Moment-independence global sensitivity analysis for the system with fuzzy failure state and its Kriging method

For the system with the fuzzy failure state, the effects of the input random variables and the fuzzy failure state on the fuzzy probability of failure for the structural system are studied, and the moment-independence global sensitivity analysis（GSA） model is proposed to quantitatively measure these effects. According to the fuzzy random theory, the fuzzy failure state is transformed into an equivalent new random variable for the system, and the complementary function of the membership function of the fuzzy failure state is defined as the cumulative distribution function（CDF） of the new random variable. After introducing the new random variable, the equivalent performance function of the original problem is built. The difference between the unconditional fuzzy probability of failure and conditional fuzzy probability of failure is defined as the moment-independent GSA index. In order to solve the proposed GSA index efficiently, the Kriging-based algorithm is developed to estimate the defined moment-independence GSA index. Two engineering examples are employed to verify the feasibility and rationality of the presented GSA model, and the advantages of the developed Kriging method are also illustrated.

Good Governance and Economic Growth:A Contribution to the Institutional Debate about State Failure in Middle East and North Africa

Several econometric studies(Kauffman,Knack)􀄸tested the relationship between good governance in the sense of“market-enhancing governance”(stimulus institutions market)showing a positive relationship between good governance and economic growth.However,a good governance policy allows developing countries to achieve minimum economic growth and political reforms in order to reach a level of development similar to that of industrialized countries?In this article,we focus on the definition and the development on the concept of good governance by the World Bank and the criticism formulated by Mushtaq Khan􀄹,who reconstructed the notion of governance in a broader sense,taking into account the capacity of states to drive structural change in the institutional,political,economic and social fields,in order to ensure long-term economic growth.Our contribution is to examine the concept of good governance and the failure of states taking into account the level of development and governance capacity based on a structure and distribution of political power that evolves over time and may or may not be positive for growth.The assumption we make here is that the so-called good governance policies are relevant only if countries reach an adequate level of economic and social development that enable institutions of good governance to boost growth.

Good Governance and Growth in Emerging Countries：A Critical Review

Numbers of economists of development consider that good governance, defined as the quality management and orientation of development policies has a positive influence on economic performance. The question is what content the literature gives to the concept of governance. According to the World Bank, good governance is evaluated by the implementation capacity of governance principles of a country, providing a framework for market development and economic growth. Empirical studies tested the relationship between good governance in the sense of “market-enhancing governance” （stimulus institutions market） and showed a positive relationship between good governance and economic growth. However, a good governance policy needs for developing countries to achieve minimum economic growth and political reforms in order to reach a level of development similar to that of industrialized countries. We focus on good governance definition made by the World Bank and criticism formulated by Mushtaq Khan, who reconstructed the notion of Governance Capabilities, taking into account the capacity of states to drive structural change in institutional, political, economic, and social fields, in order to ensure long-term economic growth. Our goal is to use a new concept of governance in order to build a new political economy approach more suitable for emerging countries.

Study on triaxial test method and failure criterion of asphalt mixture

Asphalt mixture is the most widely used pavement material all over the world. In China, more than 90% of service expressways are asphalt pavement. However, current asphalt pavement design method still has irrationality. Even though maximum tensile stress theory is used as failure criterion, pavement structure under the effects of wheel load is in three-dimensional complex stress state. Obviously, one-dimensional strength theory cannot reflect the failure characteristics and the resistance of pavement structure. So it is necessary to study the failure criterion of asphalt mixture under three-dimensional com- plex stress state. Due to limitations of test equipment, there are almost no studies in related area. Under this background, this paper develops a new triaxial test method, ac- cording to the investigation of strength characteristics of asphalt mixture under complex stress state through plane isobaric/axial tensile test, plane isobaric/axial compression test, plane tensile and compression/axial tensile test, to reveal the general rules of asphalt mixture＇s strength failure. The failure mode is divided into three types： tensile failure, shear failure and rheological failure. The tensile meridian and compression meridian in the stress space and strength envelope in the π plane where hydrostatic pressure is greater than zero are obtained, and the failure criterion of asphalt mixture under complex stress state is established, providing theoretical method and scientific basis for structure design as well as strength check of asphalt pavement under three-dimensional stress state.