration. In contrast, the impact of intensity was not significant. However, alpine steppewas mainly affected by intensity in wet environments, and duration had no significant impact. Ourconclusions can provide decision support for the future grassland ecosystem governance.

Role of land-atmosphere coupling in persistent extreme climate events in eastern China in summer 2022

2022年暖季,中国东部地区遭受持续性高温,少雨和土壤干旱的复合极端事件.特征分析指出,在研究时段内,中国东部地区的气温,降水和土壤湿度呈现明显的季节内变化和南北差异。由1940-2022年的气候态可知,长江流域和东南地区的土壤含水充足,蒸散主要受限于陆面有效能量.然而,潜在机制研究指出,2022年土壤湿度对蒸散的限制作用在上述区域异常偏强,土壤湿度与气候要素之间的强反馈可能在2022年复合极端事件的演变和持续中发挥了关键作用。

Understanding and Attribution of Extreme Heat and Drought Events in 2022: Current Situation and Future Challenges

Extreme weather events and their consequential impacts have been a key feature of the climate in recent years in many parts of the world,with many partly attributed to ongoing global-scale warming.The past year,2022,has been no exception,with further records being broken.The year was marked by unprecedented heatwaves and droughts with highly unusual spatial extent,duration and intensity,with one measure indicating an aggregated and overall intensity of extreme heat events worldwide not seen since at least 1950.The extreme drought measured by surface soil moisture covered 47.3%of global land areas in 2022,which was the second most widespread year since 1980.Here,we examine notable events of the year in five major regions of the world:China’s Yangtze River region,western Europe,the western U.S.,the Horn of Africa and central South America.For each event,we review the potential roles of circulation,oceanic forcing(especially the“triple-dip”La Niña)and anthropogenic climate change,with an aim of understanding the extreme events in 2022 from a global perspective.This will serve as a reference for mechanism understanding,prediction and attribution of extreme events.

Extreme Weather and Climate Events and Their Impacts on Island Countries in the Western Pacific: Cyclones, Floods and Droughts

Increases in the frequency of extreme weather and climate events and the severity of their impacts on the natural environment and society have been observed across the globe in recent decades. In addition to natural climate variability and greenhouse-induced climate change, extreme weather and climate events produce the most pronounced impacts. In this paper, the climate of three island countries in the Western Pacific: Fiji, Samoa and Tuvalu, has been analysed. Warming trends in annual average maximum and minimum temperatures since the 1950s have been identified, in line with the global warming trend. We present recent examples of extreme weather and climate events and their impacts on the island countries in the Western Pacific: the 2011 drought in Tuvalu, the 2012 floods in Fiji and a tropical cyclone, Evan, which devastated Samoa and Fiji in December 2012. We also relate occurrences of the extreme weather and climate events to phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The impacts of such natural disasters on the countries are severe and the costs of damage are astronomical. In some cases, climate extremes affect countries to such an extent that governments declare a national state of emergency, as occurred in Tuvalu in 2011 due to the severe drought’s impact on water resources. The projected increase in the frequency of weather and climate extremes is one of the expected consequences of the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentration and will likely have even stronger negative impacts on the natural environment and society in the future. This should be taken into consideration by authorities of Pacific Island Countries and aid donors when developing strategies to adapt to the increasing risk of climate extremes. Here we demonstrate that the modern science of seasonal climate prediction is well developed, with current dynamical climate models being able to provide skilful predictions of regional rainfall two-three months in advance. The dynamic climate model-based forecast products are now disseminated to the National Meteorological Services of 15 island countries in the Western Pacific through a range of web-based information tools. We conclude with confidence that seasonal climate prediction is an effective solution at the regional level to provide governments and local communities of island nations in the Western Pacific with valuable assistance for informed decision making for adaptation to climate variability and change.

Simulation of Extreme Climate Events over China with Different Regional Climate Models

During phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project （RMIP） for Asia, the Asian climate was estimated from July 1988 to December 1998 using six climate models. In this paper, the abilities of six climate models to simulate several important ex- treme climate events in China during the last years of the last century were analyzed. The modeled results for the intensity of the precipitation anomaly over the Yang- tze-Huaihe Valley during the summers of 1991 and 1998 were weaker than the observed values. The positive pre- cipitation anomaly responsible for a catastrophic flood in 1991 was well reproduced in almost all simulation results, but the intensity and range of the precipitation anomaly in 1998 were weaker in the modeled results. The spatial dis- tribution of extreme climate events in 1997, when severe drought affected North China and flood impacted South China, was reproduced by most of the regional models because the anomaly of the large-scale background field was well-simulated, despite poor simulation of high temperature areas in the north during the summer by all models.

Responses of some landscape trees to the drought and high temperature events during 2006 and 2007 in Yamaguchi,Japan

Extreme weather events were analyzed based on the meteorological data from the year of 1967 to 2007 for Yamaguchi, Japan. The responses from landscape trees were also investigated mainly by the analysis of image pixel and spectral reflectance. Results show that after the dry, hot and windy summer in 2007, many landscape trees in Yamaguchi City tended to respond the extreme weather events by reducing their leaf surface area and receiving less radiation energy. Premature leaf discoloration or defoliation appeared on some landscape tree species and leaf necrosis occurred on tip and margin of many Kousa dogwood (Cornus kousa) trees at unfavorable sites. Described by image pixel analysis method, the leaf necrotic area percentage (LNAP) of sampled dogwood trees averaged 41.6% and the sampled Sasanqua camellia (Camelia sasanqua) tree also showed fewer flowers in flower season of 2007 than that in 2006. By differential analysis of partial discolored crown, it presented a logistic differential equation of crown color for sweet gum (Liquidambar styraciflua) trees. It suggested that the persistent higher temperature and lower precipitation could be injurious to the sensitive landscape trees at poor sites, even in relative humid area like Yamaguchi.

Ranking Regional Drought Events in China for 1960-2009

The spatiotemporal variations of the site and regional droughts in China during 1960–2009 were analyzed by applying a daily composite-drought index （CDI） to 722 stations in China's Mainland. Droughts frequently happened in a zone extended from Southwest China to the Yellow River, North China, and the southwestern part of Northeast China, with two centers of high frequency in North China and Southwest China. In Southwest and South China, droughts tend to happen during the winter. In North China and along the Yellow River, droughts mainly occur during the winter and during May–June. During the past 50 years, the geographical distribution of site drought events showed high frequencies （0.9–1.3 times per year） in the upper Yellow River basin and North China, comparing with moderate frequencies （0.6–0.9 times per year） in Southwest China and the southwestern part of Northeast China and with lower frequencies over the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. And the frequencies increased over China's Mainland except for the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. A regional drought （RD） event is a widespread and persistent event that covers at least five adjacent sites and lasts for at least 10 days. There were 252 RD events in the past 50 years—five times per year. Most RD events lasted for 100 days and covered 100 stations, but the longest and largest RD event lasted for 307 days from 6 September 1998 to 9 July 1999 and covered 327 stations from North to Southwest China.

Responses of some landscape trees to the drought and high temperature events during 2006 and 2007 in Yamaguchi, Japan

Extreme weather events were analyzed based on the meteorological data from the year of 1967 to 2007 for Yamaguchi, Japan. The responses from landscape trees were also investigated mainly by the analysis of image pixel and spectral reflectance, Results show that after the dry, hot and windy summer in 2007, many landscape trees in Yamaguchi City tended to respond the extreme weather events by re- ducing their leaf surface area and receiving less radiation energy. Premature leaf discoloration or defoliation appeared on some landscape tree species and leaf necrosis occurred on tip and margin of many Kousa dogwood （Comus kousa） trees at unfavorable sites. Described by image pixel analysis method, the leaf necrotic area percentage （LNAP） of sampled dogwood trees averaged 41.6% and the sampled Sasanqua camellia （Camelia sasanqua） tree also showed fewer flowers in flower season of 2007 than that in 2006. By differential analysis of partial discolored crown, it presented a logistic differential equation of crown color for sweet gum （Liquidambar styraciflua） trees. It suggested that the persistent higher temperature and lower precipitation could be injurious to the sensitive landscape trees at poor sites, even in relative humid area like Yamaguchi.

A Comparative Analysis of Primary and Extreme Characteristics of Dry or Wet Status between Asia and North America

In this study, the Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） was used to analyze the average and extreme dry/wet states of Asia and North America from 1953 to 2003. The results indicate that the two continents underwent drying trends during this period. Compared with North America, Asia showed more severe drought trends. However, more significant and regular seasonal variation for drought was found in North America. The driest regions in Asia were located in the northern region of China, Mongolia, and eastern mid-Siberian plateau. Most regions in central North America were relatively wetter than other regions. The northern and southwestern regions of North America, as well as the Atlantic and Pacific coastal areas, experienced the most drought during this period. A sharp increase of the drought area and the number of extreme drought events took place from 1997 to 2003 in both Asia and North America. Severe drought events were more likely to occur during the summer on both continents. Asia had the most extreme drought events during July, but North America reached its highest drought frequency from June to September. In Asia, a persistent increasing trend of extreme drought emerged throughout the studied period. However, a more complex evolution of drought emerged in North America： a decreasing trend appeared before the mid-1960s and an increasing trend appeared after the late 1970s. A relatively steady dry/wet status was observed between the mid-1960s and the late 1970s. The role of exceptional, extreme drought events with respect to the La Nin？a event was considered during 1997–2003.

Wet deposition and scavenging ratio of air pollutants during an extreme rainstorm in the North China Plain

Atmospheric wet deposition plays an important role in the supply of nutrients and toxic substances to terrestrial and aquatic environments. Although long-term（e.g. annual, multi-year） wet deposition is recorded well, pronounced and short-term changes in precipitation chemistry are less well investigated. In the present study, the precipitation chemistry and scavenging ratio of air pollutants were observed during an extreme torrential rain event（325.6 mm at the observation site） that occurred over 19–21 July 2016 in the North China Plain（NCP）. The scavenging ratio of particles showed a similar spatial distribution to that of the precipitation amount in the NCP, indicating the efficient removal of particulate matter due to the large amount and precipitation intensity of the storm. In addition, the scavenging ratio of water soluble ions was larger than that of organics and gaseous pollutants such as SO_2 and NO_2, likely due to their differences in water solubility.Consequently, raindrops incorporated more aerosol sulfate than gaseous compounds. Due to the heavy precipitation amount, almost all species in rainwater during this storm showed their lowest concentration but the highest flux compared with other rain events, indicating an important role played by this storm in terms of the substances received by the terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the region. However, the contribution of this storm to the annual chemical flux was lower than that of precipitation amount, indicating that the atmospheric compounds were scavenged below-cloud first and were then diluted by the cloud/rainwater. Future studies are needed in the context of the occurrence of extreme rainfall events in the NCP from the perspective of climate variability.

A Long Lasting and Extensive Drought Event over China in 1876-1878

Between 1876 and 1878 a large-scale drought occurred in China. This is a major meteorological disaster and an extreme climate event despite the cold climate at the end of the Little Ice Age. In this paper the dynamic evolution of the occurrence and development of the drought is reproduced on the basis of historical literature records. These were used to calculate the yearly numbers of drought-hit counties and to determine the spatial distribution in addition with concomitant famine, locust plague and pestilence epidemic for each of the three years. The persistent drought disaster spread over 13 provinces with its center in Shaanxi, Henan and Shanxi provinces, where the continuous non-soaking rain period exceeded 340 days. Conclusively, it is more severe than the worst drought （1928-1930） in the 20th century. This drought disaster of 1876-1878 took place in the descending phase of the 11th sunspot activity period and the start of the 12th period. It also happened during a spell of frequent E1 Nino events and corresponds with an extremely strong E1 Nino.

Can the desiccation of forests in Tara National Park (Serbia) be attributed to the effects of a drought period?

Forest ecosystems within national parks are threatened by various biotic and abiotic factors.To deter-mine the causes of the desiccation and death of trees in mixed coniferous and deciduous forests of Tara National Park(TNP),Serbia,we monitored defoliation and mortality of individual trees in permanent experimental plots.Data on the desiccation of a large number of trees were gathered by determining the total volume of dry trees and areas of forests under drying stress.The two sets of data were combined to determine the impact of climatic events,primarily drought periods,on the desiccation of forests.Combining data from the International Co-operative Program on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests(ICP Forests)with TNP data helped relate forest desiccation to climate events.Key climate signals were identified by monitoring tree defoliation changes in two permanent experimental plots,and then assessed for their influence on tree desicca-tion in the entire national park.The standardized precipita-tion evapotranspiration index(SPEI)was used for a more detailed analysis of the drought period.Despite the lack of climate data for a certain period,the SPEI index revealed a link between climate variables and the defoliation and desic-cation of forests.Furthermore,the desiccation of trees was preceded by a long drought period.Although mixed conifer-ous-deciduous forests are often considered less vulnerable to natural influences,this study suggests that forest ecosystems can become vulnerable regardless of tree species composi-tion due to multi-year droughts.These findings contribute to a better understanding of important clues for predicting pos-sible future desiccation of forests.Continuous monitoring of the state of forests and of more permanent experimental plots in national parks could provide better quality data and timely responses to stressful situations.

Characterizing extreme drought and wetness in Guangdong,China using global navigation satellite system and precipitation data

As global temperature rises,the frequency of extreme climate events,e.g.,severe droughts and floods,has increased significantly and caused severe damage over the past years.To this regard,precipitation efficiency,a crucial meteorological parameter,could provide valuable insights for a better understanding of the patterns and characteristics of these extreme events.In this study,taking Guangdong province as an exemplary region,we first obtained long-term and high-resolution historical records of precipitation efficiency by integrating the observations from a dense network of Global Navigation Satellite System(GNSS)stations with precipitation data,and then characterized the extreme drought and wetness through climate indices.We found a distinct seasonal trend in precipitation efficiency in Guangdong,with annual fluctuations ranging from 10 to 25%.Notably,precipitation efficiency is higher in proximity to the Pearl River Delta Plain and gradually decreases towards the east and west.The occurrence of anomalous peaks and valleys in precipitation efficiency generally corresponds to dry and wet conditions,respectively.A total of 9 extreme wet events and 6 dry events occurred from January 2007 to May 2022,with durations from 3 to 6 months.Our results also demonstrated that both wet and dry frequencies exhibit an increasing trend with the expansion of the time scale,and the frequency of extreme events near the Pearl River Delta Plain surpasses that of other regions.Furthermore,the propagation time from meteorological anomalies to agricultural and hydrological anomalies is about 3 months.The periodic characteristics of meteorological anomalies are identified as the primary driver for other anomalous periodic patterns.Our work unveils the long-term dynamic behavior of precipitation efficiency,as well as the characteristics of extreme drought and wetness events in the regions characterized by intricate land–atmosphere interactions.

Characteristics of Clustering Extreme Drought Events in China During 1961-2010

Based on the Multi-Scale Standardized Precipitation Index （MSPI）, extreme severe drought events in China during 1961-2010 were identified, and the seasonal, annual, and interdecadal variations of the cluster- ing extreme drought events were investigated by using the spatial point process theory. It is found that severe droughts present a trend of gradual increase as a result of the significant increase and clustering tendency of severe droughts in autumn. The periodicity analysis of the clustering extreme droughts in different seasons suggests that there is a remarkable interdecadal change in the occurrence of clustering extreme droughts in winter. Meanwhile, it is revealed that the clustering extreme drought events exhibit greatly different annual mean spatial distributions during 1961 2010, with scattered and concentrated clustering zones alternating on the decadal timescale. Furthermore, it is found that the decadal-mean spatial distributions of extreme drought events in summer are correlated out of phase with those of the rainy bands over China in the past 50 years, and a good decadal persistence exists between the autumn and winter extreme droughts, implying a salient feature of consecutive autunm-winter droughts in this 50-yr period. Compared with other regions of China, Southwest China bears the most prominent characteristic of clustering extreme droughts.

Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic conditions.However,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal heterogeneity.By integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were projected.The findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial variation.In July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,respectively.By 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by one-third.Looking towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the midstream.These findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

Tree sapling vitality and recovery following the unprecedented 2018 drought in central Europe

Background:Ongoing climate change is anticipated to increase the frequency and intensity of drought events,thereby affecting forest recovery dynamics and elevating tree mortality.The drought of 2018,with its exceptional intensity and duration,had a significant adverse impact on tree species throughout Central Europe.However,our understanding of the resistance to and recovery of young trees from drought stress remains limited.Here,we examined the recovery patterns of native deciduous tree sapling species following the 2018 drought,and explored the impact of soil depth,understory vegetation,and litter cover on this recovery.Methods:A total of 1,149 saplings of seven deciduous tree species were monitored in the understory of old-growth forests in Northern Bavaria,Central Germany.The vitality of the saplings was recorded from 2018 to 2021 on 170 plots.Results:Fagus sylvatica was the most drought-resistant species,followed by Betula pendula,Acer pseudoplatanus,Quercus spp.,Corylus avellana,Carpinus betulus,and Sorbus aucuparia.Although the drought conditions persisted one year later,all species recovered significantly from the 2018 drought,albeit with a slight decrease in vitality by 2021.In 2018,the drought exhibited a more pronounced adverse effect on saplings in deciduous forests compared to mixed and coniferous forests.Conversely,sapling recovery in coniferous and mixed forests exceeded that observed in deciduous forests in 2019.The pivotal factors influencing sapling resilience to drought were forest types,soil depth,and understory vegetation,whereas litter and forest canopy cover had a negative impact.Conclusion:Long-term responses of tree species to drought can be best discerned through continuous health monitoring.These findings demonstrate the natural regeneration potential of deciduous species in the context of climate change.Selective tree species planting,soil management practices,and promoting understory diversity should be considered when implementing adaptive management strategies to enhance forest resilience to drought events.

湖北省极端干湿事件时空变化规律及对水稻长势的影响

气候变暖背景下,极端干旱、极端湿润事件频发对作物生长带来极大威胁,研究极端干湿事件(干旱/湿润)对农业生产的影响对于地区粮食安全和水资源管理有重要意义。以湖北省水稻种植区为研究区,利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)刻画水稻生长状况,基于1990—2020年32个气象站的气象资料和标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),分析极端干湿事件时空变化规律,基于2000—2020年NDVI分析水稻长势变化及其对极端干湿事件的响应。结果表明:1990—1999年极端干旱事件7次,2000—2009年4次,2010—2020年后2次,频次有所减少;极端湿润事件1990—1999年5次,2000—2009年2次,2010—2020年5次,频次无明显变化但面积有所增加;重要生长期(6—8月份)总NDVI呈现出显著增加趋势(p=0.012),增速为0.0078/a,生长情况变化呈良好态势;整体上极端干旱、极端湿润事件对水稻长势都有负效应,NDVI与SPEI相关系数最高分别达0.418、-0.358。为应对极端干湿事件,相关部门应加强水稻重要生长期内的气象监测,提高抗旱涝能力,确保农业高产稳产。

基于日尺度旱涝急转指数的重庆市旱涝急转事件演变特征分析

为准确地反映旱涝急转事件的“突发性”与“交替性”特征,对重庆市34个气象站采用日尺度旱涝急转指数DWAAI提取1960—2018年旱涝急转事件,根据重庆市的实际情况划分不同强度旱涝急转事件对应的DWAAI数值范围,探究不同强度旱涝急转事件发生频次的时空演变特征。结果表明:重庆市旱涝急转事件以旱急转涝为主,旱急转涝事件占旱涝急转事件累计次数的85%,主要发生在4—9月,多年平均次数为22.64站次,其中,中度、重度事件占所有旱急转涝事件的11.7%、2.9%;旱急转涝事件频发于重庆市西部、中部及东北部区域,发生频次的变化趋势不显著;涝急转旱事件主要发生在7—9月,多年平均次数为5.60站次,轻度、中度事件占所有涝急转旱事件的92.9%、7.1%;涝急转旱事件在重庆市东南部、中部以及东北部区域的西部地区(如开县)频发,频发地区的发生频次总体呈增加的趋势。研究成果可为保障重庆市及相关地区水安全、加强防旱抗涝减灾工作提供理论基础。