By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "af...By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake related to coseismic static Coulomb stress changes in its aftershock zone and the areas nearby.It shows that the frequency is significantly lower than the truth in the main rupture zone,especially in the southern rupture zone,due to the decrease of stress level on the rupture plane of the main shock resulting from coseismic Coulomb stress change.The study also shows that the effect of the Coulomb stress change on the duration of aftershock activity is associated with the lower limit magnitude.The duration is about 15-16 months for aftershocks above ML4.0,and close to 60 months for aftershocks above ML3.5.In this period,the ratio of the"direct"aftershocks caused by coseismic Coulomb stress change ranges between 44.7% to48.6%,which suggests that,even in the "effective"period of coseismic Coulomb stress changes,about half of the aftershocks on the main shock rupture plane are independent of coseismic Coulomb stress changes.It is pointed out that those aftershocks may be related to the afterslip or the viscoelastic relaxation,which are time dependent cases.展开更多
This paper considers the discrete-time GeoX/G/1 queueing model with unreliable service station and multiple adaptive delayed vacations from the perspective of reliability research. Following problems will be discussed...This paper considers the discrete-time GeoX/G/1 queueing model with unreliable service station and multiple adaptive delayed vacations from the perspective of reliability research. Following problems will be discussed： 1） The probability that the server is in a ＂generalized busy period＂ at time n; 2） The probability that the service station is in failure at time n, i.e., the transient unavailability of the service station, and the steady state unavailability of the service station; 3） The expected number of service station failures during the time interval （0, hi, and the steady state failure frequency of the service station; 4） The expected number of service station breakdowns in a server＇s ＂generalized busy period＂. Finally, the authors demonstrate that some common discrete-time queueing models with unreliable service station are special cases of the model discussed in this paper.展开更多
基金funded by the special project of the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth "Five-year Plan" Period(2012BAK19B02-05-02)
文摘By the aftershock frequency estimation method based on the calculation of coseismic static Coulomb stress changes and rate-and state-dependent fault constitutive law,we calculate the frequency of "direct "aftershocks of the Wenchuan earthquake related to coseismic static Coulomb stress changes in its aftershock zone and the areas nearby.It shows that the frequency is significantly lower than the truth in the main rupture zone,especially in the southern rupture zone,due to the decrease of stress level on the rupture plane of the main shock resulting from coseismic Coulomb stress change.The study also shows that the effect of the Coulomb stress change on the duration of aftershock activity is associated with the lower limit magnitude.The duration is about 15-16 months for aftershocks above ML4.0,and close to 60 months for aftershocks above ML3.5.In this period,the ratio of the"direct"aftershocks caused by coseismic Coulomb stress change ranges between 44.7% to48.6%,which suggests that,even in the "effective"period of coseismic Coulomb stress changes,about half of the aftershocks on the main shock rupture plane are independent of coseismic Coulomb stress changes.It is pointed out that those aftershocks may be related to the afterslip or the viscoelastic relaxation,which are time dependent cases.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 71171138,70871084the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No.200806360001
文摘This paper considers the discrete-time GeoX/G/1 queueing model with unreliable service station and multiple adaptive delayed vacations from the perspective of reliability research. Following problems will be discussed： 1） The probability that the server is in a ＂generalized busy period＂ at time n; 2） The probability that the service station is in failure at time n, i.e., the transient unavailability of the service station, and the steady state unavailability of the service station; 3） The expected number of service station failures during the time interval （0, hi, and the steady state failure frequency of the service station; 4） The expected number of service station breakdowns in a server＇s ＂generalized busy period＂. Finally, the authors demonstrate that some common discrete-time queueing models with unreliable service station are special cases of the model discussed in this paper.
