A Refined Method for Estimating the Annual Extreme Wave Heights at A Project Site

This paper presents a refined method for estimating the annual extreme wave heights at a coastal or offshore project site on the basis of the data acquired at some nearby routine hydrographic stations. This method is based on the orthogonality principle in linear mean square estimation of stochastic processes. The error of the method is analyzed and compared with that of the conventional method. It is found that the method is able to effectively reduce the error so long as some feasible measures are adopted. A simulated test of the method has been conducted in a large scale wind wave flume. The test results are in good agreement with those given by theoretical error analysis. A scheme to implement the method is proposed on the basis of error analysis. The scheme is so designed as to reduce the estimation error as far as possible. This method is also suitable to utilizing satellite wave data for the estimation.

Long-Term Extreme Wave Characteristics in the Water Adjacent to China Based on ERA5 Reanalysis Data

Extreme waves have a profound impact on coastal infrastructure;thus,understanding the variation law of risky analysis and disaster prevention in coastal zones is necessary.This paper analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme wave heights adjacent to China from 1979 to 2018 based on the ERA5 datasets.Nonstationary extreme value analysis is undertaken in eight repre-sentative points to investigate the trends in the values of 50-and 100-year wave heights.Results show that the mean value of extreme waves is the largest in the eastern part of Taiwan Island and the smallest in the Bohai Sea from 1979 to 2018.Only the extreme wave height in the northeastern part of Taiwan Island shows a significant increase trend in the study area.Nonstationary analysis shows remarkable variations in the values of 50-and 100-year significant wave heights in eight points.Considering the annual mean change,E1,E2,S1,and S2 present an increasing trend,while S3 shows a decreasing trend.Most points for the seasonal mean change demon-strate an increasing trend in spring and winter,while other points show a decreasing trend in summer and autumn.Notably,the E1 point growth rate is large in autumn,which is related to the change in typhoon intensity and the northward movement of the typhoon path.

Estimation of Extreme Coastal Wave Heightsfrom Time Series of Wave Data

A method is presented to extrapolate a time series of wave data to extreme wave heights. The 15-year time series of deepwater wave data collected for 34 min every hour from 1988 to 2002 in the South Pacific Ocean, Australia, is analyzed to generate a set of storm peak wave heights by use of the Peaks-Over-Threshold method. The probability distribution is calculated by grouping the observod storm peak wave heights into a number of wave height classes and assigning a probability to each wave height class. The observed probability distribution is then fitted to eight different probability distribution functions and found to be fitted best by the Weibull distribution （a = 1.17）, nearly best by the FT-Ⅰ, quite well by the exponential, and poorly by the lognormal function based on the criterion of the sum of squares of the errors, SSE （H）. The effect of the threshold wave height on the estimated extreme wave height is also studied and is found insignificant in this study. The 95 % prediction intervals of the best-fit FT-Ⅰ , exponential and Weibull functions are also derived.

Estimation of Design Wave Heights for Coastal Sea Areas

Based on historical wind fields in the Bohai Sea, a sequence of annual extremal wave heights is produced with numerical wave models for deep-water and shallow water. The design wave heights with different return periods for the nearest deep-water point and for the shallow water point are estimated on the basis of P-III type, Weibull distribution, and Gumbel distribution; and the corresponding values for the shallow water point are also estimated based on the HISWA model with the input of design wave heights for the nearest deep-water point. Comparisons between design wave heights for the shallow water point estimated on the basis of both distribution functions are HISWA model show that the results from different distribution functions scatter considerably, and influenced strongly by return periods; however, the results from the HISWA model are convergent, that is, the influence of the design wave heights estimated with different distribution functions for deep water is weakened, and the estimated values decrease for long return periods and increase for short return periods. Therefore, the numerical wave model gives a more stable result in shallow water design wave estimation because of the consideration of the effect of physical processes which occur in shallow water.

Long-Period Distribution of Wave Heights and Its Application

This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.

A METHOD FOR DETERMINING EXTREME WAVE HEIGHT

A method to determine the design value of the extreme wave height is introduced in this paper. The method is, based on the theoretical distribution of wave heights or the experiential probability distribution of wave heights, to calculate the mode of the extreme wave height and the design value with good assuredness. In fitting the experiential distribution of the observed wave heights, the paper adopts the simulating function of F(x) = 1 - exp[ ?axb exp( -cxd )] and the non-linear parameter in the function is determined by the Non-Linear Least Square Method. The practical application of the method has proved that it is not only simple and convenient, but also very effective in engineering design practice.

A New Method for Determining Threshold in Using PGCEVD to Calculate Return Values of Typhoon Wave Height

In using the PGCEVD （Poisson-Gumbel Compound Extreme Value Distribution） model to calculate return values of typhoon wave height, the quantitative selection of the threshold has blocked its application. By analyzing the principle of the threshold selection of PGCEVD model and in combination of the change point statistical methods, this paper proposes a new method for quantitative calculation of the threshold in PGCEVD model. Eleven samples from five engineering points in several coastal waters of Guangdong and Hainan, China, are calculated and analyzed by using PGCEVD model and the traditional Pearson type III distribution （P-III） model, respectively. By comparing the results of the two models, it is shown that the new method of selecting the optimal threshold is feasible. PGCEVD model has more stable results than that of P-III model and can be used for the return wave height in every direction.