In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex w...In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.展开更多
Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To fig...Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.展开更多
It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the impact of mountain precipitation on inland river runoff in data scarce regions.Based on the corrected TRMM precipitation and runoff data,a variety of statistica...It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the impact of mountain precipitation on inland river runoff in data scarce regions.Based on the corrected TRMM precipitation and runoff data,a variety of statistical methods were used to identify which areas of precipitation have an important impact on runoff in the Hotan River Basin,and to evaluate the effects that precipitation changes have on runoff at low,mid,high,and extremely high altitudes of mountainous areas.The results showed that:1)From 1998 to 2015,the annual runoff showed a fluctuating upward trend with a rate of 11.21×10^8 m^3/10 a(P<0.05).Runoff in every season also had an increasing trend,with summer runoff the most significant at a rate of 6.09×10^8 m^3/10 a.2)The annual runoff and precipitation changes had certain synchronization,with a correlation coefficient of 0.45(P<0.05).Among them,the correlations between precipitation and runoff changes were highest at low and mid-altitudes,with coefficients of 0.62 and 0.55,respectively(P<0.05).3)65.95%of the regional precipitation at low altitudes and 48.34%at high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff(P<0.05),while only 38.84%and 26.58%of regional precipitation levels at mid-and extremely high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff.4)The annual precipitation change in the basin was 1%,which would cause the annual runoff to change by 0.24%.In 1998-2015,the change of annual runoff caused by precipitation change at high altitudes was largest at a rate of−6.01%;the change rates of annual runoff caused by precipitation change in the low,mid-,and extremely high altitudes were−3.66%,−3.62%,and−3.67%,respectively.The results have significant scientific guidance for water resource management in arid basins.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(2019YFA0606902)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U1903208)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(2019431).
文摘In the arid region of northwestern China(ARNC),water resources are the most critical factor restricting socioeconomic development and influencing the stability of the area’s ecological systems.The region’s complex water system and unique hydrological cycle show distinctive characteristics.Moreover,the intensified hydrological cycle and extreme climatic and hydrological events resulting from global warming have led to increased uncertainty around water resources as well as heightened conflict between water supply and water demand.All of these factors are exerting growing pressures on the socioeconomic development and vulnerable ecological environment in the region.This research evaluates the impacts of climate change on water resources,hydrological processes,agricultural system,and desert ecosystems in the ARNC,and addresses some associated risks and challenges specific to this area.The temperature is rising at a rate of 0.31C per decade during 1961–2017 and hydrological processes are being significantly influenced by changes in glaciers,snow cover,and precipitation form,especially in the rivers recharged primarily by melt water.Ecosystems are also largely influenced by climate change,with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI)of natural vegetation exhibited an increasing trend prior to 1998,and then reversed in Xinjiang while the Hexi Corridor of Gansu showed the opposite trends.Furthermore,the desert-oasis transition zone showed a reduction in area due to the warming trend and the recent rapid expansion of irrigated area.Both the warming and intensified drought are threatening agriculture security.The present study could shed light on sustainable development in this region under climate change and provides scientific basis to the construction of the“Silk Road Economic Belt”.
基金National Key Project on Basic Research(973),No.2010CB951003The National Science and Technology Project,No.2014BAD10B06
文摘Water demand increases continuously with an increasing population and economic development. As a result, the difference between water supply and demand becomes a sig- nificant issue, especially in arid regions. To figure out the utilization of water resources in the arid region of northwestern China （ARNWC）, and also to provide methodologies to predict the water use in future, three models were established in this study to calculate agricultural irri- gation, industrial and domestic water use in the ARNWC from the late 1980s to 2010. Based on river discharges in the region, the supply and demand of water resources at the river basin level were analyzed. The results indicated that agricultural irrigation demand occupies more than 90% of the total water use in the ARNWC. Total water demand increased from 31.97 km3 in the late 1980s to 48.19 km3 in 2010. Most river basins in this arid region were under me- dium and high water stress. Severe-risk river basins, such as the Shiyang river basin and the eastern part of the northern piedmont of the Tianshan Mountains, were found in this region. It was revealed that the water supply became critical from April to May, which was the season of the lowest water supply as determined by comparing monthly water consumption.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U1903208 and 41501211).
文摘It is of great significance to quantitatively assess the impact of mountain precipitation on inland river runoff in data scarce regions.Based on the corrected TRMM precipitation and runoff data,a variety of statistical methods were used to identify which areas of precipitation have an important impact on runoff in the Hotan River Basin,and to evaluate the effects that precipitation changes have on runoff at low,mid,high,and extremely high altitudes of mountainous areas.The results showed that:1)From 1998 to 2015,the annual runoff showed a fluctuating upward trend with a rate of 11.21×10^8 m^3/10 a(P<0.05).Runoff in every season also had an increasing trend,with summer runoff the most significant at a rate of 6.09×10^8 m^3/10 a.2)The annual runoff and precipitation changes had certain synchronization,with a correlation coefficient of 0.45(P<0.05).Among them,the correlations between precipitation and runoff changes were highest at low and mid-altitudes,with coefficients of 0.62 and 0.55,respectively(P<0.05).3)65.95%of the regional precipitation at low altitudes and 48.34%at high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff(P<0.05),while only 38.84%and 26.58%of regional precipitation levels at mid-and extremely high altitudes were significantly correlated with runoff.4)The annual precipitation change in the basin was 1%,which would cause the annual runoff to change by 0.24%.In 1998-2015,the change of annual runoff caused by precipitation change at high altitudes was largest at a rate of−6.01%;the change rates of annual runoff caused by precipitation change in the low,mid-,and extremely high altitudes were−3.66%,−3.62%,and−3.67%,respectively.The results have significant scientific guidance for water resource management in arid basins.
